1 THE CHANGING NORTH THE CHANGING NORTH CAROLINA ECONOMY: CAROLINA ECONOMY: Forces, Prospects, Forces, Prospects, Issues Issues Michael L. Walden Michael L. Walden Reynolds Distinguished Reynolds Distinguished Professor Professor North Carolina State North Carolina State University University
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THE CHANGING NORTH THE CHANGING NORTH CAROLINA ECONOMY: CAROLINA ECONOMY: Forces, Prospects, IssuesForces, Prospects, Issues
Michael L. WaldenMichael L. WaldenReynolds Distinguished ProfessorReynolds Distinguished ProfessorNorth Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University
22
N.C. Real Gross State Product ($ bil.)
050
100150200250300350
$
33
NC Real Personal Income Per Capita
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
$
44
75
80
85
90
95
%
NC Personal Income Per Capita as % of US Personal Income Per
Capita
55
0 50 100 150 200 250
%
Non-man.
Manuf.
Total
Change in NC Real GSP, 1977-2002
66
Production Indices (2000=100)Production Indices (2000=100)
1977 2000 20021977 2000 2002
Furniture 75 100 84Furniture 75 100 84
Tobacco 686 100 110Tobacco 686 100 110
Textiles 84 100 76Textiles 84 100 76
Apparel 78 100 97Apparel 78 100 97
77
Production Indices (2000=100)Production Indices (2000=100)
Cost of Transmitting InformationCost of Transmitting Information
Cost of transmitting 1000 words:Cost of transmitting 1000 words:
1970: $0.011970: $0.01
Today: $0.0000001Today: $0.0000001
1616
Transportation CostsTransportation Costs
Ocean freight rates fell 50% in the last Ocean freight rates fell 50% in the last decadedecade
Air freight rates fell 35% in the last Air freight rates fell 35% in the last decadedecade
1717
Average Tariff Rates
0
5
10
15
20
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
%
1818
Percent of Consumer Spending on Services
50
55
60
65
70
75
%
1919
40
50
60
70
80
%
Change in Average Wage Rates, 1990-2004
2020
0
10
20
30
40
50
%
Change in Employment, 1990-2004
2121
Population and CommutingPopulation and Commuting
Nine counties either lost population or Nine counties either lost population or had gains under 5% between 1990 had gains under 5% between 1990 and 2000and 2000
Cross-county commuting increased Cross-county commuting increased from 26% to 31% of workers from 26% to 31% of workers between 1990 and 2000between 1990 and 2000
2222
State and Local Government State and Local Government Spending in North CarolinaSpending in North Carolina
As a Percent of Gross State ProductAs a Percent of Gross State Product
1992: 11.2%1992: 11.2%
2002: 11.3%2002: 11.3%
2323
507090
110130150
%
Change in NC Annual Nominal Public Spending, 1992-2002
2424
NC Public Spending Trends, 1992-NC Public Spending Trends, 1992-20022002
Growing faster than GSP:Growing faster than GSP: Social ServicesSocial Services EnvironmentEnvironment Public SafetyPublic Safety TransportationTransportationGrowing slower than GSP:Growing slower than GSP: EducationEducation Debt InterestDebt Interest AdministrationAdministration
2525
NORTH CAROLINA NORTH CAROLINA DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONSDEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS
Implies More Competition, both for Implies More Competition, both for Producers and Workers – Increased Producers and Workers – Increased Importance of ProductivityImportance of Productivity