CAREER & TECHNICAL EDUCATION BEYOND 2020 Workforce … · EDUCATION BEYOND 2020. Workforce Trends & Economic Impacts. In the chat field, please share your name, your role, and the

RealTime TalentErin Olson, Research StrategistOctober 2020

CAREER & TECHNICAL EDUCATION BEYOND 2020

Workforce Trends & Economic Impacts

In the chat field, please share your name, your role, and the organization that

you represent.

Who’s in the Virtual “Room”

RealTime TalentErin Olson, Research StrategistOctober 2020

CAREER & TECHNICAL EDUCATION BEYOND 2020

Workforce Trends & Economic Impacts

Northeast Minnesota

Overview

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• Community Profile• Workforce Impacts of COVID-19• Shifting Opportunities• Accessible Career Pathways

Northeast Minnesota

Access the full regional report here:http://www.realtimetalent.org/research-2/cte-pathways/

IF YOU COULD DO ONE THING…

Of the following workforce-related

issues, which do you feel is the most important to be

addressed right now in your community?

Polling Question1. Improving broadband internet or technology

access2. Attracting younger talent / Addressing an aging

workforce3. Changing the variety or volume of local

educational offerings4. Providing immediate financial relief to small

businesses experiencing economic stress5. Increase supports for vulnerable populations

(this may include BIPOC communities, people with disabilities, disconnected youth, people experiencing poverty, the uninsured, or people who have become unemployed during the pandemic)

6. None of these issues need to be addressed in my community

Community Profile

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1.6% Hispanic/Latinx

5.3% Hispanic/Latinx

Northeast Minnesota

American Community Survey 2014-2018.

Community Profile

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Northeast Minnesota

American Community Survey 2014-2018.

Community Profile

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Northeast Minnesota

Community Profile

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Northeast Minnesota

NCES IPEDS 2017-18 awards and enrollment data.

Community Profile

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Northeast Minnesota

Community Profile

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Northeast Minnesota

DatabaseUSA, Accessed September 2020.

Workforce Impacts of COVID-19: Community Vulnerability

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• Age• Race/ethnicity• Gender• Some medical conditions• Use of certain medications• Poverty and crowding• Certain occupations• Pregnancy

Northeast Minnesota

Workforce Impacts of COVID-19: Community Vulnerability

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Northeast Minnesota

When you think about the current economic

situation in your community, which of the following career fields do you feel has

the most challenging or pressing workforce

needs to be addressed right now? (select up to

two)

Polling Question

1. Agriculture, Food, and Natural Resources

2. Arts, Communications, and Information Systems

3. Business, Management, and Administration

4. Engineering, Manufacturing, and Technology

5. Health Science Technology6. Human Services

When you think about your local school,

district, or consortium’s programming, how well

do you feel current program offerings

address your community’s most

challenging or pressing workforce needs right

now?

Polling Question

1. To a Great Extent2. Somewhat3. Very Little4. Not at all5. I do not know

Workforce Impacts of COVID-19: Industry Vulnerability

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Northeast Minnesota

Workforce Impacts of COVID-19: Occupational Vulnerability

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Estimated 28% of local occupations are high contact-intensity and may have higher than average exposure to COVID-19.

Based on analysis by Dingel, C. L., and B. Neiman (2020): “How Many Jobs Can be Done at Home?” NBER Working Paper No. 26948.Leibovici, F., A. M. Santacreu, and M. Famiglietti (2020): “Social Distancing and Contact-Intensive Occupations,” FRB St. Louis Technical Report, URL: https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2020/march/social-distancing-contact-intensive-occupations#:~:text=Food%20and%20beverage%20serving%20workers%20are%20at%20the%20bottom%20of,K%20to%2012th%20grade%20teachers.

Northeast Minnesota

Workforce Impacts of COVID-19: Forecast

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5-Year Forecast Comparison in Northeast Minnesota

Northeast Minnesota

Workforce Impacts of COVID-19: Forecast

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COVID-19-Impacted High Contact-Intensity Occupation Employment 5-Year Forecast in Northeast Minnesota

Northeast Minnesota

Workforce Impacts of COVID-19: Early Occupational Impacts

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Unemployment Insurance Applicants as a Share of Total Labor Force by County, March 16 – August 27, 2020

Employment by County, 2020Q1

Unemployment Insurance Applications, MN Department of Employment and Economic Development.

Northeast Minnesota

Workforce Impacts of COVID-19: Early Occupational Impacts

21Unemployment Insurance Applications, MN Department of Employment and Economic Development.

Northeast Minnesota

Workforce Impacts of COVID-19: Early Occupational Impacts

22Unemployment Insurance Applications, MN Department of Employment and Economic Development.

Northeast Minnesota

Workforce Impacts of COVID-19: Mid-Term Occupational Impacts

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Northeast Minnesota

Shifting Opportunities

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Remote Work Jobs by County, 2020Q1

Chmura Economics JobsEQ, 2020Q1 dataset.

Northeast Minnesota

Shifting Opportunities

25Cluster forecasts estimated using Chmura, JobsEQ, based on 2020Q1 employment data. All clusters are distinct occupations except for Agriculture, Food, and Natural Resources, which overlaps with other clusters.

Northeast Minnesota

Shifting Opportunities

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Employment, Annual Openings, and Wages by Career Cluster

Northeast Minnesota

Career Cluster Employment Avg Ann Wages Job Ads

Ann Empl Growth

Ann Total Demand

Science, Technology, Engineering & Mathematics 2,157 $86,900 67 -9 155

Information Technology 3,148 $73,500 187 1 233

Health Science 24,021 $66,700 2,286 58 1,881

Finance 5,099 $66,200 348 -18 449

Government & Public Administration 2,121 $58,300 54 -6 180

Agriculture, Food & Natural Resources 9,296 $55,200 361 -24 1,010

Architecture & Construction 14,910 $55,900 296 18 1,625

Law, Public Safety, Corrections & Security 6,193 $55,800 202 -30 523

Education & Training 12,550 $54,600 284 -25 1,119

Business, Management & Administration 28,008 $52,800 1,051 -259 2,698

Arts, A/V Technology & Communications 2,519 $47,100 90 -29 235

Manufacturing 14,504 $46,800 450 -153 1,344

Transportation, Distribution & Logistics 13,249 $45,700 648 -67 1,441

Marketing, Sales & Service 21,385 $39,600 1,586 -168 2,768

Human Services 15,124 $38,000 882 131 2,058

Hospitality & Tourism 31,465 $28,600 1,520 -25 5,091

Total - All Occupations 199,664 $48,800 10,064 -580 22,178

Cluster forecasts estimated using Chmura, JobsEQ, based on 2020Q1 employment data. All clusters are distinct occupations except for Agriculture, Food, and Natural Resources, which overlaps with other clusters.

Shifting Opportunities

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Occupations in 5-Year Shortage• Registered Nurses• LPNs• Nursing Assistants• Medical and Health Services

Managers• Medical Assistants• Physicians• Nurse Practitioners• Respiratory Therapists• Medical Records Specialists

Chmura Economics JobsEQ, 2020Q1 dataset.

Northeast Minnesota

Shifting Opportunities

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Occupations in 5-Year Shortage• Substance Abuse,

Behavioral Disorder, and Mental Health Counselors

• Police and Sheriff’s Patrol Officers

• Secondary School Teachers• Child, Family and School

Social Workers• Firefighters• Social and Community

Service Managers• Clinical, Counseling, and

School Psychologists

Chmura Economics JobsEQ, 2020Q1 dataset.

Northeast Minnesota

Emerging Career Paths

29Chmura Economics JobsEQ, 2020Q1 dataset.

Top Emerging Occupations March 1-August 31, 20201. Heavy and Tractor-Trailer and Truck Drivers (+63%)2. Personal Care Aides (+112%)3. Retail Salespersons (+24%)4. Insurance Sales Agents (+75%)5. Customer Service Representatives (+8%)6. Medical and Health Services Managers (+8%)7. Sales Representatives, All Other Services (+7%)8. Cashiers (+26%)9. Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers

(+251%)10.Light Truck or Delivery Services Drivers (+33%)

New Job Postings by City, March 1-August 31, 2020

Northeast Minnesota

614

667

781

873

1,205

1,2421,269

1,2712,212

7,141

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000

Crosby, MN

Moose Lake, MN

Cloquet, MN

Gilbert, MN

Grand Rapids, MN

Baxter, MN

Hibbing, MN

Virginia, MN

Brainerd, MN

Duluth, MN

2020 2019

Emerging Skill Gaps

30Chmura Economics JobsEQ, 2020Q1 dataset.

Top 10 Skill Gaps in Northeast Minnesota

Name Candidates Openings Gap

Heavy Equipment Operation 72 108 -36

Merchandising 89 123 -34

Bookkeeping 63 96 -34

Word Processing 74 108 -33

Graders 3 29 -26

Aviation 7 34 -26

Bilingual 41 67 -26

Budgeting 36 61 -25

Commercial Construction 7 32 -25

CSS 25 48 -23

Top 10 Certification Gaps in Northeast Minnesota

Name Candidates Openings Gap

Advanced Cardiac Life Support Certification (ACLS) 71 83 -12

Certified Pharmacy Technician (CPT) 11 22 -11

Emergency Nursing Pediatric Course (ENPC) 7 17 -10

Trauma Nursing Core Course (TNCC) 16 25 -9

Critical Care Registered Nurse (CCRN) 0 8 -8

Emergency Medical Technician (EMT) 24 31 -7

Certified Public Accountant (CPA) 31 38 -7

Pediatric Advanced Life Support (PALS) 42 48 -6

Registered Respiratory Therapist (RRT) 3 9 -6

Medical Technologist (Medical Technologists) 5 11 -6

Northeast Minnesota

Accessible Career PathwaysAssociate’s Degree or Less

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Northeast Minnesota

Accessible Career PathwaysAssociate’s Degree or Less

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Northeast Minnesota

Accessible Career PathwaysBachelor’s Degree or Higher

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Northeast Minnesota

Accessible Career PathwaysBachelor’s Degree or Higher

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Northeast Minnesota

In Summary

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Insights Unique to the Northeast• Several possible community vulnerabilities to address

(age, poverty, disconnected youth, disabilities)• Perhaps the most vulnerable region by industry mix• Communities hit hardest may include Cook, Cass, and

Lake of the Woods Counties• August 2020 Unemployment: 12,549 or 7.8% (DEED

Northeast Planning Region LAUS)• High-wage, high-growth, high-demand jobs of the

future require advanced degrees (postgraduate)• Just four of the 16 career clusters are poised to see

employment growth over the next ten years

Common Across Minnesota• Registered Nursing is the top occupation of shortage• Human Services is the top growing career cluster• Women are more likely to be employed in high contact-

intensity occupations• Younger workers, people without a college degree, women,

and BIPOC talent in Minnesota all applied for UI at high rates• Commonalities among top occupations applying for UI:

• Food and Beverage Serving Workers• Retail Sales• Personal Services• Construction Trades Workers

• Commonalities among top emerging occupations:• Finance Cluster: Sales agents, Insurance, Loan Officers• Therapeutic Services Pathway: Personal Care Aides and

Registered Nurses• Transportation Operations Pathway: Drivers and delivery

Northeast Minnesota

What piece of the data surprised, inspired, validated, or

challenged you?

Discussion Question 1

From your perspective, what are the most important

considerations in these data for Career and Technical Education

programs?

Discussion Question 2

What is one barrier that you can help remove for BIPOC

students?

Discussion Question 3

What additional information will you seek out next?

Discussion Question 4

What changes or evaluations to your program will you prioritize

next as a result of this data?

Discussion Question 5

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Thank you!

If you have questions about this report, please contact:Erin Olson, Research Strategist, [email protected]