RealTime Talent Erin Olson, Research Strategist October 2020 CAREER & TECHNICAL EDUCATION BEYOND 2020 Workforce Trends & Economic Impacts The contents of this publication were made possible through the Strengthening Career and Technical Education for the 21st Century Act (Perkins V) federal grant from the United States Department of Education administered through Minnesota State Colleges and Universities.
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RealTime TalentErin Olson, Research StrategistOctober 2020
CAREER & TECHNICAL EDUCATION BEYOND 2020
Workforce Trends & Economic Impacts
The contents of this publication were made possible through the Strengthening Career
and Technical Education for the 21st Century Act (Perkins V) federal grant from the United States Department of Education
administered through Minnesota State Colleges and Universities.
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RealTime TalentErin Olson, Research StrategistOctober 2020
CAREER & TECHNICAL EDUCATION BEYOND 2020
Workforce Trends & Economic Impacts
MSP Metro Minnesota
Overview
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• Community Profile• Workforce Impacts of COVID-19• Shifting Opportunities• Accessible Career Pathways
MSP Metro Minnesota
Access the full regional report here:http://www.realtimetalent.org/cte2020
issues, which do you feel is the most important to be
addressed right now in your community?
Polling Question1. Improving broadband internet or technology
access2. Attracting younger talent / Addressing an aging
workforce3. Changing the variety or volume of local
educational offerings4. Providing immediate financial relief to small
businesses experiencing economic stress5. Increase supports for vulnerable populations
(this may include BIPOC communities, people with disabilities, disconnected youth, people experiencing poverty, the uninsured, or people who have become unemployed during the pandemic)
6. None of these issues need to be addressed in my community
Community Profile
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6.3% Hispanic/Latinx
5.3% Hispanic/Latinx
American Community Survey 2014-2018.
MSP Metro Minnesota
Community Profile
7American Community Survey 2014-2018.
MSP Metro Minnesota
Community Profile
8
MSP Metro Minnesota
Community Profile
9NCES IPEDS 2017-18 awards and enrollment data.
MSP Metro Minnesota
Community Profile
10
MSP Metro Minnesota
Community Profile
11DatabaseUSA, Accessed September 2020.
MSP Metro Minnesota
Workforce Impacts of COVID-19: Community Vulnerability
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• Age• Race/ethnicity• Gender• Some medical conditions• Use of certain medications• Poverty and crowding• Certain occupations• Pregnancy
MSP Metro Minnesota
Workforce Impacts of COVID-19: Community Vulnerability
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MSP Metro Minnesota
When you think about the current economic
situation in your community, which of the following career fields do you feel has
the most challenging or pressing workforce
needs to be addressed right now? (select up to
two)
Polling Question
1. Agriculture, Food, and Natural Resources
2. Arts, Communications, and Information Systems
3. Business, Management, and Administration
4. Engineering, Manufacturing, and Technology
5. Health Science Technology6. Human Services
When you think about your local school,
district, or consortium’s programming, how well
do you feel current program offerings
address your community’s most
challenging or pressing workforce needs right
now?
Polling Question
1. To a Great Extent2. Somewhat3. Very Little4. Not at all5. I do not know
Workforce Impacts of COVID-19: Industry Vulnerability
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MSP Metro Minnesota
Workforce Impacts of COVID-19: Industry Vulnerability
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MSP Metro Minnesota
Estimated 14% of local occupations by industry may
experience short-term job loss due to COVID-19.
Workforce Impacts of COVID-19: Occupational Vulnerability
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Estimated 23% of local occupations are high
contact-intensity and may have higher than average exposure to COVID-19.
Based on analysis by Dingel, C. L., and B. Neiman (2020): “How Many Jobs Can be Done at Home?” NBER Working Paper No. 26948.Leibovici, F., A. M. Santacreu, and M. Famiglietti (2020): “Social Distancing and Contact-Intensive Occupations,” FRB St. Louis Technical Report, URL: https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2020/march/social-distancing-contact-intensive-occupations#:~:text=Food%20and%20beverage%20serving%20workers%20are%20at%20the%20bottom%20of,K%20to%2012th%20grade%20teachers.
MSP Metro Minnesota
Workforce Impacts of COVID-19: Forecast
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5-Year Forecast Comparison in the MSP Metro
MSP Metro Minnesota
Workforce Impacts of COVID-19: Forecast
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COVID-19-Impacted High Contact-Intensity Occupation Employment 5-Year Forecast in the MSP Metro
MSP Metro Minnesota
Workforce Impacts of COVID-19: Early Occupational Impacts
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Unemployment Insurance Applicants as a Share of Total Labor Force by County, March 16 – August 27, 2020
Employment by County, 2020Q1
Unemployment Insurance Applications, MN Department of Employment and Economic Development.
MSP Metro Minnesota
August 2020 Unemployment (LAUS): 142,116 (8.1%)
Workforce Impacts of COVID-19: Early Occupational Impacts
22Unemployment Insurance Applications, MN Department of Employment and Economic Development.
MSP Metro Minnesota
Workforce Impacts of COVID-19: Early Occupational Impacts
23Unemployment Insurance Applications, MN Department of Employment and Economic Development.
MSP Metro Minnesota
Workforce Impacts of COVID-19: Mid-Term Occupational Impacts
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MSP Metro Minnesota
COVID-19 has accelerated talent surplus anticipated in lower-wage, lower-education positions, particularly: 1) high contact-intensity
occupations and 2) positions that cannot be
done remotely.
Shifting Opportunities
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Remote Work Jobs by County, 2020Q1
Chmura Economics JobsEQ, 2020Q1 dataset.
MSP Metro Minnesota
Shifting Opportunities
26Cluster forecasts estimated using Chmura, JobsEQ, based on 2020Q1 employment data. All clusters are distinct occupations except for Agriculture, Food, and Natural Resources, which overlaps with other clusters.
MSP Metro Minnesota
Shifting Opportunities
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Employment, Annual Openings, and Wages by Career Cluster
Cluster forecasts estimated using Chmura, JobsEQ, based on 2020Q1 employment data. All clusters are distinct occupations except for Agriculture, Food, and Natural Resources, which overlaps with other clusters.
Total - All Occupations 1,875,117 $59,700 90,361 10,273 225,069
MSP Metro Minnesota
Shifting Opportunities
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Occupations in 5-Year Shortage• Registered Nurses• LPNs• Medical and Health Services
Managers• Medical Assistants• Physicians• Nurse Practitioners• Medical Secretaries• Physical Therapists• Medical Records Specialists• Nursing Assistants
Chmura Economics JobsEQ, 2020Q1 dataset.
MSP Metro Minnesota
Shifting Opportunities
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Occupations in 5-Year Shortage• Software Developers• Computer Systems Analysts• Network and Computer
Systems Administrators• Computer Occupations, All
Other• Computer Programmers• Web Developers and Digital
Interface Designers• Computer Network
Architects• Computer Network Support
Specialists
Chmura Economics JobsEQ, 2020Q1 dataset.
MSP Metro Minnesota
Emerging Career Paths
30Chmura Economics JobsEQ, 2020Q1 dataset.
Top Emerging Occupations March 1-August 31, 20201. Software Developers, Applications (+10%)2. Heavy and Tractor-Trailer and Truck Drivers (+15%)3. Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers
(+251%)4. Stock Clerks—Stockroom (+86%)5. Personal Care Aides (+108%)6. Insurance Sales Agents (+38%)7. Computer Systems Engineers (+5%)8. Nursing Assistants (+1%)9. Information Security Analysts (+19%)10. Loan Interviewers and Clerks (+131%)