Central Pacific Hurricane Center Seasonal Forecast for 2010 Central Pacific Hurricane Season and Recap of 2009 Season Jim Weyman Director, Central Pacific Hurricane Center Phone: Office: 793-5272 Office: 271-6238 May 19, 2010
Feb 10, 2016
Central Pacific Hurricane Center
Seasonal Forecast for 2010 Central Pacific Hurricane Season and Recap of 2009
Season
Jim WeymanDirector, Central Pacific Hurricane CenterPhone: Office: 793-5272 Office: 271-6238
May 19, 2010
Central Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season
• Season: June 1 to November 30• Central Pacific Average per Year
– 1.5 Hurricanes– 1.3 Tropical Storms– 1.6 Tropical Depressions– 4.4 Tropical Cyclones
• 1971 to 2009: 170 Tropical cyclones– 37% Hurricanes– 29% Tropical Storms– 34% Tropical Depressions
Hurricane Climatology for Central Pacific (1971 through 2009)
Type H TS TD TotalTotals 63 49 58 170Avg/YR 1.5 1.3 1.6 4.4Percent 37 29 34
Total by Month of Year (1971 – 2009)J F M A M J J A S O N D Total2 0 1 1 0 1 42 66 36 17 3 1 1701 0 <1 <1 0 <1 25 39 21 10 2 <1
Hurricane: Cat 1 -21 Cat 2 – 9 Cat 3 – 12 Cat 4 -8 Cat 5 - 4
Central Pacific 2009 Hurricane Season
• Seven tropical cyclones occurred – Greater than the long-term average of 4 to 5– Three hurricanes, one of them major– Three tropical storms– One tropical depression– Three formed in basin, four moved in from east– Six of the cyclones occurred in very late July and in
August, with the other in October• No fatalities or significant damages
2009 Hurricane Season Summary
Tropical Storm LanaHurricane FeliciaTropical Storm MakaHurricane GuillermoTropical Storm HildaTropical Depression Two-CHurricane Neki
July 31 – August 4August 8 – August 11August 10 – August 12August 16 – August 19August 23 – August 28August 29 – August 30October 18 – October 26
2009 Central Pacific Tropical Cyclones
Tropical Storm MakaTropical Storm Maka10-12 August10-12 August
Tropical Depression Two-CTropical Depression Two-C28-29 August28-29 August
Major Hurricane NekiMajor Hurricane Neki18-26 October18-26 October
Tropical Storm LanaTropical Storm Lana30 July – 3 August30 July – 3 August
Central PacificCentral PacificWest PacificWest Pacific East PacificEast Pacific
Hurricane GuillermoHurricane Guillermo16-19 August16-19 August
Tropical Storm HildaTropical Storm Hilda23-27 August23-27 August Hurricane FeliciaHurricane Felicia
8-11 August8-11 August
Felicia Highlights• Extensive public and media attention• Air Force C-130s and NOAA G-IV tasked• Tropical storm watches issued for portions of Hawaii,
but no tropical storm warnings• Wind speed/intensity probabilities used• Remnants produced heavy rains and some flooding in
Hawaii– 3 to 6 inches widespread across several islands– Maximum rainfall near 14 inches on Kauai and Oahu– Flash floods on Oahu
Hurricane Neki Highlights
• Peak intensity 105 knots (category 3)• Only major hurricane in in 2009• Hurricane watch for Johnston Island• Hurricane watches and warnings for portions of
Northwestern Hawaiian Islands– Evacuations via NOAA ship and Coast Guard C-130– Impacted the area as a strong tropical storm
• No impacts in main Hawaiian Islands
El Nino Update
• A Rapid Transition from El Nino to Neutral During April and May 2010
• Some Models Forecast Weak La Niña Conditions by Summer (Pacific Oceans waters near the equator colder than normal)
• Some Models forecast Continued Neutral Conditions (Water temperature near normal)
2010 Central Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook
Based on two climate factors• Ongoing low-activity era in Central Pacific
– Partly reflects fewer Eastern Pacific hurricanes moving into the region.
• Expectation of either ENSO-neutral or La Niña conditions in equatorial Pacific– Neither of which favors tropical cyclone activity in Central
Pacific. • Factors have historically produced below normal
seasons