Catastrophe Readiness and Response: A New Course Almost Ready for Final Release Rick Bissell, PhD
Jan 05, 2016
Catastrophe Readiness and Response: A New Course Almost Ready for Final Release
Catastrophe Readiness and Response: A New Course Almost Ready for Final Release
Rick Bissell, PhD
CatastrophesCatastrophes CNN Report: Climate Change
“Catastrophic”1
- 300,000 excess deaths/year now due to climate change
- 300 million vulnerable to climate change in 2009. This number is set to double by 2030.2
1.http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/europe/05/29/annan.climate.change.human/index.html
2. Global Humanitarian Forum: Human Impact Report: Climate Change --
The Anatomy of a Silent Crisis
AssumptionsAssumptions Catastrophes are fundamentally
different from run of the mill disasters- Lack of immediate mutual aid- Affect interlocked systems of
communications, power, transport, food delivery, health care, national commerce
- Span multiple jurisdictions and levels of government; overwhelming complexity
- Response is not just more of the same
Assumptions - 2Assumptions - 2 Future EMs will face more
catastrophes and more severe ones Political authorities will depend on
EMs for guidance International assistance (US
receiving as well as US providing) will become more common among North Atlantic countries
Assumptions - 3Assumptions - 3 All-hazards planning is not up to
the task; scenario-specific planning is required to deal with hypercomplex events
Flexibility and unconventional responses will be even more important, and they can be learned and planned
FEMA’s Three Approaches to Preparedness for Catastrophes
FEMA’s Three Approaches to Preparedness for Catastrophes
Scenario-based intensive planning for geographic regions, with traditional “top-down” plans and exercises.
Scenario-based intensive planning for geographic regions with “bottom-up” plans and exercises.
EMI course on catastrophe readiness and response.
ChargeCharge Develop a new course for upper
division undergraduates and graduate students on the tasks necessary for planning, preparedness for and response to catastrophes.
Status ReportStatus Report All course sessions have now been
reviewed by way of public comment and select outside reviewers.
Reviewers’ comments to be compiled for review meeting.
Revisions to be submitted by end of July.
New/Enhance Secondary CatastrophesNew/Enhance Secondary Catastrophes
Mass migration from newly uninhabitable lands becomes a catastrophe in itself.- So. Pacific island countries, heavily
populated lowland countries (Bangladesh, Netherlands, etc) and cities (NYC?, NOLA? Miami?)
- Desertification in Asia, Africa, Latin America and North America
Oldies but Goodies, Now More Frequent and PowerfulOldies but Goodies, Now More Frequent and Powerful
Hurricanes Flooding Drought Heat waves Epidemics/pandemics
Oldies but Goodies, Now More ComplexOldies but Goodies, Now More Complex
Networked and articulated electrical power systems
Networked and vulnerable information systems
Networked and articulated supplies delivery and management systems- See work of Lagadec, et al
Expiration of ResourcesExpiration of Resources Petroleum Natural gas Potable and irrigation water Food
Violent ConflictsViolent Conflicts Competition for scarce resources Changing world order Increasingly lethal weapons, with
wider distribution Rise of terrorism “Rogue” states
Cumulative Effects-> More CatastrophesCumulative Effects-> More Catastrophes
Loss of arable land and useable water leads to increased food shortage
Increased desperation leads to mass migration, violence, or both
Increased intensity of storms presents many direct dangers, but also can contribute to loss of arable land, useable water and food.
What to Do? What to Do? Mitigation: many worldwide attempts
to mitigate climate change and its effects
Preparedness:- Many European and Asian countries
preparing for direct effects.- Some intercontinental preparedness
activities (Lagadec, et al)- FEMA, three approaches
ExpectationsExpectations Course instructors may not have
deep background in this field; instructor guidance needs to be comprehensive.
FEMA catastrophe planning provides good examples, but it is rapidly changing.
Students will need to do much background reading (10-15 hrs/wk).
Course StructureCourse Structure 15-week semester 3 credit hours 11 core sessions, 2 case studies, 1
tabletop exercise, 1 summary and final exam, and at least 3 add-on sessions
Each session has some kind of class exercise.
Designed for in-class; easily converted to online.
Sessions 1 & 2 Sessions 1 & 2 1. Course Introduction: Definitions,
Background, Differences Between Disasters and Catastrophes- Lead developer: Bissell- Status: Available for review and comments
2. Mechanisms of Past and Future Catastrophes- Lead developer: Bissell- Status: Available for review and comments
Sessions 3-5Sessions 3-5 Session 3: Variables and Relationships
- Lead developer: David McEntire- Status: Available for review and comments
Session 4: Ethics- Lead developer: Anna Schwab- Status: Will be available 1 July 09
Session 5: Political and Legal Issues- Lead developer: John Pine- Status: Available for review and comments
Sessions 6-7Sessions 6-7 Session 6: Social and Economic Issues
- Lead developer: Kevin Simmons- Status: Available for review and
comments Session 7: Logistics, Critical
Infrastructure and Public Health- Developers: Tricia Wachtendorf, Rick
Bissell, Drew Bumbak- Status: Available for review and
comments
Sessions 8-10Sessions 8-10 Session 8: Mass Relocation
- Lead developer: Anthony Oliver-Smith- Status: Available for review and comments
Session 9: Planning Strategies and Skills: Response- Lead developer: Brian Maguire- Status: Available for review and comments
Session 10: Planning Strategies and Skills: Recovery/Reconstruction- Lead developer: Gavin Smith- Status: Available for review and comments
Sessions 11-13Sessions 11-13 Session 11: Emergent Organizations and
Networks- Lead developer: Tricia Wachtendorf- Status: Available for review and comments
Session 12: NMSZ and New Catastrophe Planning Methods- Lead developers: Scott Wells, Jasmin Ruback- Status: Expected by July
Session 13: Case Study: Pandemic Flu- Lead developers: Bissell and Tom Kirsch- Status: Available for review and comments
Sessions 14-15Sessions 14-15 Session 14: Tabletop Exercise
- Lead developer: Myra Socher- Status: Available for review and
comments Session 15: Summary and Exam
- Lead developer: Bissell- Status: Expected by July
Add-on SessionsAdd-on Sessions Leadership
- Lead developer: TBA North Atlantic Collaboration
- Lead developer: Erwan Lagadec Catastrophe Mental Health / PTSD
- Lead developer: Jeff Mitchell
Institutional PartnersInstitutional Partners Center for Transatlantic Relations
& the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (Lagadec)
Questions???Questions???