Change and the Heartland

7/31/2019 Change and the Heartland

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Change and

the HeartlandBig issues, bite-size lessons

How Climate ChangeWill Affect the Midwest

ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE INST ITUTE


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How Climate Change

Will Affect the MidwestChange and

the HeartlandBig issues, bite-sized lessons

How Will All That Extra C02 Affect Crops?

19 Researchers

17 Topics

Dr. Lisa Ainsworth and Kelly Gillespie:

Corn, Beans andCO2Dr. Jeff Brawn :Bird Population Shifts

Dr. Clark Bullard :Habitat Fragmentation

Dr. Brian Deal and Robert Boyer:

Climate Savvy Urban Planning

Dr. Wes Jarrell : Climate andFood Security

Dr. Madhu Khanna : The Economics of Miscanthus

Dr. Mindy Mallory :Emissions Offsets and Uncertainty

Dr. John Marlin : Climate Change and Native Pollinators

Dr. Steffen Meller : Corn Ethanol vs Gasoline

Dr. Richard Mulvaney, Dr. Saeed Khan, Dr. Tim Ellswort

Fertilizer and Soil Carbon

Dr. Thomas Overbye : The Future of Power Generation

Dr. Robert Pahre :Free Market Land Management

Dr. Jrgen Scheffran : Climate Change and Global Securi

Dr. Cory Suski : Climate Change and Aquatic Habitats

Dr. Michelle Wander and Dr. Carmen Ugarte:

Climate Friendly Cropping Practices

Dr. Donald Wuebbles : Climate Projection for 2050

hange and the Heartland was developed by the University of Illinois Agroecology and Sustain-

ble Agriculture Program for The Environmental Change Institute at Illinois. asap.sustainability.iuc.edu : eci.illinois.edu

Editor: Michelle Wander mwander@illinois.

Editor: John E. [email protected]: Crystal Bartanen and John E. Ma

Researchers at the University of Illinois prepared ac-

cessible articles about how environmental change may

impact the Midwest. The brief articles are paired with

raphics and presented as approachable, digestible front-and-

ack color handouts. We need your help getting these articles

ut to the public. Either as PDFs or prints. Heres why its worth

he effort.

Content Based on Sound Science

very day, people are bombarded with misinformation about

nvironmental change. Often, this misinformation is more ac-

essible and better presented than the hard science that should

e guiding policy. Change and the Heartland makes that science

ccessible and relates current ideas and terminology to issues

mportant to the public.

Timely Stories Tackle Vital Issues While Contextualizing

Environmental Change Basics

y discussing issues that directly affect every day life,

Change and the Heartland speaks to a broad audience. Con-

extualizing environmental change concepts makes the material

more useful, compelling and teachable.

Bright, Layered Design Reinforces Key Concepts

Change and the Heartland uses popped headers, graphics and

alculated repetition to reinforce key concepts. Readers are re-

warded at all levels of effort, from a cursory skimming to a deepeading. Dedicated readers will nish with an understanding of

ssential environmental change concepts and vocabulary.

oin Illinois Environmental Change Institute in Distribut-

ng This Work

f you can contribute to this effort or a second series please

ontact Editor Dr. Michelle Wander: [email protected]


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Corn and Beans

Changing the Air They Eat

How Climate Change

Will Affect the Midwest

Issue 1:1 ref: http://hdl.handle.net/2142

Change and


Key Term

Carbon Fertilization

A common trick in greenhouses is to give

plants extra carbon dioxide. Some plants can use

that extra CO2 to produce extra food and growfaster. This is known as carbon fertilization.

Now, as cars, factories, and powerplants pump

CO2 into the atmosphere of greenhouse Earth,

CO2 is fertilizing plants on a global scale.

CO2 fertilization doesnt affect all plants

equally. In general, this global increase in CO2will give a boost to trees and shrubs, but not to

some grasses. For crops, CO2 fertilization may

boost soybean yields, but it will probably not af-

fect corn yields.

Imagine that the atmosphere is a buffet for plants, one that

provides the carbon dioxide (CO2) they use to produce sug-

ars. What if every day that buffet served up a little bit more

CO2 for plants to eat? Would the plants grow faster, become

arger? Or is it possible for plants to overeat or overheat?

A unique experiment at the University of Illinois is answer-

ng this question. The Soybean Free-Air Gas Concentration

Enrichment experiment (SoyFACEsoyface.illinois.edu) isgrowing soybeans and corn at concentrations of CO2 expected

or the year 2050.

The soybeans and corn are grown according to standard ag-

icultural practices and are not isolated from other environmen-

al factors such as rainfall, sunlight, and insects.

Soybean Yields May Increase 15%

SoyFace has provided the unprecedented ability to investi-

gate yield responses of soybean and corn grown at high CO2 un-

der real field-scale conditions. The results so far have been clear

and consistent: elevated CO2 at levels anticipated for 2050 im-

proves soybean yields by 15% and has no effect on corn yields.

Both Corn and Soybeans May Be More Drought-Resistant

Both crops have improved soil moisture when grown at ele-

vated CO2, suggesting that they might be more drought-tolerant

n the future.

ncreased Ozone and Pests May Negate CO2

Benefits

The SoyFACE story about changing climate is not complete-

y rosy. An unexpected result from the experiment done by Evan

DeLucias laboratory is that plants grown in eleva

CO2 are preferred by insects. Beetles eat more leav

live longer, and have more offspring when feeding

leaves grown at high CO2.

This is true for two reasons. Soybeans grown at

vated CO2 have higher sugar content, and they s

down a key natural insect defense pathway. So not o

are insects attracted to the tastier leaves, it appears t

the leaves dont put up a fight while theyre chewed

In addition to rising CO2, ozone (O3) concentions at the ground level are increasing, and SoyFA

is studying this change. Ozone at ground level is g

erated when smog reacts with sunlight. Unfortunat

How Will All That Extra C02 Affect Crops?


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zone does not always form where the smog is produced.

Smog can travel hundreds of miles before it reacts with

unlight, which effectively increases the concentration of

zone in rural areas, including much of the midwestern

orn belt.

Ozone will react with any living tissue to cause oxida-

ive damage and, in plants, ozone decreases photosynthetic

arbon gain.n the SoyFACE experiment, elevated ozone con-

entrations have caused an average 17% reduction in

oybean seed yield. Therefore, while future elevated CO2evels alone might increase yield, increased herbivory and

levated levels of atmospheric ozone will decrease yield

nd possibly negate benefits derived from rising CO2

Why Does Extra Carbon Dioxide Improve Yields

or Beans But Not Corn?

The impact of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide on plantnd crop growth and production has been a major research

nterest around the world because plants use atmospheric

CO2 to build the carbon-based molecules that humans and

ll other animals rely on for growth. Additionally, climate

hange factors such as rising temperature and increasing

drought stress will reduce future crop yields, while rising

CO2 has been considered a potential silver lining of global

limate change.

ow different crops respond to rising 2 depends on

he process of photosynthesis. Plants convert CO and wa-

er into sugar molecules and oxygen in the presence of light.

Our worlds entire food web depends on photosynthesis for

he basic building blocks of life.

This is why plant physiological response to climate

hange is a focus of research. For many plants, including

oybeans (referred to as C3 plants), the first step in

hotosynthetic carbon fixation involves an enzyme called

Rubisco (ribulose 1,5 carboxylase/oxygenase). Corn and

many other grasses (called C4 plants) rely on a different

nzyme (phosphoenolpyruvate carboxylase) to take up

CO2 before releasing it in specialized cells for uptake byRubisco.

ven though Rubisco is the most abundant enzyme on

arth, it is currently running under capacity in C3 plants be-

ause atmospheric CO2 levels are not high enough to maxi-

mize the rate at which R can convert CO2. Increasing the

upply of CO2 to C3 plants will increase the rate of Rubis-

os reaction and the subsequent production of sugars.

Blue: Extra CO2 boosted soybean yields 15%

Red: Extra ozone decreased soybean yields 17%

CO2 fertilization did not significantly boost corn yield

Ozone Negates C02 Benets

Editors: Michelle Wander (mwander@illinoi

John E. Marlin ([email protected]

Designers: John E. Marlin, Crystal BartanenCopyeditor: Molly Bentsen

opyright 2010, University of Illinois Board of Trustees. Change and the Heartland was

eveloped for the Environmental Change Institute by the Agroecology and Sustainable Agriculture

rogram, in the College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences at the University ofinois at Urbana-Champaign. To read the rest of the series, visit eci.ill inois.edu.

In C4 plants, CO2 is concentrated in specialized c

that contain Rubisco. This concentration mechan

means that rising atmospheric CO2 wont directly ben

C4 photosynthesis. Thus, C4 crops such as corn and

ghum are predicted to be less responsive to rising CO2 t

C3 crops, which include wheat and soybean.

Why Does Extra CO2 Increase Drought Resistance?

Increased access to CO2 can have a significant influe

on drought tolerance in both C3 and C4 crops. Leaf

faces in both types of plant are covered in tiny pores, ca

stomata, which open and close to allow CO2 to diffuse

the leaf.

When these pores are open, water vapor escapes. Pla

grown with elevated CO2 do not need to open their stom

as much to satisfy CO2 needs, so less water is lost. T

increases whole-plant water use efficiency and allows b

C3 and C4 crops to maintain higher photosynthetic r

during times of drought.

About the Researchers

Dr. Lisa Ainsworth is an assistant professor of plant biol

and adjunct in crop sciences and with the USDA-ARS at

University of Illinois.

Kelly Gillespie is a PhD candidate in physiological and

lecular plant biology working under Dr. Ainsworth.



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How Climate Change


Birds Cope

Key Term

Indicator Species

An indicator species is any biological species who

presence, absence, or abundance can tell you somethi

about its environment. Biologists use indicator spec

to determine ecosystem or environmental integrity. Birhave been used as bioindicators because their ecolo

is well understood and the relationships between th

growth and development and food supply are tigh

linked. Birds feed at all levels of the ecological pyram

and are relatively easy to observe. Earlier breeding a

brooding of cardinals is an indication of increased fo

supplies caused by climate changeinduced warming.

with Environmental Change

How climate change will affect birds is a complicated

opic, owing to the diversity of bird species. In Illinois

alone, there are well over 400 species recorded, and this

ist includes species associated with forests, oak savannas, grass-

ands, shrublands, aquatic ecosystems, and urban environments.

oreover, there are species that live in Illinois all year

ound, some that are here only in the winter, and many that

migrate here to breed. The migrants include those that travelomparatively short distances, often arriving from the southern

U.S., and the long-distance neotropical migrants that fly great

istances from Central or South America. With all these species

nd their diverse lifestyles, there are local issues regarding cli-

mate change and other phenomena that are far more extensive

n geographic scope.

Climate Change May Affect Food Availability Bird

Migration Routes Faster Than Birds Can Adapt

One feature common to all bird species is that over evolution-ry time, birds of northern or temperate latitudes have adapted

o seasonal changes in food availability and temperature. As a

esult, birds time their annual cycles of breeding and migration

o match their need for resources with availability of resources.

For example, birds time nesting so that food (mainly arthropods)

will be at peak availability when they are feeding their young.

Numerous studies have shown that rapid climate change can

ead to mismatches in timing between peak resource availabil-

ty and bird activity. For many species, the physiological chang-

s that prepare birds to breed or migrate are induced partly by

redictable changes in day length from winter to spring. Theiming of these events can therefore be rather inflexible. The

nset of spring and increases in temperature may be advanced

with climate change, however, and this could affect when food

becomes available for birds. There is thus signifi

potential for birds to mistime their activities and

result to suffer decreases in survival, breeding succor both.

The complicated annual cycle of long-distance

grants renders them especially vulnerable to temp

mismatching of resource need and availability. In

linois, this group comprises dozens of species and

cludes most of the warblers, vireos, orioles, thrus

and swallows. These species depart from their win

ing grounds with no information about environme

conditions in the north.

Some simply pass through our region for a

weeks on their way to more northern breeding groubut many settle and breed in Illinois. Like all bi

migrants need ample food when they are breed

but they have added needs during migration, wh

Change and


Issue 1:2 http://hdl.handle.net/2142

How Will Climate Change Affect Birds?


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s very energetically expensive. The availability of food

n migratory stopover sites is therefore deemed critical

or long-distance migrants. Birds time their migration

o synchronize their arrival at such sites with the spring

mergence of insects, especially caterpillars. The timing

f bud break, leaf growth, and insect emergence responds

o variation in spring temperature and precipitation

warmer usually means earlier. Birds migrating fromouthern regions may arrive when they cannot exploit peak

bundances of arthropods. Less food means that birds must

xtend stopover times until they can get refueled.

Studies done at the University of Illinois clearly demon-

trate the potential of problems for migratory birds. Dr. Paul

Strode examined long-term trends in the timing of when

migratory birds arrive in the Midwest, and he found that the

vailability of food for migrating birds is changing rapidly.

Birds have to spend more time refueling at southern stop-

ver sites, which has led to a nearly 3-week decrease in the

window of time they have to reach their breeding grounds.

Climate Change May Put Bird Breeding Times

Out of Sync with Food Availability

igration is energetically costly, but no bird activity is

more demanding than breeding. Breeding too early or too

ate with respect to food could lead to significant population

declines. Studies from Illinois are needed on this important

opic, but work in the agricultural landscapes of Europe in-

dicates that certain species can adjust the timing of their

reeding effort, but others suffer reduced breeding successnd lower survival rates of adults. Extrapolating to near-

erm changes predicted under even the most optimistic cli-

mate models suggests that many insect-eating birds will ex-

erience important differences between the time when they

need food and the time when it is most plentiful.

Climate-Induced Habitat Shifts Could Significantly

Affect Bird Distribution Throughout the Midwest

A changing climate will also change the distributions

nd geographic ranges of many terrestrial ecosystems. Cer-

ain plant species will become more common in Illinois,

ome will be unaffected, and others will become rare or

ocally extinct. Habitat for birds will be created or lost,

nd this will certainly lead to changes in the distribution of

irds in the region. Long-term studies in Illinois indicate

hat the distributions of, for example, certain forest birds

re surprisingly fluid and rapid. Northern cardinals, for one,

In the 1900s and 1950s, sci-

entists from the Illinois Natural

History Survey systematically

surveyed birds across Illinois.Over the last three years we re-

peated this survey. One of the in-

teresting results is that 16 of the

82 species for which we have

sufficient data to conduct analy-

ses have expanded their ranges.

Of these species, 8 went north

and 8 went south. A common

trait among many of those spe-

cies was their frequent use of ur-

ban habitats. Additionally, 73%

of resident species (birds that do

not migrate south in winter) thatwere not present statewide in the

1900s expanded their range by

the 2000s. In contrast, only 18%

of migratory birds expanded their range.

Changes in land use have had the largest impact on species rang

and this trend is likely to continue. The three resident species th

have not expanded their ranges are likely limited by cold winte

and global climate change is expected to allow these species

expand north. The greatest concern for the future is associated w

migratory birds. These species are often of conservation conce

and appear to be less adaptable to changes in land use and clima

It will be important to preserve the habitats they require and devel

strategies that could help them adapt to the changing environme

8species

expanding

south 8species

expanding

north

Dr. Mike Ward, visiting assistant professor in the Departm

of Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences at

University of Illinois

Land Use and Climate Changes Impact Bir

Populations, Especially Migratory Birds








factors likely contribute to these shifts, but there is li

doubt that long-term climate change will add to signific

changes in where we find birds in our state.

Monitoring the status of bird populations and their h

tats will be essential as climate-induced changes deve

With this information, biologists will be better able to mage habitats and landscapes to preserve the avifauna of

region.

About the Researcher

Dr. Jeff Brawn is a professor and head of the Departmen

Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences at the Uni

sity of Illinois.


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How Climate Change


Escape Routes

for Wildlife As Habitats Heat UpIssue 1:3 ref: http://hdl.handle.net/2142/

Can Our Wildlife Shift Along with the Climate?

Adaptation is a strategy undertaken to prevent o

cope with damage from climate change. Biocorridor

are an important example of climate change adap

tation. They allow plants and animals to respond tclimate shifts by migrating in search of survivabl

conditions. There are three different kinds of bioco

ridors: line corridors, strip corridors, and habitat cor

ridors. Line corridors allow for movement, but th

width is too thin for interior species to live there. Stri

corridors are wide enough to allow interior species t

live and thrive. Habitat corridors are big enough fo

reproduction to occur.

Key Term

Adaptation

very nation on earth is debating what to do about global

warming: how to stop it, and how to adapt to the warm-

ing thats already under way. Even the most aggressive

nd costly proposals to stop global warming will leave us with a

warmer world in 2100. If we do nothing, Illinoiss climate will

esemble that of east Texas. The effects of climate on agricul-

ure and industry have received great attention, while its influ-

nces on wildlife and habitat have been largely ignored.

llinois Once Had Unbroken Corridors of Habitat for

Species to Move Along as Climate Changed

Our pioneer ancestors settled into an Illinois ecosystem that

ad survived more gradual climate changes over millennia. The

nbroken corridors of riparian forests and wetlands that lined the

iver valleys allowed wildlife and their food supplies to adapt and

migrate. Over time, however, these corridors were severed, as the

USDA and the Army Corps of Engineers made bottomlands safe

or row crops by draining lands and modifying drainage.

Species May Be Unable to Adapt to Climate Change

hat will happen to the wildlife and wildflowers and trees

hat are trapped in these tiny, fragmented, and isolated habi-

ats across Illinois? Some kinds of birds and animals can move

heir homes 500 miles in a century, but what about the whole

ood chain of animals and plants on which they depend? Can

hese healthy ecosystems move intact across miles of cropland

miles a year60 feet a day, every single day? If they cannot,

hey will perish as a result of global warming.ven the most optimistic scenarios for reducing greenhouse

as emissions will not significantly improve this bleak outlook

or wildlife. Due to the accumulated emissions and inertia in the

system, Illinoiss climate would still move about

miles per centuryonly 30 feet a day instead of

For most plants and animals, that too is impossiblnegotiate without contiguous corridors in which s

cies can migrate.

Changing Land Management Could Create

Contiguous NorthSouth Migration Corridors

So as we change the way we manage agricult

land, we must mitigate some of the habitat fragmen

tion by providing contiguous northsouth migrat

corridors that will minimize species extinctions and p

tect the biodiversity that is our natural heritage. To complish this we need to change the policy framew

and for that we need a shared vision of a landscape

citizens embrace. The costs need not be prohibitive.

Change and



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Siting Corridors Near Rivers Could Provide Flood

Control and Spawning Ground for Commercial

reshwater Fish

The most cost-effective locations for migration corri-

dors are along rivers, where land is least costly and where

most of our remaining biodiversity exists. As national en-

rgy policies make production of biofuels more attractivehan row crops, many river bottoms could be converted to

roduction of woody biomass for cellulosic ethanol.

lanting flood-tolerant species that are also good wild-

ife habitat could allow levees to be breached to reconnect

he Illinois and Mississippi Rivers with their floodplains.

Then federal funds otherwise needed to raise levees in St.

Louis and New Orleans could subsidize floodplain forests

hat could not only store spring floodwaters, but also pro-

ide spawning habitat to revive the commercial freshwater

fishing industry.

Siting Along Small Rivers and Streams Decreases

armland But Provides Recreational and Ecological

Benefits

Along smaller rivers and headwater streams the

hallenge is greater, because the land is more valuable. The

hreat is greater, too: as food and biofuel compete for finite

and, fencerow-to-fencerow farming is expanding from

treambank to streambank.

ere new policies might aim to offset the cost of lost

gricultural production by restoring natural habitats alongorridors in a way that provides additional benefits, such as

ublic access for fishing, walking, cycling, and other out-

door recreation. These corridors could extend back a couple

undred yards from small rivers, while even the smallest

ributary streams could be lined with narrow strips of na-

ive trees or grasses. Some states already prohibit grazing

nd logging near rivers and streams to protect water quality

nd biodiversity.

Siting Corridors Along Highways Could Also Promote

Migration

Siting corridors along highways could also be part of the

olution. Currently, the sheer scale of interconnected high-

ways blocks migration corridors for some kinds of animals

xcept where drainage culverts allow passage. On the other

and, if paired with habitat, this scale and connectivity can

e an advantage, providing opportunities for some kinds

Editors: Michelle Wander (mwander@illinoiJohn E. Marlin ([email protected]

Designers: John E. Marlin, Crystal Bartanen

Copyeditor: Molly Bentsen

opyright 2010, University of Illinois Board of Trustees. Change and the Heartland waseveloped for the Environmental Change Institute by the Agroecology and Sustainable Agriculture

rogram, in the College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences at the University of

inois at Urbana-Champaign. To read the rest of the series, visit eci.ill inois.edu.


plant and insect species to migrate. Illinois has already

gun to plant prairie grasses along some state and inters

highways to promote that vital migration.

Sound Policy Makes Successful Corridors

Its not too late to start discussing visions like this,

bating their costs and benefits and how they will be sha

If we change the policy framework and do it right, we

have a lot to gain. If we fail to act, we stand to lose wh

left of Illinoiss natural heritage.


Clark Bullard is a research professor in the Departmen

Mechanical Science and Engineering at the University of Illin

Streambank-to-Streambank Planting

Destroys Habitat Corridor

Near Spoon River

2005

2003


11/40

Miscanthus

Economics of a Tall Grass

How Climate Change



Can Tall Grass Miscanthus Replace Coal?

When you burn Miscanthus it releases a lot o

CO2, just like coal does. So why does it have a small

er carbon footprint? The answer lies in the carbons

origin. The carbon in coal comes from deep within

the Earth. When we release it into the atmosphere, iincreases the overall amount thats up there.

The carbon in Miscanthus was pulled from the

atmosphere the same year the plant grew. When we

burn Miscanthus were just recycling carbon the plan

took up through photosynthesis. Carbon thats already

circulating in the atmosphere is known as contempo

rary carbon and is not included in carbon accounting

The ideal power plant would release no carbon a

all. But if you have to choose between releasing an

cient carbon from coal and zero-cycle carbon from

plants, contemporary carbon is the better choice.

Theres been a lot of talk about the benefits of growing the

tall grass Miscanthus on midwestern farms. It requiresfew chemical inputs, sequesters carbon, and can be

urned as renewable energy in coal power plants. Some think

Miscanthus could join corn and beans as a staple crop. But is itrofitable? Would Miscanthus help farmers earn enough money

o keep their farms?

Its a complicated question, but agricultural economists athe University of Illinois have been crunching the numbers. The

hort answer is no. Coal is cheap, and it could cost twice asmuch to produce the same energy with Miscanthus. The longnswer is that there are no short answers.

Coal is cheap, but it has hidden costs. Miscanthus is expen-

ive, but it has hidden benefits. To capture those benefits, the

tate or federal government might use policies to reward farm-rs who grow Miscanthus and power plants that burn it.

Madhu Khanna and her colleagues have studied the po-ential for Miscanthus in Illinois. The research, funded by the

Dudley Smith Initiative and the Illinois Council on Food andAgricultural Research, examines different ways that the gov-rnment might support Miscanthus, the costs of subsidizing it,nd how farmers might respond to these subsidies.

Miscanthus Is Relatively Expensive But Better for Climate

Right now you need to burn $1.12 worth of coal to producegigajoule of energy in Illinois. It would cost at least $2.30 to

et that same energy by burning Miscanthus.But coal has a relatively large carbon footprint. If you sub-

titute Miscanthus for coal, the footprint is much smaller. Thiss because burning Miscanthus to produce 1 gigajoule of energy

mits a much smaller quantity of carbon emissions than burn-ng coal. Moreover, Miscanthus emits contemporary carbon,

Key Term

Contemporary Carbon

whereas coal emits carbon that has been long sequtered underground. There are a number of ways tstate and federal governments can convince powplants to make this climate-savvy substitution.

Billion-Dollar Subsidy Mitigates 11% of

Coal Power Plant Emissions

What if you wanted 5% of Illinois energy to co

from Miscanthus? This would require a $1 billsubsidy over 15 years (based on 2003 prices), red

CO2 emissions from coal power plants by 11% o

15 years, and cause 1.7% of Illinois cropland to

Change and



12/40


witched to Miscanthus. If you wanted 13% of Illinois en-rgy to come from Miscanthus, you would need to spend

3.7 billion in subsidies over 15 years and would reducemissions from coal plants by 20%.

Government Support Could Be Mandates, Carbon

Tax, or Cap-and-Trade

Instead of subsidizing the use of bioenergy, the govern-ment could establish other policies to encourage the use ofiomass by power plants. For example, it could mandatehat power plants get 5% of their energy from biomass. This

would create demand for Miscanthus and raise the pricehat power plants would be willing to pay for it, thereby

reating incentives for farmers to grow it.

Alternatively, CO2 emissions could be taxed, whichwould increase the cost of carbon-intensive coal, makingMiscanthus an attractive option for power plants.

Policies could also set caps for emissions from coalower plants and create incentives for plants to obtain trad-

ble carbon credits. Credits could be earned by replacingome portion of coal with biomass, which would increase

he willingness of power plants to buy CO2-mitigating Mis-anthus even if it is more expensive than coal. Their will-ngness would increase with the value of their credits.

Khannas study found that if the goal of these policies

s mitigating CO2 emissions through firing Miscanthus inoal power plants, the carbon tax or a cap-and-trade policy

would be the most cost-effective way to support the pro-

uction and use of this crop.No matter which policy the government chooses, Khan-

as research can project where Miscanthus production isikely to be viable in Illinois given its yields and costs.

Miscanthus Mostly in South, Close to Power Plants

For starters, more Miscanthus will be grown in southern Il-inois than northern. Miscanthus likes warm weather. It yields

more in the south, and that would make it more competitive

gainst coal. Miscanthus would also be grown close to coal

lants, probably within 35 miles, because transporting it lon-er distances increases both costs and its carbon footprint.

Coal Prices, Climate Shifts, and Innovation Could

Affect Miscanthus Adoption

A few things could affect these results. If the cost ofoal goes up, the government wont need to support Mis-

With $1 billion in government support, Miscanthus could

occupy 1.7% of Illinoiss productive acreage, mostly in the

south. That acreage could generate 5% of the states electric-

ity and reduce emissions from coal power plants by 11%.

Miscanthus Mostly in

Southern Illinois







canthus as much. And if breeding or technology increa

the yield of Miscanthus, it will be more competitive wcoal. Also, coal power plants might learn how to burn Mcanthus in higher proportions with coal. Coal power plcan only co-fire biomass with coal in blends of 5% to 2

As the blend rate increased, the demand for Miscantwould increase. And, of course, crop prices could af

these scenarios. If corn production became highly pro

able, farmers would be less willing to make the switcMiscanthus.

Growing Miscanthus for electricity production in nois is probably not viable without government supp

If that support comes, Miscanthus will be grown morsouthern regions and close to power plants, and it willquire at least $1 billion of subsidy over 15 years.


Dr. Madhu Khanna is a professor in the Department of A

cultural and Consumer Economics and the Energy Bioscien

Institute, Institute of Genomic Biology.


13/40

How Climate Change


Cities Plan

for a Changing Climate http://hdl.handle.net/2

Will Urban Planning Change with the Climate?

As our cities expand, so do the ills that accompany un-

planned growth and dependence on automobiles. These

hidden costs have begun to reveal themselves in the

orm of auto congestion, productivity losses, dwindling mu-

icipal budgets (and consequently higher taxes), respiratory

llnesses, rising gasoline prices, accident deaths, obesity, and

limate change.

Climate Change Hastened by GrowBuildDrive Cycle of

Conventional Urban Planning

The connection between land use and climate change thus

rows unfortunately apparent as we destroy increasingly more

atural carbon sinks (prairie, wetlands, and forest) to clear land

or constructing more buildings (that we burn fossil fuels to

eat, cool, and power) to which we must drive (burning more

ossil fuels).

Reversing this unsustainable growbuilddrive cycle will

equire fundamental changes in the way our communities plan

nd operate.

But will we recognize a better alternative when we see one?

Can we be sure that the decisions we make today dont imperil

ur childrens ability to make decisions in the future? Can we

etermine the future effects that our complex and ever-evolving

rban areas will have on valued existing services?

Yes, we can, but doing so requires our being able to . . .

Forecast potential future changes to our cities

Identify important existing resources and servicesUnderstand how the potential future changes will affect

these resources and services

Key Term

Scenario Planning

Scenario planning is a method of strategic plan

ning that some organizations use to make flexible

long-term plans. Typically this technique relies on

systems thinking to develop plausible scenarios o

story lines that describe causal relationships between

factors of concern.

Scenarios are designed so that they are both pos

sible and uncomfortable. The goal is to help commu

nities anticipate hidden weaknesses and inflexibilitie

in organizations along with deficiencies in policy o

infrastructure.

Considering Multiple Alternative Scenarios

Improves Land Use and Urban Planning

To address this challenge, our multidisciplinary

search team at the University of Illinois is develop

tools that groups can use to engage in forecasting a

scenario building to predict the likelihood of land

change throughout a region and to understand the

calized urban impacts of that change.

Developing tools to enable planning is essentia

address wicked problems like climate change. Su

problems are complex, and they include aspects

outcomes that are ambiguous and tradeoffs that can

morally and politically divisive. Other systemic pr

lems that are similarly wicked include urban crim

the AIDS virus, racism, and the lack of affordable ho

ing. Like with climate change, their effects on soci

can be mitigated, to be sure, but solutions will lik

require foresight and generations of public investme

Change and



14/40

Navigating the uncertainty of wicked

roblems requires a flexibility and persistence

hat cannot be addressed in a single round of

olicy. Accordingly, the field of urban plan-

ning has begun to adopt a new framework of

roblem solving called scenario planning

hat instead forecasts multiple futures so that

ocal leaders can prescribe multiple solutionso a spectrum of possible problems. Scenario

lanning helps communities engage in diffi-

ult decision making by forecasting multiple

ikely futures, identifying the challenges in-

erent in each, and crafting policies and plans

o address those challenges.

New Tools Allow Flexibility, Community

nput, and Continuous Calibration of

Land Use Plans

Our tool, the Land Use Evolution and

mpact Assessment Model (LEAM), devel-

ps scenarios that let users glimpse likely

utures. Its greatest value is that it can be

used for reiterative planning where local planners, land

wners, and resident stakeholders participate in developing

cenarios.

EAM was used in Peoria, Illinois, to help citizens and

lanners arrive at a consensus on infrastructure and invest-

ment. The scenarios developed helped reveal and resolve

ritical environmental stresses that could have been createdy proposed development actions and exacerbated by cli-

mate change.

eoria is a central Illinois city of about 300,000 people

nestled in the Illinois River valley and surrounded on all

ides by prime farmland. New planning questions emerged

s it became clear that the proposed infrastructure strategy

would conflict with farmland protection and preservation

f the scenic and environmentally sensitive river bluffs.

Conflicts between community goals became apparent only

when all three policies were modeled simultaneously. Sim-

ulations indicated that the farm protection strategy, a typef rural zoning, would increase the likelihood of develop-

ment on the treasured bluffs.

y simply enacting bluff protection before enacting the

ural zoning standards, both the bluffs and the rural farm-

and were preserved. The importance of farmland protec-

ion did not change; the question became how to accom-

lish the goal without compromising local resources.

Predicting Population Growth

This LEAM-generatedpopulation growth predic-tion is one of many toolsused to anticipate futurevariables affecting plans.

Blue indicates an increasered a decrease.

Peoria Tri-County Region

Population Change by 2030








Scenario Planning and Community Input Lead

to Good Policy

No single panacea can equitably mitigate and ad

to climate change and the host of environmental iss

confronting our communities. We can, however, eng

in flexible, evolutionary planning that balances ecolocal, economic, and social needs in order to address th

wicked planning problems. Even though we cannot li

ally travel into the future, new simulation technology

help us visualize the outcome of different plans, polic

and strategies before weve invested precious public

sources to implement them. Planning support systems

help democratize the planning process by enabling en

communities to evaluate and contribute to these plans

participate in the decision-making process that result

wise policy and investment.


Dr. Brian Deal is an assistant professor of urban and regi

planning at the University of Illinois. Robert Boyer is a gr

ate student in the Department of Urban and Regional Plann

working under Dr. Deal.


15/40

How Climate Change


Food Security

n a Changing Environment

Key Term

Food System

A food system is the entire set of processes, an

their local as well as global impacts, surrounding foo

production, harvest, processing, packaging, storin

shipping, selling, preparation, consumption, and r

cycling byproducts.

Our current food system is highly centralized, mean

ing a few large producers and processors serve a va

number of consumers. Food is generally shipped ov

long distances and grown with the aid of fossil fuels.

As climate change and increased demand raise th

price of fossil fuels, a more distributed, localized, an

diversified food system may arise, one that sidestep

high transportation, storage, and processing costs.


Will Climate Change Affect Food Production?

it critically diminished. They would have the option

switching to irrigation but may run into the problejust described. Switching to drought-tolerant crops

even drought-tolerant types within a crop type, m

solve the problem, at least temporarily.

Increased Precipitation Could Cause Flooding

and Disrupt Planting

Increased precipitation could be a boon or a burd

In irrigated areas, increased precipitation may all

for conversion to rain-fed agriculture. In areas alrea

wet, increased precipitation would make it more ficult to get into the field with annual crops like co

soybeans, and wheat. Planting would frequently

delayed, with shorter intervals of dry soil in spring

verybody eats, but few people consider all the processes

and practices that bring food to their table. These pro-

cesses and practices make up the food system, which is

nextricably linked to environmental change.

Environmental Change Will Stress the Food System and

mpact Food Production

Several types of environmental change affect food systems,

ncluding climate change, urbanization, reforestation, energy

vailability, and environmental issues. Urbanization and agri-

ulture are generally pitted against each other in the form of

ompetition for land. Some types of agriculture cause nuisance

nd even health problems for surrounding residents. Issues re-

ated to climate change and its effect on food systems are just

ow being broadly considered and addressed. These include in-

reased or decreased precipitation, changes in the seasonal dis-

ribution of precipitation, average temperature increases, and

more erratic, powerful weather-related events.

Decreased Precipitation in Some Regions Will Affect

rrigated and Rain-Fed Farms

Areas with dry growing seasons, like the American West,

requently use irrigation from groundwater or surface water

ources. Many of these sources rely on snow melt to fill reser-

oirs during the summer; the water is stored in ice until it melts.

As winters and summers warm up, this mountain ice and snow

melts earlier and faster, potentially leading to spring floods and

ow summer supplies. Limited water may mean that fewer west-rn acres will be planted. Also, salts may also accumulate faster

n fields receiving less water, adversely affecting crop growth.

Farmers fortunate enough to rely on rainfall for crops may see

Change and



16/40


ore precipitation would also make it difficult to get

rain crops to dry down, while traction for harvesters

would worsen. For fruits and vegetables, it would also be

more difficult to get into fields for harvest, and the crops

would likely have more disease problems and a shorter

helf life. If these problems make growing current crops

oo difficult, farmers may try growing others, though new

quipment required for such a switch may be prohibitivelyxpensive.

ncreased Precipitation Would Leach More Nutrients

rom Soil and Promote Plant Diseases and Insect Pests

ore precipitation could also flush nutrients and chemi-

als through the soil more rapidly, making it harder to keep

ertilizer in the root zone available to plants. It may also in-

rease soil erosion. More precipitation could also increase

he variety and frequency of fungal and bacterial diseases,

n addition to flooding root zones for extended periods.

recipitation Arriving Earlier or Later in Season May

Disrupt Cropping

Climate change may cause precipitation to arrive earlier

r later each season. This could keep farmers out of the

fields when they need to plant or could jeopardize the sur-

ival of seedlings. Some crops have very sensitive periods,

articularly during pollination, when drought or excessive

wetness can dramatically change the amount of seed or fruit

roduced. Besides arriving earlier and later in the season,weather events will in general become more severe and er-

atic. This will negatively impact farmers ability to plan

when crops should be planted, harvested, and treated with

hemicals. Though farmers have always dealt with unpre-

dictable weather, those problems will worsen as climate

hange progresses.

ncreased Temperature May Affect How We Store

nd Process Food

armer weather means that more energy must be used

where harvested crops are frozen or refrigerated, either for

ransport or for storage. At the same time, efforts to limit

reenhouse gas emissions will force a shift from fossil fuels

o other fuel types and increase the cost of energy. Canning

nd drying as preservation methods may become more im-

ortant than freezing, where continual energy is required to

maintain food in its frozen condition.

Food in the U.S. is regularly shipped thousands of miles. This ditance represents economic and environmental costs. A local foomodel could significantly diminish those costs. Statistics provid

are for Iowa.Source: Leopold Center for Sustainable Agriculture, www.leopold.iastate.edu

Average Miles Traveled by Produce

Broccoli

Apples

Sweet corn

Lettuce

Potatoes

Tomatoes

Peppers

Onions

1,846

1,726

1,426

1,823

1,155

1,569

1,589

1,759

20

61

20

43

75

60

44

35

Conventionally

sourced

Locally

sourced







Food processing requires energy, and as energy costs

crease, using methods that require less energy will beco

ore desirable, including the use of supercritical fluids

drying and low-temperature pasteurization.

iversified Local Food Model Could Provide Food

Security, Lower Transportation Costs, Protect Flav

Higher energy costs may increase demand for frfoods, which avoid the energy costs of storage and p

ervation. This demand could increase the number of lo

farms, which can quickly supply fresh food with lo

ransportation and preservation costs. This local food

harvested also protects taste and nutrition. New techniq

for extending the growing season that require relativ

low energy inputs could make a more localized mode

food production viable throughout the year. Enhancing

balance between local and distant food sources can h

buffer uncertainties of production. For example, drou

in typical supply areas may eliminate distant sourceegetables and fruit, while local growing conditions m

support robust crop production.

bout the Researcher

Dr. Wes Jarrell is interim director of the Environme

Change Institute and professor of sustainable agriculture

atural resources at the University of Illinois.


17/40

How Climate Change


Cap-and-Tradeand Risk Management

Key Term

Emissions Allowance

Under a cap-and-trade system, firms will be give

(or they will purchase at auction) permits, called emi

sion allowances, to emit CO2. The advantage of a cap

and-trade system is that aggregate emission targets amet in the most economically efficient, or least-cos

manner. This happens because some firms are able t

reduce emissions at a lower cost than other firms. Th

low-cost firms can reduce their emissions to a lev

where they have extra allowances to sell to high-co

firms; the high-cost firms find it cheaper to buy extr

allowances than to reduce emissions to their allowe

level.


How Will Cap-and-Trade Affect Firms and Farms?

Lawmakers Can Also Affect Price of Allowance

There will also be uncertainty, especially at fi

about policy makers commitment to enforcing em

sion caps. Many cap-and-trade designs include a saf

valve that in some way modifies the stated cap, wh

can either increase or decrease the volatility of pric

Consider, for example, a policy that issues additio

emission allowances in the event that prices beco

too high. In this case there is uncertainty about the

tercept of the supply of allowances, which introdu

additional volatility into the market.

In addition to limiting the range in which allocatprice can fluctuate, price caps on emission allowan

prevent the aggregate emission target from being m

in the least-cost manner.

s Congress contemplates a cap-and-trade system to

limit greenhouse emissions, its important to under-

stand how such a system will affect the Midwest.

Cap-and-Trade Will Create a New Tradable Commodity

o Be Tracked

A cap-and-trade system will inject a new commodity into

he economyemission allowances. Such allowances will de-

ermine the quantity of pollutant a firm is permitted to emit;

nder a cap-and-trade system, these will be an important input

or many firms and an output for others. The system is created

ecause firms are required to hold allowances for the emissions

hey produce. The nature of supply and demand will have im-

ortant consequences for price behavior of the emission allow-

nces, and therefore important implications for the risk man-

gement efforts of firms all over the Midwest.

Unpredictable Emissions Allowance Price MakesLong-Term Planning Difficult

The price of emission allowances, which will depend

rimarily on the total allowances the government permits, will

e highly uncertain, and their price behavior will likely evolve

ver time. Uncertainty about prices will cause volatility, which

makes risk management difficult. If firms could only know for

ure what they would pay for allowances in the future, they

ould plan and adjust. Price volatility of the emission allowances

argely will be impacted by how the cap-and-trade policy is

esigned. For example, whether firms can bank allowancesor future use or borrow from future allowances will matter a

ot. Banking and borrowing of emission allowances allows the

upply to be smoothed from periods of low demand to periods

f high demand, which makes price movements more stable.

Change and



18/40


Trading Mechanisms for Allowances May Operate

Like Market for Commodities Like Corn and Soybean

s a large spot market for emission allowances devel-

ps, firms will seek out parties with whom they can con-

ract in advance to lock in the price at which they can buy or

ell emission allowances. A forward contract is an agree-

ment to pay a certain price for a commodity at a certainuture date.

hether these forward contracts would mature into a vi-

ble exchange-traded contract like corn or soybean futures

nd other commodities is uncertain. However, exchange-

raded contracts already exist for the sulfur dioxide and

nitrogen oxide emissions allowances resulting from the

cid rain program of the 1990 Clean Air Act, as well as for

European Union allowances, although they do not attract

he kind of volume seen in the more traditional commodity

ontracts.

Cap-and-Trade May Increase Energy Costs for

armers and Provide New Source of Income

ost cap-and-trade proposals (including the one that

as passed the U.S. House of Representatives) exempt ag-

icultural producers from emissions regulations, but as con-

umers of energy farmers will be indirectly affected if the

rices and/or volatility of energy-intensive products like

diesel fuel and fertilizer change. But beyond this indirect

mpact, the climate bill passed by the House includes a pro-

ram to provide incentives . . . for activities undertaken in

he agriculture sector that reduce greenhouse gas emissions

r sequester carbon.

t is still unclear how such a program would be designed,

nd the design will be crucial to the Agricultural Incentives

Program of the cap-and-trade legislation meeting its ob-

ectives. Emissions are a flow variable, regulated in units

measured as tons per unit of time. Emission allowances for

arbon sinks, sometimes called carbon offsets, are a stock

ariable measured in tons currently sequestered in the soil.

t is difficult to design a program that rewards farmers or

ther entities for carbon sequestered in the past while ex-

mpting them from current emissions.

magine a farmer who has land planted to a perennial

over crop that sequesters carbon. Under such a program

he farmer may earn emission allowances that could be

old. However, if the farmers carbon emissions are not

egulated, the emission allocation must be accompanied by

Politics, carbon sinks, and variable enforcement will in-

fluence the supply of emission allowances. Prices will behighest with low supply (few allowances) and high de-

mand (low emissions cap).

P

Mean

Supply

Deman

Mean Price

High SupplyLow Supply

High Price

Low Price

Number of Allowances

Allowance Price







some kind of long-term agreement by the farmer to not

lease the sequestered carbon. Otherwise the farmer wo

be free to plow the soil and release the carbon for wh

he or she was rewarded an emissions allocation. Eve

long-term contract has problems, because a farmer wil

willing to utilize a cover crop for only a certain numbe

years. If the farmer plows the soil at the end of the contperiod, the sequestered carbon may be lost if the farme

not accountable for his or her emissions.

To address this issue, the program could be desig

so that farmers, by accepting emission allocations

they can sell today, elect this land use on this tract to

monitored and accountable for carbon emitted in the

ture. This type of program would have high monitor

costs, however, and it is difficult to envision a design

is both simple (cheap) to monitor and accurately accou

for carbon flows and not just carbon stocks at one per

in time.


Dr. Mindy Mallory is an assistant professor in the Departm

of Agricultural and Consumer Economics at the Universit

Illinois.

Allowance Price Is Unpredictable


19/40

How Climate Change


Native Pollinators

Cope with Environmental Change

Citizen scientists are members of the public who volun-

teer time and effort to gather data needed by scientists. At

BeeSpotter, citizen scientists and amateur bee hunters part-

ner online with scientists to gather images of bees around

Illinois. Each spotting helps illuminate which bees livewhere. If you would like to help researchers understand

and protect bee populations, snap some photos and visit

beespotter.mste.uiuc.

edu to contribute.

Key Term

Citizen Scientist

University of Illinois


in the state declined substantially in the past centu

especially between 1940 and 1960. Four historica

recorded species were not found during extensive c

lecting in 2006 and 2007, while four other bum

bees were found in fewer areas of the state.

Most bees are solitary and do not associate with toffspring or siblings. They emerge each year and m

and nest in soil tunnels or in tunnels or cavities foun

dug in wood, plant stems, or other material. The fem

provision cells with pollen and nectar for their you

Some species are active during most of the grow

season, while others are active only for a few wee

They typically die before their offspring emerge.

Carlinville, Illinois, is home to one of the oldest

most comprehensive studies of bees ever conduc

Between 1884 and 1916, Charles Robertson collec

296 species on over 400 plants. A re-collection inarea in the early 1970s concentrated on 24 selec

plants. University researchers found 82 percent of

bee species originally present on those plants.

National concern over honey bee colony collapse has

generated interest in the status of the other 3,522 U.S.

bee species, most of them wild pollinators. Because

ees are the primary pollinators of many flowering plants and

mportant crops, a national decline in overall wild bee popu-

ations would seriously affect the economy as well as natural

lant communities. European countries have sampled bee pop-

lations for decades and have documented regional declines.Commercial and wild U.S. bee populations have not been sys-

ematically monitored, but there is evidence that the ranges and

umbers of some species are shrinking.

Hundreds of Unique Illinois Bee Species Provide Different

ollination Services

umble bees are important wild pollinators, largely due to

heir robust size, long tongues, flight range, versatility, pollina-

ion efficacy, and the number of flowers they use for pollen and

ectar. They also engage in buzz pollination (the buzz theymake while on a flower vibrates the pollen receptacle at the fre-

uency to expel the pollen), an important mechanism that honey

ees do not exhibit. Bumble bees live in colonies initiated each

pring by solitary queens that overwinter from the previous au-

umn. The colonies get bigger as the season progresses.

University of Illinois scientists are surveying bumble bees

cross the U.S. and comparing them with historical records

rom tens of thousands of museum specimens to track any sig-

ificant changes in species richness and distribution over the

ast 20 years. The Illinois Natural History Survey insect col-

ection has about 360,000 Hymenoptera specimens (ants, bees,nd wasps) dating from the 1800s to the present. Sixteen of 49

U.S. bumblebee species were historically recorded in Illinois

efore 1949. A comparison of museum specimens with recent

field collections shows that the richness of bumble bee species

Change and


Are Wild Bee Pollinator Populations Declining?


20/40


Plant Season

Long-

tongued

bees

Short-

tongued

bees

Butter-

flies and

moths

VirginiaBluebell

earlyspring

16 2 6

Spring

Beauty

early

spring21 37 9

foxglove

beards-tongue

late

Spring -summer

17 5 3

SwampMilkweed summer

12 6 15

Brown-

eyedSusan summer

23 25 7

Sawtooth

sunflower fall29 9 13

Aster

pilosus fall37 53 30

To survive, bees primarily require suitable nesting sites

lose to a continuous source of pollen and nectar when

dults are active. Given their small size, bees can maintain

hemselves in much smaller areas than larger species like

mammals. The bees at Carlinville are probably still pres-

nt because some suitable habitat remains, although their

verall numbers are likely greatly reduced. Likewise, the

esources needed by a large bee or bumble bee colony touccessfully reproduce far exceed those of a small solitary

pring bee. The situation is further complicated by the fact

hat some bees, like honey bees, are generalists and use

many plants, while others are adapted to obtain pollen and

nectar from only a few specific plants.

Habitat Fragmentation, Pesticide Use, and

Conventional Landscaping Stress Bee Populations

ees are vulnerable to various modern practices as well

s to introduced diseases. Land use and landscaping changeshat occurred after World War II greatly impacted many spe-

ies. The switch to row crops, removal of fencerows, conver-

ion of mixed hay pastures to grasses or green alfalfa, and the

dvent of roadside herbicide spraying and mowing removed

nesting habitat and eliminated useful flowering plants in rural

reas. In and around urban areas, new subdivisions are be-

un by scraping away, piling, and often removing topsoil, to-

ether with its nesting bees. The new landscaping often lacks

lants that provide pollen and nectar throughout the growing

eason. Extensive pesticide use in soil and on plants also kills

ountless bees. Bee habitat is becoming increasingly limitednd fragmented, forcing bees to live in ever-smaller areas.

This isolation, in turn, makes it more difficult for bees to

maintain genetic diversity and to recolonize habitats.

Climate Change Could Force Bee Populations to Shift;

Habitat Fragmentation Could Inhibit the Migration

f climate change causes shifts in temperature, rainfall,

nd ultimately the plants that can survive in an area, bee spe-

ies that cannot adapt must emigrate to survive. However,

ees have a relatively short flight range. Many species wouldrobably be unable to bridge the distances between locations

with suitable habitat in much of Illinois and would suffer dra-

matic declines. Habitat fragmentation would also make it dif-

ficult for species already adapted to new conditions to colo-

nize the area. For example, species that currently range from

Louisiana to Canada will likely adapt, while species found

nly in the Southwest may not be able to migrate to Illinois.

Planting a Variety of Native Plants Provide

Pollinators Food Throughout Season

Number of pollinator species that

visit each plant







Landscaping with Native Plants and Habitat Corrid

Would Help Feed Bees and Aid Migrations

Using native plants and carefully selected ornamen

in rural areas, along roadsides, and in neighborhoods, pa

and public landscaping would help mitigate the impact

habitat fragmentation. Creating habitat islands and corrid

would provide food for bees and other pollinators as we

many birds. Planting on or near suitable nesting sites wo

be even more helpful. The table above lists a few of the m

plants that together could provide a continuous food reso

throughout the growing season. Comprehensive lists of

able plants and their availability could be developed for di

ent parts of Illinois. Highways, rural roads, railroads, strea

and related land could form corridors for the migration

dispersal of native bees, butterflies, birds, and other anim


Dr. John Marlin is an associate director of the Illinois

tainable Technology Center. Dr. Sydney Cameron is an asso

professor in the Department of Entomology and the Progra

Ecology, Evolution and Conservation Biology at the Unive

of Illinois.


21/40

How Climate Change


Ethanol or Gas

n a Warming World?

Ethanol or Gas: Which is Best for the Climate?

If we grow corn grain to produce ethanol to power cars, do

we end up using more energy than we create? Is replacing

gasoline with corn ethanol better for the climate? Whats

he best way to calculate how ethanol production and use affect

limate?

Right now many folks are asking these questions and com-

ng up with differing answers. This in part results from the dif-

ering assumptions made when generating estimates. The bal-

nce sheet for corn ethanol is influenced significantly by the

ssumptions used. Key variables are grain yields, the amount of

itrogen fertilizer used to grow grain, the amount of nitrous ox-

de released from agricultural fields, and, last but not least, the

mount of carbon sequestered by soils in the form of organic

matter.

Researchers lead by Steffen Mueller of the Energy Resources

Center at the University of Illinois at Chicago tried to get the

umbers right in evaluating the influence of changing land use

nd production practices on the carbon balance surrounding

n ethanol plant where plans were to double capacity. They

valuated trends by carefully examining changes to each acre

f land in the vicinity of a selected ethanol plant, the Illinois

River Energy Center (IRE) in Rochelle, about 80 miles west of

Chicago.

Remote sensing and survey methods were used to create a

napshot of land use trends in 200607; the researchers found

hat even though demand for corn was high, land near the plant

was not diverted from other uses. This alleviated concern about

nvironmentally sensitive land being removed from conserva-

ion uses. In 2007, about 100,000 acres were needed to supplyhe corn to produce 58 million gallons of ethanol. Farm surveys

were used to determine both yield and N fertilizer application

ates because U.S. averages do not accurately represent the

bove-average growing conditions in Illinois.

Key Term

Global Warming Potential

Global warming potential (GWP) measures the

total greenhouse gas contribution of a person or prac-

tice. Since practices cause the release of many differ-ent greenhouse gases, and each one has a different po-

tential to affect the climate, scientists like to convert

them all to a single unit, known as CO2e. CO2eex-

presses how much a given amount CO2 might affect

climate over 100 years. One ton of CO2 equals 1 ton

of CO2e, whereas 1 ton of N2O, which is 300 times as

potent as CO2, equals 300 tons of CO2e.

GWP of six major greenhouse gases over 100 years:

1 ton CO2= 1 ton CO2e

1 ton methane = 25 tons CO2e1 ton nitrous oxide = 300 tons CO2e1 ton HFC 134a = 1,430 tons CO2e1 ton HFC 23 = 14,800 tons CO2e

Average grain yield was over 180 bushels per ac

If this increases to near 280 bushels, as predicted

the region by 2030, we could reduce the area need

to supply the ethanol plant by 30%.

The study found that corn growers supplying

plant use an average of about 368 g/bu of nitrogen.

trogen fertilizer use contributes to the global warm

potential (GWP) of corn ethanol, first at the fertili

production plant, where energy-intensive manufac

ing processes emit greenhouse gases, and then in

Change and




22/40


field, where a certain amount of nitrogen is lost to the at-

mosphere as nitrous oxide (N2O). N2O is a gaslike carbon

dioxide that insulates the earth, causing temperatures to

ise. There are several ways to estimate the amount of N O

eleased, and approaches differ notably in the amounts pre-

dicted. The method selected for doing the estimate makes

big difference, because the warming caused by one mole-

ule of N2O is about 300 times that of CO .missions are offset to some extent by the amount of

CO that is captured by plants and then sequestered as soil

arbon in organic matter. The net GWP of the ethanol pro-

duction plant was estimated based on existing crop rotations

nd tillage practices. The study did not consider global ad-

ustments in land use patterns from U.S. biofuels production.

Under certain conditions, the amount of warming caused

y the release of heat trapping gasses or consumption of

Carbon Accounting

How to calculate a products GWP, or CO2efootprint

1 If you want to know what impacta product will have on the climate,

you have to track its CO2e emissions

through every stage of its life cycle.

In the case of corn ethanol, you

have to follow the product from

the farm where the corn seed is

planted to the vehicle where the

ethanol is nally burned, releas-

ing energy and emissions.

energy to produce nitrogen fertilizers was offset or

canceled out by the amount of warming reduced by soil

carbon sequestration.

Ethanol or Gas?

According to Dr. Muellers study, corn ethanol from

northern Illinois has 40% less impact on the climatethan gasoline. Farm practices like cover cropping and

no-till farming could further reduce that impact.


Dr. Steffen Mueller is principal research economist at

the Energy Resources Center at the University of Illinois at

Chicago.







CO2e

CO2e

?

3

Corn ethanols impact on global warm-ing begins on the farm. CO2e is released

whenever equipment like a tractor is

burning gas and whenever nitrogen fer-

tilizer applied to the soil returns to the

air as nitrous oxide.

CO2e

CO2e The farm lowers its global warmin

potential when it takes carbon fro

the atmosphere and traps it in th

soil. Practices like no-till farming an

planting cover crops are good ways t

do just that.

When you subtract the CO2e trappefrom the CO2e released, the farms

northern Illinois that used cover crop

ping and no-till roughly broke even.

2

After leaving the farm, corn is trans-

ported to processing facilities, processed

into ethanol, transported to gas stations,

and combusted in vehicles. CO2e released

during each step is added to the overall

GWP of corn ethanol.

4 When all is tallied, corn ethanol fromnorthern Illinois has a net-positive cli-

mate impact, meaning that it does con-

tribute to climate change. But the study

found that its contribution was lower

than that of gasoline.

+

-

=

CO2e

CO2eCO2e

CO2e

GWP

+

5CO2e

+

Global Warming Impact of IRE Produced Corn Ethanol

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Gasoline

Average

EthanolPlant

IRE

IRE

&

CO2-

Sequestration

gCO2/MJ

C-Sequestration

IRE Biorefinery

Other Ag andDistribution

N Fertilizer

Net GWI


23/40

Soil Carbon

and Nitrogen Fertilizer

Key Term

Carbon Sink

A carbon sink is a natural or humanmade reservo

that accumulates and stores some carbon-containin

chemical compound for an indefinite period. Peop

usually refer to carbon sinks as places to store atmospheric (CO2) that would otherwise contribute to glob

al warming. The largest natural carbon sinks are th

oceans and soil. The largest humanmade carbon sink

are landfills and, potentially, underground reservoi

where excess CO2 could be piped.

Agricultural soil has significant potential to remov

CO2 from the atmosphere. Farming practices such a

nitrogen fertilizer application and tillage affect th

amount soil can store. When stored in soil, carbon has

number of functions. It can improve soil stability, pre

vents nutrient leaching, and can stabilize pH. Gene

ally, farmers who store more carbon in their soil arboth combatting climate change and improving th

productivity of their soil.

How Climate Change


Beginning in the 1950s, the agricultural landscape

of Illinois shifted from the traditional family farm,

ith legume-based rotations and integrated animal

roduction, toward intensive cash-grain cropping of corn

nd soybeans. This shift was made possible by a postwar

xpansion in the availability of commercial nitrogen fertilizers

hat boosted corn yields with improved hybrids. The past five

ecades have seen a remarkable increase in corn yield and alson the consumption of fertilizer nitrogen, often overapplied as a

means to ensure high yields.

Unfortunately, the input-intensive approach used in achiev-

ng this yield increase has been decidedly negative in its con-

equences for soil carbon, a key component of fertility and an

mportant means of storing carbon that would otherwise be con-

ributing to climate change as atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2 .

Nitrogen Fertilization Increases Organic Carbon Inputs

But Not Storage

ong-term experiments at the Morrow Plots at the Univer-

ity of Illinois show that applying nitrogen fertilizer reduces

tored soil carbon even as it increases the amount of residue

arbon left in fields. Historical yield records for the Morrow

Plots reveal impressive gains in corn production since the shift

o commercial fertilization in 1955. Five decades later, the cu-

mulative result has been a massive input of residue carbon (91

o 124 tons per acre), yet the only significant changes in soil

rganic carbon were net losses, and these tended to be more

xtensive for the subsurface soil than for the plow layer.

n effect, nothing remained from the residue carbon incor-orated in the past 51 years, and a decline had usually occurred

n native soil organic carbon. This decline contributed directly

o increasing atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide. To ascertain

whether the Morrow Plots are unique in document

a detrimental effect of synthetic nitrogen fertilizat

on soil storage of organic carbon, extensive effort w

made to compile baseline changes from 48 publis

field trials with synthetic nitrogen.

The resulting database, representing a wide ra

of soil and climatic conditions, cropping systems,

management practices, confirms the effectivenessnitrogen/phosphorus/potassium fertilization for

creasing biomass production but not for sequester

soil carbon. On the contrary, the usual finding has b

Change and



Can Conventional Farming Sequester Carbon?


24/40


decrease over time in organic carbon levels. If nitrogen

ertilization increases the input of carbon into the soil with-

ut increasing carbon storage, there must be more extensive

microbial decomposition of residue carbon to CO2

Soil Carbon Losses Increased by Removing

Above-Ground Residues or Overapplying Nitrogen

The adverse impact of nitrogen fertilization in promot-

ng the loss of soil organic matter will be exacerbated by

emoving above-ground residues, which act as a buffer to

educe microbial attack on native soil carbon. Before the

950s, this practice promoted soil degradation in the Corn

Belt by depleting soil carbon and several major nutrients

notably nitrogen, phosphorus, and sulfur) while enhancing

rosion and compaction.

ith heavy usage of synthetic nitrogen, the impact

would be far worse today, so caution is warranted with the

urrent trend toward using crop residues for bioenergy pro-duction. The long-term consequences of removing above-

-15

0

15

30

45

60

75

90

105

120

-15

0

15

30

45

60

75

90

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120

-15

0

15

30

45

60

7590

105

120

Unfertilized NPK HNPK

TonsofCarbonperAcre

Residue

C input

Soil C

storage

(0-18 in.)

Fig. 1. Cumulative input and storage of carbon between 1955 and 2005 with and without

NPK or HNPK fertilization of Morrow Plots cropped to continuous corn [C-C], a corn-

oats (before 1967) or corn-soybean (since 1967) rotation [C-O(S)], or a corn-oats-alfalfa

hay rotation [C-O-H].

C-C

C-O(S)

C-O-H







Illinois Soil Nitrogen Test

N Fertilizer Commonly Overapplied

The Illinois Soil Nitrogen Test (illinoissoilntest.nre

uiuc.edu/about.html) lets farmers estimate how much n

trogen their soil can provide to crops, giving them a bett

idea of how much fertilizer they should apply.The tool helps farmers maximize the return on their fe

tilizer investment, while minimizing the adverse environ

mental effects of overfertilization.

ground residues are readily apparent from the develop

world, where soils have been depleted by many centu

of residue removal to provide animal feed and fuel for

kitchen. In the Midwest, residues would be used as a fuel subsidized at public expense.

To minimize further loss of soil organic carbon, red

ing fertilization beyond the crops nitrogen requirem

should be emphasized. One option would be to account

the soils indigenous nitrogen-supplying power using

Illinois Soil Nitrogen Test (ISNT), in which case appl

tion rates can be adjusted specific to each site.

Nitrogen inputs can be further reduced if fertilizatio

postponed to better coincide with crop nitrogen need,

ally by a sidedress application in late spring. This strat

will help producers cut their cost of production while merating the detrimental effects of overfertilization on

water, and soil resources.


Dr. Richard Mulvaney is a professor in the Departmen

Natural Resources and Environmental Science at the Unive

of Illinois. Dr. Saeed Khan is a research specialist and Dr.

Ellsworth is an associate professor in the same department.

Conventional Cropping Practices

Cause Decline in Soil Organic Carbon


25/40

How Climate Change


Will Coal

Be the Fuel of the Future?

Change and



What is the Future of Electricity in the U.S.?

With our current electrical grid, you can be eith

consumer or producer. Producers are centralized po

plants, and consumers are the millions of buildings t

serve.

With a smart grid, digital technology would al

everyone to be a producer and feed surplus electricity

the grid. People with rooftop solar panels or wind turb

could sell excess power back to their municipalities.

grid would also increase reliability and transparency w

reducing the costs of energy distribution.

Most people give little thought to the source of the elec-tricity that comes out of the outlet. And why shouldthey? The American electric power grid has been de-

igned as the ultimate in plug-and-play conveniencejust flip a

witch and the light comes on. Aside from the monthly bill and

he occasional blackout, electricity is easy to take for granted.Yet lately it is hard to open a newspaper without seeing refer-

nces to the changes brewing in the electric industrycap-and-rade, renewable electric energy sources, global climate change,lans to phase out incandescent light bulbs, cyber security, andhe so-called smart grid.

Top Engineering Achievement of the 20th Century

The humble electric outlet is a gateway to one of the mostomplex and largest entities ever created. Except for a fewslands and other isolated systems, the entire electric grid in

North America is really just one big circuit. It has billions of

ndividual electric loads, tens of millions of miles of wire, andens of thousands of electric generators. Electric lines operat-ng at up to 765,000 volts (more than 6,000 times the typicalousehold value of 120 volts) allow electricity to be transferred

undreds of miles with very low losses.The intricacy of this grid was recognized in 2000 by the U.S.

National Academy Engineering as the top engineering achieve-ment of the 20th century, beating out the automobile, the air-lane, and electronics, among other competitors.

Reliability, Economies of Scale, Vulnerability,

nd Price Volatility

Change and the Heartland

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