CeTIM Prof. Dr. Bernhard Katzy holds a PhD in industrial management from the University of Technology (RWTH) Aachen in Germany and a second PhD (habilitation)

德国慕尼黑联邦国防大学、荷兰莱顿大学 CeTIM 董事长 • Prof. Dr. Bernhard Katzy holds a PhD

in industrial management from the University of Technology (RWTH) Aachen in Germany and a second PhD (habilitation) in general management from University of St. Gallen, Switzerland. He is lecturing MBA and Executive MBA courses at leading European business schools, e.g. St. Gallen University, Rotterdam School of Management, European Business School and ESADE Barcelona. He is professor at the University BW Munich and at the University of Leiden. He is the founder of CeTIM – Center for Technology and Innovation Management, which is located at University Bw Munich and Leiden University School of Management. His research interest is about entrepreneurial management of fast growing high-tech firms and the emerging industrial structures for the information age.

Roadmapping Mobile and Digital (Broadcasting) Convergence R&D 2015

移动与数字融合成长曲线 2015

Prof. Dr. Bernhard R. Katzy, CeTIM Xiaofeng Ma, CeTIM

CeTIM.org

Presentation Outline

• ROADiBROM introduction

• Scenario of Future Media Industry Structure

• the ROADiBROM workshops

ROADiBROM isa joint European – China strategic roadmap about “Mobile and digital broadcasting convergence ”

The objective is to:develop a strategic roadmap for R&D priorities until 2015 in Europe and China.

Intended Outcome:Joint Europe and China Think-tank on digital convergence(NEM International Cooperation)

Funded by European Commission (IST-045437: ROADIBROM – SSA)

Background of Roadibrom

A balanced EU-China Project Consortium

Why digital convergence?

Media convergence

– Video – Voice – Data

Device convergence:

– Computer – TV – Mobile Phone

Technology Push:

Business & Societal Impact:

Changes of Individual livingEmerging business modelsImpact on society

Investigating:• What will the

converged world looks like?

• What are the critical choices we confront with?

• How to take the opportunities of the new emerging industry?

China has been increasing its role in the high tech industries,

e.g. 3G, Wireless Communication, and Mobile digital broadcasting etc.

China does not have a national standard for Mobile digital broadcasting

China verified as a big market for the mobile phone (480 Million users 2006)

The metropolian cities in China (e.g. Shanghai, Beijing) are ideal location for the deployment of mobile multimedia services.

Why China?

Strategic dialogue between EU and China is important NOW

Media Industry at the verge of disruptive change?!

Will it happen or not?How will it happen?What will come out?

(Moore 1991)

Disruptive Innovationimplies change of institutions, firms, industries…

Time

Rate ofInnovation

Process Innovation

ProductInnovation

FluidPattern

TransitionalPattern

SpecificPattern

Dominant Design

THE ABERNATHY MODEL OF DOMINANT DESIGN

Industry level change

20152007

Technology (Product) Innovation DECREASE,

Business and institutional Change just START!

How specific patterns look like? How they are developed?

Governments:

• Need to change of focus of R&D funding from technology development to social and service innovation

Companies:

• Incumbent probably disappear if no effective strategic change actions • entrants will emerge

What does it imply for Governments and industries

Signs:

• Nokia and Siemens carve out the network and phone business• Nokia is becoming a media company• Google is regarded as the most valuable media company though• not produce any content itself

Roadmap is a strategic management tool for International Innovation

Scenario

- Make expectations (hopes and fears) explicit

- Judge on likely hood of alternative scenarios

- Analyze implications

Identify gap between state-of-art and the specific Pattern

Time order Gaps (and R&D actions)= roadmap

The specific Pattern

Relevant dimensions of transformation

1. Present Critical R&D challenges from China and European stakeholders

2. Strategic dialogue between workshop participants about the critical R&D issues (transformation process)

Workshop Objective

Presentation Outline

• ROADiBROM introduction

• Scenario of Future Media Industry Structure

• the ROADiBROM workshops

Technology view: • Seamless network(s) converge voice, video and data • in an invisible way for users, who will be able to • access services anywhere and anyhow.

User view: • Communities of users supported by • community coaches will become most active in • user centric service offerings with • renowned brands,

Future Media Industry Scenario

Device view:

•Ambient and context sensitive (sensor) will make devices “disappear” towards wearable /mobile miniature.

Value Chain View:

• Network / Telecom operators offer infrastructure, • Broadcasters will mutate in community coaches,• Content production cost will disappear with “crowd sourcing” and therefore DRM will vanish. • Advertisement will mutate from campaign design to managing 1-to-1 communications, which• will fund communities and dedicated professional content production

Future Media Industry Scenario

Early Examples of of a digital converged world

Execution Saddam Hussein

Technology:- Filmed with mobile phone- Distributed within hours by YouTube

Industry Change:- Production cost “Zero”- Distributions cost “Zero”- No journalist involved:

freedom of interpretation / uncontrollable- No broadcasting stations

Presentation Outline

• ROADiBROM introduction

• Scenario of Future Media Industry Structure

• the ROADiBROM workshops

The Brussels workshop on 11th Oct

35 participants from 10 Countries, discussed the critical challenges:

•Technology and Device•Value Chain and Service

The Shanghai workshop on 2nd and 3rd Nov

70 participants, discussing the critical challenges from•Technology and device•Service and Value Chain

The Overview of the ROADiBROM activities

European workshops China Workshops

11th Oct 2007, Brussels:•Technology and Devices•Service and Value Chain

2nd and 3rd Nov 2007, Shanghai•Technology and Devices•Service and Value Chain

6th March 2008, Amsterdam•Policy and regulation•Service and Value Chain

6th and 7th Dec 2007, Beijing•Policy and regulation•Service and Value Chain

March 2008, Munich•Consolidation of results

Early April 2008, Shanghai•Consolidation of results

www.ve-forum.org/digital convergence

谢谢 !

Thank you!