Central Vermont Public Service SOUTHERN LOOP COOLIDGE CONNECTOR Coolidge Connector Community Working Group April 30, 2007.

Central Vermont Public Service

SOUTHERN LOOP COOLIDGE CONNECTOR

Coolidge Connector Community Working Group

April 30, 2007

Central Vermont Public Service

Re-Cap of February 26th Meeting

• Described resource options that can serve as NTAs

• Presented five alternative resource configurations (ARCs) for discussion

• Summarized results of comparing ARCs using VT societal cost test– Some ARCs had lower societal costs than the

preferred transmission solution

• Further analyses to be performed

Southern Loop Coolidge Connector - Preliminary NTA Study Update

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Central Vermont Public Service

Developments Since April 26th• State-wide load level at which a solution is

needed was lowered to 1,190 mw from 1,200 mw

• DPS memo lowered loss factors, lowered contribution from EE

• Revised societal cost analysis underway• Risk evaluation and feasibility assessment of

transmission solution and ARCs• Further analysis indicated that ARC 1 is not a

viable option

Southern Loop Coolidge Connector - Preliminary NTA Study Update

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Central Vermont Public Service

Current Approach• Preferred ARC is a combination of EE, DR, and

local new generation• Increased sense of urgency for action• Parallel paths for implementation of solutions

– DUs to explore increased EE, DR, new generation– VELCO to pursue permitting for transmission solution– Monitor load growth and implementation of NTAs

• If load growth meets or exceeds forecast, have transmission solution available

Southern Loop Coolidge Connector - Preliminary NTA Study Update

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Central Vermont Public Service

Various Demand Forecasts with 1190 MW

Adjusted Actual VT Demand

Adjusted ISO Forecasted

Demand

Adjusted ISO Forecasted Demand

(High Eco)

Adjusted DPS Summer Peak w/New DSM

Adjusted VT Actual (90/10 Adjusted)

Base Growth

Adjusted 2006 Vermont Actual (90/10 Adjusted) High Eco Growth

2001 1019 9902002 1034 10152003 1013 10402004 972 10652005 1091 10902006 1137 1115 1123 1094 1122 11222007 1140 1156 1108 1147 11562008 1165 1200 1119 1173 11972009 1190 1233 1136 1198 12322010 1210 1269 1141 1218 12642011 1230 1300 1154 1239 12962012 1250 1331 1164 1259 13282013 1270 1358 1172 1279 13562014 1285 1383 1176 1295 13832015 1300 1411 1173 1310 1406

Clarifications• Adjusted: Load forecasts include an additional ten MWs associated with increased losses due to Highgate OOS Planning assumption.

• Actual VT Demand: Includes a loss adder to reflect Reliability Assessment generation dispatch assumptions that differ from actual dispatch during the Peak and for 2002 an adjustment of ten MWs of load that was offline at the peak hour.

• Adjusted ISO Forecasted Demand: Loads prior to 2006 are a regression of the ISO forecast

• High Eco: LaCapra’s optimistic economic expectations load forecast

Southern Loop Coolidge Connector - Need Analysis

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Central Vermont Public Service

Load Monitoring Example

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

14001 3 5 7 9

11

13

15

Year

Lo

ad

(M

W) Forecast

1200 MW

1190 MW

Load'

Load"

Decision Point

Southern Loop Coolidge Connector – Load Based Decision Model

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Central Vermont Public Service

DUs Plan for NTA• ARC 3/4 takes advantage of other plans

– Energy Efficiency budget increase thru 2008– Geo-targeting per Act 61– Peaking Generation and Ld Mgt per Forward

Capacity Market– Renewable Generation and CHP per Act 61– Generation Feasibility Study by DUs

Southern Loop Coolidge Connector – NTA Planning & Implementation

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Central Vermont Public Service

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

MW

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

NTA Example

Gen

LdMgt

EEff

Southern Loop Coolidge Connector – NTA Planning & Implementation

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Central Vermont Public Service

Proposed Next Steps• Submit a §248 filing with the VT PSB for the transmission solution (late July-

August)– Current Need Year = 2009– Construction will take 18 months following receipt of all regulatory approvals and

permits– Receipt of regulatory approvals and permitting could take up to ~25 months– Project maintains Vermont transmission in compliance with national reliability

standards • Which are now mandatory and can be enforced with substantial fines on 6/4/07

• Monitor actual load levels vs. 1190 MW need level– If load levels are tracking consistent with forecast, proceed with the transmission

project• Load levels that may impact the timing of the project lie within Vermont and outside of

Vermont (New York and New Hampshire) due to the networked nature of the transmission grid

– If load levels are tracking lower than forecast, considering “pausing” construction of the transmission project

– If load levels are tracking lower than forecast, CVPS and VELCO will submit localized transmission designed to address local reliability issues in the Brattleboro-West Dummerston area

Southern Loop Coolidge Connector – Transmission Planning & Implementation

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Central Vermont Public Service

Proposed Transmission ProjectProposed Project Elements • A new 51 mile 345 kV transmission line constructed in VELCO’s existing ROW adjacent to an existing 345 kV line built in ~1970• New substations in Vernon and West Dummerston• A substation modification at Coolidge substationDeferred Project Elements• 115 kV lines or substations from West Dummerston-Stratton, Stratton-Bennington as DSM/DG will be implemented to defer the need

Southern Loop Coolidge Connector – Transmission Planning & Implementation

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