CERTeT VISIONS AND PERSPECTIVES ON THE FUTURE OF SUSTAINABLE, SHARED AND SMART MOBILITY Gabriele Grea*, Giuseppe Siciliano* *Center for Research on Regional.

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VISIONS AND PERSPECTIVES ON THE FUTURE OF SUSTAINABLE, SHARED AND SMART MOBILITY

Gabriele Grea*, Giuseppe Siciliano*

*Center for Research on Regional Economics, Transport and Tourism Bocconi University Milan

XV Riunione Scientifica della Società Italiana di Economia dei Trasporti e della Logistica (SIET) "Trasporti, organizzazione spaziale e sviluppo economico sostenibile", Venezia 18-20 settembre 2013

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Transport, mobility, FREEDOM

Transport

Demand for transport is a derived demand, depending from the demand of other economic sectors. Users «consume» transport services in order to access other goods or services.

Relevant variables: time, space, cost.

Mobility

Mobility can be considered as a functionality/capability.User is the core, accessing services under given «constraints».

Relevant variables: time, space, cost, experience/accessibility FREEDOM.

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Turning constraints into opportunities (I)

Some facts

• More than 60% of EU citizens live in urban areas, where 85% of GDP is produced.

• Because of congestion costs, 1% of UE GDP is lost every year.

• Traffic contribution to CO2 production is 40%.

• One third of road fatalities happens in urban environment (and victims are mainly walkers or bikers).

From EC Green Paper “Towards a new culture for urban mobility” (september 2007)

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Sustainable development approach:

Use of environmental, cultural and economic resources, minimizing external effects at local and global level;

Meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs;

Maintaining attractiveness and competitiveness of the local environment.

Turning constraints into opportunities (II)

Sustainable mobility is a "win-win strategy" because it combines environmental and economic advantages with the stimulus to economic growth and the livability of cities.

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Users, how will behave?

I. SUSTAINABLE

Quality of environment

Energy consumption/production

Safety

Global emissions

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II. SHARE

Space

Vehicles

Information and knowledge

Travel experiences

Users, how will behave?

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III. SMART

SUSTAINABLE

SHARED

Seamless

Flexible

Maximising our value of time

Looking for innovative and added value

services

Users, how will behave?

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How to measure Smart Mobility?

The objective

To measure and compare the degree of smartness of a meaningful panel of Italian cities in terms of mobility. This area is particularly relevant in terms of impact for the life of the city population, and so is the potential impact of technological advances and of policy innovations.

The ratio

The indicator favours cities which allow their citizen to meet the following needs:

• To travel safely – which we consider as a fundamental requirement, in light of both technological developments in terms of vehicle design, and the increased efficiency of transport services which can replace the private one.

• To travel seamlessly – it is the conceptual key pillar of the concept of “intelligent mobility”, in light of the complexity of trips which happen in an urban environment and to all related critical issues.

• To be connected to global networks – it is relevant in order to measure the seamlessness of the inside of a city with its outside (accessibility to/from other nodes of the global network).

OBJECTIVE AND RATIO

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How to measure Smart Mobility?

METHODOLOGYA performance indicator is associated to each need, which measures the degree in which the need is met in each city. The variables are selected so that they can represent the use-benefits-possibilities generated by the mobility systems, rather than sheer indicators of endowment.

The Smart Mobility Indicator of city i is then defined as Mi

Where is a correction of the performance indicator P of the city i for the need n defined as:

Where p is the “smartness threshold” chosen for the indicator P.

Such smartness thresholds have been introduced in order to favour cities in which results are good for all the indicators involved: we include completeness in the evaluation of smartness, as the ability to generate an “intelligent” environment in terms of all the defined needs. On the contrary, if a city is a best practice in only one of the needs, but emerges as “not smart” in other areas, the indicator will handicap it.

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A Smart Mobility indicatorfor Italian citiesPERFORMANCE INDICATORS

Need Performance indicator

Notes

To travel safely Accident rates Fatalities per 100 inhabitants (source: Euromobility)

To travel seamlessly

Seamless mobility indicator

An ad hoc indicator which sums up data concerning: LPT demand (LPT pax / population, avg 2008-2010) Use of car sharing (users /population - Euromobility) Use of bike sharing (users/population + available

bikes/population – Euromobility) Avg speed of LPT vehicles (ASSTRA – Anci) A premium is given for City Logistics practices

To be connected to global networks

Air accessibility indicator

An average of the Intercontinental and the Continental air accessibility indicators as calculated by Certet-Unioncamere , which consider:- Frequency of flights from the city to all

destinations- Economic importance of such destinations

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A Smart Mobility indicatorfor Italian citiesRESULTS

35 Mobilità Incidentalità Connettività Mobilità integrata

Bari 12,7 27,8 6,1 26,7

Bologna 28,8 41,7 23,6 34,4

Bolzano 20,4 41,0 - 33,0

Firenze 22,5 33,3 16,1 33,1

Genova 30,7 55,6 8,6 38,3

Milano 61,3 31,3 80,5 66,6

Napoli 28,6 83,3 18,9 22,4

Palermo 27,2 96,2 7,3 23,8

Roma 63,4 62,5 96,7 43,7

Trieste 33,3 100,0 2,6 32,5

Torino 37,3 66,7 14,6 40,7

Venezia 55,9 50,0 37,2 69,6

Verona 17,0 40,0 13,0 24,8

Performance indicators are summed by means of a weight vector:Low accident rates: 0,2Connectivity to global networks: 0,3Seamlessness urban mobility: 0,5

Thematic icons show if the city meets the smartness threshold in each area (green), or is close to it (yellow) or fall definitely short (red).

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The car of the future

Energy efficient *

Eco- friendly *

*IBM Automotive Global Study 2020

What about cars then?

Driverless

Modular

Specialized

Connected

…

«The emergence of a new automobile DNA (…) promises a renassaince in vehicles design. It will open up for exploration spaces of design possibilities that have never before seriously considered.

(Mitchell W. J. et. Al, Reinventing the automobile, MIT Press 2010)

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And in the end, is it still just about making cars?

Automotive sector:

New products

New services

Business models

Supply chains

Service providers:

Specific services (e. g. fleet

management, car rental, etc.)

Wider range of (sustainable)

mobility services, B2B and B2C

Users:

CAR OWNERS MOBILITY CONSUMERS

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And now, an idea coming from far away…

“Within a year, I hope, we shall begin the manufacture of an electric automobile. (…) Mr. Edison and I have been working for some years on an electric automobile which would be cheap and practicable. Cars have been built for experimental purposes, and we are satisfied now that the way is clear to success. The problem so far has been to build a storage battery of light weight which would operate for long distances without recharging. Mr. Edison has been experimenting with such a battery for some time.”

(Henry Ford, New York Times interview 11.1.1914).

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… will be possible tomorrow?

Source: M. de Saint-Chéron , Mobilitytech Milan, Oct 19th 2010

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E-mobility: which factors are driving the system?

VEICHLES(supply)

USERS(demand)

INSTITUTIONAL CONTEXT

(rules)

SOCIOECONOMIC BACKGROUND

(models)

HARDWARE INTERACTIONS

(networks)

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Vehicles - Batteries and OEMs plans

Batteries:Performance 150 km to 300 km.Duration from 3 years (1000 deep discharge) to 10 (in ten years).Costs from 700-1000 $/kWh, to 300$-400$.

OEMs plans:

Source: JRC ipts 2010, Nemry F., Brons M., Plug-in Hybrid and Battery Electric vehicles

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Scenarios and forecasts

Comparison of scenarios in terms of vehicle sales (EU level)

Source: JRC ipts 2010, Nemry F., Brons M., Plug-in Hybrid and Battery Electric vehicles

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Scenarios and forecasts

2020 2030

New car sales B1_I1 B1_I2 B2_I1 B2_I2 B1_I1 B1_I2 B2_I1 B2_I2

Conventional94,5%

90,2%

92,0%

85,7%

84,6%

58,5%

80,0%

38,4%

PHEV 5,0% 8,9% 6,4%11,4%

13,5%

32,5%

15,4%

32,6%

BEV 0,5% 0,9% 1,6% 2,9% 1,9% 9,0% 4,7%29,0%

New car sales shares in 2020 and 2030

Source: JRC ipts 2010, Nemry F., Brons M., Plug-in Hybrid and Battery Electric vehicles

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Users - Electro mobility strategic Diagram

“non-mainstream people, with different connotations ranging from "a computer expert or enthusiast" to "a person heavily

interested in a hobby“ (…)”[wikipedia]

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Hardware interactions: impacts on the grid

Source: JRC ies 2009, Perujo A., Ciuffo B. Potential Impact of Electric Vehicles on the Electric Supply System

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22 Source: JRC ies 2009, Perujo A., Ciuffo B. Potential Impact of Electric Vehicles on the Electric Supply System

Hardware interactions: impacts on the grid

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Business models for mobility

a. Product orientedb. Service oriented

Use (e.g. car sharing, fleet management, etc.) Result (transport services)

Approach to classification of business models for electric mobility, based on 3 driver clusters: vehicle + battery infrastructure integration grid + vehicle

Business models

Source: Lerch et al. (2010)

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Business model drivers: vehicle+battery

Source: Lerch et al. (2010)

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Business model drivers: infrastructure

Source: Lerch et al. (2010)

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Business model drivers: infrastructure+vehicle

Source: Lerch et al. (2010)

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Conclusions

Behavioral approach to mobility, how smart will we be?

How to measure the level of smartness for mobility in cities?

How mobility will be demanded, provided, «consumed»?

Electromobility and energy: which future, integration, business models?

CERTeT For feedbacks and further discussion:

Gabriele Grea [email protected] gabgreaGoogle hangouts [email protected]

“If we don’t start imagining this future, and then start trying to help shape this future, we’re going to be left behind, because this future is going to happen with or without us”

Bill Ford jr, 2013

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!