Carl Telford - Domotics Tech and Fragile People. International trends and development scenarios.

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www.strategicbusinessinsights.com

Domotics Tech and Fragile PeopleInternational trends and development scenarios

© 2013 by Strategic Business Insights. All rights reserved.© 2013 by Strategic Business Insights. All rights reserved.

July 2013

Carl Telford, PhDProgram Manager, Scan

[email protected]

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Strategic Business Insights (SBI): Who we are and what we do

A spin-off from SRI International, SBI is headquartered in the heart of Silicon Valley.

Scanning: SBI’s Scan service helps users understand change in business, technology, and society.Technology analysis: SBI’s Explorer service provides a continuous look at 32 important technologies.Consulting: We help clients at the ‘fuzzy front end.’ With Shell, we developed scenario planning in the 1970s. We create roadmaps…

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We created a domotics roadmap with AREA

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Next-generation telecare• Health/wellness/emergency • Telecare: key part of healthcare• Private, bespoke systems• Systems on smartphones/tablets

Service robotics• Robot companions• Exoskeletons• Domestic task assistance

Home automation platforms• Security• Lighting and heating• Food preparation

We created a domotics roadmap with AREA

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Robert Thomas

Physics

ScenarioPlanning

Lucy Young

Egyptology

Bioscience Technologies

Peter Batty

Physics

Consumer Electronics

Carl Telford

Materials Eng.

“Scanning”

Kyle Whitman

English & Law

Future Homes & Connectivity

Rob Edmonds

Cognitive Sci.

Collaboration Tools & Learning

Gareth Lamb

Chemistry

Industrial Chemicals/Mats

Nanomaterials

Advanced Materials

SBI Function

Background

The SBI team: “What could happen in 10 to 15 years…?”

Alastair Cunningham

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External Environment:Opportunities and Threats

SBI research (Scan, Explorer, technology roadmaps)

Approximately 15 Clusters

5 Themes[“Development Scenarios”]

Presentation

Business Publications Scientific Journals Trade PublicationsPersonal Observations Consulting Work Web 2.0 MediaMagazines Interviews ConferencesNewspapers

Clustering

Refinement

Chaotic Unstructured

Focused Structured

Application of SBI’s Scan™ process

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The team did some data collection…We collected relevant data from Scan, Explorer, the

domotics roadmap, projects, personal interest…

Focus on technology and industry developments

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… and clustering

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Available in our

App Store

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“Homes become App platforms”Premise: Enabling technologies such as tablets,

touchscreens, multimedia, sensors, and automation become pervasive, forming a platform for “Domotic Apps.”

Signposts• Apple's increasing role in home

automation

• Microsoft buys id8 Group and working to turn surfaces into interactive displays

• Amateur Siri system ‘controls everything but the kitchen sink’

• Wonderwall: High-tech home-assisted living for the elderly

Photo: c/o Gizmag

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“Homes become App platforms”Premise: Enabling technologies such as tablets,

touchscreens, multimedia, sensors, and automation become pervasive, forming a platform for “Domotic Apps.”

Implications• Lessons from other sectors (e.g. automotive and TV)

suggest integrating cell phones as processors and controllers rather than replicating their functionality elsewhere is a successful approach.

• Home automation hardware could become standard; customization could occur via Apps

• Telecare? One could be able to download a fragile-person specific App (“Keep an Eye on Mum v3.1”) from an online store.

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I’ll find the keys…

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“Home as a second brain”Premise: Within 10-15 years, home automation and related technologies make it impossible to forget where your keys

are, to take pills, or what a recipe is…

Signposts• Alzheimer’s: a huge global problem

• New technologies can augment fragile mental capabilities

• Enablers include the “internet of things” (IoT), smart surfaces, social alarms, cellular reminder services, augmented reality…

• Players such as Intel are developing 3D object recognition systems.

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“Home as a second brain”

Implications• Could prove a real boost for care of fragile people,

especially if they have mental-health problems (e.g. early-stage dementia / Alzheimer’s)

• Real balance is needed; while mental augmentation can help day-to-day living, ‘mental exercise’ is extremely important

• Privacy and security must be maintained.

Premise: Within 10-15 years, home automation and related technologies make it impossible to forget where your keys

are, to take pills, or what a recipe is…

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“Next-generation eating”Premise: Food is getting smarter. Within 10-15 years, food preparation, diet customization, and food-safety become

automatic processes in domotic environments

Signposts• Food needs of an aging population

• Smart surfaces

• Food-safety & allergen sensing

• 3D printing of food…• … and many future-kitchen

concepts from IKEA, Electrolux, Whirlpool.

Photo: c/o TNO (Netherlands) / Popular Mechanics

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“Next-generation eating”

Implications• People have different dietary preferences and needs

• A balance is needed between providing assistance and providing healthy ‘mental exercise’

• Domotics technologies overlap with food safety, food preparation, and customization.

Premise: Food is getting smarter. Within 10-15 years, food preparation, diet customization, and food-safety become

automatic processes in domotic environments

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Hello

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“Home robots… finally”Premise: The demands of an aging population drive

demand for domestic robots significantly by 2025Signposts • Healthcare systems are overstretched

• Microsoft: ageing population will drive domestic robots

• People prefer care robots to care homes?

• Robots already developed for food-preparation applications

• Spin-offs: Single-use domestic robots, security robots, physical assist, health-monitoring, telepresence... domotics.

Photo: c/o Robosoft

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“Home robots… finally”

Implications• Although progress has appeared slow, large players and

research laboratories are still developing robotics for care applications

• The overlap between domotics and robotics is an interesting and significant area

• Robotics can provide inspiration for domotics companies and developers… and perhaps some enabling technologies.

Premise: The demands of an aging population drive demand for domestic robots significantly by 2025

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“Japanese domotification”Premise: Years of Japanese R&D in home automation,

robotics all pay dividends. By 2025, Japanese players lead the world in the commercialization of domotics.

Signposts• Nippon TV will start its Elderly-

Monitoring Service • Japan’s advanced kitchen/food robots

(Suzumo, Motoman, Sharp)• Japanese ‘smart homes’ in New York• Japan to pick robots and automation

over immigrants?• Honda begins leasing its Walking

Assist Exoskeleton

Photo: c/o Honda

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“Japanese domotification”

Implications• Players face extensive competition from Japanese

companies; some are very large players (Honda, Motoman, Sharp)

• Looking at developments in Japan is extremely important—especially technology approaches for helping fragile people

• Potential collaborators and partners…?

Premise: Years of Japanese R&D in home automation, robotics all pay dividends. By 2025, Japanese players lead

the world in the commercialization of domotics.

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Concluding remarks• Domotics is a diverse and evolving technology area—

overlapping functions include entertainment, heating, lighting, physical assistance, eating, care & wellness…

• In terms of supporting fragile people, domotics could

- Reduce burden on national healthcare systems

- Help fragile people stay in their own homes

- Improve safety, security, and quality of life.

• Consumer-electronics companies are active in the domotics space; players should look out for competition

• Robotics and domotics technology areas have synergies; robotics R&D could spin-out into domotics applications

• Domotics should play a supporting, not cosseting role!

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Thank you very much for listening!

From all at SBI

Carl TelfordProgram Manager, ScanStrategic Business InsightsKnollys HouseCroydon CR0 6SRUnited Kingdom

[email protected]+44 208 256 1416

www.strategicbusinessinsights.com