Model-Based Systems & Qualitative Reasoning Group of the Technical University of Munich Struss Eco − 1 Case Studies in Model-based Systems for Ecological and Environmental Applications Peter Struss Technical University of Munich and OCC’M Software GmbH Thanks to Ulrich Heller
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Model-Based Systems & Qualitative ReasoningGroup of the Technical University of Munich
Struss Eco − 1
Case Studies inModel-based Systems
for Ecological and Environmental Applications
Case Studies inModel-based Systems
for Ecological and Environmental Applications
Peter StrussTechnical University of Munich
andOCC’M Software GmbH
Thanks to Ulrich Heller
Peter StrussTechnical University of Munich
andOCC’M Software GmbH
Thanks to Ulrich Heller
Peter Struss − 2Model-Based Systems & Qualitative ReasoningGroup of the Technical University of Munich OCC’M OCC’M OCC’M OCC’M Software
Optimism - „We will preserve local flora and fauna“
„In this area the Forest Department of the Pichavaram Mangroves has started management activities in 1995 in order to preserve the local flora and fauna.“
„In this area the Forest Department of the Pichavaram Mangroves has started management activities in 1995 in order to preserve the local flora and fauna.“
Struss Eco − 3Model-Based Systems & Qualitative ReasoningGroup of the Technical University of Munich OCC’M OCC’M OCC’M OCC’M Software
Meanwhile, Upstream ...Dams in Cauvery River
Reduction of Sedimentsin the River
Less Deposition inRiver Delta
Trough-shaped Basin
Stagnant Water
Increased Salinity
Degradation of Mangroves
Reduced Shelter Against Cyclones
Struss Eco − 4Model-Based Systems & Qualitative ReasoningGroup of the Technical University of Munich OCC’M OCC’M OCC’M OCC’M Software
The World - Simply Our “Environment”!
“Environmental Protection”Limit direct damagePreserve continued exploitation
“Environmental Protection”Limit direct damagePreserve continued exploitation
Question “Do you believe, Earth is approaching an ecologicalcatastrophy?“Answer: “The are certain hints we have to notice. But human skills for invention can solve the problems, if politicians pave the way.”
“Environment”
Struss Eco − 5Model-Based Systems & Qualitative ReasoningGroup of the Technical University of Munich OCC’M OCC’M OCC’M OCC’M Software
“Side-effects” ...
Dams inCauvery River Reduction of Sediments
in the River
Less Deposition inRiver Delta
Trough-shaped Basin
Stagnant Water
Increased Salinity
EvaporationDegradationof Mangroves
Cyclones
Struss Eco − 6Model-Based Systems & Qualitative ReasoningGroup of the Technical University of Munich OCC’M OCC’M OCC’M OCC’M Software
The World, Including Us
Understand!The complex interactions of natural phenomena and systemsHuman activities as additional influences in this network of interaction
Understand!The complex interactions of natural phenomena and systemsHuman activities as additional influences in this network of interaction
Dams inCauvery River Reduction of Sediment
in the River
Less Deposition inRiver Delta
Trough-shaped Basin
Stagnant Water
Increased Salinity
Degradationof Mangroves
Cyclones
Evaporation
• Develop• Check• Revise• Improve
Models !
• Develop• Check• Revise• Improve
Models !
Struss Eco − 7Model-Based Systems & Qualitative ReasoningGroup of the Technical University of Munich OCC’M OCC’M OCC’M OCC’M Software
Data Analysis,Simulation
(Numerical)Model
DB,GIS
Data
Data AcquisitionRemote Sensing
Analysis Selection Interpretation Modeling Problem Solving
Acting
Conceptual Model
The Role of Information Technology
E N V I R O N M E N T A L S Y S T E M
Struss Eco − 8Model-Based Systems & Qualitative ReasoningGroup of the Technical University of Munich OCC’M OCC’M OCC’M OCC’M Software
The Challenge for Knowledge Representation and Reasoning
E N V I R O N M E N T A L S Y S T E M
Conceptual Model
Analysis
Selection Interpretation Modeling Problem Solving
Data Processing
Knowledge Based Decision Support System
Acting
Struss Eco − 9Model-Based Systems & Qualitative ReasoningGroup of the Technical University of Munich OCC’M OCC’M OCC’M OCC’M Software
Mangrove Project - Requirements (1)
Supporting Local Decision Makers(Forest dept., local self-administration,
women’s organizationsUnderstanding, explanationsAnalysis, interpretation of observationsProposal and assessment of actions
Supporting Local Decision Makers(Forest dept., local self-administration,
women’s organizationsUnderstanding, explanationsAnalysis, interpretation of observationsProposal and assessment of actions
Non-Expert
Expert
Struss Eco − 10Model-Based Systems & Qualitative ReasoningGroup of the Technical University of Munich OCC’M OCC’M OCC’M OCC’M Software
Mangrove Project - Requirements (2)
Supporting ResearchersDeveloping modelsTransfer of resultsTeaching
Supporting ResearchersDeveloping modelsTransfer of resultsTeaching
Expert
Struss Eco − 11Model-Based Systems & Qualitative ReasoningGroup of the Technical University of Munich OCC’M OCC’M OCC’M OCC’M Software
Mangrove Project - Requirements (3)
Domain CharacteristicsPartial, qualitative knowledgePartial, qualitative information
Domain CharacteristicsPartial, qualitative knowledgePartial, qualitative information
Deposit ofSediment
NaCl
Effects of Salintyon Mangroves
EvaporationRate
D Amount of Degradation
Struss Eco − 12Model-Based Systems & Qualitative ReasoningGroup of the Technical University of Munich OCC’M OCC’M OCC’M OCC’M Software
Requirements on Modeling
• Developing modelsTransfer of resultsTeachingUnderstanding, explanationsAnalysis, interpretation of observationsProposal and assess-ment of actionsPartial, qualitative knowledgePartial, qualitative information
• Developing modelsTransfer of resultsTeachingUnderstanding, explanationsAnalysis, interpretation of observationsProposal and assess-ment of actionsPartial, qualitative knowledgePartial, qualitative information
Compositional ModelsLibrary of independent, combinable model fragments
Compositional ModelsLibrary of independent, combinable model fragments
Qualitative ModelsEssential distinctions only
Qualitative ModelsEssential distinctions only
Struss Eco − 13Model-Based Systems & Qualitative ReasoningGroup of the Technical University of Munich OCC’M OCC’M OCC’M OCC’M Software
Modeling Support
Analysis
Evaporation
NaCl
Salination
...
Conceptual
Qualitative
Compositional
Formal
NaCl
E N V I R O N M E N T A L S Y S T E M
Struss Eco − 14Model-Based Systems & Qualitative ReasoningGroup of the Technical University of Munich OCC’M OCC’M OCC’M OCC’M Software
Process-Oriented Modeling
Process: Model FragmentCondition
Structure (objects, object relations)Quantities
BehaviorConstraints (relation)Partial influences
Process: Model FragmentCondition
Structure (objects, object relations)Quantities
BehaviorConstraints (relation)Partial influences
NaCl
Peter Struss − 15Model-Based Systems & Qualitative ReasoningGroup of the Technical University of Munich OCC’M OCC’M OCC’M OCC’M Software
The Lomba Reservoir (Porto Alegre)
Peter Struss − 16Model-Based Systems & Qualitative ReasoningGroup of the Technical University of Munich OCC’M OCC’M OCC’M OCC’M Software
Algal Bloom
Struss Eco − 17Model-Based Systems & Qualitative ReasoningGroup of the Technical University of Munich OCC’M OCC’M OCC’M OCC’M Software
An Example from the Water Treatment Domain
The ProblemHigh iron concentrations in drinking water produce bad taste (and odour)A potential source is the "re-dissolving" of iron from the sediment under acidic conditions
The ProblemHigh iron concentrations in drinking water produce bad taste (and odour)A potential source is the "re-dissolving" of iron from the sediment under acidic conditions
Sediment
Hypolimnion
Epilimnion
TankPump Drinking Water
Observation:"metallic taste"
Struss Eco − 18Model-Based Systems & Qualitative ReasoningGroup of the Technical University of Munich OCC’M OCC’M OCC’M OCC’M Software
An Example from the Water Treatment Domain (continued)
Processes OccurringThe "metallic taste" is the human perception of iron in the waterThis has been transported (by pumping or ascending in the pond)Ultimately, is has been dissolved from the sediment- and for this to happen, acidic conditions are a precondition
Processes OccurringThe "metallic taste" is the human perception of iron in the waterThis has been transported (by pumping or ascending in the pond)Ultimately, is has been dissolved from the sediment- and for this to happen, acidic conditions are a precondition
Sediment
Hypolimnion
Epilimnion
TankPump Drinking Water
Observation:"metallic taste"
perception
IronIrontransport
Iron
ascending
redissolving
Iron
pH = -
Sachenbacher et al. − 19Model-Based Systems & Qualitative ReasoningGroup of the Technical University of Munich OCC’M OCC’M OCC’M OCC’M Software
Key Ideas: Generic Diagnosis Algorithm
Diagnosis:Find an assignment of a mode (Ok, Fault1, ...) to each component Cisuch that SD ∪ OBS ∪ {modei(Ci) | Ci ∈ COMPS} ⊥
Diagnosis:Find an assignment of a mode (Ok, Fault1, ...) to each component Cisuch that SD ∪ OBS ∪ {modei(Ci) | Ci ∈ COMPS} ⊥
Struss Eco − 35Model-Based Systems & Qualitative ReasoningGroup of the Technical University of Munich OCC’M OCC’M OCC’M OCC’M Software
Resolving Influences
infl1x1
infl2
x2
infl3x3
ydydt = ∑ infli
CLOSED WORLDASSUMPTIONy
Struss Eco − 36Model-Based Systems & Qualitative ReasoningGroup of the Technical University of Munich OCC’M OCC’M OCC’M OCC’M Software
Tasks: Situation Assessment
In area x, trees of specifier y shed their leaves at an unusual rate -what’s going on?
In area x, trees of specifier y shed their leaves at an unusual rate -what’s going on?
Determinerelevant constituents and their relationships and parameterstheir current state: values of variablesthat collectively account for the observation
Determinerelevant constituents and their relationships and parameterstheir current state: values of variablesthat collectively account for the observation
OBS → SYSTEM SITUATION
Struss Eco − 37Model-Based Systems & Qualitative ReasoningGroup of the Technical University of Munich OCC’M OCC’M OCC’M OCC’M Software
We May Be Wrong - Model Revision
Environmental System
StructureQuantities
StructureQuantities
SystemModel
SystemModel
Prediction
Observation
Revision
STRUCTURE ∪ QUANTITIES ∪ CWA
MODEL ∪ OBS
MODEL
⊥
?
Struss Eco − 38Model-Based Systems & Qualitative ReasoningGroup of the Technical University of Munich OCC’M OCC’M OCC’M OCC’M Software
Searching for Revisions
Assumptions to be revised:
obji, obj-relj, vark = vall, CWAn
Assumptions to be revised:
obji, obj-relj, vark = vall, CWAn
Modelrev
obj-type, var-type
Domain Theory
(Library)
beh-const1 ...beh-const2
obj1 obj2 obj-rel3 obj4
Conditions
Struss Eco − 39Model-Based Systems & Qualitative ReasoningGroup of the Technical University of Munich OCC’M OCC’M OCC’M OCC’M Software
Specification of Revisables
SD = SDrev ∪∪∪∪ SDfixSD = SDrev ∪∪∪∪ SDfix
• We know (based on observations) something aboutthe domain, the system, the state
• We assume some things aboutthe system (objects and relations), the state
• We know (based on observations) something aboutthe domain, the system, the state
• We assume some things aboutthe system (objects and relations), the state
E. g. for situation assessment:E. g. for situation assessment:
OBS ⊂ QUANTfix ⊂ SDfix
SDrev = STRUCTrev ∪ QUANTrev
OBS ⊂ QUANTfix ⊂ SDfix
SDrev = STRUCTrev ∪ QUANTrev
Struss Eco − 40Model-Based Systems & Qualitative ReasoningGroup of the Technical University of Munich OCC’M OCC’M OCC’M OCC’M Software
Situation Assessment: Formalization
What Does not Fit the Observations?MODEL0 ∪ OBS ⊥→MODEL1 ∪ OBS ⊥or →MODEL1 OBS
What Does not Fit the Observations?MODEL0 ∪ OBS ⊥→MODEL1 ∪ OBS ⊥or →MODEL1 OBS
System IdentificationMODELrev= STRUCTURErev ∪ PAR-SPECrev ∪ CWA
State IdentificationMODELrev= VAR-SPECrev
Struss Eco − 41Model-Based Systems & Qualitative ReasoningGroup of the Technical University of Munich OCC’M OCC’M OCC’M OCC’M Software
Diagnosis: Formalization
What Causes Violation of Goals?MODEL1 ∪ GOALS ⊥→MODEL2 ∪ GOALS ⊥or →MODEL2 GOALS
What Causes Violation of Goals?MODEL1 ∪ GOALS ⊥→MODEL2 ∪ GOALS ⊥or →MODEL2 GOALS
Revisable: What Can Be Influenced?MODELrev= STRUCTURErev ∪ VAR-SPECrev ∪ CWA
Revisable: What Can Be Influenced?MODELrev= STRUCTURErev ∪ VAR-SPECrev ∪ CWA
Struss Eco − 42Model-Based Systems & Qualitative ReasoningGroup of the Technical University of Munich OCC’M OCC’M OCC’M OCC’M Software
Tasks: Therapy Generation
Having identified possible causes of the mangrove degradation -what can be done?
Having identified possible causes of the mangrove degradation -what can be done?
Determineresponsible factors that can be influencedactions that create appropriate influences
Determineresponsible factors that can be influencedactions that create appropriate influences
GOALS →REMEDIATEACTIONS
Struss Eco − 43Model-Based Systems & Qualitative ReasoningGroup of the Technical University of Munich OCC’M OCC’M OCC’M OCC’M Software