Carolina’s Climate Report Card: Understanding Climate Trends and Variability Hope Mizzell, Ph.D. SC State Climatology Office
Carolina’s Climate Report Card:
Understanding Climate Trends and Variability
Hope Mizzell, Ph.D.
SC State Climatology Office
Topics to be Discussed:
- NOAA’s US Historical Climate Network, 1901-2010 - Longest period of record, least amount of missing data and station moves -Least squares regression for trend - NOAA’s Cooperative Observation Network, 1900-2011 -Threshold parameters (i.e temp. <=32 F)
- NOAA’s Storm Prediction Ct.’s Severe Wx. Database, 1950-2009 -NC Tornado Statistics Web Page -NOAA’s National Hurricane Center Database, 1854-2013 -NC Hurricane Statistics Web Page
Seasonal Temperature and Precipitation Trends
Threshold Parameters and Moving Averages
Tornado Climatology
Hurricane Landfalls
Is the Carolinas Getting Warmer or Colder?
Southeast Annual Maximum Temperature 1901-2010
*NOAA’s US Historical Climate Network
Southeast Annual Minimum Temperature 1901-2010
*NOAA’s US Historical Climate Network
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Tem
pe
ratu
re (
F)SC Annual Temperature Trend: 1895-2010
10 yr moving average Linear trend
NC Annual Temperature Trend: 1895-2007
Temperature Trends: NC vs Global
Winter Minimum Temperature 1901-2010
Winter Maximum Temperature 1901-2010
Number of Days Min Temperature ≤ 32°F
Spring Maximum Temperature
1901-2010 Spring Minimum Temperature
1901-2010
Summer Maximum Temperature 1901-2010
Summer Minimum Temperature 1901-2010
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
41895
1899
1903
1907
1911
1915
1919
1923
1927
1931
1935
1939
1943
1947
1951
1955
1959
1963
1967
1971
1975
1979
1983
1987
1991
1995
1999
2003
2007
2011
Te
mp
era
ture
De
pa
rtu
re fro
m N
orm
al (
F)
SC's Summer Average Temperature Departure from Normal
1895-2011
10 yr moving average Linear trend
1930-2010
1962-2010
Fall Maximum Temperature 1901-2010
Fall Minimum Temperature 1901-2010
Is it Wetter or Drier?
Southeast Average Annual Precipitation Trends 1901-2010
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35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
751895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Pre
cip
itat
ion
(in
che
s)SC Annual Precipitation Trend: 1895-2010
Wettest
Driest
10 yr moving average Linear trend
NC Annual Precipitation Trend: 1895-2007
Summer Precipitation 1901-2010
Spring Precipitation 1901-2010
Winter Precipitation 1901-2010
Fall Precipitation 1901-2010
http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/severeweathertornado
Doppler Radar
http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/severeweathertornado
http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/climate/hurricanes/statistics.php
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1851
1857
1863
1869
1875
1881
1887
1893
1899
1905
1911
1917
1923
1929
1935
1941
1947
1953
1959
1965
1971
1977
1983
1989
1995
2001
2007
Number of US Hurricane Landfalls* by Year
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/All_U.S._Hurricanes.html
Hurricane Landfall Statistics (1851 - 2013)
30
Impact of Hurricanes on SC Based on Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
Hazel
Cindy
Charley
Gaston
Gracie
Hugo
Total Hurricanes Affecting NC and SC by Decade Within 50 Miles (1851 - 2013)
NC SC
Thank you
Hope Mizzell, Ph.D. SC State Climatologist
SC Department of Natural Resources
http://www.dnr.sc.gov/climate/sco/
http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/