capturing growth in the global market dried fruit & tree nuts

© Euromonitor International

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MISSION POSSIBLE: CAPTURING GROWTH IN THE GLOBAL MARKET DRIED FRUIT & TREE NUTS DFA OF CALIFORNIA AND SPECIALTY CROP TRADE COUNCIL 2014 ANNUAL

CONFERENCE: MISSION POSSIBLE

http://www.cdfea.org/index.php


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EUROMONITOR INTERNATIONAL OVERVIEW

Global provider of strategic market intelligence

12 regional offices - 800+ analysts in 80 countries

Cross-country comparable data and analysis

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Forecasts with matching trend analysis

All retail channels covered

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London

Singapore

Shanghai

Dubai

Vilnius

Cape Town

Santiago

Tokyo

Sydney

Chicago

Bangalore

GLOBAL MERCHANDISE TRADE

DRIVERS, CONSTRAINTS & TRENDS

TREE NUT & DRIED FRUIT EXPORTS

FOOD CONSUMPTION TRENDS

RIDING THE GROWTH TRACK


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WHAT’S HAPPENED IN GLOBAL TRADE IN THE LAST YEAR? TRADE INSIGHTS…


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WORLD’S EXPORTS CONTINUE TO CLIMB MERCHANDISE EXPORTS REACHING NEW HEIGHTS…

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$16,000

$18,000

$20,000

1980 1990 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Total World-to-World Merchandise Exports in US$ Billions


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WTO VOLUME TREND AND FORECAST VOLUME WITH NEARLY STEADY GROWTH

Volume of world merchandise exports, 1990-2014

Indices, 1990=100

Figures for 2013 and 2014 are projections.

Source: WTO Secretariat


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WORLD AG EXPORTS NEAR $1.8 TRILLION

TOTAL AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

1980 1990 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Total World-to-World Exports of Agricultural Products in US$ Billions

Figure for 2013 is a projection based on partial year results.


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FORECASTS FROM HSBC COMMERCIAL BANKING WORLD MERCHANDISE TRADE EXPECTED TO PICK UP PACE

EMERGING MARKETS CONTINUE SHIFT TO CONSUMPTION MODE

AVERAGE TRADE VALUE GROWTH RATE OF 4.7% ANNUALLY TO 2026 (From 2014-2016 , global trade annual growth of $1 trillion expected .)

2014-2026: WORLD TRADE VOLUME TO GROW MORE THAN 80% (Note: Volume growth exceeded 30% from 2005-2013 and saw export value growth of more than $9 trillion.)







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INCREASE IN PTAS SUPPORTING DYNAMIC TRADE GROWTH PREFERENTIAL TRADE AGREEMENTS


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POPULATION ANOTHER DRIVER OF TRADE GROWTH SIGNIFICANT AND UNEVEN POPULATION INCREASE

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

Asia Pacific Middle Eastand Africa

Latin America WesternEurope

North America Australasia

Population Growth in ‘000: 2011 through 2020

Developed regions present

population growth of less than 50

million through 2020.

Developing regions present

population growth of more than

630 million through 2020.


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-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Millio

ns o

f p

eo

ple

Urban vs Rural Population Growth: 2011-2016

Asia Pacific MEA

Consumers buying their food rather than

growing/producing their own

Convenience becomes more important to

consumers

Food manufacturers able to reach more

people

Increased consumer wages and spending

power in urban areas

POPULATION GROWTH IN AREAS SERVED BY TRADE

URBAN POPULATION INCREASE

Rural

Urban


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RISE IN DISPOSABLE INCOME SUPPORTS PURCHASING DEVELOPING MARKETS WITH MORE MONEY

An increase of US$1339 per capita in disposable income is expected in Asia-Pacific by 2020.

Estimates show that some 20-30% of this additional income will be spent on food.

Asia Pacific represents more than trillion dollar opportunity for the food industry.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

$0$2,000$4,000$6,000$8,000

$10,000$12,000$14,000$16,000$18,000$20,000

Regional Disposable Income: Historic & Forecast in US$ billions

Yr 2011

Yr 2020

% Growth


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PTAs, DEMAND, PURCHASING POWER, POPULATION…

NEW-WORLD BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT.

THE GLOBAL SUPERMARKET IS EXPANDING BUT NOT WITHOUT CHALLENGES


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WHAT’S THE IMPACT TO THE U.S. AND CALIFORNIA? HOW HAS THIS AFFECTED EXPORTS…


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THE U.S. HAS SET ANOTHER AG EXPORT RECORD

US AG EXPORTS AS REPORTED BY USDA’S GLOBAL AGRICULTURAL TRADE SYSTEM (GATS)…


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CALIFORNIA AG EXPORTS SET RECORD TOO…

ACCORDING TO THE USDA’S GATS

2013: EXPORTED TO 168 MARKETS (Tree nuts to 110 markets; dried fruit to 90 markets)

2012-2013: CALIFORNIA’S AG EXPORTS TOPPED $25 BILLION ON 14% GROWTH

(This is “origin-of-movement” exports as reported by the USDA/FAS.)

2013: CALIFORNIA REPRESENTED MORE THAN 17% OF TOTAL U.S. AG EXPORTS







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U.S. TREE NUT EXPORTS STILL ON RAPID RISE

UP NEARLY 130% IN FIVE YEARS

11%

20% 20% 21%

17%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

$0

$1,000,000

$2,000,000

$3,000,000

$4,000,000

$5,000,000

$6,000,000

$7,000,000

$8,000,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

US Exports of Tree Nuts to the World in US$ '000

Export value

Growth rate


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CALIFORNIA 92% OF U.S. TREE NUT EXPORTS IN 2013

CALIFORNIA’S TREE NUT EXPORTS GROWING FASTER. & GAINING SHARE…

11%

23%

18%

21%

24%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

$0

$1,000,000

$2,000,000

$3,000,000

$4,000,000

$5,000,000

$6,000,000

$7,000,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

California Exports of Tree Nuts to the World in US$ '000

Export value

Growth rate


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CALIFORNIA TREE NUTS WITH ANOTHER RECORD


2013: EXPORTS TO SPAIN, GERMANY, ITALY & THE NETHERLANDS COMBINED FOR $528 MILLION UPTICK

2012-2013: NEARLY $1.3 BILLION IN GROWTH FOR TREE NUT EXPORTS (This is “origin-of-movement” exports as reported by the USDA/FAS.)

2013: EIGHTEEN OF CALIFORNIA’S TOP TWENTY MARKETS ADVANCED (Do you know which two declined?)


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ASIA PACIFIC STILL MAJORITY OF TREE NUT TRADE

CALIFORNIA EXPORTS OF TREE NUTS VERY DIVERSE BUT…

$0

$200,000

$400,000

$600,000

$800,000

$1,000,000

$1,200,000

2013 California Tree Nut Exports by Country in US$ ‘000


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KEY GROWTH MARKETS FOR CALIFORNIA TREE NUTS

2008-2013: CALIFORNIA EXPORT GROWTH MARKETS FOR TREE NUTS

Mid-Tier $100mm-$200mm

Highest >$200 mm

Lowest $23mm-$45mm

** Indicates 50%+ growth in U.S. exports in January 2014 versus same time last year.


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DID YOU CAPTURE SOME OF THIS GROWTH?

I HOPE YOU LISTENED

Market

2007-2012

growth

($M)

US Tree Nut

Imports

($M)

2007-12

growth

Saudi Arabia $38.8 $55.5 233%

Algeria $33.8 $41.5 438%

Mexico $21.4 $44.7 92%

Switzerland $17.5 $25.6 212%

Egypt $13.4 $26.1 105%

Chile $12.1 $20.3 146%

Thailand $10.9 $17.1 172%

These markets were identified at the beginning of last year as “up-and-

coming” – they grew U.S. tree nut exports over $50 million in 2013.


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RAPID GROWTH ACROSS MAJOR TREE NUT CATEGORIES

ALMOND EXPORTS STILL DOMINATE WITH WALNUTS, AND PISTACHIOS ALSO STRONG…

125% 114%

108% 104%

149%

13%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

$0

$500,000

$1,000,000

$1,500,000

$2,000,000

$2,500,000

$3,000,000

$3,500,000

California Tree Nut Exports by Type in US$ ‘000 2009 & 2013

Yr 2009

Yr 2013

Growth rate


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WHAT’S HAPPENING IN DRIED FRUIT EXPORTS? PERFORMANCE OVERVIEW


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DRIED FRUIT EXPORTS AT ALL-TIME HIGHS FOR CALIFORNIA


2013: CALIFORNIA EXPORTED A RECORD $646 MILLION ACROSS 90 MARKETS (This is “origin-of-movement” exports as reported by the USDA/FAS.)

2012-2013: THE U.S. EXPORTED $722 MILLION

2013: CALIFORNIA GREW EXPORTS 2%, BUT THE REST OF THE U.S. DECLINED 11%


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CALIFORNIA EXPORTS 92% OF TOTAL U.S. DRIED FRUIT

CALIFORNIA OUTPERFORMING EXPORT GROWTH OF BROADER U.S.

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Rest of U.S.

California


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DRIED FRUIT EXPORT MARKETS SHOW UNEVEN GROWTH

RECORD WAS MISSED TO DECLINES AMONG TOP-TWENTY TRADE PARTNERS LED BY MEXICO

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

2013 California Exports of Dried Fruits by Country in US$ '000

Export sales 1-yr growth rate


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CALIFORNIA’S LEADING DRIED FRUIT EXPORTS FIVE-YEAR GROWTH SHOWS SOLID GAINS…

31% 26%

89%

123%

20%

46%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

Grapes,Dried

Prunes,Dried

Dates Fruits,Dried Nes

Figs Apricots,Dried

2009 & 2013: California Dried Fruit Exports in US$ '000

Yr 2009

Yr 2013

% growth


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WHAT ARE THE SIMILARITIES IN EXPORT PATTERNS? COMMONALITIES OF CALIFORNIA TREE NUTS AND DRIED FRUITS


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ABILITY TO REACT TO GLOBAL DEMAND HELPS SUCCESS

CALIFORNIA REDUCES EXPOSURE THROUGH BREADTH OF MARKETS SERVED

2013: CALIFORNIA BENEFITTED FROM DIVERSIFIED TRADE-PARTNER PORTFOLIO (A diversified portfolio is one of your best friends!)

2013: NEW RECORDS SET; EXPORTS TO DEVELOPED MKTS GAINED SHARE OVER DEVELOPING MKTS (Tree nuts gained 300bp to 44% ; dried fruit gained 800bp 67%)

2013: ECONOMIC SHIFTS PLAYED IMPORTANT ROLE







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WHAT FOLLOWS IS AN IMPORTANT REMINDER A BRIEF FEW WORDS…


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DEVELOPING MARKETS CRITICAL TO CONTINUED GROWTH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL…

WHY? To name a few…

Took in 56% of California’s tree nut exports and 33% of dried fruit in 2013

Relatively rapid growth in population & income

Massive expansion of middle class

Improving infrastructure and distribution

Emphasis on Free-Trade-Agreements

Adds to a diversified portfolio of trade partners


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REGIONAL GROWTH OF GROCERY RETAILING

DEVELOPING MARKETS: GROCERY RETAIL DEVELOPMENT ALIGNING WITH MARKET DYNAMICS


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REGIONAL GROWTH OF CONSUMER FOODSERVICE

LINES OF DEVELOPMENT HAVE CLEARLY SHIFTED


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COUNTRY CAGR: PACKAGED FOODS FORECAST DEVELOPING MARKETS ARE KEY TO GLOBAL GROWTH IN PROCESSED PRODUCTS TOO…


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DEVELOPING MARKETS CRITICAL TO VOLUME GROWTH VOLUME REVEALS LARGER DISPARITIES THOUGH

Asia-Pacific, Middle East & Africa and Latin America are expected to combine for approximately 87% global volume growth in packaged foods from 2012-2017.

Asia-Pacific is expected to be 59% of total global volume growth.

Western Europe and North America experiencing flat per capita consumption.


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PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION REVEALS OPPORTUNITIES

SIZEABLE GAPS BETWEEN DEVELOPED AND DEVELOPING

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Packaged Food: kg Per Capita Consumption by Region - 2012 to 2017

Western Europe

Australasia

North America

Eastern Europe

Latin America

World

Middle East and Africa

Asia Pacific


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GROWTH EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MOST AG EXPORTS EXPANSION IS MUCH BROADER THAN JUST TREE NUTS AND DRIED FRUITS

.







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RISKS AND MITIGATION…

LET’S TALK…

Supply/service disruptions (we need water or a better way forward…preferably both)

Tariff and non-tariff trade barriers

Food safety

Maximizing return to growers / producers


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THE WORLD IS DEMANDING MORE

THIS IS STILL ONLY THE BEGINNING…


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CAPTURING GREATER GROWTH

KEY STEPS

EXPLORE & EXPAND EXPORTING

KEEP MOVING FORWARD

DON’T GO IT ALONE – GET HELP TO AVOID MISTAKES


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PARTNERS & RESOURCES IMPORTANT GROUPS TO KNOW…

These resources are here to help. Contact them to understand the

services they offer to support your business and export growth.

http://www.cdfea.org/index.php


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THANK YOU FOR LISTENING

Matt Tripodi Government & Trade Relations Manager Tel: +1 312-922-1115 ext. 8205 Email: [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

capturing growth in the global market dried fruit & tree nuts

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