Cgyitdecisions june 2011

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Scenario Planningand IT Decision Making

Dr Chris [email protected]

IT Decisions ConferenceJune 2011

www.samiconsulting.co.uk© SAMI Consulting

mailto:[email protected]

www.samiconsulting.co.uk 2© SAMI Consulting

• Our offer– To enhance the capability to anticipate – To transform emergent thinking into strategy and

implementation

• Consulting, backed up by executive education and research to deliver “robust decisions in uncertain times”

• “You can never plan the future by the past”– Edmund Burke, 1729-1797

SAMI


• Formed in 1989• Until 1999 based at St Andrews University• Now virtual, owned by staff• Celebrated our 20th anniversary at the Royal Society• Over 200 projects delivered in 21 countries• Celebrated our 25th virtually over the year

• People:• 11 Fellows, Director level experience in major organisations, public and

private sectors: consult, teach & write on business, policy, strategy and futures, leadership

• 8 Principals, Senior experience in major organisations, public and private sectors: experts in aspects of futures, strategic planning and organisational development

• Also 56 Associates with specialist expertise e.g. Sectors: oil & gas, ICT, FS, construction, government, health, NGOs, renewables, infrastructure, transportFunctional specialists: risk, innovation, creative spaces, audio-visual communication, occupational psychology, reconfiguration -----

Who we are


• Contingency planning

• Scenarios

• Systems thinking

• Complexity theory

• Ethnographic Futures

Futures Thinking


Imagine 2011 in 1981

Technology• WWW• Mobile Phones• iPOD/PAD/Phone• DAB• DTT,HDTV,3DTV• Wii,Xbox360,PS3

• BUT AI?, VideoConf?, Concorde 2, Bullet trains, FTTH, Flying cars…

What about?• Chelsea FC owned by a

Russian• BRICs• Global Terrorism• Climate Change• Bollywood• HIV/AIDS


• 20% will happen as consensus• 15% will happen but slower than consensus• 5% will happen faster than consensus• 15% will be superceded before it happens• 10% stalls/disappoints• 20% just doesn’t happen• 15% is off Radar

My experience over 30 years

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Three Horizons

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Source: Bill Sharpe, Three Horizons, Patterning of Hope, Triarchy Press, 2013


• Standards Wars• WIIFM• Infrastructure lags• Long-term capacity developments

Repeating problems

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• Desired ( my plan)• Desirable ( Plan B)• Plausible ( time to rethink?)• Consensus ( my contrarian plan)• Unpleasant ( don’t want to go there)

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What type of future?

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• Modern Myths• This time it’s different…• Putting New in front of everything..• Everything has a history• Revolution or cohort effects• Roadblocks (IPv6?)

Beware….

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“The problem is that companies just don’t get Web 2.0.

The benefits are out there and the tools are cheap. Planning is expensive and wasteful. Get on with realising the benefits”

A Social Media guru

• While at the same time...• Predicted 100%

compound growth for 5 years

• All existing services would still be there and free

• Values of today’s teenagers would still be their values in 10 years

• Governments wouldn’t regulate...


Unpicking Assumptions

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Cavaliers

RoundheadsRight

Wrong

Repulsive Romantic

1066 and All That

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BroadVision

?FocussedTheme

HighCredibility

Low Credibility

Wrong Right

The futurists dilemma

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EconomicChange

Strategic Response

cyclical

structural

Reactive Proactive

Market Step Change

Sitting Tight Mopping up

Niche Portfolio


Dimensions of the current challenge

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EconomicChange

Strategic Response

cyclical

structural

Reactive Proactive

Market Step Change

Sitting Tight Mopping up

Niche Portfolio

New Entrant


Dynamics of the current challenge

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Do we know whereWe are going?

Do we knowHow to getThere?

NO YES

NO

YES

TASK:OperationalManagement

TASK:DirectionSetting

TASK:ProcessDevelopment

TASK:ConceptCreation

After Eddie Obeng

Best practice

Next practice Emerging practice

Scaling practice


Problem types

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Low

Low

High

HighUncertainty

Com

plex

ity

Academic/Expert

Consultant

PoliticalSystem

Wisdom ofThe Crowds

ThinkTank


Whose problem?

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Low

Low

High

HighUncertainty

Com

plex

ity

Academic/Expert

Consultant

PoliticalSystem

Wisdom ofThe Crowds

ThinkTank

IdeasTrack record

Knowledge


What value?

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Low

Low

High

HighUncertainty

Com

plex

ity

Academic/Expert

Consultant

PoliticalSystem

Wisdom ofThe Crowds

ThinkTank

Consultancy squeezed as limited track record


During step change

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“In the Future blind people willbe able to drive cars”


Timing

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• Probability 0.9 with some 0.2• Today with Resources: 1-3 years• In practice: 3-10 years• In reality: 10-100 years


Results

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• Today!!!• Prisoners of Language• Timing• Unintended consequences• Sources of Innovation• Ask the wrong question/people?• Culture• Events

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Why do we get it wrong?

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• Societies taboos• Bubbles• Poor data for emerging trends• Examples

– Police– Paedophiles– Education– International/global interconnectivity


Not understanding today…

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• Inevitability-Predictability• Risk and uncertainty• Unforseen barriers• Social factors• Long-term skill developments


Timing

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Manufacturer Active Process

User Active process

Source: Eric Von Hippel, MIT

Source of Innovation


• Open Innovation has a 200 year history• Innovation with lead users preceded the

internet• Professional solve their own problems• Big shift in computing is that consumers

not industry in the driving seat.

Innovation


• Bouba• Kiki


A Rose by any other name..

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Learning from the edge: Synesthesia

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• 1,000,000 cars• People will always want shoes• Classroom of the Future• Library with no books• 5 Computers


Prisoners of Language

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“ What do you teach a child at 5 years oldso that they will be IT Literate at 20?”


Who do you ask?

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• The different disciplines involved• The hardware doesn’t exist• The software hasn’t been written• Some of the key companies haven’t yet been

formed

So who do you ask?


Core to the problem..

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• Specialists and generalists• Personal credibility• Tolerance of uncertainty• Story telling• Leadership


Organisational culture

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• 9/11• BSE• Coalition Government• Middle East: Tunisia, Egypt......

• BLACK SWANS


Events

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• Web 2.0 bubble?• IPv4 to IPv6 transition• Sustainability of

Free/Freemium..• Impact of Regulation, e.g.

EU• Privacy, security• Business models?• Interdependencies...

• IPR regimes• Everything has a

history...?• Demographics....• Energy Security• Public/Private Clouds


Uncertainties Today

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Overoptimism or hype?


It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law

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Hofstadter’s Law


Any Questions?My BCS blog: http://www.bcs.org/content/conBlog/20

Twitter: @chris_yapp


Thank You!

© SAMI Consulting

http://www.bcs.org/content/conBlog/20