CESM is primarily sponsored by the National Science Foundation and the Department of Energy e CESM Societal Dimensions Working Group CESM Advisory Board Update Co-chairs: Lawrence Buja (NCAR) Bill Collins (LBNL) Bill Gutowski (ISU) Brian O’Neill (NCAR) February 27-28, 2013
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CESM Societal Dimensions Working Group · CESM simulations to inform water management Coordination with CORDEX to provide regional climate change information and data for impacts
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CESM is primarily sponsored by the National Science Foundation and the Department of Energy e
CESM Societal Dimensions
Working Group
CESM Advisory Board Update
Co-chairs:
Lawrence Buja (NCAR) Bill Collins (LBNL)
Bill Gutowski (ISU) Brian O’Neill (NCAR)
February 27-28, 2013
CESM is primarily sponsored by the National Science Foundation and the Department of Energy e
Outline
Process: formation, participation, progress
Water: original goals, progress to date
IAM: original goals, progress to date
Challenges, next steps
CESM is primarily sponsored by the National Science Foundation and the Department of Energy e
SDWG Background
Growing interest within CCSM/CESM to better connect the
modeling activity to climate-related societal issues
Initial meeting at the 2010 CCSM Workshop
May 2011 scoping workshop & White Paper
July 2011 Working Group approved by CCSM SSC
Three open working group meetings to date
CESM is primarily sponsored by the National Science Foundation and the Department of Energy e
Chemistry
Climate
BioGeo
Chem
Software Engineering
Variability & Change
Polar
Climate
Land
Model
PaleoClimate
Ocean
Model
CESM Structure
WACCM
Lnd Ice
Atm
Model
CCSM is primarily sponsored by the National Science Foundation and the Department of Energy
CESM Scientific Steering Committee
(Marika Holland, Chief Scientist)
CESM Advisory Board
CESM Management
Working Groups Development Application
Societal Dimensions
CESM is primarily sponsored by the National Science Foundation and the Department of Energy e
CESM and Societal Dimensions
CESM
WATER IA
Develop collaborations between the CESM community & those
working on issues relating societal dimensions and climate change
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Meetings
Winter meetings back-to-back-to-back with LMWG, BGCWG (last year also with Chem-Clim)
½ day overlap – joint session with LMWG
Substantial participation
Winter 2012 ~30
Breckenridge 2012 ~70
Winter 2013 ~40
Meeting style: mixed bottom-up & top-down
Bottom up: communicate work on any relevant topics with a societal dimension
Top down: focus on highest priority areas, as identified by community
CESM is primarily sponsored by the National Science Foundation and the Department of Energy e
Selected Participants IAM groups
NCAR MIT PBL/IMAGE
JGCRI/DOE IIASA
Impact modelers
Stanford GISS/AgMIP CLM modelers
Univ Illinois Purdue/GTAP
Water Stakeholders
Tampa Bay Water Denver Water
SF Public Utilities Commission US Bureau of Reclamation
US Army Corps of Engineers
Water Scientists
NCAR Iowa State University DOE/PNNL
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Interaction with community
Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC)
2 general presentations, iESM special session
Latin America Modeling Project
Planned participation of SDWG in providing simulations, participating in land use uncertainty comparison
Agricultural Model Inter-comparison Project (AgMIP)
SDWG participants also participate in global and (future) N. American activities; AgMIP talks at SDWG
North-American CORDEX
Water special session on connecting the global CESM scales to the regional/local decision scales via downscaling, a goal of CORDEX
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SDWG Proposed Water Runs:
Improving CESM Hydrology by reducing model uncertainty and bias
(Community Runs 2A1, 2A2)
Providing relevant Hydroclimate variables for downscaling & decision making
(Community Runs 2A4, 2B1)
Simulating the impacts of climate change on important precipitation
systems, focusing on short timescales, extremes & means,
4AB American monsoon and Droughts in the American southwest
only received part of request, address 4AB through existing runs
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SDWG IAM Runs:
IAM: Linking new CLM Agricultural, Forest Systems & Ecosystem Dynamics
and Integrated Assessment Modeling (1A, 1B)
3A. interpreting IA model land use scenarios in CESM,
3B. assessing the importance of regional climate feedbacks,
3C. assessing the importance of model coupling, and
3D. evaluating possible future activities in the area of air quality.
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Successful funding proposals
NSF EaSM2, Water: Advanced Climate and Regional Model
Validation for Societal Applications: Bridging the global
modeling & decision scales.
NCAR, Iowa State University, Water Utility Climate Alliance
NSF EaSM2, IAM: Linking IAMs and CESM to assess impacts
on urban, agricultural, and forest areas
NCAR, Univ. Illinois, Univ. Kansas, Arizona State Univ.
CESM is primarily sponsored by the National Science Foundation and the Department of Energy e
Water: Goals and Activities
Goals
Improved understanding and simulation of climate impacts on hydrology
Making CESM research and output more relevant to water sector
Challenges
Single model vs. multi-model frameworks
High resolution
Hydrological modeling
Types of Activities
Pilot project: CESM simulations to inform water management
Develop best practices for improving science-planning interface
Contributing to Climate Services development
Source: White Paper on Societal Dimensions of Earth System Modeling.
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Water: Progress
CESM simulations to inform water management
Coordination with CORDEX to provide regional climate change
information and data for impacts assessment, operations
planning and policy
Improving science-planning interface
Development of metrics for evaluating CESM hydrology for use
in operational planning
Long-term engagement between the research and
applications community
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Water: Research Questions
How can we make "better" methodological choices in impact assessments, and how is climate information used to inform decision-making and planning?
How does our portrayal of uncertainty depend on these methodological choices?
How do we do the hydrological modeling, in terms of choice/construction of forcing datasets, hydrologic model(s), and calibration methods?
Is the portrayal of impacts consistent with our understanding of the system?
How does expert knowledge enter into the decision-making and planning processes of the different water management agencies?
What are the best approaches for bridging scales from global CESM modeling to regional and local decisions?
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IAM: Goals
“improving understanding of interactions between human and
Earth systems, in a manner that builds the capacity of both
the CESM and the IAM community.”
“It is possible that a long-term “backbone activity” – such as
development of capacity for full linkage between CESM and
IAMs – would be a useful component of the group.”
“leverage existing activities in the research community and look
for key opportunities to add value” (RCP/CMIP5, EMF, iESM,
AgMIP)
“include participation from the impacts, adaptation and
vulnerability (IAV) community”
Source: White Paper on Societal Dimensions of Earth System Modeling.
CESM is primarily sponsored by the National Science Foundation and the Department of Energy e
IAM topics of interest
Land use
Air quality, climate, and impacts
Urbanization and health impacts
Reduced-form models of CESM
Coastal inundation and sea level rise
Methodological issues (uncertainty, scale)
CH4, N2O modeling
Poverty, land degradation
Water in IAMs
Source: White Paper on Societal Dimensions of Earth System Modeling.
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IAM: Types of Activities
“provide a forum for shared experiences, learning and
collaboration among IAM groups already interacting with
CESM, or interested in doing so.”
“identify and carry out analyses of broad use to the
community that involved both CESM and IAMs”
“develop and facilitate less computationally intensive
versions of CESM for use in IA modeling”
“provide software infrastructure development that
facilitates the integration of IAMs and CESM”
Source: White Paper on Societal Dimensions of Earth System Modeling.
iESM multi-phase coupling strategy
GCAM CLM/CESM GLM
Climate
C stocks,
productivity
Up/down scaling
(space and time)
Fossil fuel
emissions
GHGs, Aerosols, etc
iESM Experiment 0 (RCP 4.5)
iESM
Experiment 1
Terrestrial
Feedbacks
iESM experiment 0: Bioenergy scenarios with one-way coupling
Information flow: IA to downscaling to Earth System Model
Sanity check: Does the one-way pass of information replicate the original RCP4.5 simulation done in CMIP5?
Policy sensitivity: For different policy but same concentration pathway, does the evolution of the climate system differ?
Experiment 0: Contrast two pathways:
RCP4.5 – carbon price on all carbon (UCT)
RCP4.5 – carbon price ONLY on fossil carbon (FFICT)
Janetos, Jones, et al, 2012
Jones et al, 2012
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20
Temperature
change from first
(2005-2015) to
last (2091-2100)
decade
Global Mean Temp Change
Annual 2m Temp
RCP 4.5
RCP 4.5
Alternative
LU Policy
Source: Andy Jones. LBL.
Experiment 1.2 underway
Experiment includes feedbacks on land productivity from CLM to GCAM.
These feedbacks alter agriculturally-driven land allocation in GCAM.
This experiment has illuminated many issues with the RCP conceptual framework and implementation in AR5.
However, the team is still working to reconcile:
Three different representations of plants and crops in GCAM, GLM, and CLM.
Three different treatments of the carbon cycle in the same models.
The team is confident these issues can be resolved.
CESM is primarily sponsored by the National Science Foundation and the Department of Energy e