CAS-XIV (Cape Town, 16-24 February 2006) Develop improved and cost-effective forecasting techniques with emphasis on high-impact weather and promote their.

CAS-XIV (Cape Town, 16-24 February 2006)

• Develop improved and cost-effective forecasting techniques with emphasis on high-impact weather and promote their application among Members.

• Enable governments, societies and economic sectors to realize fully the benefit of weather-related information in critical decision-making.

• Demonstrate improvements in the prediction of high-impact weather through the exploitation of advances in scientific understanding, new observing systems, observational network design, data assimilation and modeling techniques, and information systems.

• Demonstrate the benefits of improved global, mesoscale, and nowcasting forecast systems to all societies.

Commission for Atmospheric

Sciences

JSSC/EPAC(Environmental

Pollution Atmospheric Chemistry)

JSC/WWRP(Word Weather

Research Program)

CAS ORGANIZATIONAL COMPONENTS: 2006-2010

WG Numerical Experimentation

(WCRP)

Societal and

EconomicApplications

Verification

Nowcasting

TropicalMeteorology

Research

MesoscaleWeather

ForecastingResearch

SynopticPredictabilities

(THORPEX)

WorldWeatherResearch

Programme

WORLD WEATHER RESEARCH PROGRAMME

Develops improved and cost effective weather forecasting techniques, with emphasis on high impact weather and promotes

their application among Member States.

SYNOPTIC PREDICTABILITIES (THORPEX)

A 10-year international research and development programme to accelerate improvements in the accuracy of one-day to two-week

high impact weather forecasts for the benefit of society, the economy and the environment.

MESOSCALE WEATHER FORECASTING RESEARCH

Promotes, organizes and/or endorses end-to-end weather research and development projects (RDPs) including

understanding of weather processes, improving forecasting techniques and the utility of forecast information with an emphasis

on high-impact weather.

TROPICAL METEOROLOGY RESEARCH

Promotes, Identifies and supports research initiatives relevant to the high-impact weather forecast requirements of NMHSs in

tropical and monsoon regions, and thus contribute to social and economic benefits by preventing or mitigating disasters via

imporved forecasts of tropical cyclones and anomalous monsoon rainfall.

NOWCASTING

Promotes and aids the implementation of nowcasting in the WWRP framework and within NMSs and among their end-users, including the potential use of numerical modelling and

assimilation of very high resolution data.

VERIFICATION

Facilitates the development and application of improved diagnostic verification methods to assess and enable

improvement of the quality of weather forecasts, including forecasts from numerical weather and climate models.

SOCIETAL AND ECONOMIC APPLICATIONS

Advances the science of the social and economic application of weather-related information and services and reviews and assists

in the development and promotion of societal and economic-related demonstration projects.

Contact: [email protected]

TROPICAL METEOROLOGY RESEARCH

Promotes, Identifies and supports research initiatives relevant to the high-impact weather

forecast requirements of NMHSs in tropical and monsoon regions, and thus contribute to social and

economic benefits by preventing or mitigating disasters via imporved forecasts of tropical cyclones and anomalous monsoon rainfall.

Drafting of Strategic Plan for World Weather Research

Program (WWRP):

Tropical Meteorology Research

World Meteorological OrganizationCAS Working Group on Tropical Meteorological ResearchGuangzhou, China 22-24 March 2007

WGTMR – before(6 components and 6 projects)

1. Tropical Cyclones:– Rapporteur– Project TC1– Project TC1– Project TC3

2. Monsoons:– Rapporteur– IPEAM/Project M1– Project M2– Project M3– Monsoon Activity Centers

3. Tropical Limited Area NWP4. Interaction between tropical and midlatitude

weather systems5. Tropical drought and rain producing systems6. Climate change aspects of tropical weather

Past Activities - TC • Projects

– Tropical Cyclone Landfall Processes– Tropical Cyclone Disaster Reduction (Training)– Extra-Tropical Transition (Initiation of THORPEX-PARC)

• International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones– IWTC-1 1985, Bangkok, Thailand– IWTC-2 1989, Manila, Philippines– IWTC-3 1993, Huatulco, Mexico – IWTC-4 1998, Haikou, China– IWTC-5 2002, Carins, Australia– IWTC-6 2006, San Jose, Costa Rica

• Publications – Global Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting (1993)– Global Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones. (1995-1997 )

Past Activities - Monsoon• Projects

– M2 Project (Long-Term Asian and African Monsoon)– IPEAM/including M1 Project (East Asian Monsoon Research)– M3 Project (American Monsoon)

• Monsoon Activity Centers– Delhi– Kuala Lumpur– Nairobi

• International Workshop on Monsoons– IWM-1 1995, Bali Indonesia– IWM-2 2000, Delhi India– IWM-3 2004, Hangzhou China– WMONEX 25+ 2006, Kuala Lumpur Malaysia

• Monsoon Training Workshops• Publications

– Global Monsoon Systems: Research and Forecast (2005)– World Scientific Series on East Asian Meteorology

WGTMR – Proposed (2 components)

1. Tropical Cyclone Panel:– Expert Team on Observation, Processes and

Prediction– Expert Team on Landfall Processes– Expert Team on Climate Impacts on TCs– Limited Area NWP

2. Monsoon Panel:– Expert Team on Severe Monsoon Weather– Expert Team on Climate Impacts on Monsoon

Weather– Monsoon Activity Centers

Monsoon Panel Strategy

• Climate Scales: Global change, Decadal, Interannual, Seasonal, down to intraseasonal– Cooperate with and support WCRP monsoon activities– Cooperate with regional and international programs

(e.g., APEC Climate Center)– Research on Impacts on local weather

• Weather Scales: Convection, Meso-, Synoptic, up to Intraseasonal– Regional and Local phenomena, effects of terrain– Top priority: Torrential rainfall, flooding– Joint efforts with TMRP/TC component

Activities

• Scientific and Training Workshops– Review state of the art, current issues and future directions– Facilitate researchers - forecasters interactions – Relating research results to forecasters on an ongoing basis– Update WMO Report on Monsoon for Member NMHSs.

• WMO Monsoon Activity Centres– New Delhi (IMD: South Asia)– Kuala Lumpur (MMS: Southeast Asia)– Beijing (CMA, East Asia)

• Encourage, endorse and support monsoon research that is relevant to forecast of high-impart weather through regional and international cooperation

Research Projects

• Encourage, endorse and support weather scale monsoon research through regional and international cooperation– Examples

• STORM (Severe Thunderstorms – Observations & Regional Modeling )

• SCHeREX Southern China Heavy Rainfall Experiment (MAPHRISC)

• SoWMEX Southwest Monsoon Experiment (CWB/NTU)• TiMREX Terrain-induced Monsoon Rainfall Experiment (US

NCAR and universities)• East China Sea Precipatation System (Pukyong and Nagoya U)

upstream conditions, surface fluxes, stability → blocking, Inversion, convection

Taiwan Island

*

**

*Ship Sounding

Pre-Mei-Yu front

DROPSONDE MISSIONS?

sharp SST gradient → baroclinic boundary layer enhances LLJ?

Island Soundings

SCHeREX

SCHeREX

SoWMEX

SoWMEX

/TiMREXTiMREX

Prof. Ben Jou Taiwan U.Dr. Wen Chau Lee, NCAR

Prof. Renhe Zhang, CMA

Air-Sea Interaction Based on Satellite DataAir-Sea Interaction Based on Satellite Data

A study of precipitation-inducing atmospheric motions through the assimilation of a synoptic dataA study of precipitation-inducing atmospheric motions through the assimilation of a synoptic data

Development of meteorological prediction model using MIS (Meteorological Information System)

Development of meteorological prediction model using MIS (Meteorological Information System)

3

4

5

A study on the kinematic characteristics of precipitation system by dual Doppler radar analysisA study on the kinematic characteristics of precipitation system by dual Doppler radar analysis

2

Studies of precipitation system around northern part on the East China seaStudies of precipitation system around northern part on the East China sea

1

Global Research Laboratory ProgramProf. Dong-In Lee, Pukyong N. U.

Typhoon

（ COBRA, NICT ）

May, June, September 2007-2009

Doppler radar

Radiosonde

East China Sea Rainfall SystemsProf. Hiroshi Uyed, Nagoya U.

Workshops• IWM-4:

– Time: Late 2008– Location: Possibly Malaysia or China– Possible joint meeting with CLIVAR AAMP– Update WMO TD No. 1266, balance between climate

and severe weather topics

• Possible:– 8th training workshop on monsoon (late 2008)– Workshop on QPE/QPF of TC and monsoon (2009)