Capital Program Oversight Committee (CPOC) May 23, 2011 Alok Saha, P.E., Program Manager, CPM Infrastructure and Facilities – Line Equipment, Shops & Yard.

Capital Program Oversight Committee (CPOC)

May 23, 2011

Alok Saha, P.E., Program Manager, CPMInfrastructure and Facilities – Line Equipment, Shops & Yard

Mulry Square Fan Plant

Quantitative Risk Assessment

Mulry Square Fan Plant

Serving both 7th & 8th Avenue Subway Lines (local & express)

Site Location

*

2

Existing Site

Memorial Tiles

7th Ave.

7th Ave.

Greenwich Ave.

Greenwich Ave.

3

Key Plan & Design Innovations

Greenwich Avenue

IND A, C & E trains

IRT 1, 2 & 3 trains

7th Avenue

Parking

Parking

Use of Building Information Modeling (BIM) in project design

Relocated 7th Ave. Plenum to above the existing Subway structure

Reduced the Design Heat Load and # of fans

Preserve space for 9/11 memorial tiles display

PLENUMPLENUM

4

Risk Mitigation Plan

Fan Performance issues (factory & field)

• Improved specifications and design documents

• Frequent site visit during installation by commissioning, design and users groups

Testing and Acceptance Issues

• Standardization of testing and acceptance protocols

• Programmable Logic Controller Control software by in-house engineers

• Thorough shake-down tests

Street Work • Close coordination with DOT and Community

• Comprehensive MPT Plans for phased construction

Utility Issues

NYCDEP and Con Edison Power Service

• Extra effort in design phase for utility identification and coordination

• Close coordination with Con Edison

• Close coordination with NYC Department of Environmental Protection

ROW Work Issues • Advance track access planning and coordination

• Coordinate multiple activities/trades simultaneously

• Installation of track shielding

Lessons Learned – Mitigated Risks(Building on the experiences of prior Fan Plant Projects)

5

Air Flow Schematic - Exhaust

6

Rendering of the Final Facade

7

Objectives of Risk Assessment

Confirm 80% confidence level in:

Project base cost estimate - $89.0M Construction duration – 40 Months

Ensure a clear path to successful project delivery

8

Trend of Construction Duration & Cost (1990 – 2012 forecast)

9

Project Averages (Duration & Cost)

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1 2 3 4

Completion Period (1990 - 2012)

Con

st. D

urn.

(M

onth

s)

Duration Delay Ahead

Avg. Completion 64 Months Avg. Completion 39 Months

Financial 1990-1999Award: $10.10Completion.:$11.05Savings: $-0.95Savings: -9.39%

1990-1999

2000-2004

2005-2010

2012

Financial 2000-2004Award: $22.65Completion: $21.91Savings: $0.74Savings: 3.26%

Financial 2005-2010Award: $48.46Completion: $46.44Savings: $2.02Savings: 4.16%

2012 Awd:$76.02 Cmp:$71.52 Svg: $4.5 Svg: 6.05%

Trend Line - Construction Duration

Jackson Ave(Forecast)

64

51 50

39

14

14 9

4

Avg. Delay14 Months

Risk Cost Schedule Mitigation

Street Work and Con Edison Steam Main Work

$5.6M to $ 0.1M

(Save $ 5.5M)

12 to 0 Months

Concurrent with subsurface work

• Close coordination with DOT and community. Secured DOT stipulations

• Close coordination with Con Edison

R-O-W work $9.8M to $4.9M

(Save $ 4.9M)

Concurrent with the Street work

• Installation of track shields• Provide greater schedule flexibility

to coordinate multiple trades activities

IRT 7th Ave. Plenum Construction Below Tracks

$24.4M to $17.9M

(Save $ 6.5M)

Concurrent with the Street work

• Plenum redesign (design innovation) • Construct plenum below 7th Ave and

over subway roof

Environmental-UndergroundGas Tanks

$0.5M to $0.22M

(Save $ 0.22M)

3 to 0 Months • Remove before Award

Subsurface Conditions andSettlement of theAdjacent Structure

$4.0M to $1.85M

(Save $ 2.15M)

12 to 0 Months concurrent with the Street work

• Additional proactive site investigations• Worst case scenario [total wall

replacement] in bid estimate• Hired consultant experienced in

100 year old masonry buildings

Risk Drivers and Mitigations (cost and schedule savings)

10

Risk Based Project Cost & Schedule

Overall Project Cost-Risk-Based-Cost Estimate Risk-Based Project Duration

$88.9

$89.0

40.6

40.0

11

Total Project Construction Duration Savings [15 Months]

Base Estimate@ Preliminary

Design – without mitigations

Revised Estimate@ Final Design – with mitigations

80% Confidence Level

@ Risk Analysis

Anticipated Project Award

55 40– 27%

40.6– 0.015%

2011

*The total project cost includes bid, force accounts as well as other third party costs such as utilities and traffic agents

Cost and Schedule Savings

12

Total Project Construction Cost savings [$19.5 M]

Base Estimate@ Preliminary

Design

Revised Estimate@ Final Design

80% Confidence Level

@ Risk Analysis

Anticipated Project Award

$108.5M $89M*– 17.97%

$88.9M– 0.01%

2011