CFS-CIF E-lecture Series 2020 The Canadian Forest Service ... … · CFS-CIF E-lecture Series 2020 The Canadian Forest Service: Stories of Science Impacting Practice ... as represented
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The science in this presentation comes from researchers who
worked for/with CFS. Some I was lucky enough to work with.
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Herb Beall, Charlie Van Wagner, Jim Harrington, Ben Wang, Kit Yeatman, Kris Morgenstern, Peter Copis. Not pictured: Mark Hoslt (genetics), James (Jim) Wright (fire), Mike Wotton (fire), Mike Flannigan (fire), Kurt Johnsen (genetics), Marg Penner (G&Y). Lakehead University: Bill Parker, Mark Lesser, Ashley Thomson.Photos: Don Leckie, Donnie McPhee, Peter Murphy
Topics in this presentation: - Provenance Trials: what are they, what are they good for?- Climate Change predictions then and now.- Why the origins of the Canadian wildland fire system matter.
1985: Will local be the best going forward? D.F.W.Pollard For. Chron. Vol.61(4)
1989: “Climatic warming will result in a northward relocation of the zone of maximum growth of a given tree species.” CIF brief to House of Commons. For. Chron. Vol.66(2)
2nd Impact from p-tests: Is Local Best in a changing climate?
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Matyas (1994) used data from 56 jack pine sources transferred to three Ontario
locations to demonstrate the possibility and limitations of using provenance tests in
climate change modeling.
Concept meeting Oct. 5,6 1999: Goal: “Scientifically develop predictive models quantifying the response of natural and planted forests to climate change.”
Lakehead University Bill Parker and students: 2001 measured 410 white spruce series, 2003 measured 353 black spruce series, 2005 measured the 255 jack pine series.
“new seed transfer policy for the province ...which will update ....and advances in science and climate change modeling.Ken Elliot, OMNRF, 2017
Quebec's seed zones were updated to ecological regions and transfers 0.5o south and 1o north as well as 300 m of elevational change (Deshaies and Rainville2007).
Alberta revised its policy in 2009 to allow northward and upward transfers (Gray and Hamann 2011).
Topics in this presentation: - Provenance Trials: assisted migration, Beachburgwhite spruce.- Climate Change predictions then and now.- Why the origins of the Canadian wildland fire system matters.
In an Upper Peninsula Michigan test of a simple design, white spruce of a Beachburg, Ontario provenance grew 17.5 percent taller
The fastest growing population in Maryland is of the Beachburg Ontario provenance. This provenance has been widely tested and has consistently been among the most productive.
Fowler and Coles (1977) have
described a program to develop a
source of Ottawa River Valley seeds in
the Maritimes.
On the basis of consistently good performance, a Beachburg, Ontario, source is recommended for use in Minnesota planting programs.
In the East, a source centered around Beachburg and Douglas in the Ottawa River Valley has proven superior in the Lake States, New England, and southern portions of the range in eastern Canada.
Epilogue• Provenance tests give us the ability to model and evaluate
choices for planting trees adapted to the climate of the future.
• The robust ability of superior sources such as Beachburg/OVWS that grow well in many environments may take an even more prominent role in future reforestation/afforestation efforts in response to climate change.
• Original s2444 gene pool lost in-situ, ex-situ only conservation.
Topics in this presentation: - Provenance Trials: assisted migration, Beachburgwhite spruce.- Climate Change predictions then and now.- Why the origins of the Canadian wildland fire system matters.
Topics in this presentation: - Provenance Trials: assisted migration, Beachburgwhite spruce.- Climate Change predictions then and now.- Why the origins of the Canadian wildland fire system matters.
• In speaking about CC and fire regimes in 1987: “The outcome could range all the way from an increase in seasonal severity well within the present range to a challenge so profound as to shake fire management to its foundation.”http://cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/pubwarehouse/pdfs/23548.pdf page 119.
• Crown fires more likely • Days when fire intensities could exceed the capabilities of suppression resources (even airtankers) increases substantially• Increased number of fires• Increased incidence of unmanageable crown fire.
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Wotton, Flannigan, and Marshall. 2017 Potential climate change impacts on fire intensity and key wildfire suppression thresholds in Canada. Environ. Res. Lett 12 095003
what are the predictions now?Wotton, Flannigan, and Marshall. 2017. Potential climate change impacts on fire intensity and key wildfire suppression
thresholds in Canada. Environ. Res. Lett 12 095003
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Figure 5. Percent change from baseline period in the mean number of days where fireline intensity (at the head of a fire) exceeds 10 MW m1 for the RCP8.5 scenario. >10Mwm1 airtankers are not effective. Red in the right hand figure indicates going from 8 days to 52 days.
The science in this presentation came from researchers who
worked for/with CFS. Some I was lucky enough to work with.
50
Herb Beall, Charlie Van Wagner, Jim Harrington, Ben Wang, Kit Yeatman, Kris Morgenstern, Peter Copis. Not pictured: Mark Hoslt (genetics), James (Jim) Wright (fire), Mike Wotton (fire), Mike Flannigan (fire), Kurt Johnsen (genetics), Marg Penner (G&Y). Lakehead University: Bill Parker, Mark Lesser, Ashley Thomson.Photos: Don Leckie, Donnie McPhee, Peter Murphy