CHANGES IN CERRADO LAND USE Carlos A Klink University of Brasilia, Brazil
Dec 21, 2015
RR AP
AMPA
AC ROMT TO
MACE
RN
PB
PE
ALSE
PI
BA
GO
DF
MGES
RJSP
MS
PR
SC
RS
Atlantic Atlantic ForestForest
CaatingCaatingaa
CaatingCaatingaaAmazoniaAmazoniaAmazoniaAmazonia
PantanalPantanal GrasslanGrasslandd
BiomesBiomesBiomesBiomes
CerradoCerradoCerradoCerrado
CERRADO SAVANNAS:
• 2,000,000 Km2 (25% of contiguous USA)
• 10,000 Plant Species
•One of the World’s 25 “hotspots”
•RAINFALLSEASONALITY
•FIRE
•SUBSTRATE•HUMAN ACTION
Most biomass is underground
DETERMINANTS
CERRADO IS A TROPICAL SAVANNA
N aturalF ire
H um an Activ itiesAgriculture, Pastureland,
M ining , C harcoa l,D am ns, R oads
D IR EC T C AUSES
Public Po liciesR egional
andN ationa l Leve ls
Econom ic IncentivesSubsidies
Externa l M arkets
Science & T echnologySoil science
P lant geneticsM ach inery
G overnanceLand tenureIm m igration
O thersC lim ate change
IN DIR EC T CAUSES
D R IV IN G FO R C ES O F C ER R AD O LAN D U SE
CONSEQUENCES:
EXTENSION OF CHANGE (x 1,000 km2)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
1970 1985 1995 2000
Planted Pastures
Cash Crops
Bare Soil
0
10
20
30
40
50
1970 1975 1985 1996 2000
Are
a T
rans
form
ed (%
) Cerrado Savanna
Amazon Forest
CONSEQUENCES: RATE OF CHANGE
Woody Savanna Natural Grassland
ET: 2.8-4.8 mm/d
8m
ET: 1.2-1.8 mm/d
4m
PAWPAW
WET: 721 mm
DRY: 229 mm
70% of total water used in DRY season comes from below 2 m
WET: 402 mm
DRY: 71 mm
MODELLING Planted Pastures:
• 10% reduction PP
• 9% reduction ET
• Dry spells during growth season
50% of total water used in
DRY
ALTERATION OF WATER
CYCLE
Planted Pastures African grasses
Pasture Degradation
New Planted Pastures
FIRE
Biological Invasion
African Grasses modify water cycle, fire regime & reduce
biodiversity
Carbon Imbalances
•Large C Stock & Sink
•Becomes Source when Degraded
ECOLOGICAL FEEDBACKS
ECONOMICAL FEEDBACK
GLOBAL SCALE
“AGRONEGÓCIOS: O BRASIL QUE
ASSUSTA BUSH”
( Primeira Leitura, April/2002)
0
100
200
MT ARG EUA
Production Costs (US$/ha)
• NEW ECOSYSTEMS (“Emerging Ecosystems”) that have been formed brought both positive (economical) and negative (environmental) effects;
• KNOWLEDGE: Economical benefits are well documented, while Environmental impacts are poorly understood;
• THIS IMBALANCE POSES GREAT DIFFICULTIES TO INFLUENCE LAND-USE & CONSERVATION POLICIES
BACK TO THE FUTURE