Ch14 aggt.sales & op.planning

1

Aggregate Sales and Operations Planning

2

Sales and Operations Planning

The Aggregate Operations Plan

Examples: Chase and Level strategies

OBJECTIVES

3

Master scheduling

Material requirements planning

Order schedulingWeekly workforce andcustomer scheduling

Daily workforce and customer scheduling

Process planning

Strategic capacity planning

Sales and operations (aggregate) planning

Longrange

Intermediaterange

Shortrange

ManufacturingServices

Sales plan Aggregate operations plan

Forecasting & demand management

4

Sales and Operations Planning Activities

Long-range planning– Greater than one year planning horizon– Usually performed in annual increments

Medium-range planning– Six to eighteen months – Usually with weekly, monthly or quarterly

increments

Short-range planning– One day to less than six months– Usually with weekly or daily increments

5

The Aggregate Operations Plan

• Main purpose: Specify the optimal combination of

• production rate (units completed per unit of time)

• workforce level (number of workers)

• inventory on hand (inventory carried from previous period)

• Product group or broad category (Aggregation)

• This planning is done over an intermediate-range planning period of 3 to18 months

6

Balancing Aggregate Demandand Aggregate Production Capacity

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

45005500

7000

10000

8000

6000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

4500 4000

90008000

4000

6000

Suppose the figure to the right represents forecast demand in units

Suppose the figure to the right represents forecast demand in units

Now suppose this lower figure represents the aggregate capacity of the company to meet demand

Now suppose this lower figure represents the aggregate capacity of the company to meet demand

What we want to do is balance out the production rate, workforce levels, and inventory to make these figures match up

What we want to do is balance out the production rate, workforce levels, and inventory to make these figures match up

7

Required Inputs to the Production Planning System

Planning for

production

External capacity

Competitors’behavior

Raw material availability

Market demand

Economic conditions

Currentphysical capacity

Current workforce

Inventory levels

Activities required for production

External to firm

Internal to firm

8

Key Strategies for Meeting Demand (Production Planning Strategies)

• Chase Strategy

• Stable workforce – variable work hours

• Level Strategy

9

Key Strategies for Meeting Demand (Production Planning Strategies)

• Pure Strategy – only one of the variables used to absorb demand fluctuations

• Mixed Strategy – two or more variables used in combination constitute this strategy

10

Prodn Plan 1 - Exact Production / Vary workforce

Prodn Plan 2 – Constant workforce / Vary Inventory & permit stockouts

Prodn Plan 3 – Constant workforce / Subcontract

Prodn Plan 4 – Vary wrkforce/Subcont.

AGGREGATE PLANNING TECHNIQUES (cut-and-try)

11

Aggregate Planning Examples: Unit Demand and Cost Data

Materials Rs5/unitHolding costs Rs1/unit per mo.Marginal cost of stockout Rs1.25/unit per mo.Hiring and training cost Rs200/workerLayoff costs Rs250/workerLabor hours required .15 hrs/unitStraight time labor cost Rs8/hourBeginning inventory 250 unitsProductive hours/worker/day 7.25Paid straight hrs/day 8

Suppose we have the following unit demand and cost information:

Suppose we have the following unit demand and cost information:

Demand/mo Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

4500 5500 7000 10000 8000 6000

12

Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunDays/mo 22 19 21 21 22 20Hrs/worker/mo 159.5 137.75 152.25 152.25 159.5 145Units/worker 1063.33 918.33 1015 1015 1063.33 966.67Rs/worker 1,408 1,216 1,344 1,344 1,408 1,280

Productive hours/worker/day 7.25Paid straight hrs/day 8

Demand/mo Jan Feb Mar Apr MayJun

4500 5500 7000 10000 80006000

Given the demand and cost information below, whatare the aggregate hours/worker/month, units/worker, and Ruppees/worker?

Given the demand and cost information below, whatare the aggregate hours/worker/month, units/worker, and Ruppees/worker?

7.25x 22

7.25/0.15=48.33 & 48.33x22=1063.3322x8hrsxRs8=Rs1

408

Cut-and-Try Example: Determining Straight Labor Costs and Output

13

Chase Strategy(Hiring & Firing to meet demand)

JanDays/mo 22Hrs/worker/mo 159.5Units/worker 1,063.33Rs/worker 1,408

JanDemand 4,500Beg. inv. 250Net req. 4,250Req. workers 3.997HiredFired 3Workforce 4Ending inventory 0

Lets assume our current workforce is 7 workers.

Lets assume our current workforce is 7 workers.

First, calculate net requirements for production, or 4500-250=4250 units

Then, calculate number of workers needed to produce the net requirements, or 4250/1063.33=3.997 or 4 workers

Finally, determine the number of workers to hire/fire. In this case we only need 4 workers, we have 7, so 3 can be fired.

14

Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunDays/mo 22 19 21 21 22 20Hrs/worker/mo 159.5 137.75 152.25 152.25 159.5 145Units/worker 1,063 918 1,015 1,015 1,063 967Rs/worker 1,408 1,216 1,344 1,344 1,408 1,280

Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunDemand 4,500 5,500 7,000 10,000 8,000 6,000Beg. inv. 250Net req. 4,250 5,500 7,000 10,000 8,000 6,000Req. workers 3.997 5.989 6.897 9.852 7.524 6.207Hired 2 1 3Fired 3 2 1Workforce 4 6 7 10 8 7Ending inventory 0 0 0 0 0 0

Below are the complete calculations for the remaining months in the six month planning horizon

Below are the complete calculations for the remaining months in the six month planning horizon

15

Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunDemand 4,500 5,500 7,000 10,000 8,000 6,000Beg. inv. 250Net req. 4,250 5,500 7,000 10,000 8,000 6,000Req. workers 3.997 5.989 6.897 9.852 7.524 6.207Hired 2 1 3Fired 3 2 1Workforce 4 6 7 10 8 7Ending inventory 0 0 0 0 0 0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun CostsMaterial 21,250.00 27,500.00 35,000.00 50,000.00 40,000.00 30,000.00 203,750.00Labor 5,627.59 7,282.76 9,268.97 13,241.38 10,593.10 7,944.83 53,958.62Hiring cost 400.00 200.00 600.00 1,200.00Firing cost 750.00 500.00 250.00 1,500.00

260,408.62

Below are the complete calculations for the remaining months in the six month planning horizon with the other costs included

16

Level Workforce Strategy (Surplus and Shortage Allowed)

JanDemand 4,500Beg. inv. 250Net req. 4,250Workers 6Production 6,380Ending inventory 2,130Surplus 2,130Shortage

Lets take the same problem as before but this time use the Level Workforce strategy

Lets take the same problem as before but this time use the Level Workforce strategy

This time we will seek to use a workforce level of 6 workers

This time we will seek to use a workforce level of 6 workers

17

Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunDemand 4,500 5,500 7,000 10,000 8,000 6,000Beg. inv. 250 2,130 2,140 1,230 -2,680 -1,300Net req. 4,250 3,370 4,860 8,770 10,680 7,300Workers 6 6 6 6 6 6Production 6,380 5,510 6,090 6,090 6,380 5,800Ending inventory 2,130 2,140 1,230 -2,680 -1,300 -1,500Surplus 2,130 2,140 1,230Shortage 2,680 1,300 1,500

Note, if we recalculate this sheet with 7 workers we would have a surplus

Note, if we recalculate this sheet with 7 workers we would have a surplus

Below are the complete calculations for the remaining months in the six month planning horizon

Below are the complete calculations for the remaining months in the six month planning horizon

18

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun4,500 5,500 7,000 10,000 8,000 6,000

250 2,130 10 -910 -3,910 -1,6204,250 3,370 4,860 8,770 10,680 7,300

6 6 6 6 6 66,380 5,510 6,090 6,090 6,380 5,8002,130 2,140 1,230 -2,680 -1,300 -1,5002,130 2,140 1,230

2,680 1,300 1,500

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun8,448.00 7,296.00 8,064.00 8,064.00 8,448.00 7,680.00 48,000.00

31,900.00 27,550.00 30,450.00 30,450.00 31,900.00 29,000.00 181,250.002,130.00 2,140.00 1,230.00 5,500.00

3,350.00 1,625.00 1,875.00 6,850.00

241,600.00

Below are the complete calculations for the remaining months in the six month planning horizon with the other costs included

Below are the complete calculations for the remaining months in the six month planning horizon with the other costs included

Note, total costs under this strategy are less than Chase at Rs260.408.62

Note, total costs under this strategy are less than Chase at Rs260.408.62

LaborMaterialStorageStockout

19

Question Bowl

Sales and Operations Planning activities are usually conducted during which planning time horizon?

a. Long-range b. Intermediate-rangec. Short-ranged. Really short-rangee. None of the above

Answer: b. Intermediate-range (i.e., 6 to 18 months)

20

Question BowlWhich of the following are Production Planning

Strategies can involve trade-offs among the

workforce size, work hours, inventory, and

backlogs?

a. Chase strategy

b. Stable workforce-variable work hours

c. Level strategy

d. All of the above

e. None of the above

Answer: d. All of the above

21

Question Bowl

Which of the following are considered “relevant

costs” in the Aggregate Production Plan?a. Costs associated with changes in the production

rateb. Inventory holding costsc. Backordering costsd. Basic production costse. All of the above

Answer: e. All of the above

22

Question Bowl

Which of the following Aggregate Planning

Techniques can be performed using simple

spreadsheets?a. Cut-and-tryb. Linear programmingc. Transportation methodd. All of the abovee. None of the above

Answer: a. Cut-and-try (The other two involve more complex computational effort than simple spreadsheets.)

23

Question BowlWhich of the following methods can be used

to allocate the right type of capacity to the

right type of customer at the right price and

in time to maximize revenue?

a. Cut-and-try

b. Yield management

c. Transportation method

d. All of the above

e. None of the above

Answer: b. Yield management

24

Question Bowl

From an operational perspective Yield

Management is most effective as a capacity

technique, then which of the following

happens?

a. Demand can not be segmented by customer

b. Variable costs are high

c. Fixed costs are low

d. Demand is highly variable

e. All of the above

Answer: d. Demand is highly variable