Adaptation to climate change in Vietnam Dr. Dave A. D‘haeze Belo Horizonte, September 11th 2013
Mar 22, 2016
Adaptation to climate change in Vietnam
Dr. Dave A. D‘haeze
Belo Horizonte, September 11th 2013
Climate Change Predictions
Vietnam • Temperature increase: +0.8 - 2.7°C by 2060 and +1.4 - 4.2°C by 2090
• Rainfall increase: +33% by 2090 in Aug., Sep. & Oct.
• Extreme rainfall events increase: +2 to 14% by 2090 from May to Oct.
• Rainfall decrease in the dry season: - 62% in February, March and April
• Annual river flows: increase in the North; decrease in the South
Central Highlands • Days above 25°C increase: 79 in the base year 94 in 2020, 134 in 2050
and 230 in 2100
• Evapotranspiration increase: +8.5% (1,726mm) between 2040 and 2059; +14.47% (1,821mm) between 2080 and 2099
• Groundwater level decrease: after 2020 due to overexploitation and the decrease in groundwater recharge
2
Land Suitability Predictions - Current
Land Suitability Predictions - 2020
Optimum producing zone will increase by 2050 to altitude 600 -1000m asl (currently 300 - 900m asl)
Land Suitability Predictions - 2050
• Rising temperatures and higer maximum temperatures
Flower abortion
Higher evapotranspiration rate and
irrigation demand
• Irregular and heavy and intermittent rains
Several poor flowerings and poor fruit set
Increased erosion
Rainfall during harvesting, difficult coffee drying, lower coffee quality
• Irregular dry periods
Drought stress required
Not too long
• Falling ground water levels
Vulnerability of Coffee Production
• (no regret) measures (short-term)
Ground cover
More efficient irrigation
Zero-tillage
• Experiment with (mid-term)
Drip irrigation
Crop diversification and shade trees
Application of Hydro-polymers
Centralized drying
• Collect more data (long-term)
Metereological
Groundwater levels
Pests (cicadas)
Adaptation Priorities Identified
• Irrigation is critical to make coffee farming an economically viable livelihood activity
Dak Lak province : 40% national coffee production
Excessive irrigation
Irrigation costs 15-20% of the total production costs (labor, energy & equipment)
57% of irrigation water is groundwater; 95% for coffee
Current irrigation is exploiting up to 71% of the total water resources
Water Footprint – Case Study
.
.
Gia Lai
Dak Lak
Son La
Quang Tri
Ha Noi
Lam Dong
Ho Chi Minh
• Irrigation application
Water Management – Case Study
462
132
40 67 -
100
200
300
400
Average yield Optimized yield
Irrigation (mm/ha) Production (60 kg bag/ha)
1,400 liter / tree / round
400 liter / tree / round
• Water Footprint
Global average: 21,000 liter/kg
Vietnam: circa 5,500 liter/kg
Water Management – Case Study
3.970
2.382
404
283
1.150
690
-
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
Average yield Optimized yield
lite
r/kg
Green WFP Blue WFP Grey WFP
1 Cup of Coffee
Vietnam: 46 liter of water
Potential: 32 liter of water
Global: 130 liter of water
Potential water saving: 30 %
Water Management – Case Study
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