Carly Jerla Bureau of Reclamation Michael Hayes National Drought Mitigation Center University of Nebraska-Lincoln Risk Assessment Scoping Workshop for.

Carly JerlaBureau of Reclamation

Michael HayesNational Drought Mitigation Center

University of Nebraska-Lincoln

Risk AssessmentScoping Workshop for the Upper Colorado River Basin

NIDIS Pilot

Components of Successful Drought Mitigation Plans

Monitoring, early warning, and predictionFoundation of a drought mitigation plan

Indices/indicators linked to impacts and triggers

Risk and impact assessmentWho and what is at risk and why?

Mitigation and responsePrograms and actions to reduce future drought impacts

Programs and actions during drought events

Most drought plans contain only the monitoring and response components.

Risk Assessment Purpose

To identify those sectors, population groups, or regions most at risk from drought, most probable impacts, and mitigation actions that will reduce impacts to future events.

Western Drought CoordinationCouncil

How to ReduceDroughtRisk Preparedness and Mitigation

Working Group

March 1998

Principal Authors:

Cody Knutson,National Drought Mitigation Center

Mike Hayes,National Drought Mitigation Center

Tom Phillips,U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

http://drought.unl.edu/handbook/risk.pdf

Components of Drought Risk Assessment

(social factors)(natural event)

Where does the water come from?

Who uses the water?

Hazard Assessment(Understanding Drought Characteristics)

Review of all available climate resourcesHistorical analyses: frequency, intensity, duration, spatial extentTemporal trends

Review available natural resourcesStreamflow, reservoirs, stock tanks, groundwater, etc…

Water use characteristics

Vulnerability Assessment

Impact AssessmentSocial

Environmental

Economic

Causal Assessment

Temporal Trends

Impact Assessment Subcommittees

ColoradoMunicipal Water

Wildfire Protection

Agricultural Industry

Tourism

Wildlife

Economic Impacts

Energy Loss

Health

Impact Assessment Subcommittees

NebraskaAgriculture, Natural Resources, and Wildlife Municipal Water Supply, Health, and Energy

New MexicoAgricultureDrinking Water, Health, and EnergyWildlife and WildfireTourism and Economic Impact

Impact Assessment Subcommittees

Hopi NationRange and Livestock

Agriculture

Village Water Supplies

Environmental Health

ChallengesRisk: not all impacts are equal

Vulnerability to Agricultural Drought: State of Nebraska

LEGEND

Water, Urban, Forest, Wetland

Low

Low-to-Moderate

Moderate

High

vulnerability

Albers Equal Area Projection, NAD 27Spatial Resolution: 200 m

Risk and Impact Lessons

StakeholdersReduces conflicts between water users

Promotes support

Helps identify areas, people, sectors at risk

Vulnerability Dynamic (shifts with time)Look Back and Look Ahead

Identify particular baselinesTriggers for decision-making