Challenge and response in the East-West migration, in times of crisis Dumitru Sandu University of Bucharest Slides for intervention in the Debate on East-West migration, Dutch Scientific Council for Government Policy/ Hollands Spoor , Hague, October 10, 2013. The only responsible for analysis and points of view is the author. Slides could be circulated and used with proper citation. Data on the slides will be presented function of the course of the discussions.
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Challenge and response in the East -West migration , in times of crisis
Challenge and response in the East -West migration , in times of crisis. Dumitru Sandu University of Bucharest. Slides for intervention in the D ebate on East-West migration , Dutch Scientific Council for Government Policy/ Hollands Spoor , Hague, October 10, 2013. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Challenge and response in the East-West migration, in times of crisis
Dumitru SanduUniversity of Bucharest
Slides for intervention in the Debate on East-West migration, Dutch Scientific Council for Government Policy/ Hollands Spoor , Hague, October 10, 2013.
The only responsible for analysis and points of view is the author. Slides could be circulated and used with proper citation. Data on the slides will be presented function of the course of the discussions.
Questions
2
LANCES TO USE
How to address mobility/migration between East and West Europe as to be policy effective? And especially, what about Romanian migration in this context?
DESCRIPTIVES
How many are they? How the streams of migration are changing?
Volume or composition?
MIGRATION SYSTEMS and FIELDS
• How is structured the Romanian and Polish migration system towards Western Europe?
• What are the key migration fields of Romanian emigration by subnational regions at origin and clusters of countries at destination?
TOWARDS POLICIES
How to meet the challenges? Where are the Roma in the picture?
Answers in a nutshell (1)*
3
LANCES TO USE
1. Contextualising the reference migration stream by including it into - clusters of streams, defined as migration system or as migiration fields,
- their own trend or history of change - competing migrants **2. Specification of streams by passing from ethnic or national approaches to those
distinguishing among migrants by skill level and deprivation level (high skilled, medium skilled, low skilled , low skilled and with cumulative deprivations etc.).
3. All the available data to do cross-national comparisons are rather week, underestimating migration. Their consideration in dynamic series, in as parts of migration structures and inmultivariate models works well.
DESCRIPTIVES 1. Romanians, Polish and Bulgarians are the dominant groups of immigrants in the current migration system from East to West.
2. Their preferred destinations, shares and rhythms of demographic increase/decrease to a given destination are highly different. Predictions are better if one considers these differences.
3. Increase rates of immigration to Netrherlands in 2008-2013 compared to 2004-2008 are consistently higher for Bulgarian, Polish and Somalian immigrants compared to the Romanian ones.
4. Three major transnational field of Romanian work emigration in Europe (SOUTH, NORTH EUROPE , CENTRAL-WEST) and three minor ones (BRITISH, HUNGARIAN, NORTH-AMERICAN) are clearly revealed by 2011 national census in Romania. Each such field has defined regions of origin in Romania. Circular migration for specific national groups firmly rooted in such fields.
• See slides for details and support• ** Stouffer, Samuel A. (1960). Intervening opportunities and competing migrants. Journal
of Regional Science, 2(1), 1-26.
Answers in a nutshell (2)
4
DESCRIPTIVES 5. The popular view that Romanian immigration increases significantly
after lifting restrictions is not supported by the way process evolved in Spain, Denmark and Italy .
6. The networks supporting recent migration to Netherlands are supported in those communities or regions from Romania that are: more developed , with tradition in migration towards Nertherlands, in communities where from migration is also directed towards North countries (especially Scandinavian ones and Czech republic), Belgium and Irelands. Origin communities with large share of Roma are not specific for Romanian emigration to Netherlands (see slide with streams of emigration that have common origin in Romania).
MIGRATION SYSTEMS
1. Romania and Poland are the key sending countries in the East-West migration system. Their migrants are in competition especially in Germany. Otherwise, there is a specific domination of the Poles on the labour markets in Germany and UK and for Romanians in Spain and Italy. In all the EU15 destinations there are also very large segments of competing migrants from Latin America, Africa and Asia. France is another important player in this system but necessary data for analysis are not available.
2. Any prediction on a national specific group of immigrants (Romanians, Poles, Bulgarians etc.) is better founded if considering the whole system integrating the refernce stream and the competing migrants for the immigration country.
3. There is a high inertia of each migration system that is working even in change moments as those of lifting/imposing work restrictions.
Answers in a nutshell (3)
5
TOWARDS POLICIES
1. Joint development projects for the countries and regions that are involved in the dynamics of the reference migration system.
2. There is no miraculous solution to Roma challenge in European circular migration. Only joining efforts cound be effective: of origin and destination countries, national and regional policies, labour integration policies and settlement policies etc.
3. Comparing diffrent migration policies to see their impact on meeting migration problems, e.g: comparison of the settlement patterns of Romanian Roma immigrants in Italy and Spain as favoured by local rules.
4. National and EUROSTAT statistics are useful but do no capture the essential dynamics of the migration processes. It would be very useful to devise a kind of migration observatory for the East-West migration integrating the data sources of relevant institutions.
DESCRIPTIVES: East-West migration in Europe dominated by Romanians, Poles and Bulgarians
Main group of Eastern European immigrants in Western Europe
Data source: EUROSTAT. Data for 2012, thousands immigrants by citizenship . Unreported data for immigration in France.
Figures underestimate the volume and intensity of migration. At least for Romanian emigration, the hierachies by countries of immigration are rather stable.
Circular migration that seems to be more and more intense is hard to measure and is more visible than the rather long time one.
DESCRIPTIVES: Share of interviewed Romanians declearing that they are having al least one relative or close friend in the
specified country
7
43
29 25
12 10 7 7 6 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 10
1020304050
Italy
Spai
nGe
rman
yUS
AFr
ance
Unite
d…Ca
nada
Aust
riaBe
lgiu
mGr
eece
Hung
ary
Neth
erla
nds
Swed
enPo
rtug
alCy
prus
Switz
erla
ndDe
nmar
kIre
land
Aust
ralia
Turk
eyAs
ian
coun
try
Data source: EUCROSS survey, 2013, weighted data
Figures are relevant for the density of social networks abroad, by destination countries. Hierarchy consistent with the one referring to the number of emigrants in the previous slide.
DESCRIPTIVES: Highly differentiated rates of increase for non-western groups of immigrants to Netherlands (%)
8
1.4 1.9
0.2 0.7 1.2
0.9 2.
6
8.9
13.1
29.3
1.8
2.0
2.1 2.7 3.6
3.8 6.
3
11.3 15
.4 17.8
27.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0Su
dan(
6.3)
Tuni
sia(9
)
Mor
occo
(368
.8)
(form
.) Ne
ther
.Anti
ll.&
Arub
a(14
5.5)
Afgh
anist
an(4
2.3)
Iraq(
53.7
)
Iran(
35.4
)
Chin
a(61
.9)
Rom
ania
(17.
8)
Som
alia
(34.
6)
Pola
nd(1
11.1
)
Bulg
aria
(20.
8)
2008/2004 2013/2008
Data source: CBS Statistics Netherlands
Large groups of high rate of increase POLISH and SOMALIANS
Largest group of low rate of increase – MORROCCANS
Bulgarians and Romanians , similar size but much lower rate of democraphic increse for Romanians
Figures in parenthesis indicate the size of the group in 2013, in thou.
DESCRIPTIVES: How large is the increase of net immigration of Roamanians after lifting the work restrictions : Italy, Spain and Denmark cases
9
There is not a clear support of the hypothesis that lifting work restrictions for Romanian immigrants generates waves of such incoming immigrants.
• In the period without restrictions in Spain, 2009-2010 was a decline in the rates of immigration increases.
• Anual increse of net immigration of Romanians in Denmark ,a fter lifting restrictions was between 1.4 to 2.5 thou.
• The increse of about 20 thou. in the Italian case is not relevant for only one year. It is very likely that part of this increase is nothing else than a conversion of irregulated into regulated work.
SYSTEM: Migration fields of Romanian recent migration
10
47
20
12
11
5
4
1
0 10 20 30 40 50
ITALY
SPAIN
CENTRAL-WEST EUROPE
NORTH EUROPE
UNITED KINGDOM
HUNGARY
NORTH AMERICAMai
n m
igra
tion
field
s of
rece
nt R
oman
ian
mig
ratio
nab
road
Romanians that left the country for the destination fileld in 2011 (%)
Data source: NIS, census 2011. Central-West Europe: France, Belgium, Portugal, Austria. North Europe: Sweden, Denmark, Norwey, Germany, Netherlands, Ireland. N=363 thou migrants. 22 thou are migrants dispersed in other fields. The hierarchy with the the migrants that left the country for more than onbe year at the census moment was similar with 50% in Italy and 25% in Spain.
SYSTEM: A highly regionalised Romanian migration by origin and destination
11
Data source: NIS, census 2011, Migrants that left the country of less than one year. Capital letters are for the origin county.Percentages indicate the share of emmigrants from a certain cluster of counties towards a certain European destination. Map design and data computations – D.Sandu.
• There is a high stability in time for migration fields.*
• The Eastern part of the country is
dominated by the Italian field.
• The South is an interaction between Spanish and Italian fields.
• The Northern fields integrates mainly counties from the West and Center of the country.
• The Hungarian field is rooted into the counties with larger shares of ethnic Hungarians
*Sandu, D. (2005). Emerging transnational migration from Romanian villages. Current Sociology, 53(4), 555-582.
SYSTEM: How the main fields of recent Romanian migration abroad are connected at origin, in Romania
12
HUNGARY NORTH AMERICA
CENTRAL-WEST EUROPE
SPAIN ITALY
NORTH EUROPE
UNITED KINGDOM
Data source NIS, data matrix of Romanians that left the country of less than one year, by origin county and destination country, census data 2011. Each destination has a profile given by the number of emigrants by counties (log transformation). A correlation matrix among all the vectors is the basis for the diagram. Correlations that are significant for p=0.01 are marked by marked lines. Thin lines indicate significant coiefficients for p=0.05.
Fields of migration that have overlaped regional origins in Romania are, very likely, connected by dense migration networks.
UK field of Romanian migration is mainly connected to Central-West, North America , Hungary and Italy fields.
North Europe field (mainly Germany, Scandinavia countries , Netherlands and Ireland) is mainly connected by Romanian migration networks to Central-West Europe,North-America and Hungary.
It is very likely that the Romanian immigrants in this field come mainly through the medium of the network mentioned before.
Central-West Europe field (with France, Belgium, Portugal, Austria, mainly) is the most dense in linkages with other fields of Romanian migration.
POLICY: Inputs in the discussion on Roma immigrants in EU coming from Romania
13
highe
r edu
cation
post-
high sc
hool
high s
chool
gymna
sium
primary
no gr
adua
tion
0.05.0
10.015.020.025.030.035.040.0
14.4
3.2
24.427.0
14.2
3.00.7 0.2
4.9
35.7 34.2
20.2
Total population RomaData source: NIS, census 2011
More than half of the Roma have only primary education or less
• How many Roma in Romanian resident population?
622 thou. according to 2011 census. Comment: they are very likely, slightly under-recorded due to their high mobility and the fact that some of them do not have Ids.
• Cumulative deprivations related to employment, housing, education , health and poor communities they live in.
• Discrimination.
• Culture of high territorial mobility for some groups.
Annexe 1: Share of emigrants from Romania by origin and destination regions
161. The profile of each country is given by the emigration rate, the immigrant weight, inputs-remittances per capita, volume of input remittances
(ln), outputs – remittances per migrant. Cluster analysis, normalized variabiles with z, the methods of the farthest neighbour, Euclidian gaps raised to square
The external migration profile of Romania resembles most that of Poland, Lithuania, Bulgaria and Slovakia
The more the junction segments of the branches starting at the country name are closer to the 0 value on the scale, the more those countries have a more resembling migration profile
Reduced immigration, high level of remittance input
Low level of remittance input
Low level of remittance exiting the country
Annex 4:Main streams of East- West migration system in European Union
866 SPAIN, compet.immig. 120Data source: EUROSTAT Lat.Amer.&Morocco 504Figures indicate thou. Citizens 95of the origin country 370 73 97 83living in a destination one UNITED KINGDOM POLANDDiagram construction: D.Sandu competing migrants 700
from Pakistan , India Volume of the streams124
very high lowStreams of insignificant volume, of less than 50 thou. are notrepresented in diagram high very lowFrance is part of the system. Lack of data.Data source: EUROSTAT
Romania and Poland are the key sending countries in this migration system system. Their migrants are in competition especially in Germany. Otherwise, there si a specific domination of the Polish on the labour markets in Germany and UK and for Romanians in Spain and Italy. In all these EU15 destinations there are are also very large segments of competing migrants for Latin America, Africa and Asia. France is another important player in this system but necessary data for analysis are not available.