Capitol Hill Campis March 2016

Getting Used to Life in the Slow Lane

Capital Hill CampusBruce Yandle

March 15, 2016

• Why Slow Gear?• The Geographic Imprint• Does Money Matter?• Regulatory Uncertainty

2000

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2001

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2002

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2003

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2004

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2005

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2006

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2007

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2008

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2009

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2010

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2011

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2012

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2013

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2014

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2015

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-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

U.S. Real GDP Growth from Preceding Year2000 - 2015

Growth from Preceding Year

Percent

Is there a Wizard???

U.S. Manufacturing and Services Index: 1/2009 – 1/2016  

Does Money Matter?

Money & Velocity: 1Q2000 – 4Q2015

Quarterly Growth Rate

NASA. April – October, 2012.

The Geographic Imprint

Unemployment rates by state,2010 annual averages

(U.S. rate = 9.6 percent)

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics

14.0% and over

12.0% to 13.9%

10.0% to 11.9%

8.0% to 9.9%

6.0% to 7.9%

4.0% to 5.9%

3.9% or below

According to Gallup, the “let’s get out of here” states are Illinois, where 50% wish to leave, Connecticut (49%), Maryland (47%), Nevada (43%), Rhode Island (42%), New Jersey (41%), New York (41%), Massachusetts (41%), Louisiana (40%) and Mississippi (39%). At the other end of the spectrum, Gallup found Montana (23%), Hawaii (23%), Maine (23%), Oregon (24%), New Hampshire (24%), Texas (24%), Colorado (25%), Minnesota (25%), South Dakota (26%) and Wyoming (27%).

U.S. Code of Federal Regulations

Why Command and Control?

Targeting Benefits with Regulation

Bootleggers & Baptists grease the rails