Case Study_Non-Traditional Security Threats and Global Governance

Non-Traditional Security Threats and Global

Governance: A case study of Water-Food-

Energy Nexus

Mohamamd Naeem Shinwari

Shakeel Ahmad Ramay

Acronyms

IEA

FAO

OECD

WFO

UN

UNDP

UNEP

WWDR

Table of Contents Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 4

Methodology ................................................................................................................................................. 4

Basic Concepts ............................................................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined.

Water Security .............................................................................................................................................. 4

Food Security ................................................................................................................................................ 5

Figure-1: Conceptual Framework of Food Secuirty .............................................................................. 6

Energy Security ............................................................................................................................................. 6

Current status ............................................................................................................................................... 7

Water ........................................................................................................................................................ 7

Food Security ............................................................................................................................................ 8

Energy ....................................................................................................................................................... 9

Figure-2 Energy Consumption............................................................................................................. 10

Future Scenario for Water, Food and Energy ............................................................................................. 11

Figure 3: Increased water requirement for the production of food will increase many folds in future

............................................................................................................................................................ 14

Water Food and Energy Nexus ................................................................................................................... 15

Figure 4: Integrated Solution Approach .............................................................................................. 17

Water-Food-Energy Nexus and Human Security ....................................................................................... 18

Figure 5: Maslow pyramid .................................................................................................................. 18

Non Traditional Security Threat .................................................................................................................. 18

Water Conflicts ....................................................................................................................................... 19

Conflicts on Food .................................................................................................................................... 19

Conflicts over energy .............................................................................................................................. 20

Conclusion ................................................................................................................................................... 21

Recommendations .................................................................................................................................. 21

Global Set Up .......................................................................................................................................... 22

Figure: 6 Global System ...................................................................................................................... 22

National System ...................................................................................................................................... 23

Figure 7: National System ................................................................................................................... 23

Non-Traditional Security Threats and Global Governance: A case study of Water-Food-Energy Nexus

Introduction The world today is faced with multiple yet integrated problems ranging from depleting basic

needs such as food, water, and energy to the crimes committed by using most sophisticated

technologies and products, e.g. space, cyber, etc. On the one hand, the gravity of problems is

increasing with the passage of time; while on the other efforts to tackle these problems are

considerably lagging behind. In addition, climate change has a multiplier effect on these

problems thus impacting access and provision, as well as quality and quantity of water, food,

energy, livelihoods, and so on.

Water, food and energy are the basic necessities of life. In olden times, all the civilizations

emerged and flourished around these three elements. This paper will discuss the nexus between

water, food and energy while analyzing the interaction among these three areas. . Finally, it will

look into the security implications of this nexus and analyze global governance system to find

appropriate solutions.

Methodology Both the qualitative and quantitative tools will be applied in this paper. The qualitative part will

be completed through desk research and literature review whereas the quantitative part will be

completed through field visits and interviews of different people in the field. Random sampling

technique would be used to select the respondents. On the basis of these interviews, two case

studies would be developed.

Water Security Water is the fundamental and necessary element for life on the planet earth. The preference for

humans to settle in an area was based on the availability of water hence most of the initial

settlements and cities were developed along the river lines. History illustrates that one of the

factors for migration was shortage of water in the area of origin. Ancient Egyptian civilization

along the lower reaches of Nile River and Indus valley civilization along Indus River may be

quoted in this regard.

The multiple uses of water in our daily life such as drinking, sanitation, washing, food

production, etc., show the importance of water and call for its security. This importance has been

emphasized by the UN where access to safe drinking water and sanitation is considered a basic

need (UNDP 2000). However, the goal does not satisfy the multi-dimensional phenomenon

around water related issues. Important areas where water is required such as ecosystem services,

agricultural and industrial needs, etc. are missing in the demarcation. The same areas are

considered pertinent in the projected situation of scarcity and changing climate, as pointed out by

UNEP (2010, p. ) in the following lines:

Water security represents a unifying element supplying humanity with drinking water,

hygiene and sanitation, food and fish, industrial resources, energy, transportation and

natural amenities, all dependent upon maintaining ecosystem health and productivity.

Food Security FAO (1996, p. ) defined food security as:

When all people, at all time, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and

nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy

life.

Swaminathan (1998) classified the evaluation of food security definition in the following

periods;

1. 1940-60- Production or physical availability

2. 1970- Access to food produced

3. 1980- Food security take consideration at individual level

4. 1990- Biologically absorption for an active life and participation in society

Recently, Food Agriculture Organization (FAO) included stability as one of the indicators in

food security conceptual framework (Figure-1).

Figure-1: Conceptual Framework of Food Security

Food is the basic element for survival, and for healthy and active life, which is necessary to take

part in economic activities and achieve prosperity. On the contrary, food insecurity can cause

bad health and poverty. In developing and least developed countries, economic access enabling

food access and absorption of food are the most pressing issues.

Energy Security Today’s modern life is critically dependent on and revolves around different forms of energy,

which is a prerequisite for economic development and to sustain an improved lifestyle. The

quest of developing countries to industrialize, and developed countries to sustain their

development, has led to increase in energy demand putting pressure on the available resources.

This has led to finding ways and means to curb an unsustainable use of available energy

resources.

Although, energy security is an old discourse, it is now becoming more intense, complicated and

urgent due to depleting resources. The situation has been exacerbated in present times coupled

with the phenomena of climate change where use of some energy forms is harmful to the

environment. AGECC (2010, p. ) defines energy security as:

“Access to clean, reliable and affordable energy services for cooking and heating,

lighting, communications and productive uses while respecting the environmental

concerns”.

International Energy Association defines energy security as: “uninterrupted availability of

energy resources at affordable prices”.

Alternative or renewable energy resources are gaining more and more importance in the debate

on energy sustainability and security, especially in the context of climate change. Developed

countries are focusing on renewable energy resources; however developing countries and

specifically emerging economies are spearheading huge investments in exploring and installing

renewable energy options, e.g. China in solar and wind energy.

Current status

Water

The current state of water, food and energy is alarming, as the world is facing problems to

manage these resources efficiently. Water is becoming a scarce commodity in Asia and Africa

due to an ever increasing trend. It is a recognized fact that only 2.5 per cent of water in the world

is available for consumption whereas the remaining 97.5 per cent is ocean water. The per capita

availability of water at global level is decreasing. The situation is getting worse with an increase

in population, demand of water in other sectors, and impact of climate change. It is estimated

that about 97 per cent of available freshwater is stored underground or in the form of ice while

the planet has only 3 per cent available for all purposes (UN 2010). However, water is not

equally distributed among countries and 10 countries namely Brazil, Russia, China, USA,

Canada, Indonesia, Columbia, DRC, India, and Tajikistan and Uzbekistan possess almost 60 per

cent of this available freshwater (Helvi 2013). The available consumable water is also not

equally distributed within a country; some regions have more and some less.

Major problem is overconsumption of water for different purposes, including agriculture,

industry, energy, drinking and sanitation. Continuity of this trend will and the objective of

emerging middle class to achieve the lifestyle of north would require 3.5 planet earth equivalent

times’ resources (UNESCO 2012). Some countries are already over exploiting the available

resources to meet their national demands. It is learnt that a number of countries are over

exploiting their groundwater resources. Mexico, China and India are exploiting its ground

resources 20, 26 and 56 per cent more than the standard level of extraction (UNDP 2008).

At present, 70 per cent of all available freshwater is used in agriculture followed by energy

sector, which consumes 20 per cent, and the third largest is the domestic use, i.e. only 10 per cent

(FAO 2011).

Table: 1 Three high water consuming sectors

Sector Water Use (Percent)

Agriculture 70

Industry 20

Domestic 10

Pollution of water is another area of concern. About 80 per cent of untreated affluent of waste is

mixed with water, which causes water pollution at a large-scale. Nitrate is the major source of

pollution from agriculture. Industry contributes almost 300-400 Metric Tons of waste to water

every year (UN Water 2010).

Food Security

Food security has been an area of concern since long. About 842 million people are still facing

problems of chronic hunger, undernourishment and lack of access to healthy food (WFO …).

Although the number has decreased compared to the previous year, i.e. 862 million, it is still

very high (FAO 2013). The absolute number has decreased mainly due to decrease in food

insecurity in China but it is still a matter of great concern since food insecurity is unevenly

distributed among countries. It is more chronic in developing and least developed countries like

India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sub Saharan Africa, etc.

Table No. 2: Undernourishment around the world, 1999-92 to 2011-13

Number of undernourished (millions) and prevalence (%) of undernourishment

1990-92 2000-2002 2005-07 2008-10 2011-13*

WORLD 1015.3 957.3 906.6 878.2 842.3

18.9% 15.5% 13.8% 12.9% 12.0%

DEVELOPED

REGIONS

19.8 18.4 13.6 15.2 15.7

<5% <5% <5% <5% <5%

DEVELOPING

REGIONS

995.5 938.9 892.9 863.0 826.6

23.6% 18.8% 16.7% 15.5% 14.3%

Source: Food and Agriculture Organization 2013

Incident of food insecurity is very high in Sub-Saharan Africa, and South Asia along with

developing and least developed countries. With the passage of time, it has become more sever

and complicated. Absolute number of food insecurity has increased in Africa. Past achievement

in food security area can be mainly attributed to China, Brazil, and some Asian countries. The

major factors in this spatial difference is price volatility, poverty, lack of access to land, and

depleting natural resources.

Table No. 3: Undernourished People and Region

Regions/sub

regions/countries

Number of people undernourished

1990-

1992

2000-2002 2005-

2007

2008-

2010

2011-2013 Change

so far

(millions) (%)

Africa 173.1 209.5 212.8 221.6 222.7 28.7

Asia and Pacific 735 643.6 599.3 562.7 528.7 -28.1

Europe and Central Asia 10 12.3 8 7.7 6.1 39.1

Latin America and Caribbean 65.6 61 54.6 50.3 47 -28.4

Near East and North Africa 25.8 29.9 37.2 41.2 43.7 69.4

Source: Food and Agriculture Organization 2013

Food insecurity causes social and economic problems due to its crucial role in the development

of human capital. Quality food and its proper utilization is fundamental for human capital

development, vibrant economic growth, and development (Cook 2009). It hampers economic

growth and development and put additional burden on the country’s resources in the form of aid

and subsidizing food security related services like health, water supply, etc. For example, in

Middle East and North Africa (MENA), countries hug subsidies for food and other services

(Breisinger 2010).

Energy Energy is another area of prime importance for sustainable development. It has multiple uses in

our daily life, e.g. lighting, cooking, heating, transportation, industry, etc. Modern life style

seems to be incomplete without energy. Prior to the modern forms of energy use, human and or

animal energy was used to extract and transport water and food production, processing and

transportation.

After the discovery of fossil fuels, the world focus shifted towards the new forms of energy

resources. Industrial development is indebted to the fossil fuels discovery. It also contributed to

increase in per capita use of energy (74 MBTU, 2011). Fossil fuel consumption increased sharply

after the World War II due to rebuilding of Japan and Europe, Creation of jobs for returning

soldiers, and development of US oil industry.

Increase in energy consumption can also be attributed to huge subsidies provided to consumers

by the government. Fossil fuel subsidies have increased almost 30 per cent, i.e. 523 billion US$

(IEA 2013)). However, at the same time about 1.3 billion world populations have no access to

electricity. Energy intensity exhibited a decline in recent years from 7.9 Thousand British

thermal unit (TBTU) in 2005 to 7.2 TBTU in 2012, but it is still quite high (EIA 2013). Recent

trends also show that the non-OECD countries are moving faster than the OECD countries in

energy consumption. This trend can be attributed to rapid economic growth, changing lifestyle

and emerging middle class. Projections show that if the trend continues then non-OECD

countries will consume more energy in 2050 than OECD today.

Figure-2 Energy Consumption

Source: International Energy Outlook, 2013.

Table-4 Energy Consumption

Region/Country 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

OECD

OECD Americas 123.83 122.402 117.032 120.167 119.813 118.375 119.012

United States 101.015 99.45 94.939 97.944 97.3 95.674 95.871

Canada 14.331 14.156 13.666 13.465 13.577 13.613 13.842

Mexico/Chile 8.483 8.796 8.427 8.759 8.935 9.088 9.298

OECD Europe 83.999 83.858 79.984 82.475 82.665 81.596 81.336

OECD Asia 39.356 38.879 37.73 39.607 39.371 39.522 39.503

Japan 22.896 22.187 20.98 22.105 21.625 21.579 21.363

0

200

400

600 800

South Korea 9.79 9.977 10.055 10.826 11.017 11.093 11.274

Australia/New Zealand 6.67 6.715 6.695 6.676 6.729 6.85 6.866

Total OECD 247.185 245.139 234.746 242.25 241.848 239.493 239.85

Non-OECD

Non-

OECD Europe and Eurasia 48.377 49.427 43.711 47.241 47.539 47.545 48.604

Russia 28.811 29.773 27.014 29.643 29.329 29.512 30.297

Other 19.566 19.655 16.697 17.598 18.209 18.034 18.307

Non-OECD Asia 129.244 137.114 148.094 159.023 168.116 173.617 177.56

China 79.631 85.12 93.146 101.222 110.101 115.453 118.237

India 19.997 21.1 23.138 24.408 24.931 25.208 26.045

Other 29.616 30.895 31.81 33.392 33.083 32.956 33.278

Middle East 23.025 25.258 26.559 27.756 30.364 31.063 31.517

Africa 17.577 18.649 18.39 18.94 18.839 18.938 18.952

Central and South America 26.459 27.404 26.933 28.713 29.664 29.708 30.346

Brazil 12.329 12.662 12.65 13.718 14.062 13.999 14.42

Other 14.13 14.741 14.283 14.995 15.602 15.709 15.926

Total Non-OECD 244.683 257.852 263.686 281.673 294.522 300.871 306.98

Total World 491.867 502.991 498.432 523.923 536.37 540.363 546.83

Sources: World energy consumption, History: EIA, International Energy Statistics database (November

2012), www.eia.gov/ies. Projections: EIA, World Energy Projection System Plus (2013).

Future Scenario for Water, Food and Energy

Demand and supply gap of water, food and energy will be widened in future due to multiple

reasons and interaction among these areas. It is projected that world population will be 8 billion

by 2030 from 7 billion today and it will further increase to 9 billion in 2050 (UN 2009).

Moreover, the urban population will increase 50 per cent more than present times. At present, the

world has 24 megacities with a population of more than 10 million each. It is estimated that

China and India will lead the process of urbanization. At present, the urbanization trend in China

is 46 per cent, and in India it is 30 per cent. It is likely to increase 73 per cent and 55 per cent

respectively by 2050 (UN Habitat 2009). At the same time, the economic growth will be more

rapid in emerging economies, i.e. about 6.7 per cent, which will further complicate the situation

(WB 2010).

These factors will contribute to increase the demand of water, food and energy in future. Global

demand of cereals and meat will increase by 50 and 42 per cent respectively by 2025. This will

require a substantial additional amount of water and energy to produce that amount of food. As

predicted by WWDR (2012), the demand of water will increase by 19 percent by 2050.

Agriculture and food consume almost 30 per cent of energy (IEA 2013, WEF 2011).

In order to meet the increasing demand of food, 70-100 per cent increase in the production of

food would be required. Globally 10 per cent more food will be needed (20 per cent in

developing countries and 30 per cent in Latin American countries) (Bruisnma 2009). Similarly,

demand for fertilizers will also increase, and if we take additional 10 per cent biofuel into

account then the fossil phosphorus resources will deplete in next 50 years (Rosemarin 2011).

It seems very difficult to achieve food security against the prevailing situation and the expected

future challenges, i.e. increased demand, climate change, etc. UNEP had predicted that in 2050

the farmers will have to increase their production by 70-100 per cent in order to meet the

increased demand. The demand will be accelerated due to multiple factors like increase in

population, higher income, rapid economic growth in developing countries and more demand of

meat and animal products (UNEP 2009). However, it would be difficult to meet this demand due

to low productivity, less availability of water for agriculture and energy crisis. There will be 10-

25 per cent decrease in production by 2030 (Cline 2009). In India, it can even go down 40 per

cent, which will not only affect food production but also badly impact livelihood of people. Food

production system is one of the major employers (65%) in developing and least developed

countries (Cline 2007).

There would be a sharp decline of 2.5 to 10 per cent in the yield of crops by 2020s and 5 to 30

per cent by 2050s from the levels of 1990s in Asia (IPCC 2007), which will directly impact food

security. Impact of this change will be more sever in developing and least developed countries,

which are already food insecure.

The other dimension of the problem is that there would be increased demand for energy and

water to produce food with limited water and energy supply. On top of that climate change will

limit the choices to use the form of energy and worsen the situation of water availability and its

quality.

Energy demand will also increase in future to sustain the lifestyle and emerging needs of middle

class across the world. More energy would be required for desalinization, pumping, supply of

water and production, processing, and transportation of food. 40 per cent more energy would be

required by 2030 for sustaining the current trends of growth and development (IEA 2012).

China, India and other non-OECD countries would be at forefront of this rapid increase in the

demand of energy. China will have to increase its energy production by 1300 Giga Watt (GW)

and India by 400 GW. However, Mckinsey and Company pointed out that about 77 per cent of

the required infrastructure is missing (Project Catalyst 2009). The world has to meet these

demands in the presence of 1.3 billion people without access to energy while 3 billion using

biomass as major source of energy (ESF 2010).

Table below shows that demand for all forms of energy will increase. 75 per cent of energy

demand will be met through fossil fuel, dominantly by coal. As a result, the concentration of

carbon would be 100 part per million (PPM) by the end of 2050 (IEA 2009, p.). It will accelerate

climate change, and negatively impact food production and water sector.

Table 5: Energy Demand in Future (Quadrillion Btu)

Region/Country 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

OECD

OECD Americas 120.167 121.347 126.134 129.743 132.898 137.196 143.577

OECD Europe 82.475 82.145 85.475 88.599 90.874 92.792 94.618

OECD Asia 39.607 40.609 42.951 44.332 45.405 46.115 46.383

Total OECD 242.25 244.101 254.561 262.674 269.176 276.103 284.578

Non-OECD

Non-

OECD Europe and Eurasia

47.241 49.848 53.278 56.836 60.825 64.624 67.121

Non-OECD Asia 159.023 194.323 230.281 261.552 290.428 317.229 337.486

Middle East 27.756 33.097 36.622 39.49 42.524 45.718 48.817

Africa 18.94 19.618 21.874 24.358 27.397 30.965 35.016

Central and South America 28.713 31.022 33.217 35.455 38.836 42.494 46.627

Total Non-OECD 281.673 327.908 375.271 417.692 460.011 501.031 535.067

Total World

Liquids 176.133 185.533 194.703 202.138 210.852 221.105 232.59

Natural Gas 116.805 124.225 135.956 148.455 162.591 177.43 191.32

Coal 147.448 164.588 180.268 195.99 207.906 216.681 219.507

Nuclear 27.289 30.413 37.887 44.312 49.51 53.452 57.175

Other 56.249 67.25 81.016 89.47 98.327 108.466 119.053

Total 523.923 572.009 629.831 680.365 729.187 777.135 819.645

Source: EIA 2013

There will also be an increase in demand and production of renewable energy resources,

including bio-fuels. To fulfil the energy consumption needs of vehicles (5% globally), the world

will require 3.2 million barrels of bio-fuel per day (IEA --). To process this fuel, 20 to 100 per

cent of water will be required, which is now being used in the production of food and other

agriculture products (IWMI 2007). This clearly shows the inter-linkages of three sectors and how

a decision in one sector can impact the two others.

Water is central in this debate and nexus. It is used in energy and food production and

processing. Although agriculture is the biggest consumer of water, its demand in energy sector is

increasing rapidly. Water used during production of various forms of energy is given below.

Table: 6: Production of Various Forms of Energy and Water Requirement

Source Raw Materials Transformation Delivery

Oil

Traditional oil

Enhanced oil recovery

Oil sands

3-7

50-9000

70-1800

25-65 Minimal

Biofuels

Corn

Soy

9000-100000

50000-270000

Ethanol: 47-50

Biodiesel: 14

Minimal

Coal 5-70 Coal to liquid: 140-220 Minimal

Gas

Traditional

Shale gas

Minimal

36-54

Natural gas processing

7

Minimal

Source: World Economic Forum with Cambridge Energy Research Associates. 2008. Energy Vision

Update 2009. Thirsty Energy: Water and Energy in the 21st Century. Geneva

Water consumption will be doubled (135 billion cubic meters) in 2035 from its present

consumption of 66 billion cubic meters in North America (Energy Outlook 2013). Presently,

about 10 per cent water is used in oil production, which will be 18 per cent in 2050 due to

increase in production of non-traditional oil sources. Overall water consumption in energy will

also increase (Table-7).

Table 7: Population, energy consumption and water for energy 2005-2050 based on Aquastat,

2010; WEC Scenarios, 2007 (model updated in 2009); DOE-NETL, 2008; UNESCO-IHE, 2008;

Gleick, 1994

World 2005 2020 2035 2050

Population (million) 6290 7842.3 8601.1 9439

Energy

Consumption (EJ)

328.7 400.4 464.9 518.8

Energy

Consumption

(GJ/capita)

52.3 51.1 54.1 55

Water for energy

(bill m3/year)

1815.6 1986.4 2087.8 2020.1

Water for energy

(m3/capita)

288.6 253.3 242.7 214

Source: World Energy Council 2010

Climate change is another reason that is encumbering the energy sector to find clean sources of

energy. In this pursuit, the world is looking for new forms of energy like biofuels, i.e. ethanol

and biodiesel. The table above shows that the biofuels would require large amount of water. This

will put further strain on the scarce resources of water.

Figure 3: Increased water requirement for the production of food will increase manifold in

future.

Source: Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal

The situation illustrates that water demand will increase in future, but unfortunately the world is

already facing problems on the availability and access of water. Already 11 per cent of the

population has no access to drinking water, and 47 per cent of the world population will face

water scarcity by 2050 (WWDR 2012). Climate change will impact the availability and quality

of water. It will also increase the frequency and intensity of water related disasters such as

cholera, dengue, etc. By 2050, about two billion people will be vulnerable to face water related

disasters (WWDR 2012, IPCC 2007). About $70 to 100 billion per year investment would be

required from 2020 to 2050 to adapt to climate change (WWDR 2012).

Apart from other reasons, over consumption is a more burden on water resources. As we get

richer, we consume more water. During 1990-2000, the population increased by a factor of 4

while the water demand increased by factor of 9 (Mcneil 2000). It is observed that a number of

countries are over exploiting their groundwater resources. Mexico, China and India are

exploiting their ground sources (20, 26 and 56 per cent) more than the standard level of

extraction (UNDP 2008).

Water Food and Energy Nexus

Water, food and energy have a strong linkage from the beginning. However, the rising

population and lifestyle brought these sectors under limelight. Natural or human made changes in

one sector impact the other two or one of the remaining two sectors. The three sectors are

dependent on each other in processes and consumption. The linkages are very complex as water

is used directly and indirectly in energy production. Hydropower is a direct energy product and

water is also used in the extraction, refining, production and cooling during fossil energy

production. Water is also used indirectly in the production of biofuels. Energy is used in

pumping, supplying, desalinization of water, irrigation, etc. Both the water and energy are used

in food production in different forms and at different stages, e.g. irrigation, cleaning, processing,

production fertilizers, pesticides, transportation of food, etc. (Lankford 2012).

The whole discussion shows that these three sectors are highly integrated and decision or action

in one sector will impact the other. Increasing demand in one sector, directly or indirectly, affects

the planning, policy and implementation in other sectors. Furthermore, demand of these will

increase in future due to similar factors like population, urbanization, economic growth,

emerging middle class and improving lifestyle, etc. Problems would also be similar like climate

change, scarcity and higher integration among them. This inter-connectedness shows a strong

nexus among all these factors, therefore, it should be treated as nexus rather than independent

entities or sectors.

We need a uniform, comprehensive and integrated approach to manage these resources and their

demand in future. I suggest these sectors should be addressed simultaneously with integrated

solution approach. Multiple instruments and strategies could be devised to tackle the issue but

the key and the most important is the attainment of EFFICIENCY and NEED BASED

ALLOCATIONS across all sectors.

Figure 4: Integrated Solution Approach

Water

Food Energy

Water-Food-Energy Nexus and Human Security

Life without water, food and energy is not possible since these are the fundamental requirements

to sustain and prosper. High standards of morality and values cannot be achieved without the

fulfillment of these basic needs, as shown in figure-5 (Maslow 1943). After ensuring these basic

needs, we can move to the idea of well-being.

Figure 5: Maslow pyramid

Source: Maslow 1943

Non Traditional Security Threat As shown in fig 5, water, food and energy are the basic elements on which the whole pyramid is

developed and sustained. Therefore, scarcity or non-availability of water, food and energy can

tremble or destroy the whole pyramid, and same is true for the society. These factors are

fundamental to maintaining and sustaining peace and security in society. It is said that peace is

the pre-requisite for sustainable development. Individual security that is one of the basic needs

leads to security at all levels. The problem of individual security based on non-availability of

food, water and energy is framed as non-traditional security threats.

Non-traditional security threats have existed ever since however, these were brought to the

mainframe of discussion by the end of 20th century. Since then the issue and topic has gradually

gained momentum. However, more comprehensive elaboration came from a Pakistani scholar,

Dr. Mahbub ul Haq, in a report by UNDP titled “Redefining security: The Human Dimension”.

According to him, individual security should always be equated with security but not in

traditional terms, i.e. at state level. Report came out with a list of specific indicators of individual

security including, economic security, food security, health security, water, energy, &

environmental security, personal security, community security, and political security.

Water security has emerged as one of the biggest challenges of present day and future. After the

article by Starr in 1991, future wars on water; it has become important area of discussion in

security and research circle. Water security has multiple dimensions due to dependence of other

sectors on the availability of water, e.g. food production, energy production, drinking, sanitation,

building, etc. Therefore, scarcity of water will also impact the state of security in other sectors

(Houdert 2004). Von Braun (2009) mentioned that during 1946-1999 about 500 water-related

conflicts happened.

Water Conflicts

Water scarcity would give rise to conflicts among different groups and countries. Non-availability or

persistent droughts can force people to migrate which in turn can give rise to conflicts among the local

and migrated communities. A large number of Somalian nationals migrated to other countries due to

shortage of water and food. In South Sudan, conflicts arose due to drought, and a large number of people

had to migrate (UN 2013). Water related disasters will further complicate the situation. In 2010, about 22

million people were displaced in Pakistan and 1/5 of the country was inundated, which cost Pakistan

almost 10 billion dollars. Floods in other parts of the world also played the same havoc. In 2003, 70000

soldiers were deployed to maintain law and order during Katrina in the US (Joshua 2007).

Trans-boundary conflict over water is another concern. Pakistan and India are already facing this

problem, as over the years it has eerged as the biggest threat to relations between both the neighbouring

countries. Conflict on water is also emerging between Somalia and Egypt. Turkey’s plan to build dams

will impact water availability in Iraq and Syria and it will create problems among the three countries. A

report of Intelligence Community Assessment on Global Water Security released in March 2012 report

clearly mentioned that water scarcity will be a major area of concern. National conflict or instability is

likely to occur in next 10 years and intra state conflicts are expected to rise after 10 years (ICA 2012). In

2009, Global Policy indicated that 50 or more countries are highly vulnerable to conflicts over water-

related issues. Levy et al. (2005) identified Mekong delta countries, the Brahmaputra river, the Jordan

river, the Nile river, and the Indus river as prone to future conflicts.

Conflicts on Food

“Hunger anywhere threatens peace everywhere”.

Relation of food insecurity with conflict is very complex, and it has both way relations

(Swaminathan 1994). Food insecurity can cause or strengthen conflicts or vice versa. In Sudan

and Somalia, food insecurity caused and strengthened the conflict and conflict increased the food

insecurity (Simmons 2013). In Pakistan, the most food insecure areas are the most conflict-hit

areas, e.g. North Waziristan, Upper Dir, FATA, Kohlo, Dera Bugti, etc (SDPI 2009). However,

work on food insecurity in Afghanistan shows that prior to its invasion by the USSR and now the

continued war on terror, Afghanistan was a food secure country (Ramay 2011).

Seven countries occupy a large number of food insecure people. These are India, DRC, Ethiopia,

Pakistan, and Bangladesh. All these countries have evidences of conflicts relating to land, water

and food. Food insecurity can also cause communal conflicts, like in Rwanda, DRC, Nigeria,

etc. (Hendrix 2013). Messer and Cohen (2006) claimed that wars in late 20th century and early

21st century will be based on food. Food was used as an instrument to cause conflict and access

to food was also barred to intensify the conflict (Ellen 2006). Food insecurity and water are the

main reasons of armed conflict in mid-west region of Nepal (Upreti 2010).

Food insecurity can also cause timely riots. If not dealt with proper strategy, it can be the reason

for permanent conflicts. We have witnessed food-related riots in more than 60 countries after the

2007-08 food crisis. However, history of riot is not new, it can be traced back to Boston in 1713,

New York in 1837, the Southern 1863, Japanese 1918 and Egypt 1977 (Tilly 2010). Some

people also argue that drug mafia and conflict in Mexico, Columbia and Peru have also roots in

hunger and food insecurity (Soysa 1999).

Conflicts over energy

Energy has been the source of power politics and conflicts since ages. Slavery was a form of

creating hegemon over energy before the discovery of modern forms of energy. Energy resources

ownership or acquiring ownership by force is a historic reality. Energy related conflicts prevail at

all levels, i.e. community, ethnic, regional, national and international levels. Conflicts over

energy at ethnic and national level can be witnessed in Sudan (now, South and North Sudan, but

conflict still exists). Ethnic conflicts in Niger can also be related to discovery of oil in 1958 and

fight among different groups for ownership of resources (Solana 2007). Electricity problems in

Iraq (after war) and Dominican Republic caused riots in country while in Iraq alliance of

militants was gained on this slogan. Energy deficiency in Chad, DRC and Somalia further

exacerbated the situation (USAID 2010). Riots in Pakistan due to shortage of energy can be

quoted as another example.

At global level, energy is the major issue of concern and conflict, e.g. Hormuz issue, South

China Sea issue, Caspian Sea Basin, Egypt and Israel conflict, Israel and Lebanon, North and

South Sudan, etc. World powers are heavily engaged in securing maximum ownership and

access to energy resources. In 1980, the then US president Jimmy Carter had said that America

will secure Hormuz to ensure uninterrupted energy supply and Obama followed the same policy

with addition of Caspian and South China Sea (Klare 2012). War on terror is also considered by

some people as war for energy resources. Recent conflicts in Mali and action against Qaddafi in

Libya are also quoted as example to ensure the access to energy resources.

Energy produced from water is another form of constant conflict among different countries.

Construction of dams and diversion of water for energy production is a bone of contention

among countries. Mekong delta countries, the Brahmaputra river, the Jordan river, Nile river,

Great Lake in USA and Canada, and the Indus river are hotspot for future conflicts over

construction of dams and water sharing.

Water, food and energy are already facing scarcity and are contributing toward conflicts at all

levels. Climate change will further complicate and deteriorate the whole situation. Climate

change is inducing the problem of water scarcity, and the loss of productivity and production of

food. Climate change is also putting pressure to move towards the clean energy resources, which

will further put pressure on water and food resources. Climate change is being seen as multiplier

to existing challenges related to water, food and energy.

Conclusion The above discussion shows that there is a strong nexus among water, food and energy. These

are fundamental elements to sustain life. At the same time, they have strong linkages with peace

and security. However, these issues are not dealt with properly. Though a number of

organizations are working on these issues separately, there is a need to work on the nexus or

security dimensions. A system is required to deal with these areas simultaneously by using the

lenses of security.

Recommendation

1. Need based allocations, not demand based

2. Efficiency and productivity should be enhanced through investment research and

development and ---?

3. There would be change in lifestyle

4. Waste in all should be discourage by introducing proper means of incentives and

penalties

5. These problems should be looked through the lenses of security

Global Set Up

Figure: 6 Global System

UN Security Council is proposed as the main organ of decision making and implementation in

this regard. Moreover, UN Security Council is also responsible for ensuring peace and security at

global level. However, the problem of non-representativeness in UN Security Council remains.

Power at Security Council is highly skewed in the favor of few countries or dominantly in favor

of North.

WFE Policy Body

UN Security Council-Decision

Making

Food

Water

Energy

National System

Global system can also be replicated at national level in the following way;

Figure 7: National System

WFE and Defence Ministry

Policy Body

Head of Government

Decision Making

Food

Water

Energy

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