CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM ETCCDI Workshop CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM ETCCDI Workshop De Bilt 13-15 May 2008 De Bilt 13-15 May 2008 Climate Indices from Marine Data Climate Indices from Marine Data Val Swail - Environment Canada, Toronto Scott Woodruff - NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulde Elizabeth Kent - National Oceanography Centre, Southampton David Parker - Met Office, Exeter
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CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM ETCCDI Workshop De Bilt 13-15 May 2008
Climate Indices from Marine Data. CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM ETCCDI Workshop De Bilt 13-15 May 2008. Val Swail - Environment Canada, Toronto Scott Woodruff - NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder Elizabeth Kent - National Oceanography Centre, Southampton David Parker - Met Office, Exeter. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM ETCCDI WorkshopCCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM ETCCDI WorkshopDe Bilt 13-15 May 2008De Bilt 13-15 May 2008
Climate Indices from Marine DataClimate Indices from Marine Data
Val Swail - Environment Canada, TorontoScott Woodruff - NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder
Elizabeth Kent - National Oceanography Centre, SouthamptonDavid Parker - Met Office, Exeter
CLIMAR-III:CLIMAR-III:Third JCOMM Workshop on Advances in Third JCOMM Workshop on Advances in
Marine ClimatologyMarine Climatology6-9 May 2008, Gdynia, Poland6-9 May 2008, Gdynia, Poland
FOCI ANTICIPATED FOR MARINE FOCI ANTICIPATED FOR MARINE INDICESINDICES
• detection and attribution of climate changedetection and attribution of climate change• impact on marine industries (fishing, shipping, oil impact on marine industries (fishing, shipping, oil
and gas production, tourism)and gas production, tourism)• sea-level changesea-level change• marine hazards (extreme winds and waves, marine hazards (extreme winds and waves,
harmful algal blooms, pollution)harmful algal blooms, pollution)• changes in hydrological cyclechanges in hydrological cycle• changes in ocean circulationchanges in ocean circulation• changes in sea ice and ice bergschanges in sea ice and ice bergs• effects on coastal communitieseffects on coastal communities• ocean acidificationocean acidification
QUESTIONS Posed to CLIMAR-QUESTIONS Posed to CLIMAR-IIIIII
What observational data are needed (available) for climate change What observational data are needed (available) for climate change detection and attribution? detection and attribution?
What analyses of these data can provide information useful for climate What analyses of these data can provide information useful for climate change detection and attribution? change detection and attribution?
What international coordination on data issues would improve climate What international coordination on data issues would improve climate change detection and attribution?change detection and attribution?
What are the indices with most impact?What are the indices with most impact?
What indices should we include on version 1 of our list for marine indices?What indices should we include on version 1 of our list for marine indices?
How can we use what we have learned about data set uncertainties for How can we use what we have learned about data set uncertainties for indices?indices?
How do we make indices available to users? Common web site such as How do we make indices available to users? Common web site such as ETCCDI or links to that site?ETCCDI or links to that site?
How do we develop indices for inclusion in IPCC AR5 in 2013 with increased How do we develop indices for inclusion in IPCC AR5 in 2013 with increased focus on extremes and regional aspects?focus on extremes and regional aspects?
What other products should we consider for marine climatology?What other products should we consider for marine climatology?
CHARACTERISTICS REQUIRED FROM CHARACTERISTICS REQUIRED FROM INDICESINDICES• Indices should cover a range of Indices should cover a range of time and space scalestime and space scales, multi-decadal to , multi-decadal to
daily, global to regional and be relevant to their target audience daily, global to regional and be relevant to their target audience
• Indices should represent importantIndices should represent important impact-relevant impact-relevant aspects of the aspects of the climate system and where possible climate system and where possible link to the IPCClink to the IPCC..
• It must be possible to calculate and update the indices It must be possible to calculate and update the indices from existing from existing datadata..
• The indices must be prioritized due to The indices must be prioritized due to limits in capacity.limits in capacity.
• Indices can Indices can synthesize information and reduce noisesynthesize information and reduce noise by combining by combining different components of the climate system.different components of the climate system.
• Indices should be based on Indices should be based on homogenized homogenized and quality controlled and quality controlled datasets, well-understood models or reanalyses, or reliable predictions.datasets, well-understood models or reanalyses, or reliable predictions.
• Indices should have a Indices should have a good signal to noise ratiogood signal to noise ratio..
• A subset of indices should be suitable for A subset of indices should be suitable for presentation to politicianspresentation to politicians
• Common climate indicesCommon climate indices should be developed for models and should be developed for models and observationsobservations
• Indices should be robust for detection, important and Indices should be robust for detection, important and doabledoable
MARINE DATA SOURCES AND MARINE DATA SOURCES AND PROGRAMSPROGRAMS• ICOADS – ships (from 1662), moored and drifting buoysICOADS – ships (from 1662), moored and drifting buoys
• World Ocean Database (WOD)World Ocean Database (WOD)• Global Digital Sea Ice Data Global Digital Sea Ice Data BankBank (GDSIDB) (GDSIDB) • Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL)Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL)• Derived data sets – HadISST, HadSLP, HadGOA (Derived data sets – HadISST, HadSLP, HadGOA (www.hadobs.orgwww.hadobs.org ) )• Satellite – SST, wind, wave, ice, sea levelSatellite – SST, wind, wave, ice, sea level• ReanalysesReanalyses
• Shipboard Automated Meteorological and Oceanographic System Shipboard Automated Meteorological and Oceanographic System Initiative Initiative
• Global Ocean Surface Underway Data Pilot Project Global Ocean Surface Underway Data Pilot Project • Ship Observations TeamShip Observations Team• Data Buoy Cooperation PanelData Buoy Cooperation Panel• ArgoArgo• Ocean SitesOcean Sites• Global Sea Level Observing System Global Sea Level Observing System • International Ocean Carbon Coordination ProjectInternational Ocean Carbon Coordination Project• Global Temperature and Salinity Profile ProgramGlobal Temperature and Salinity Profile Program• JCOMMOPS (JCOMMOPS (www.jcommops.orgwww.jcommops.org ) )
Annual numbers of marine reports in ICOADS, stratified by platform type for 1936 to 2005
(Woodruff et al. 2008)
The potential for marine indices
Operational Resources required
Research required
Data required
Large scale pressure (e.g. NAO, PNA)
Temperature indices Atlantic Meridional Circulation
Max & min temperatures
Large scale temperature (e.g ENSO)
Marine winds and pressures
Currents Wind gusts
Sea Ice parameters Waves Polar lows. Storm surges
Ocean heat content Sea level Hydrographic time series (e.g. ICES)
Extremes
Salinity measures Fisheries information & biology
Precipitation
Ocean transports and water mass properties
Ocean chemistry (e.g. dissolved oxygen)
Ph/Ocean Acidification
Hurricanes
Clouds, humidity.
“Operational” Marine Indices
• Large Scale Pressure Indices• Calculated by many different groups.• Selection available from Ocean Observing Panel for
Climate (OOPC) website.• Link to existing sources
• Large Scale Temperatures Indices• Global mean temperature.• Gridded temperature anomalies.• Long term datasets, back to 1850• Available from www.hadobs.org• El Nino (e.g. Nino 3.4 Temperatures), link to OOPC
website• Sea Ice
• E.g. global scale ice extent; regional ice extents• Available from JCOMM Expert Team on Sea Ice or US
Multivariate ENSO Index Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI)(MEI)
• Based on the six main observed variables over the tropical Pacific: Based on the six main observed variables over the tropical Pacific: sea-level pressure, zonal and meridional surface wind, surface air sea-level pressure, zonal and meridional surface wind, surface air and sea temperature and total cloudiness fraction, in ICOADSand sea temperature and total cloudiness fraction, in ICOADS. .
• MEI is calculated as the first unrotated Principal Component (PC) of MEI is calculated as the first unrotated Principal Component (PC) of all six observed fields combined. Negative values of the MEI all six observed fields combined. Negative values of the MEI represent the cold ENSO phase, La Niña, while positive MEI values represent the cold ENSO phase, La Niña, while positive MEI values represent the warm ENSO phase (El Niño). represent the warm ENSO phase (El Niño).
Enabling Enabling MechanismsMechanismsICOADS ICOADS - Critical and critically under-resourced- Critical and critically under-resourced
Proposed new initiative for value-added ICOADS (QC, bias Proposed new initiative for value-added ICOADS (QC, bias corrections, etc.)corrections, etc.)
JCOMM Expert Teams JCOMM Expert Teams Wind Waves and Storm SurgesWind Waves and Storm SurgesSea IceSea IceMarine ClimatologyMarine Climatology
Task Team on the Marine-meteorological and Task Team on the Marine-meteorological and Oceanographic Summaries (TT-MOCS)Oceanographic Summaries (TT-MOCS)
Task Team on Delayed-Mode VOS (TT-DMVOS)Task Team on Delayed-Mode VOS (TT-DMVOS)
Engage expertise within the CLIMAR community to assist in the Engage expertise within the CLIMAR community to assist in the development and production of marine indices(development and production of marine indices(marineclimatology.netmarineclimatology.net))
Liaise with other groups interested in marine indices such as the AOPC Liaise with other groups interested in marine indices such as the AOPC and OOPCand OOPC