Case Studies of Storm Surges in Taiwan and Philippines and ...

Case Studies of Storm Surges in Taiwan and Philippines and the Development of Storm Surge Opera:onal System

Yu-LinTsai1,Tso-RenWu1,SimonC.Lin2,Chuan-YaoLin3,EricYen2,DenisF.Villorente4,andASTIGroup

1GraduateInsFtuteofHydrologicalandOceanicSciences,NCU,Taiwan2AcademiaSinicaGridCompuFng,ASGC,Taiwan

3ResearchCenterforEnvironmentalChanges,RCEC,Taiwan4AdvancedScienceandTechnologyInsFtute,ASTI,Philippines

Tsunami Science Laboratory

DisasterMiFgaFonWorkingGroup(CPD-1.24)APAN42atHongKong

STORMSURGE

•  Stormsurgeisacoastalfloodofrisingwatercommonly associated with low pressureweathersystems:ü  Tropicalcyclonesü  Stormsü  Typhoonsü  Hurricanes

•  The two main meteorological factorscontribuFngtoastormsurgeare:ü  Pressuregradientü  Windshearstress

SeaSurfaceinducedbytyphoons(Wiki)

TidalEffectwithStormSurges(Wiki)

Inunda?oninducedbyStormSurges •  Destroyofhomesandbusiness•  Poten@althreatofcoastalcommuni@es•  Damagesofroadsandbridges

Inunda@oninducedby2005HurricaneKatrina.(hHp://www.stormsurge.noaa.gov/)

Flooded by storm surge of Hurricane Katrina(2005)inthenorthwestNewOrleans.

Inunda?oninducedbyStormSurges

COPYRIGHT@HANWU( )

TyphoonsinEastAsia

TracksofalltropicalcyclonesinthenorthwesternPacificOceanbetween1951and2014.

Taiwan

China

Philippines

SouthChinaSea

PacificOcean

Japan Taiwan

Philippines

HongKong

Korea

HongKong-Catogory-4TyphoonHagupit2008.09.19–2008.09.25

TrackofTyphoonHagupit(HKO)

Saltwater Intrusion

Copyright@HKO(HuangandHuang,2008)

Hong Kong Local News

(HongKongObservatory)http://www.weather.gov.hk/m/article_uc.htm?title=ele_00184

RecordsofStormSurgeatVictoriaHarbour

StormSurge

ObservedWaterLevel

AstronomicalTide

Taiwan–Catogory-4TyphoonDujuan2015.09.15–2015.09.29

ThelowestpressureofTyphoonDujuanis925mb.Thehighest1—minutewindis205km/hr.

Satellite Image

InundaFonandSaltwaterIntrusion

Copyright@UDNNews

Copyright@UDNNews http://udn.com/news/story/3/1217285#prettyPhoto

Typhoon Haiyan was the strongest typhoon than tropical cyclones ever recorded, anddevastatedporFonsofSoutheastAsia,parFcularlythePhilippines,inearly-November2013.

2013SuperTyphoonHaiyaninthePhilippinesTyphoonLifeCycle:November3rd–November11th

TyphoonHaiyan:'Itwasliketheendoftheworld’.

TheTrackof2013TyphoonHaiyan

(Copyright:TheUSJointTyphoonWarningCenter)

SanJuanicoBridge Tagpuro BarangayRosal

1)  InundaFonheightwasmeasuredat5.9mneartheSanJuanicoBridge.

2)  SeawalldamageatTagpuroandtherun-upheightwasabout6.9m.

3)  BarangayRosalareawitha5.0mstormsurgeinundaFonanddamagetohousesbehindthe3.0mseawall.

(Masetal.,2015,NaturalHazardsandEarthSystemSCI.)

FieldSurveyaderTyphoonHaiyan

EarthScience

Governmentand

OrganizaFon

ComputerScience

•  AerodynamicScience•  TyphoonPressureField•  Non-symmetricWindfield•  Rainfall•  HeatTransformaFon•  Andotherphysicalfactors

•  HydrodynamicScience•  StormSurgePropagaFon•  InundaFonCalculaFon•  Tide-SurgeInteracFon•  Andotherphysicalfactors

DisasterMiFgaFonofStormSurgeIssue

TheIntroducFonofStormSurgeModel(COrnellMulF-gridCOupledofTsunamiModel–StormSurge)

21 1cos

sb a

w w

FPQ PQ Q gH HfP Ft R H R H R R

ϕϕ

ηϕ ψ ϕ ϕ ρ ψ ρ

⎛ ⎞ ∂∂ ∂ ∂ ∂⎛ ⎞+ + + + + = − +⎜ ⎟⎜ ⎟∂ ∂ ∂ ∂ ∂⎝ ⎠ ⎝ ⎠

( )1 cos 0cos

P Qt Rη

ϕϕ ψ ϕ⎧ ⎫∂ ∂ ∂

+ + ⋅ =⎨ ⎬∂ ∂ ∂⎩ ⎭

NonlinearShallowWaterEqua?onsontheSphericalCoordinate

•  Solve shallow water equaFons on bothsphericalandCartesiancoordinates

•  Explicit leapfrog FiniteDifferenceMethodforstableandhighspeedcalculaFon

•  Mul?/Nested-grid system for mulFpleshallowwaterwavescales

•  MovingBoundarySchemeforinundaFon•  High-speedefficiency

21 1cos cos cos

sb a

w w

FPP P PQ gH HfQ Ft R H R H R R

ψψ

ηϕ ψ ϕ ϕ ψ ρ ϕ ψ ρ

⎛ ⎞ ∂∂ ∂ ∂ ∂⎛ ⎞+ + + − + = − +⎜ ⎟ ⎜ ⎟∂ ∂ ∂ ∂ ∂⎝ ⎠⎝ ⎠

(1).ValidaFonofInundaFonCalculaFonComparewiththesolitarywaverun-upExperiments(Synolakis,1986and1987).

(Wu, 2012)

(from NOAA Official Website)

Simulated by COMCOT

soliton

(2).High-speedCalculaFonOurmodelcanfinish48hrsforecastin1hoursand

beusedfortheoperaFonalsystem.

TheresultshasbeenpublishedonOceanEngineering(SimonC.Linetal.,2015).

Dynamicresourcessharing.

ParallelCompu@ngonMul@Cores.

(3).CouplewiththeAtmosphericModelWRF(WeatherResearchandForecasFngModel)

•  WRF model is an atmospheric model adopted foroperaFonalforecastsbyCentralWeatherBureauinTaiwan.

•  TheWRFmodelwillstartitssimulaFonper6hoursinadayat00,06,12and18UTCFmerespecFvely.

Computa@onalDomain(CWB)

PressureField

WindField

The Fdes are provided as complex amplitudes ofearth-relaFvesea-surfaceelevaFonforeightprimary(M2, S2, N2, K2, K1, O1, P1, Q1), two long period(Mf,Mm) and 3 non-linear (M4, MS4, MN4)harmonicconsFtuents.

(4).CouplewithGlobalTideTPXOModel(TOPEX/POSEIDONGlobalTidalModel)

UserInterfaceofTPXO

TPXOcanprovide@dalinforma@on,likeM2. (Dushawetal.,1997)

(5).High-AccuracyTideValidaFon Thebiasissmallerthan0.1mandrootmeansquareissmallerthan0.6m.

ValidatedGaugeLoca@onsatTaiwan

TheobserveddataandharmonicdataareprovidedbyCWB(Taiwan).

CaseStudyof2015TyphoonSoudelor •  TyphoonSoudelorwasthestrongesttyphooninWesternNorthPacificregionsat2015.Accordingtothebriefanalysis,morethan4,000thousandsfamilieslosttheirelectricityduringtyphoonperiodandaccumulaFverainfallismorethan1,000mm.

•  BecauseofthedestrucFvedamages,economiclossandhumancasualFesatMarianaIslands,Taiwan,andChina,thename“Soudelor”wasremovedfromthelistoftyphoonnamesandwouldnotbeusedforever.

（資料來源：中央氣象局颱風資料庫） Thefloodinlow-lyingregionatIlanbecauseofTyphoonSoudelor.(中央社記者沈如峰宜蘭縣)

Large-ScaleStormSurgeSimula?ononSphericalCoordinateSystem2015.08.0200:00–2015.08.0906:00(UTC)

Pressure Field

Wind Field

The large computaFonal domain is adopted to simulate thecomplete storm surge propagaFon on spherical coordinatesystem.

Comparison with Observed Data

2015.08.0600:00-2015.08.0906:00(UTC)

TheobserveddataareprovidedbyourCWBinTaiwan.

CoastalInundaFonCalculaFon

Pingtung Pingtung

StormTides(StormSurge+Tide)

PureTide

OurCOMCOTstormsurgemodelcouldalsocalculaFontheinundaFonareawithnonlinearshallowwaterequaFonswhichconsidersnonlineareffects,boqomeffects,andCorioliseffectsinside.

TheCaseStudyof2013TyphoonHaiyan

(Copyright:TheUSJointTyphoonWarningCenter)

NestedComputaFonalDomain LAYER01(4km)

LAYER02(1km) •  Layer 01 can cover the

complete typhoon life cycle ofTyphoon Haiyan and the fullstormsurgepropagaFon.

•  Layer 02 can include theo ff s h o r e h y d r o d y n am i cprogresses of storm surge onthefinemeshdomain.

ThecomputaFonaldomainofLayer03andLayer04couldcoverthestormsurgepropagaFonsinoffshoreandnearshoreregions.

LAYER04(120m)

LeyteGulf

LAYER03(500m)

Near-shoreComputaFonalDomain

CouplewiththeAtmosphericWRFModel

•  Asymmetriceffect•  Topographiceffect

•  HydrodynamicPressure

PressureField

WindField

[email protected],AARModelingLaboratory(Sinica).

StormSurgesInducedbyTyphoonHaiyan2013.11.0600:00–2013.11.0900:00(UTC+0)

LargecomputaFonaldomaintocoverthecompletestormsurgepropagaFoninducedbyTyphoonHaiyanwithCorioliseffect.

SnapshotsofStormSurgesinthePhilippines

TheMaximumStormSurgesinthePhilippines

(Copyright:TheUSJointTyphoonWarningCenter)

MaximumSimulatedStormTidesatLeyteGulf

TaiwanStormSurgeOperaFonalSystemOurCOMCOTstormsurgemodelhasbeentheofficialoperaFonalsystemattheCentral

WeatherBureauthisyear.

INPUT

OUTPUT

Ø Meteorological Force: Parametric Typhoon Model or WRF Model.

Ø  Tidal Boundary Condition: TPXO 7.1 model.

INPUT OUTPUT COMCOT

StormSurgeModel

Start

Parametric Typhoon Model (3 hr/cycle) / WRF Model (6 hr/cycle)

Exit

Ø  48-HR Time Series for Storm Tide and Pure Tide at 34 specified locations.

Ø  2-dimensional model product.

1.  Every forecasting includes two 96-HR computations, and one for storm tide (storm surge + tide) run and another for pure tide run.

2.  There are 48-HR warm-up and 48-HR forecast at each storm tide run.

Schematic Diagram for Storm Tide Run and Pure Tide Run

48-HR Warm-up 48-HR Forecast Start

2015.09.0302:00(UTC+8)

2015.09.0502:00(UTC+8)

2015.09.0102:00(UTC+8)

2015.09.0502:00(UTC+8)

2015.09.0102:00(UTC+8)

StormTideRun(StormSurge+Tide)

PureTideRun 96-HR Forecast

2016Catogory-5Typhoon NepartakinTaiwan

ThetrackofTyphoonNepartak(CWB,Taiwan)

U.SNavalResearchLaboratory

Our COMCOT storm surge model has been to the officialoperaFonalsystematCWB,TaiwansinceTyphoonNepartak.

MeteorologicalFieldsofTyphoonNepartak

PressureField WindField

StormSurgesofTyphoonNepartak

Storm surges could be calculated for 2-daypredicFons and only spends 1.0 hr on a PC-levelcomputaFonalresources.

PeopleliveintheseareasneedtopayaqenFontothestormsurgeinundaFon.

SurgeandWaveinTaiwan(http://news.rthk.hk/rthk/ch/component/k2/1271353-20160708.htm)

Conclusion

•  OurCOMCOTstormsurgemodel:

ü  Adopt the large computa?onal domain to coverthe complete typhoon life cycle and full stormsurgepropagaFon.

ü  CouplewiththedynamicatmosphericWRFmodel.

ü  CouplewiththeglobalTPXO?dalmodel.

ü  Calculatehigh-resolu?onstormsurgeinunda?on.

ü  High-speedcalculaFonfortheopera?onalsystem.

ü  It has been the official operaFonal system at theCentralWeatherBureauthisyear MaximumSimulatedStormTidesatLeyteGulf,Philippines.

EarthScience

LocalGovernment

andOrganiza?on

ComputerScience

•  Hydrodynamicmodelling•  Aerodynamicmodelling•  Try to understand the physic

backgroundofstormsurge

•  LocalObserveddata•  TideGauges•  InundaFonArea•  DopplerData•  MeteorologicalData

•  Bathymetrydata

•  HighPerformanceCompuFng•  DataCommunicaFon•  StormSurgeOperaFonalSystem

IntegratedSystemforDisasterMi?ga?on

Beforethehappenedofstormsurge:1.  PreparetheoperaFonalstormsurgemodelandmakesurethatis

couldbeusedwhentyphoonsarecoming.2.  Web-portalserviceandforecastproducts.

Aferthedisasterofstormsurge:1.  IntegratethelocalobserveddataformodelvalidaFons.2.  Try to understand the physics of storm surge and associated

behaviorfromcasestudies.

Thanksforyourlistening.Welcomecommentsanddiscussion.Yu-LinTsai,NaFonalCentralUniversity(Taiwan)

Tsunami Science Laboratory

TideCalibraFon2015.08.0200:00–2015.08.0906:00(UTC)

ThegoodagreementbetweenCOMCOT-simulatedFdesandharmonicdatashowsthehighaccuracyofourmodel,andisreliabletodotosubsequentstudy.