Automata Network Simulator Applied to the Epidemiology of Urban Dengue Fever Paper’s Authors: Henrique F. Gagliardi, Fabrcio A.B. da Silva and Domingos Alves Presented by: Hector Cuesta Arvizu Center for Computational Epidemiology and Response Analysis University of North Texas September 19, 2011 Hector Cuesta (CeCERA) Automata Network Simulator Urban Dengue Fever September 19, 2011 1 / 17
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Automata Network Simulator Applied to theEpidemiology of Urban Dengue Fever
Paper’s Authors:Henrique F. Gagliardi, Fabrcio A.B. da Silva and Domingos Alves
Presented by: Hector Cuesta Arvizu
Center for Computational Epidemiology and Response AnalysisUniversity of North Texas
September 19, 2011Hector Cuesta (CeCERA) Automata Network Simulator Urban Dengue Fever September 19, 2011 1 / 17
Dengue fever is an illness caused by infection with a virus transmittedby the ”Aedes Aegipty” mosquito.
Facts:
ARthropod-BOrne viruses (Arbovirues).Typically, people infected with dengue virus are asymptomatic (80%) oronly have mild symptoms such as an uncomplicated feverDengue fever virus (DENV) is an RNA virus of the family Flaviviridae.The incubation period (time between exposure and onset of symptoms)ranges from 3 to 14 days.
A human may only become infected by Aedes Aegypti bite and amosquito only becomes infected by biting an infected human.
Facts:
Only the female mosquito feeds on blood, this is because they need theprotein found in the blood to produce eggs.On average mosquito can lay about 300 eggs during its life span of 14to 21 days.Dengue can also be transmitted via infected blood products andthrough organ donation.
The reason for this approach is that cellular automata have asignificant role in epidemic modeling because each individual, or cell,or small region of space ”updates” itself independently (in parallel)allowing for the concurrent development of several epidemic spatialclusters, defining its new state based on the current state of itssurrounding cells (locality) and on some shared laws of change [2,5].
Discrete model studied in computability theory and mathematics for anon-linear problems.
Facts:
It consist of an infinite, regular grid of cells, each in one of a finitenumber of states.The grid can be any finite number of dimensions.Each cell is a particular individual.
Iterative rules between these two cellular automata
The local and global influences are show in this figure. The pointedsquares represent the mosquitoes affected by the local and globalhuman infective influence. The same kind of influence occurring inthis bottom-up interactions also occurs for the vector-humans in atop-down sense at each simulation update.
The probability ps of any susceptible individual become infective
1.- Any susceptible individual may become infected with probability ps
2.- An infected individual becomes infective after an average latencytime (TE)
3.- Infective individual are removed deterministically from thesystem(becoming immune) after an infectious period (t > 0), which isconsidered as a constant for all infected human individuals andinfinity to the mosquito population.
4.- Once in the removed class, the individual participate only passivelyin the spreading of the infection by a period of immunity larger thanthe complete epidemic process.
In (a) we see a simulation with the orthogonal view and in(b) the perspective view, where the bottom grid represents the humanpopulation while the top grid represents the vector population.