The Quest: Energy, Security and the Future of Economic
GrowthPerspectives from CERAWeek 2012SPECiAl REPoRtReprinted from
The Wall Street Journal the Quest: Energy, Security and the Future
of Economic Growth: CERAWeek 2012 special sections, March 68, 2012,
these articles feature iHS CERA and iHS Global insight experts on
irans Ambitions and World oil the Great Revival: the Western
Hemispheres oil Renaissance Energy, Jobs and Economic Growth the
New Frontier: New oil from old Fields Nuclear Power: taking a long
View Getting to Scale: Renewable Energy in an Era of Austerity the
Rise of Unconventional Natural Gas in China: Wild Card for World
Markets? Brazil: the Rising oil Power Jobs and income: the impact
of Shale Gas on the US Economy
CERA
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ThE QUEST: EnErGy, SEcUriTy And ThE FUTUrE oF Economic GrowTh
PErSPEcTivES From cErAwEEk 2012kEy imPlicATionSthe articles in this
iHS CERA Special Report, published in The Wall Street Journal
during CERAWeek 2012, examine how the world energy system is
evolving amidst economic and political uncertainties and rapid
technological change. Some of the key insights are irans nuclear
program is causing disquiet not only in the United States and
Europe but also among the countries of the Persian Gulf. Rising
tensions triggered by irans nuclear ambitions are having a major
effect on the global oil market. The western hemisphere is emerging
as the surprising new locus of world oil. Growing production from
Canadas oil sands, tight oil in the United States, and the
Brazilian offshore will increase the northward and southward
movement of oil within the hemisphere and cause more oil from the
Persian Gulf to flow to East Asia. with the world economy still
recovering from the financial crisis, governments in many countries
are looking to the energy sector as a source of growth and jobs.
innovative technologies are allowing more oil to be extracted from
existing fields. through the application of these techniques,
existing fields have become a crucial resource for meeting the
worlds growing oil demand. nuclear plants currently provide nearly
20% of the electricity used in the United States. if construction
of a new generation of nuclear plants does not start soon, this
source of low-carbon power generation may be lost. Although
progress was slowed by the financial crisis, the renewable sector
achieved remarkable gains over the past decade. But even with rapid
continued growth, renewables are likely to generate only 15% of the
worlds electricity in 2030. in recent years, china has greatly
increased its imports of natural gas. As a result, gas producers
around the world look to china as a promising market. But a wild
cardChinas own supplies of unconventional gascould change the
future supply picture. After discovering vast new offshore oil
deposits, Brazil envisions becoming a major global oil producer and
a leader in offshore technology. Achieving both of these objectives
simultaneously may prove challenging. The shale gas industry has
already created nearly 600,000 jobs in the United States, and this
figure is projected to grow to nearly 900,000 by 2015. in addition,
lower energy prices enabled by the shale gas boom have added $1,000
in extra spending power to the budget of the average American
household. May 2012
2012, All rights reserved, iHS CERA inc. 55 Cambridge Parkway,
Cambridge, Massachusetts 02142. No portion of this report may be
reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without
prior written consent.
irAnS AmBiTionS And world oil
...............................................................................................
2By dAniEl yErGin
ThE GrEAT rEvivAl: ThE wESTErn hEmiSPhErES oil rEnAiSSAncE
................................ 5By dAniEl yErGin And JAmES
BUrkhArd
EnErGy, JoBS And Economic GrowTh
.....................................................................................
9By roBErTo BoccA And SAmAnThA GroSS
ThE nEw FronTiEr: nEw oil From old FiEldS
.....................................................................
11By PAUl mArkwEll, PETE STArk, lETA SmiTh, And SUryA rAJAn
nUclEAr PowEr: TAkinG A lonG viEw
....................................................................................
13By lAwrEncE mAkovich And JonE-lin wAnG
GETTinG To ScAlE: rEnEwABlE EnErGy in An ErA oF
AUSTEriTy................................... 16By AlEx klEin And
ATUl AryA
ThE riSE oF UnconvEnTionAl nATUrAl GAS in chinA: wild cArd For
world mArkETS?
............................................................................................
18By xizhoU zhoU And ShAnkAri SrinivASAn
BrAzil: ThE riSinG oil PowEr
...................................................................................................
21By EnriQUE SirA
JoBS And incomE: ThE imPAcT oF ShAlE GAS on ThE US
Economy...................................................................
23By mAry lAShlEy BArcEllA And John w. lArSon
IHS CERA Special Report
ThE QUEST: EnErGy, SEcUriTy And ThE FUTUrE oF Economic GrowTh
PErSPEcTivES From cErAwEEk 2012ovErviEw The energy industry is
facing new challenges in the prolonged Great Economic Contraction
and resulting uncertainty over markets and demandand indeed the
very stability of the international system. At the same time, a
wave of innovationlargely focused on unconventional oil and gas,
transportation, the environment, and clean electric power
generationis giving rise to game-changing new technologies and
solutions. Other keys issues facing the industry include rising
geopolitical tensions and shifting regulatory and political agendas
in a US and European election year. This IHS CERA Special Report,
The Quest: Energy, Security and the Future of Economic Growth,
focuses on how the energy world is changing amidst all of this. In
this report, we address a series of issues: recent developments in
Iran, the great revival in Western Hemisphere oil production, how
the energy industry can be a source of economic growth and jobs,
the emergence of mature oil fields as a key resource, prospects for
nuclear power and renewables, the growing importance of natural gas
in China, Brazils oil boom, and the economic impact of shale gas in
the United States. We are pleased to provide the following articles
that explore these important topics, produced in partnership with
The Wall Street Journal. They were originally published in special
sections of the Journal during our 31st CERAWEEk conference in
Houston, Texas. CERAWEEk is recognized as the most prestigious
annual meeting for the global energy industry. This years
conference, held March 59, featured presentations and interactive
sessions by more than 200 senior executives, government officials,
thought leaders, and IHS CERA experts. Altogether over 2,000
participants, representing more than 50 countries, were in
attendance. The conference culminated with a special Thursday
evening and Friday program on Energy: The Next 30 Years. CERAWEEk
On Demand brought the conference to a wider network of virtual
participants. For more information, see
http://ceraweekondemand.com. As we mark our 31st CERAWEEk
conference, we invite you to join in a dialogue about the energy
future through our experts insights in these pages.
dAniEl yErGin iHS CERA Chairman and Chairman of CERAWeek
1 2012, iHS CERA inc. No portion of this report may be
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prior written consent.
IHS CERA Special Report
irAnS AmBiTionS And world oilby Daniel Yergin For 33 years,
Irans relations with its neighbors and the wider international
community have been marked by tension, conflict, and suspicion. But
in the last few months they have entered a new stage. There were
two periods, in the early 1990s and then again a few years later,
when some improvement in relations seemed possible. In the late
1990s, the reformist President Mohammed khatami proposed a Dialogue
of Civilizations with the United States, and President Bill Clinton
responded with a call to end the estrangement of our two nations.
But that was not to be. khatamis hardline opponents sought to
undermine his outreach. In 2005, the election of Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad as president brought any possibility of dialogue to an
end. Instead Iran accelerated its nuclear program. riSinG TEnSion
Today that program appears to be bringing Iran toward the brink of
a crisis with the international community. Last November, the
United Nations reported that Irans nuclear program indicated the
development of a nuclear weapons capability. Europe has followed up
with an embargo on Iranian oil, and the United States is putting in
place sanctions on Irans central bank. Iran has, at the same time,
threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz and conducted large-scale
naval exercises. The rising tension is sparking an increase in oil
and gasoline prices and generating worries about disruption in oil
supplies. An Iran with nuclear weapons would change the balance of
power in the Persian Gulf. Iran would be in a position, to borrow a
phrase that Franklin Roosevelt used prior to World War II, to
overawe its neighbors. Other countries in the region fear that Iran
would assert itself as the dominant regional power, capturing a
role it has sought for decades. Iran could directly threaten to use
the weapons in the regionor actually use themalthough the latter
would likely trigger a very large response. But such weapons could
also provide it with a license to project its power and influence
with what it might regard as impunity throughout the regionboth
directly and through its proxies. On top of all of that, Iran, as a
regional hegemonic nuclear power, would, in the view of the other
countries, be positioned to assert dominance more directly over the
flow and price of oil out of the Gulf. In short, Iranian possession
of such weapons would, at the very least, create insecurity for the
region and for world oil supplies. Many governments also fear that
some elements in the Iranian government would, if they have not
already done so, go into the proliferation business and provide
fissile material to other governments, to its proxies such as
Hezbollah in Lebanon, or to terrorist groups.
2 2012, iHS CERA inc. No portion of this report may be
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prior written consent.
IHS CERA Special Report
ASSESSinG inTEnTionS In general, the assessment of the impact of
a nations acquiring nuclear weapons depends not only on the
possession of the weapons themselves but also on the intentions of
those who hold them. And that is why the rhetoric from Tehran would
take on new significance were Iran to have those weapons.
Ahmadinejad has said that the ultimate mission of the Islamic
Republic is to prepare the way for the return of the Hidden Imam,
who disappeared in the ninth century but whose reappearance will be
necessarily preceded by a period of violent chaos and fiery war.
When the Mahdi returns, Ahmadinejad has added, he will destroy the
unjust who are not connected to the heavensby which he means the
United States, the rest of the West, and Israeland lead survivors
to the most perfect world. how mUch wE donT know Adding to the
danger is the lack of communication with Tehran, which could
increase the likelihood of an accident setting off a nuclear
confrontation. Even during the tensest Cold War times, the United
States and the Soviet Union had communication channels, including,
after the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, the hotline between the
White House and the kremlin to assure immediate contact during this
is indeed a new phase, and a more a crisis. No such channels exist
with Iran. critical one, in the contention over irans nuclear
program. one way or another, it will have great impact on the
global oil market. Indeed, in both Washington and Europe, the
frustration is frequently expressed that there is very little
understanding of how the regime functions, who makes decisions, and
how the factions compete for power. All this adds to the risk. The
lack of understanding also extends to the Gulf Arab states. The
great worry, observed a leader of one of the Gulf nations, is not
how much we know about Iran, but how much we dont. The alarm among
the other Gulf countries, as well as in Israel, about Irans
objectives has been rising in direct proportion to Irans progress
toward nuclear weapons capability. They fear that Iran will become
more aggressive in seeking regional hegemony and trying to
destabilize other regimes. As one Saudi put it, They want to
dominate the region, and they express it strongly and clearly. Many
of the Arabs believe that intermittent negotiations is a standard
Iranian tacticwhat one official described as their usual strategy
of leading you on with false promises, designed to buy more time.
Some Gulf Arabs are convinced that Iran is pursuing a strategy of
encirclement, from its presence in Iraq and subversion among the
Shia populations in Bahrain and eastern Saudi Arabia and in Yemen
to promoting insurgency on Saudi Arabias southern border to
financing and supplying weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas
in Gaza. This encirclement would pressure the Arab Gulf states and,
at the same time, put assets in position that Iran could activate
during some future time of tension or crisis. The outcome of the
current conflict in Syria, Irans one reliable ally in the Arab
world, will be another key element in the regional balance of
power.3 2012, iHS CERA inc. No portion of this report may be
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prior written consent.
IHS CERA Special Report
For years, the Israelis have spoken of a nuclear Iran as an
existential threat to the very survival of their nation and people.
Now some Arabs also describe Iran as an existential threat. As a
leader of one of the emirates put it, his country is only 46
seconds from Iran as measured by the flight time of a ballistic
missile. This is indeed a new phase, and a more critical one, in
the contention over Irans nuclear program. One way or another, it
will have great impact on the global oil market. This article is
adapted from Daniel Yergins new book, The Quest: Energy, Security,
and the Remaking of the Modern World. He received the Pulitzer
Prize for his history of world oil, The Prize: The Epic Quest for
Oil, Money and Power.
4 2012, iHS CERA inc. No portion of this report may be
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IHS CERA Special Report
ThE GrEAT rEvivAl: ThE wESTErn hEmiSPhErES oil rEnAiSSAncEby
Daniel Yergin and James Burkhard The oil industry was born in the
United States a century and a half ago in the hills of Western
Pennsylvania. And for the industrys first hundred years, the
Western Hemisphere was the leading petroleum-producing region in
the world. But after World War II oil production from the Middle
East began to grow spectacularly, a development that only
accelerated in the 1950s and 1960s. Over time, the Middle East
supplanted the Western Hemisphere as the center of world oil
production. This has shaped US energy policy and geopolitical
strategy ever since. A nEw EnErGy AxiS Now a new energy axis is
emerging, running from western Canada, through North Dakota and
Texas, to Brazil. It is leading to a revival in hemispheric oil
production, one with major implications not only for the energy
industry, but also for the world economy and geopolitics. This
shift was not due to a policy push to achieve energy independence;
rather, it has happened almost accidentally, a product of market
signals and quite separate initiatives and technological advances.
But together, these developments are leading to a major upgrade of
the hemispheres oil profile. The recent boom in hemispheric oil
production has come from supply sources that were marginal or even
nonfactors until recently: the oil sands in Canada, tight oil in
the United States, and presalt deposits in Brazil (see Figure 1).
ThE SUrGE in cAnAdA Oil sands, also known as tar sands, are made up
of very heavy oil mixed with clay and sand. The oil is so thick
that it must be separated from the sand and clay, and then treated,
to flow. To do this on a large, commercially viable scale has
required major engineering advances. The 1990s was the decade when
the technical groundwork was laid. Oil sands production in Canada
has grown from 400,000 per day (bd) in the mid-1990s to 1.7 million
barrels per day (mbd) todaymore than Libyan production before its
civil war. And IHS CERA projects that output could exceed 3 mbd by
2020. Such an increase would make Canada the worlds fifth-largest
oil producer, behind Russia, Saudi Arabia, the United States, and
China. The oil sands have become controversial. Environmental
groups in the United States have opposed the keystone pipeline,
which would carry oil from Alberta and North Dakota to the Gulf of
Mexico. One reason given for this opposition is the carbon dioxide
(CO2) emissions associated with oil sands production. But research
has found that a barrel of oil produced from the oil sands results
in only 5 to 15% more CO2 emissions than the average barrel of oil
used in the United States.
5 2012, iHS CERA inc. No portion of this report may be
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IHS CERA Special Report
Figure 1 Liquid Hydrocarbon Production in Canada, United States,
and Brazil, 20002020
Brazil
15US Tight Oil
Million Barrels 10 per Day
US Other
5Canada Oil Sands Canada Other
0 2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Source: IHS CERA. 20308-3
While the environmental debate goes on, oil sands have proved to
be a major contributor to energy security. Though many people
assume that most US oil imports come from the Middle East, in fact,
the largest sharenearly a quarter of the totalnow comes from
Canada. And the oil sands account for more than half of Canadas oil
exports to the United States, a share projected to rise steeply in
the coming years. TiGhT oil EmErGES The second source of increased
production is tight oilsometimes called shale oilin the United
States. Tight oil is petroleum trapped in shale or other
fine-grained rocks, such as sandstone or carbonates. The
technologies used to extract natural gas from shalehorizontal
drilling and hydraulic fracturingare now being applied to release
tight oil from dense rock. In North Dakota, a formation known as
the Bakken was producing a mere 10,000 bd of oil less than a decade
ago. Its production level is now over 500,000 bd. The Bakken has
turned North Dakota into the third-largest oil-producing state in
the country, as well as the state with the lowest unemployment
rate. Similar development of tight oil is taking place in other
areas, including in the Eagle Ford Formation in South Texas and in
West Texas. Total US production of tight oil was around 150,000 bd
in 2000. But it reached nearly 1 mbd last year, and by 2020, IHS
CERA projects that it could approach 3 mbdone third of overall US
oil production. And this estimate is conservative; some forecasts
project even higher levels of US tight oil production by the
6 2012, iHS CERA inc. No portion of this report may be
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prior written consent.
IHS CERA Special Report
end of the decade. Tight oil has been the key engine of higher
US production of all liquids fuels, which increased by 1.3 mbd
between 2008 and 2011. This made the United States the number one
source of global supply growth over that periodby far. The economic
impact of tight oil could be substantial. By 2020, the net US oil
import requirement could be around 5 mbd less than it was as
recently as 2005. At an illustrative oil price of $100 per barrel,
this represents an annual reduction in the oil import bill of $182
billionan amount equal to about one-third of the entire US trade
deficit last year. BrAzil SEES ThroUGh ThE SAlT Brazil comprises
the southern end of the new hemispheric oil axis. When Brazil began
to develop its sugar-based ethanol industry in the 1970s, it did so
on the assumption that the country had no oil. But it turned out
that the waters off the coast of Brazil had a very great deal of
oil. Offshore development has meant that just the increase in
Brazilian oil production since 2000 is more than one and a half
times the countrys entire ethanol output. But even more striking
production increases are on the horizon. In the middle of the last
decade, technological breakthroughs made it possible to identify
large new oil fields off the coast of southern Brazil that until
then had been hidden below a belt of salt a mile or more thick.
Developing these presalt resources, as theyve come the shift in the
locus of production means to be known, is an immense technical and
logistical challenge and will require more oil will flow north to
south and south huge investments. But if development to north
within the Western Hemisphere, goes at a reasonable pace, Brazil
could rather than from the Eastern Hemisphere in total be producing
4.5 mbd of oil by 2020, nearly twice Venezuelas present westward.
output and almost half the current production of Saudi Arabia.
Venezuela has traditionally been the powerhouse of Latin American
oil. But Brazil is now poised to assume that role and, in the
process, to become a major exporter to the global market. rEdrAwinG
ThE oil mAP Together, these three developments will significantly
alter the global oil map. The Western Hemisphere will still import
oil from the rest of the world, but not nearly to the same
degreeand certainly not in the amounts forecasted just a few years
ago. This will mean significant reductions in shipments from the
Middle East and West Africa. Oil that would have been shipped west
from those regions will instead move eastward in growing volumes to
the emerging economies of Asia. China, which today uses half as
much oil as the United States, could become the worlds largest oil
consumer around 2020. All of this points to a big geopolitical
shift, with Asian economies having a growing stake in the stability
of Middle East oil supplies. This raises a question: How will the
great powers share responsibility for the stability of the Persian
Gulf in the decade ahead?
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IHS CERA Special Report
For the United States, new sources of supply from the Western
Hemisphere will contribute to energy security. Since the oil market
is global, the United States, like all consuming countries, will
still be vulnerable to supply disruptions. And because of the sheer
size of the Persian Gulfs oil reserves, the Middle East will remain
strategically important. But new sources of supply closer to home
will make Americas supply system more resilient. The shift in the
locus of production means more oil will flow north to south and
south to north within the Western Hemisphere, rather than from the
Eastern Hemisphere westward. This shift strikingly demonstrates how
technological innovation is redrawing the map of world oil and
reshaping the energy future. Daniel Yergin is Chairman of IHS
Cambridge Energy Research Associates and the author of the new book
The Quest: Energy, Security, and the Remaking of the Modern World.
James Burkhard is Managing Director of IHS CERAs World Oil
Group.
8 2012, iHS CERA inc. No portion of this report may be
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prior written consent.
IHS CERA Special Report
EnErGy, JoBS And Economic GrowThby Roberto Bocca and Samantha
Gross Energy is the lifeblood of the global economy, a crucial
input to nearly all of the goods and services of the modern world.
Stable, reasonably priced energy supplies are central to
maintaining and improving the living standards of billions of
people. But as the world struggles to emerge from a global
recession and financial crisis, countries are looking to improve
economic performance and put people back to work. Policymakers,
especially in countries with energy-producing potential, now
increasingly see another role the energy sector can play: job
creator and engine of economic growth. In most countries, energys
direct contribution to the economy is relatively small, whereas in
resource-rich countries, energys share of GDP can be much higher.
Regardless of the industrys position in the overall economy, if
domestic energy production can be Policymakers, especially in
countries increased at a competitive price, such with
energy-producing potential, now growth can be a powerful economic
driver. increasingly see another role the energy Energy production
typically requires sector can play: job creator and engine of a
skilled and well-paid workforce and economic growth. massive
capital expenditures. As a result, the industry can have a
substantial multiplier effect on the larger economy. Employment and
investment in the energy industry flow through to other sectors,
creating additional jobs and spurring growth in seemingly unrelated
realms. BriGhT SPoT in ThE UniTEd STATES For these reasons, energy
production can make a significant contribution to recovery from the
global downturn. To take just one example, oil and gas production
in the United States has been a bright spot in an economy still
struggling to find its footing. The US upstream oil and gas sector
grew 4.5% in 2011, more than twice as fast as overall GDP, which
rose only 1.7%. The US energy industry also supports a substantial
number of jobs, owing in part to its long supply chain. Incremental
growth in energy production can be a boon for countries where
energy is a relatively small part of the overall economy, such as
the United States. Countries where energy production accounts for a
large share of GDP face the challenge of translating resource
wealth into broad prosperity. Nations that have done this
successfully have typically expanded from energy production into
related downstream activities such as refining and petrochemicals;
upstream activities such as oil and gas services; or complementary
sectors such as renewables and energy efficiency, information
technology, engineering and construction, and transportation and
logistics. Norway and Brazil have been especially successful at
building robust oil and gas services clusters; other resource-rich
nations often look to them as models. Good governance and economic
diversification are also critical in enabling nations to make the
most of their resource endowments.9 2012, iHS CERA inc. No portion
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in any form without prior written consent.
IHS CERA Special Report
innovATion in rEnEwABlES Technological advances have
revolutionized oil and gas extraction over the past decade, and
this transformation has been a key to the remarkable recent growth
in upstream oil and gas in the United States. Innovations in
renewable electricity generation have also contributed to job
creation and economic growth. Areas with fewer natural resources
have relied more on the renewables sector to spur economic
activity. In the wind industry, the scale of the turbines promotes
substantial local or regional supply chains, which create many
additional jobs. South korea, China, and India are fostering
entrepreneurship and technological innovation in renewables by
providing incentives for wind and solar production, encouraging
joint ventures and technology transfer, and funding research and
development. Many developed economies hope to expand their
renewables footprint as well, both to be at the forefront of this
growing sector and as a means of reaching their sustainability
goals. The energy industry itself can undoubtedly be a driver of
economic growth. But what policies can governments enact to
encourage growth? Energy policy typically tries to achieve
relatively stable prices, security of supply, and environmental
protection. Adding job creation to the list of goals for a countrys
energy policy can prove challenging. Seeking to maximize direct
employment in the energy industry may not be the best thing to do
if it promotes unproductive activity and leads to increases in
energy prices. Such a step could restrain other economic activity.
The net result could be that direct gains from the energy industry
are canceled out by losses from other sectors. A better approach is
to focus not just on the industrys direct economic contribution,
but instead on how energy contributes to the economy overall.
Although policymakers may look to energy as a driver of job
creation and growth, its primary role remains as a key input for
activity across the entire economy. The energy industry certainly
contributes to economic growth and job creation, and in some
countries to a very great extent. But in most settings, its basic
role as the economys lifeblood will remain most important. Roberto
Bocca is Senior Director and Head of Energy Industries at the World
Economic Forum. Samantha Gross, Director of Integrated Research at
IHS CERA, is an expert on the intersections among environment,
stakeholders, and energy companies. This article is drawn from the
new joint World Economic Forum and IHS CERA study Energy for
Economic Growth: Energy Vision Update 2012. The full report can be
found at www.weforum.org/ issues/energy.
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IHS CERA Special Report
ThE nEw FronTiEr: nEw oil From old FiEldSby Paul Markwell, Pete
Stark, Leta Smith, and Surya Rajan A perennial question in the oil
and gas industry is, Where is the next frontier from which future
supplies will come? Today, one answer is, so to speak, right under
our feet. Putting it another way, old oil fields are becoming the
big new thing in the energy business. Continuing technological
advances are making this possible. A striking example comes from
the Granite Wash, a sandstone formation stretching from North Texas
into western Oklahoma. The first discovery wells were drilled there
in 1956. By the late 1950s, the Granite Wash was producing nearly
100,000 barrels per day (bd) of oil and condensates, another form
of liquid hydrocarbons. Production at the Granite Wash declined
over time, falling below 50,000 bd by the late 1960s. Natural gas
production also began around then, and as oil output fell, the
Granite Wash became known primarily as a gas play. Production of
oil and condensates dropped all the way to 13,000 bd in 2003. It
looked like the Granite Wash was just about washed up as a source
of petroleum. rEvivinG GrAniTE wASh But then technologies used
successfully over the past decade to extract natural gas trapped in
shalehorizontal drilling and the fracturing of rock through the
injection of liquids and particles under high pressurerevived the
Granite Wash as an oil play. Over the past eight years, combined
oil and condensate production has nearly tripled, to more than
36,000 bd. And IHS CERA projects that by the early 2020s,
production could exceed 100,000, surpassing the previous peak. This
is not the first time such techniques have been used. As far back
as 1951, a Time magazine reporter described hydraulic fracturing
operations in West Texas: Because of the hard-packed nature of the
formation, ordinary drilling methods will not release the oil;
instead, a gelatinous compound followed by coarse sand, must be
pumped into the hole under tremendous pressure. This loosens the
fractures and the oil begins to flow freely. Though the techniques
used at the Granite Wash are not new, their much greater
sophistication and far more widespread application is novel.
EnhAncinG rEcovEry Horizontal drilling and fracturing are not the
only ways to expand production from mature fields. Other enhanced
oil recovery (EOR) techniques include injecting carbon dioxide
(CO2) or other gases; heating the rock by injecting steam or hot
water or even burning some of the hydrocarbons underground; and
injecting chemicals such as polymers, surfactants (similar to
soap), gels, or specially prepared salt water. Among the creative
new methods being researched is the use of microbes, in which
biological organisms ferment the oil and produce a by-product that
assists recovery. The use of CO2 is widespread in the Permian Basin
of West Texas, which in its heyday was the largest onshore oil
producing region ever in the lower-48 states. Such an approach
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there because abundant, naturally occurring supplies of CO2 are
nearby. Some speculate that to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, CO2
from coal- and gas-fired electric power plants could be used to
increase oil production in locations that lack naturally occurring
CO2. GloBAl imPAcT The revival of mature fields has been a quiet,
global revolution that has occurred without great fanfare. But it
is generating a major prize. In recent years, estimated additions
to reserves from existing fields have averaged 18 billion barrels
annually, owing to revised assumptions about how much oil can be
recovered. This amount was equal to nearly three-fifths of the oil
consumed during these years. By contrast, growth in reserves from
new discoveries has averaged only about 14 billion barrels annually
over the past 20 years. The giant Duri field in Indonesia, which
has been producing since 1941, shows how EOR can lead to an
increase in reserves from a mature field. In 1982, Duris estimated
reserves were 500 million barrels. EOR techniques were begun in the
early 1990s and resulted over time in a massive increase in
estimated reserves. In 2009, they stood at 2.8 billion barrels. the
revival of mature fields has been a quiet, global revolution that
has occurred without great fanfare. Advanced techniques certainly
have their challenges. Field operators and governments must
cooperate to facilitate the investments that can optimize
production from mature fields. Several key ingredients are needed:
recognition early in a fields life that upside potential exists; a
shift in the operational mindset to allow for application of
innovative technologies and operating practices; and host
governments willing to alter contract terms to take into account
the additional costs presented by mature fields. Discoveries of
large new oil fields now come along far less frequently than in the
past. Getting more oil out of old fields is a major new frontier
for the industry. Today, it represents one of the most critically
important ways to meet future demand. Paul Markwell, IHS CERA
Senior Director, is an expert in upstream oil and gas and oversees
IHS CERAs upstream research agenda. Pete Stark, Vice President of
Industry Relations at IHS, is an expert on unconventional oil and
gas and industry trends. Leta Smith, IHS CERA Director, focuses on
trends in exploration and production and their implications for the
future supply outlook. Surya Rajan, IHS CERA Director, is an expert
on upstream research and North American natural gas production and
supply.
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nUclEAr PowEr: TAkinG A lonG viEwby Lawrence Makovich and
Jone-Lin Wang Sometimes you dont know what youve got until its
gone. Today most people take the benefit of nuclear power in the
United States power generation portfolio for granted. But this
cornerstone of power generation diversity is something that may
slip away in the not too distant future if we fail to take a long
view about nuclear power development. The United States is
fortunate to have a well-diversified mix of fuels and technologies
for power generation (see Figure 2). But this is not an accident.
Maintaining a diverse mix of power generation fuels and
technologies requires making adjustments based on a long view. The
shale gas revolution has dramatically expanded reserves, lowered
prices, and changed expectations regarding the availability and
cost of natural gas. As a result, it makes sense to adjust the
generation mix toward a greater share for natural gasfired power
supply. But it would be shortsighted to expand natural gasfired
power supply alone and end up relying too much on a single fuel in
the years ahead. Current natural gas prices lead some to jump to
the conclusion that developing new nuclear power plants simply does
not make economic sense. However, current natural gas prices are at
a cyclical low owing in part to a warm winter. These current low
prices are well below the level most people expected just one year
ago and are also well below the price level that most analysts
expect will keep natural gas demand and supply in balance over the
long run. The implication is clear: the current downward price
swings indicate that the shale gas revolution has not made
predicting natural gas prices any easier, nor has it ended their
multiyear cycles and volatility.
Figure 2 US Net Electric Power Generation by Energy Source,
2010Hydro and Renewables 10%
Other 2%
Nuclear 19% Coal 45% Natural Gas 24%
Source: IHS CERA. 20308-2
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ThE vAlUE oF divErSiTy Uncertainty regarding future fuel prices
is why it is so important to take a long view and remember the
value of fuel diversity. How long a view? Power technology and fuel
choices are something we have to live with for 40 to 60 years into
the future. Looking back over a few decades provides some valuable
perspective. Natural gas prices rode a roller coaster across the
past two decadesranging from as low as $1.40 to as high as $13.36
per million Btu at the Henry Hub in Louisiana, which is where the
benchmark price is established. It is not hard to imagine what
monthly consumer power bills would have looked like if the United
States did not have fuel diversity and instead had relied solely on
natural gas for power generation. In just the last six years, the
average monthly cost of fuel for power generation would have
doubled. Since fuel makes up roughly one-third of a monthly power
bill, the ups and downs in natural gas prices would have made the
variation in monthly power bills three times greater. The vast
majority of electricity consumers reveal a strong preference for
power bills that are more stable and predictable than the cost of
natural gasfired power supply. And the most cost-effective and
proven way to dampen power price volatility is a diversified
generation mix. But here is the rub: the United States is
approaching a critical juncture regarding a key element of the
diversified generating portfolionuclear power. PErFormAncE Between
30 and 50 years ago, the United States built the worlds largest
fleet of nuclear power plants and increased the generation share of
nuclear power to around 20%. But the accident at Three Mile Island
in 1979 abruptly decelerated the growth of US nuclear generating
capacity. Although additions of nuclear capacity have not been
keeping pace with increases in power use, the share of nuclear
generation has been relatively steady because the performance of
nuclear power plants has steadily increasedso much so the decisions
made in the next decade will that today US nuclear performance
determine whether or not nuclear power represents the benchmark for
world-class operations. remains a key element of the US power
generation mix. The gradual improvements in US nuclear performance
did not generate many headlines and these gains in carbon-free
power generation are something most people simply took for granted.
However, the current nuclear power plant fleet is aging and is
scheduled to cease operations between 2025 and 2050. That may still
seem a long way off, but the lead time to build a new nuclear power
plant is about a decade. Taking a long view indicates that the
nuclear power decisions made in the next decade will determine
whether or not nuclear power remains a key element of the US power
generation mix. Thats why the nuclear power plants starting
construction in the United States this year are so important.
Although these plants alone cannot maintain a viable generation
share for nuclear power in the long run, they are going to be the
proof statement for the next generation of nuclear power
development. And that is important because the next generation
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needs to add about one nuclear power plant per year in the
post-2020 time frame simply to maintain a viable nuclear generation
share. If this does not happen, then a meaningful nuclear power
generation share may be something we all come to regret when its
gone. Lawrence Makovich is a Vice President and Senior Advisor at
IHS CERA. He is author of the IHS CERA report Recalibrating Power
Supply Cost Assessments: Accounting for Integration. Jone-Lin Wang
is an IHS CERA Managing Director and head of the Global Power
Group. She is author of The Unfolding Crisis in Japan and What It
Means to Energy.
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GETTinG To ScAlE: rEnEwABlE EnErGy in An ErA oF AUSTEriTyby Alex
Klein and Atul Arya Starting in the mid-1990s, renewable energy
experienced a remarkable boom. This growth accelerated in 2004 in
the face of burgeoning energy demand, volatile and high oil prices,
and seeming progress toward a global agreement to slow the growth
of carbon emissions. These factors drove sizeable investment in
wind, solar, and biofuels technology, as well as rapid development
of renewable power projects. The boom started from a tiny base:
wind and solar energy combined accounted for less than 0.5% of
global power generation in 2000. But many observers felt this boom
might be a launching pad that would spur renewables to become a
substantial part of the worlds energy picture over the next decade.
The financial crisis of 2008 and its aftermath brought the
renewables sector down to earth. Share prices of renewables
companies are now well off their peaks, some early leaders have
gone under, and government fiscal constraints jeopardize the
subsidies and tax breaks that were crucial in fueling the earlier
boom. What are the prospects for renewables in the new era of
austerity and fiscal discipline? AchiEvEmEnTS oF ThE Boom yEArS The
starting point is to review what occurred during the boom years.
Global investment in renewable electricity capacity grew from a
mere $5 billion in 2000 to nearly $100 billion in 2008. The worlds
major energy equipment manufacturers jumped into Renewables will
remain an important renewables, standardizing technology and part
of the world energy agenda. But bringing operational scale.
Research and even if renewable energy technologies development
(R&D) spending and growth were to double their share of new
power in the manufacturing base drove costs generation investment
over the next two down significantly. In some locations, wind has
become competitive with electricity decades, they would still
barely account from fossil fuelfired or nuclear power for 15% of
power supply on a global basis plants. The cost of solar
photovoltaic (PV) panels has plummeted by 75% over the by 2030.
past decade. In most parts of the world, however, the cost of power
from PV remains significantly higher than power from the grid.
Large-scale solar thermal power has become a new frontier, as has
offshore wind, especially in Europe. A new breed of global
renewables developers emerged during the boom years, initially
coming from the ranks of Europes utilities. Wind power was the
major driver, and these companies were able to extend their
renewables footprint into new markets. Renewables also increasingly
became an important consideration in the strategies of the worlds
major utilities and energy companies.
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SincE ThE criSiS In the years since the financial crisis, growth
of the renewables industry has continued. Tax incentives and
stimulus funding in the United States, taxpayer and electricity
ratepayer subsidies in Europe, and the Chinese governments support
for manufacturing and R&D investment have all provided support
for renewables, even in the face of a sluggish global economy. In
each of the past three years, the global renewables industry set
new records for installed capacity and investment. Notably,
renewables now capture over a third of all global investment for
power generation. Yet, despite all this, wind and solar energy
combined still account for only 2% of global power generation. One
of the major challenges is that electric power infrastructure turns
over very slowly. The equipment has an average life span of 40
years, so over the course of a decade, only 25% of installed
capacity becomes obsolete and needs replacement. For renewables to
get to scale more quickly, their cost needs not only to be lower
than other options for adding new capacity and replacing obsolete
equipment, but also to become low enough to justify supplanting
existing power generation equipment that is operating perfectly
well. With Europes economies in turmoil, continued support there
for aggressive renewables subsidies is in doubt. And with the US
stimulus money now spent, and concern over deficits widespread in
Washington, there is little prospect of major new funding for
renewables in America. Nor is there much likelihood for a global
agreement to control greenhouse gas emission. The renewables
industry currently has far too much manufacturing capacity, so a
swift and painful consolidation has actually already started. The
market is also likely to become more diversified globally. The
United States, Europe, and China accounted for 75% of world
renewables purchases in 2011. Yet more than 60 countries have
adopted policies designed to increase the share of wind and solar
in their energy mix. Latin Americas renewables market is surging,
and the Fukushima nuclear accident has led to increased demand for
solar, wind, and biomass in Asia. Markets in emerging economies
will be able to offset some of the demand lost from the United
States and Europe. lonG-TErm ProSPEcTS In spite of a slowdown,
renewables will remain an important part of the world energy
agenda. But even if renewable energy technologies were to double
their share of new power generation investment over the next two
decades, they would still barely account for 15% of power supply on
a global basis by 2030. Over the long term, the world is going to
need all optionsfossil fuels, renewables, and efficiency gainsto
meet its future demand for energy. There will be multiple pathways
forward and unexpected turns and surprises. Renewables will over
time become a larger part of the worlds energy mix. But the change
wont happen overnight. Alex Klein is Research Director for Clean
and Renewable Power Generation at IHS Emerging Energy Research.
Atul Arya is Senior Vice President, Research & Analysis, at
IHS.
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ThE riSE oF UnconvEnTionAl nATUrAl GAS in chinA: wild cArd For
world mArkETS?by Xizhou Zhou and Shankari Srinivasan Chinas
consumption of natural gas has doubled over the past five years,
and IHS CERA projects that demand will quintuple over the next two
decades. This trend seems to bode well for international gas
producers. As a result, many gas-producing countries look to the
Middle kingdom as a promised land. But a wild card could disrupt
their vision of robust Chinese gas imports: Chinas own
unconventional gas, a resource that over the long term could put
the squeeze on imports. Natural gas has historically been a niche
fuel in China. Even after recent rapid growth, it accounts for less
than 4% of primary energy supply, compared with 25% in the United
States. Last year, China consumed 130 billion cubic meters (Bcm) of
gas, roughly one fifth of US consumption, despite Chinas having a
population four times larger. An expanding urban grid and rising
incomes mean that Chinas consumers can now access and afford
natural gas, and industrial users are happy to switch to gas from
more expensive oil. Gas-fired power generation allows utilities to
meet both rising electricity demand and more stringent
environmental regulations. Yet a dearth of supply previously kept
gas as a marginal part of Chinas energy mix. The supply picture is
now changing. Chinas domestic gas production has tripled over the
past decade. And imports have increased from a negligible factor to
one-quarter of consumption in 2011 (see Figure 3). Imports
Figure 3 Imports Increasing in Chinas Natural Gas Supply160 140
120 100 Billion Cubic Meters 80 60 40 20 0 1996Source: IHS CERA.
20308-1 LNG Imports Pipeline Imports Domestic Production
2000
2005
2010
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come to China in two ways: on tankers in the form of liquefied
natural gas (LNG) and by pipeline. LNG currently arrives in China
through long-term contracts with Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia,
and Qatar; short-term cargoes have also come in from Oman, Nigeria,
and, very recently, Alaska. The completion of the Central Asia
Pipeline in 2009 gave China access to gas from its western
neighbors. Last year, shipments from Turkmenistan reached 13 Bcm,
roughly 40% of total gas imports. Long-term pipeline contracts are
also planned with Uzbekistan and kazakhstan, and other pipelines
are in the works: a China-Myanmar link is currently under
construction, and negotiations with Russia are ongoing, with four
potential projects on the drawing board. Yet a surprise may be in
the making. Domestic supplies of unconventional gasshale gas and
coalbed methanecould become a big factor, and soon. A new study by
IHS CERA has come to a striking conclusion: the geological
potential for unconventional gas in China is greaterpotentially
much greaterthan in North America, where shale gas has turned the
United States from a gas importer to a prospective exporter in less
than a decade.* Because of the time required to develop this new
resource and projected demand growth, over the next decade
unconventional gas will chiefly fill Chinas supply gap rather than
replace other sources. As a result, China is still expected to
depend heavily on With unconventional gas looming on conventional
gas, LNG, and pipeline the horizon, China may not have the imports
up to 2020. insatiable appetite for imports many have After 2020,
however, unconventional anticipated. gas could begin to compete
with other supply sources and even with oil and coal. Large volumes
of cheap unconventional gas may not only provide the market with
abundant supply but also spur further gas demand. Unconventional
gas in China could then do what it has done in North America in
recent yearsdrive an energy revolution. With unconventional gas
looming on the horizon, China may not have the insatiable appetite
for imports many have anticipated. Instead, the country could
become gas self-sufficient in two decades. Existing LNG contracts
would come under pressure, and new contracts could face stiff
competition. Pipeline negotiations may be delayed or even stopped
altogether, with potentially large geostrategic implications. Other
fuels could face rising pressure from gas across all sectors: power
generation, industry, and even transportation. This is a year for
assessment. Chinas Ministry of Mineral and Land Resources is
working with key stakeholders to evaluate the potential of
unconventional gas. The Ministry aims to complete this assessment
and select priority areas for exploration in 2013. The decisions
from this effort could trigger fundamental changes in the global
gas balance and in Chinas energy mix.
*The Unconventional Frontier: Prospects for Global
Unconventional Gas is a Multiclient Study that combines IHS
proprietary data with IHS CERAs market experience and knowledge of
above- and belowground drivers. The study develops detailed
analysis of unconventional natural gas supply in seven key regions:
China, India, Indonesia, Australia, Europe, Eastern Europe, and
South America. For more information, contact
[email protected].
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Xizhou Zhou is Director of China Energy at IHS CERA. Shankari
Srinivasan is Managing Director for Gas, Power, and Renewables for
Europe, Middle East, and Asia at IHS CERA.
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BrAzil: ThE riSinG oil PowErby Enrique Sira The largest oil
discovery in recent decades has been the undersea deposits off the
coast of Brazil. These create the potential for Brazil to move into
the ranks of leading oil powers, with major implications for the
global market. The Brazilian government is fully aware of the tax
revenue, job creation, and influence that oil production on this
scale could provide. But it also sees this new discovery as an
opportunity to turn the countrys oil services industry into a
global leader in offshore technology. To achieve that objective,
the government has raised the bar by imposing more stringent local
content requirements on new offshore production. But becoming a
top-tier oil supplier and global leader in oil services at the same
time will not be easy. The genesis of the recent Brazilian offshore
discoveries can be traced back almost four decades, to the oil
price spikes of the 1970s. These left Brazil vulnerable, and the
government resolved to make the country fully energy
self-sufficient. One result was the discovery of offshore oil
deposits in the Campos Basin, which had sizeable potential. The
other was development of Brazils ethanol industry, which grew over
time to become one of the worlds two largest. BElow ThE SAlT
Production from the Campos Basin and elsewhere has allowed
Brazilian oil output to grow more than tenfold over three decades,
from less than 0.2 million barrels per day (mbd) in 1980 to 2.3 mbd
in 2011. Along the way, Brazil became self-sufficient in oil. The
skills developed in exploiting the Campos fields gave Brazil
world-class offshore capabilities and proved to be a key factor
behind the latest discoveries. Petrobras, the Brazilian national
oil company, has recently made several important technical advances
in offshore exploration and development, including new methods for
analyzing seismic data that make it possible to see oil deposits
under mile-thick salt domes. These have led to approximately 90 new
offshore discoveries, which contain an estimated 40 billion barrels
of oil. This resource can be exploited with only half the wells
needed for a similar field in West Africa and 5 to 10 times fewer
wells than are needed for a comparable field in the Gulf of Mexico.
This means that Brazils production costs for its new offshore oil
will be much lower than for other sources of offshore oil. After
these new fields come online, Brazil could increase its output to
4.5 mbd or more by 2020, pushing it into the top tier of
oil-producing countries, behind only such titans as Russia, Saudi
Arabia, and the United States, and at almost the same level as
Canada. This would place Brazil well ahead of its continental
rival, Venezuela, and make it by far the largest oil producer in
Latin America. ThE chAllEnGE AhEAd But exploiting this new resource
will involve a herculean effort, one in which Petrobras will have
to operate at, and push beyond, the current technological frontier.
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200 miles offshore, under a mile of salt that is itself under
more than a mile of ocean water. The oil also contains large
amounts of natural gas; handling this mix will require complex and
expensive transportation infrastructure that has to be built.
Getting the hydrocarbons out from under the ocean will require
major technological innovation and many first-of-akind solutions.
The scale of what is ahead is enormous; and the investment required
will be massive, amounting to several hundred billion dollars.
Equipment constraints could pose another challenge. To cite just
one example, when the Brazilian project reaches scale, it will
require half of the worlds stock of deepwater drilling equipment.
By imposing strict local content regulations, Brazil hopes to
increase the scale and Brazil may face tough choices. its goal of
technical sophistication of its oil services sector. The idea is
that this industry could maximizing tax revenues and influence in
eventually generate sizeable exports. But it global markets may be
at odds, at least will be very challenging for the domestic in the
short term, with its aspirations of industry to develop the
capabilities needed becoming a leader in offshore oil services. to
meet the new content requirements, given the scale of the
undertaking. Brazil may face tough choices. Its goal of maximizing
tax revenues and influence in global markets may be at odds, at
least in the short term, with its aspirations of becoming a leader
in offshore oil services. Managing potentially conflicting goals
will require dexterity on the part of Petrobras and other key
stakeholders in the new Brazilian discoveries. Whatever the
eventual balance in the years ahead, the Brazilian offshore has
become a new hot spot in global oil. Enrique Sira leads IHS CERAs
Latin America Energy Advisory Services.
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JoBS And incomE: ThE imPAcT oF ShAlE GAS on ThE US Economyby
Mary Lashley Barcella and John W. Larson The US shale gas
revolution is the most significant energy development of the past
quarter century. A decade ago, shale gas represented a tiny share
of domestic gas production; today, it accounts for more than one
third. As it has grown so rapidly, it has also become the subject
of a highly visible environmental debate. But shale gas is also a
major, yet surprisingly little recognized, economic story. The
shale gale, as it is sometimes called, is providing a big boost to
the US economy at a time of sluggish job and income growth. The
rapid growth of shale gas has already created 600,000 jobs. By 2015
that number could grow to 870,000 jobs and add nearly $1,000 per
year in extra spending power to the budget of the average American
household. In addition, it will generate nearly $30 billion
annually in tax revenues. These are some of the key conclusions
from the new study, The Economic and Employment Contributions of
Shale Gas in the United States, prepared by IHS Global Insight.
These shale gas jobs come in three categories. The first category
is direct jobs: people employed by the industry itself. In the case
of shale gas, this includes workers involved with exploration and
drilling as well as activities that support drilling, such as
cementing wells. The second category is indirect jobs: people
employed by companies the rapid growth of shale gas has already
active in the shale gas supply chain. created 600,000 jobs. By 2015
that Examples include surveyors, cement number could grow to
870,000 jobs and truck drivers, iron and steel workers, heavy
equipment operators, rig spare add nearly $1,000 per year to the
budgets parts installers, and IT specialists. The of the average
American household in third category is induced jobs: people terms
of extra spending power. employed as a result of spending by
holders of direct and indirect jobs. Examples include waitresses at
restaurants near drilling sites, carpenters and electricians who
build apartments for gas field workers, real estate brokers,
attorneys who draw up mortgages, and auto dealers. The current
600,000 jobsand projected 870,000 by 2015are sizable contributions
in a country with sluggish economic growth and which, in total,
employs 140 million. Each direct job created in the shale gas
industry leads to the creation of more than three indirect and
induced jobs, a rate higher than for many other sectors. The United
States is the global leader in all aspects of shale gas, which
means that most suppliers are domestically based. As a result, a
higher proportion of industry spending supports jobs at home. This
is in sharp contrast to an industry such as electronics, where much
of the supply chain is based overseas.
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In addition to creating jobs, the shale gas industry has also
contributed to the US economy by lowering the cost of natural gas.
A decade ago, it was generally expected that the country would soon
have to rely on imported, and expensive, liquefied natural gas. The
shale gale has turned that expectation on its head and provided an
abundant source of domestic gas. This has led to lower prices for
the gas used in home heating and cooking, as well as lower
electricity prices. We estimate that the average American household
will have an additional $926 in disposable income every year
between 2012 and 2015 as a result of lower natural gas prices.
Moreover, these gains are projected to increase to more than $2,000
per year over the long term. This provides truly welcome relief to
family budgets in lean economic times. Finally, shale gas helps
government budgets. Over the next 25 years, we estimate that the
industry will generate nearly $1 trillion in tax revenues for
local, state, and federal entities. And our assessment may actually
underestimate the industrys economic impact. To ensure that the
study was rigorous, we used conservative assumptions. The study
included only shale gas fields already under development in 2010
and excluded states such as New York, where there has been
regulatory uncertainty. It also excluded economic activity by US
companies that may support the Canadian shale gas industry.
Finally, our numbers do not include jobs created in industries that
rely on natural gas as a raw material, such as petrochemical or
fertilizer production, which may move plants to the United States
in response to low gas prices. Because of the shale gale, billions
of dollars of investment are now planned for new chemical
facilities in the United States. These investments would never have
been considered half a decade ago, and they will generate many
additional new jobs. In a strained economic and political
environment, the jobs created by the shale gas industry have been a
major boon. And with both households and governments facing tight
budget constraints, shale gas provides sorely needed income and tax
revenues. So far, the shale gas revolution has been a big story in
the energy industry. Its broad economic benefits, as it sweeps
throughout the US economy, are just beginning to be appreciated
across the country. Mary Lashley Barcella is Director, North
American Gas Analysis, at IHS CERA. She coauthored the IHS CERA
study Fueling North Americas Energy Future: The Unconventional
Natural Gas Revolution. John W. Larson is Vice President and global
industry leader for Public Sector Consulting at IHS. He is a
coauthor of IHS Global Insights study of the economic impact of
shale gas. The study is available at
http://www.ihs.com/info/ecc/a/shale-gas-jobsreport.aspx
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