Carlo Azzarri, Melanie Bacou, Ali Bittinger, Zhe Guo, Dave Hodson, Jawoo Koo, An Notenbaert, Ria Tenorio, Pierre Sibiry Traore, Stanley Wood Sustainable intensification of crop-livestock systems to improve food security and farm income diversification in the Ethiopian highlands ILRI-Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 30 Jan - 2 Feb2012 Sustainable Intensification of Farming Systems: M&E Goals, Implementation Strategy, and Data & Analysis Platform
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Carlo Azzarri, Melanie Bacou, Ali Bittinger, Zhe Guo, Dave Hodson, Jawoo Koo, An Notenbaert, Ria Tenorio, Pierre Sibiry Traore, Stanley Wood
Sustainable intensification of crop-livestock systems to improve food security and farm income diversification in the Ethiopian highlands ILRI-Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 30 Jan - 2 Feb2012. Sustainable Intensification of Farming Systems: M&E Goals, Implementation Strategy, - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Carlo Azzarri, Melanie Bacou, Ali Bittinger, Zhe Guo, Dave Hodson, Jawoo Koo, An Notenbaert,
Ria Tenorio, Pierre Sibiry Traore, Stanley Wood
Sustainable intensification of crop-livestock systems to improve food security and farm income diversification in the Ethiopian highlands
ILRI-Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 30 Jan - 2 Feb2012
Sustainable Intensification of Farming Systems:M&E Goals, Implementation Strategy,
and Data & Analysis Platform
M&E Guiding Principles• FtF Compliance: Conform to the FtF (& GoE?) core indicators• Multi-scale, Multi-site reporting: Meet broad stakeholder needs and support
multi-scale/multi-site M&E through;– Action-site, sub-system and system reporting– Country reports: Breakout of site reports to serve national stakeholder needs– Regional Site-reports: for each of the three regional SI program sites– SSA-reports: cross-system reporting and SI-wide “roll-up” of indicators across: Sudano-
Sahelian zone, Ethiopian Highlands, Eastern and Southern Africa
• Monitoring & projection: Provide monitoring reports and short-term projections (targets) of key M&E indicators for intervention sites in project “Zone of Influence”, updated annually
• Scaling indicators up and out (spatial & temporal): Using a range of biophysical, bio-economic , market and welfare models to undertake ex ante analysis of output, outcome, and impact indicators. (Keywords: extrapolation, aggregation, trade-offs, spillover potential, sustainability, welfare and environmental goals)
• Open-access data and analysis platform: Maintain a transparent, open-access M&E data management and analysis platform to serve the needs of SI stakeholders
FtF USAID “Required” IndicatorsResults
Framework Title Indicator Level Freq. Type DisaggregationSustainably Reduce Global Poverty and Hunger
1 Prevalence of underweight children (<5years)
Nat., PZoI
Bienn. DHS (5yrs) IM Sex: M, F
2 Prevalence of poverty Nat., PZoI Bienn. IM FNM/MNF/M&F
Inclusive Agricutural Sector Growth
3 Per capita expenditure (income proxy)
Nat.,PZoI Bienn. OC FNM/MNF/M&F
4 Percentage change in agricultural GDP Nat. Ann. IM -
5 Women's empowerment in agricultural index PZoI Bienn. IM TBD
Improved Nutritional Status, (especially of women and children)
6 Prevalence of stunted children (<5 yrs)
Nat., PZoI
Bienn. DHS (5yrs) IM Sex: M, F
7 Prevalence of wasted children (<5 yrs)
Nat., PZoI
Bienn. DHS (5yrs) IM Sex: M, F
8 Prevalence of underweight women
Nat. , PZoI
Bienn. DHS (5yrs) IM -
FtF USAID “Required if Applicable” IndicatorsResults
Framework Title Indicator Level Freq. Type DisaggregationIncreased Employment in Targeted Value Chains
1 # jobs attributed to FTF support
PZoI, Targeted beneficiaries
Ann. OC 1. Sex: Male, Female2. New vs. Continuing3. Urban vs. Rural
Improved Agricultural Productivity(adequate for SI productivity?)
2 Gross margin per unit land, kg., or animal (selected product varies by country)
Intensification of Wheat Production (HH Scale Characterization)
Intensification Metrics: SI index
• Normalized index with weights based on the first principal component, the linear combination capturing the greatest variation among the set of variables:
-input index* (imp. seed, org & inorg fert, pesticide, extension…)-land size-head’s education-[crop] farm land-[crop] production share-[crop] farm land share-[crop] yield
RAIN
FED
WHE
AT1.
Agr
o-cl
imati
c su
itabi
lity
RecommendedFertilizer Rate
No Fertilizer
2.Yi
eld
resp
onse
s to
ferti
lizer
High : 8000
Low : 1
Mean Yield (kg/ha)
4000
3.M
odel
ing
of fa
rm-g
ate
pric
es
Transport cost: Port toFarm-gate
Transport cost: Capital to Farm-gate
Wheat farming enterprise data
050
100150200250300350400450
Whe
at p
rice
(US$
/ton
)
Nominal world wheat price Real world wheat price
International wheat and fertilizer prices
4.Pr
ofita
bilit
y an
alys
is
Profitability Sensitivity AnalysisTool (Excel)
Variety: Digelu Variety: Veery
Keny
a
Et
hiop
ia
Yield Yield
No fert.
100% Rec. Fert.
No fert.
100% Rec. Fert.
Net Economic Return and Potential Production
Country Net economic return (US $/ Ha) Incremental net economic return (% )
Source: CIMMYT – HarvestChoice “Wheat Potential for Africa “ (2011)
Some Key M&E Activities
• Stratification of farming systems: Relies on the fusion of spatially-explicit agricultural production, environmental, and farm/household data, and hypotheses on SI evolution and impact pathways (linked to site selection & sampling design)
• Map planned interventions into indicators: • Design & Conduct of Surveys: To provide periodic, robust estimates of
agreed indicators for target populations in PZoI (and satisfy other analytical data needs)
• Maintaining a Technology/Intervention Inventory: A characterized inventory of the farming system components whose integration, adoption and impact is being evaluated. Includes characterization of spillover potential.
• Establishing a Linked System of Models: To support M&E reporting cycle (up/out-scaling and projections with and w/o SI interventions), of output, outcome and impact indicators
• Attribution assessment: Beyond monitoring and modeling change in indicators is the need (with additional information/assumptions) to attribute changes to the extent required by donors (ex post studies?)
M&E Implementation Strategy (to date)
• Establish Core FtF Monitoring Obligations: Primarily with USAID Washington (e.g., agree required core indicators and reporting timelines)
• Recruit M&E Coordinator: IFPRI to recruit SI M&E Coordinator (Senior International Research position) with support staff in addition to DC-based team.
• Establish M&E Implementation Community: To contribute to and finalize project M&E design, as well as guide, participate in and review M&E work plans and deliverables (composition, e.g., M&E specialist/liaison from involved CG centers, donor and national and regional partners).
• M&E Open-Access, Web-Based Platform: To host and make accessible SI M&E plans, documents, and annual reports, as well as background publications, underlying datasets and analytical tools. Promote and apply standards for farming system, technology and impact characterization.
• Annual M&E Technical Meeting: Likely aligned with proposed Project-wide Annual meeting (Need for cross-site planning and review meetings?)
3-9 Months
9-12 Months
Year 1 Timeline
✔1-3
Months
Site Selection/Characterization
ComponentInventory
Activity -> Indicator List
Survey Design
Baseline Survey
Component DB
Potential Impact Evaluation: Scaling Out & Projection
• Site/Station Full Name: ______________________• Institution: ________________________________• Technologies/Practices tested/demonstrated
• Contact details
Issues/Questions• Making an appropriate split of M&E resources between the M & the E? (e.g.,
strong interest in early assessments of outcomes and impact over time)• Process of selecting components? (responds to supply or demand?)• Likely cost of meeting donor’s minimum indicator needs?• Internal project management versus strategic M&E needs?• Establishing shared roles in data and tool development and application
between implementation partners and M&E team (involve scientists in M&E team)?– e.g. obtaining appropriate cross-fertilization between M&E team and other teams in
site selection, field data collection, annual reporting/analysis? Any feeling this should be “arms-length”?
• What interest in being part of the M&E community (especially from national partners)?