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    CAPITAL BUDGETING

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    Capital Budgeting

    Capital budgeting decisions are related to the allocation of

    funds to different long assets.

    Broadly speaking, the capital budgeting decisions a

    decisions situation where the lump sum funds are

    invested in the initial stages of projects and the returns

    are expected over a long period.

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    Significance of capital budgeting

    Decisions

    Long-term Effects.

    Substantial commitments.

    Irreversible decisions.

    Affect the capacity and strength to compete

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    Types of Capital Budgeting Decisions

    Every capital budgeting decisions is a specific

    decisions in the given situation, for a given firm and with

    given parameters and therefore, an almost infinite number

    of types or forms of capital budgeting decisions may occur.

    Even if the same decision being considered by the

    same firm at two different points of time, the decisions

    consideration may changes as a result of changes in any of

    the variable.

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    Types of Capital Budgeting Decisions

    However, the different types of capital budgeting decision

    undertaken from time to time by different firm can be classified

    on a number of dimension. In general, the projects can be

    categorized as follows:

    From the point of view of firms existence:

    New firm.

    Existing firm :

    Replacement and modernization.

    Expansion.

    Diversification.

    Contingent decisions.

    Mutually exclusive investment.

    Independent investment.

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    Types of Capital Budgeting Decisions

    However, the different types of capital budgeting decisionundertaken from time to time by different firm can be classified on anumber of dimension. In general, the projects can be categorized asfollows:

    From the point of view of firms existence:New firm.Existing firm : Replacement and modernization.

    Expansion.

    Diversification.

    Contingent decisions.

    From the point view of decision situation: Mutually exclusive investment.

    Independent investment.

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    Evaluation Criteria

    Non-discounted Cash Flow Criteria

    Payback Period (PB)

    Discounted payback period (DPB)

    Accounting Rate of Return (ARR)

    Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Criteria

    Net Present Value (NPV)

    Internal Rate of Return (IRR)

    Profitability Index (PI)

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    PAYBACK

    Payback is the number of years required to recover the

    original cash outlay invested in a project.

    If the project generates constant annual cash inflows, the

    payback period can be computed by dividing cash outlay

    by the annual cash inflow. That is:

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    Example

    Assume that a project requires an outlay of Rs 50,000

    and yields annual cash inflow of Rs 12,500 for 7 years.

    The payback period for the project is:

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    PAYBACK

    Unequal cash flows : In case of unequal cash inflows, thepayback period can be found out by adding up the cash

    inflows until the total is equal to the initial cash outlay.

    Suppose that a project requires a cash outlay of Rs

    20,000, and generates cash inflows of Rs 8,000; Rs

    7,000; Rs 4,000; and Rs 3,000 during the next 4 years.

    What is the projects payback?

    3 years + 12 (1,000/3,000) months

    3 years + 4 months

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    Acceptance Rule

    The project would be accepted if its payback period is

    less than the maximum or standard payback period set by

    management.

    As a ranking method, it gives highest ranking to the

    project, which has the shortest payback period and lowest

    ranking to the project with highest payback period.

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    DISCOUNTED PAYBACK PERIOD

    The discounted payback period is the number of periods

    taken in recovering the investment outlay on the present

    value basis.

    The discounted payback period still fails to consider the

    cash flows occurring after the payback period.

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    Evaluation of Payback

    Certain virtues:

    Simplicity

    Cost effective

    Short-term effects

    Risk shield

    Liquidity

    Serious limitations:

    Cash flows after payback

    Cash flows ignored

    Cash flow patterns

    Administrative difficulties

    Inconsistent with shareholder value

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    Evaluation of Payback

    Cash flows after pay back :

    Cash flows (Rs)

    Project C0 C1 C2 C3 Payback NPV

    X -4,000 0 4000 2000 2 years 806

    Y -4000 2000 2000 0 2 years -530

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    Evaluation of Payback

    Cash flows ignored :

    Cash flows (Rs.)

    Project C0 C1 C2 C3 Payback NPV

    C -4,000 0 4000 2000 2 years 806

    D -4000 2000 2000 0 2 years -530

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    Evaluation of Payback

    Cash flows patterns:

    Cash flows (Rs.)

    Project C0 C1 C2 C3 Payback NPV

    P -5,000 3000 2000 2000 2 years 881X -5000 2000 3000 2000 2 years 798

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    Accounting Rate of Return (ARR)

    The accounting rate of return is also known as return oninvestment or return on capital employed.

    Method employing the normal accounting technique tomeasure the increase in profit expected to result from an

    investment by expressing the net accounting profit arisingfrom the investment as a percentage of that capitalinvestment.

    Accounting rate of return= Average annual profit after tax

    average or initial investment

    Average investment = Initial investment +salvage value

    2

    100

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    ACCOUNTING RATE OF RETURN

    METHOD The accounting rate of return is the ratio of the average

    after-tax profit divided by the average investment. Theaverage investment would be equal to half of the originalinvestment if it were depreciated constantly.

    Or

    A variation of the ARR method is to divide averageearnings after taxes by the original cost of the projectinstead of the average cost.

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    Example

    A project will cost Rs 40,000. Its stream of earnings before

    depreciation, interest and taxes (EBDIT) during first year

    through five years is expected to be Rs 10,000, Rs

    12,000, Rs 14,000, Rs 16,000 and Rs 20,000. Assume a

    50 per cent tax rate and depreciation on straight-linebasis.

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    Cacualtion of Accounting Rate of Return

    Period 1 2 3 4 5 Average (RS)

    Earning Before Depreciation, Interest and Taxes ( EBDIT) 10,000Rs. 12,000Rs. 14,000Rs. 16,000Rs. 20,000Rs. 14,400Rs.

    Depreciation 8,000Rs. 8,000Rs. 8,000Rs. 8,000Rs. 8,000Rs. 8,000Rs.

    Earning before , Interest and Taxes ( EBIT) 2,000Rs. 4,000Rs. 6,000Rs. 8,000Rs. 12,000Rs. 6,400Rs.Taxes at 50% 1,000Rs. 2,000Rs. 3,000Rs. 4,000Rs. 6,000Rs. 3,200Rs.

    Earning before interest and after taxes [EBIT(1-T)] 1,000Rs. 2,000Rs. 3,000Rs. 4,000Rs. 6,000Rs. 3,200Rs.

    Book value of inves tment

    Begning

    Ending

    Average

    40,000Rs.

    32,000Rs.

    36,000Rs.

    32,000Rs.

    24,000Rs.

    28,000Rs.

    24,000Rs.

    16,000Rs.

    20,000Rs.

    16,000Rs.

    8,000Rs.

    12,000Rs.

    8,000Rs.

    Nil

    4,000Rs. 20,000Rs.

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    Calculation of Accounting Rate of Return

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    Calculation of Accounting Rate of Return

    Consider the following investment opportunity:

    A machine is available for purchase at a cost of Rs.80,000.

    We expect it to have a life of five years and to have a Scarp value of Rs.10,000 at the end of

    the five years period. We have estimated that it will generate additional profits over its life as

    follows:

    These estimate are of profit before depreciation.

    Your required to calculate the return on capital employed

    Year 1 2 3 4 5

    Amount (RS) 20,000 40,000 30,000 15,000 5,000

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    Solution

    Total profit before depreciation over the life of the machine = Rs1,10,000

    Avergare profit p.a = Rs. 1,10,000/5 years = Rs.22,000

    Total depricaition over the life of the machine (Rs. 80,000 - Rs. 10,000 =RS.70,000

    Average depreciation p.a = Rs.70,000/5 years = Rs.14,000

    Average annual profit after depreciation = Rs. 22,000 - Rs. 14,000 =Rs.8,000

    Original investment required = Rs.80,000

    Accounting rate of return = ( Rs.8000/Rs.80,000)X 100 = 10%

    Average investment = (Rs.80,000 + Rs.10,000)/2 = Rs. 45,000

    Accounting rate of return = ( Rs.8,000/Rs.45000)X100 = 17.78%

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    Calculation of Accounting Rate of Return

    X Ltd considering the purchase of a machine. Two machines are

    available E and F. the cost of each machine is Rs.60,000. Eachmachine has an expected life of years. Net profit before tax andafter depreciation during the expected life of the machine are givenbelow.

    Following the method of average return on average investmentascertain the which of the alternative will be more profitable. Theaverage rate of tax may be taken at 50%.

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    Calculation of Accounting Rate of Return25

    Solution

    Year Machine E Machine F

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    Total

    PBT(Rs)

    15000

    20000

    25000

    15000

    10000

    85000

    Tax @ 50%(RS)

    7500

    10000

    12500

    7500

    5000

    42500

    PAT(Rs)

    7500

    10000

    12500

    7500

    5000

    42500

    PBT(Rs)

    5000

    10000

    20000

    30000

    20000

    90000

    Tax @50% (Rs)

    2500

    5000

    10000

    15000

    10000

    45000

    PAT(Rs)

    2500

    5000

    10000

    15000

    10000

    45000

    Statement of Profitablity

    42500x1/5=Rs.85,000 45000x1/5 = Rs.9,000

    Machine E Machine F

    Avergae Profit After Tax:

    8500/30,000x100 = 28.33%

    Avergae Investment :

    Average return on Average investment:60,000x1/2 = Rs.30,000 60,000x1/2 = Rs.30,000

    9000/30,000x100=30%

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    Acceptance Rule

    This method will accept all those projects whose ARR is

    higher than the minimum rate established by the

    management and reject those projects which have ARR

    less than the minimum rate.

    This method would rank a project as number one if it has

    highest ARR and lowest rank would be assigned to the

    project with lowest ARR.

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    Evaluation of ARR Method

    The ARR method may claim some merits

    Simplicity

    Accounting data

    Accounting profitabilitySerious shortcomings

    Cash flows ignored

    Time value ignored

    Arbitrary cut-off

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    Discounted cash flows (DCF)/Time

    Adjusted (TA) Techniques

    The distinguishing character of the DCF capital budgeting

    techniques is that they take into consideration the time

    value of money while evaluating the cost and benefit of a

    project.

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    Net Present Value Method

    Cash flows of the investment project should be forecasted

    based on realistic assumptions.

    Appropriate discount rate should be identified to discount

    the forecasted cash flows.

    Present value of cash flows should be calculated using

    the opportunity cost of capital as the discount rate.

    Net present value should be found out by subtracting

    present value of cash outflows from present value of cash

    inflows. The project should be accepted if NPV is positive

    (i.e., NPV > 0).

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    Net Present Value Method

    The formula for the net present value can be written as

    follows:

    30

    n

    t

    t

    t

    n

    n

    Ck

    C

    Ck

    C

    k

    C

    k

    C

    k

    C

    1

    0

    03

    3

    2

    21

    )1(NPV

    )1()1()1()1(NPV

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    Calculating Net Present Value

    Assume that Project X costs Rs 2,500 now and is

    expected to generate year-end cash inflows of Rs.900,

    Rs.800, Rs.700, Rs.600 and Rs.500 in years 1 through 5.

    The opportunity cost of the capital may be assumed to be

    10 per cent.

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    Calculating Net Present Value

    3

    Years

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    Cash Inflows(Rs)

    2500

    900

    800

    700

    600

    500

    Discount factor 10%

    1

    0.909

    0.826

    0.751

    0.683

    0.62

    Present value

    -2500

    818

    661

    526

    410

    310

    Project NPV=225

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    Why is NPV Important?

    Positive net present value of an investment represents

    the maximum amount a firm would be ready to pay for

    purchasing the opportunity of making investment, or the

    amount at which the firm would be willing to sell the right

    to invest without being financially worse-off.

    The net present value can also be interpreted to

    represent the amount the firm could raise at the required

    rate of return, in addition to the initial cash outlay, todistribute immediately to its shareholders and by the end

    of the projects life, to have paid off all the capital raised

    and return on it.

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    Acceptance Rule

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    Acceptance Rule

    NPV is most acceptable investment rule for thefollowing reasons:

    Time value

    Measure of true profitability

    Value-additivity

    Shareholder value

    Involved cash flow estimation Discount rate difficult to determine

    Mutually exclusive projects

    Ranking of projects

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    Present value of.1

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    Internal Rate Return

    Internal rate of return ( IRR) is a percentage discount rate used in

    capital investment appraisals which brings the cost of a project and its

    future cash inflows into equality.

    This technique also known as YIELD ON INVESTMENT, marginalefficiency of capital, MARGINAL PRODUCTIVITY OF CAPITAL RATEOF RETURN, TIME ADJUSTED RATE OF RETURNand so on.

    It is the rate of return which equates the present value of anticipated

    net cash flows with the initial outlay.

    The IRR is also defined as the rate at which the present value is zero.

    The rate for computing IRR depends on bank lending rate oropportunity cost of funds to invest in which is often called as personal

    discounting rate or accounting rate.

    The test of profitability of a project is the relationship between the IRR

    (%) of the project and the minimum acceptable rate of return (%).

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    Calculation of Internal Rate Return

    When future cash flows are equal:

    In case the proposal has only one outflows in the beginning and

    stream of equal cash flow in future, the calculation of IRR is rather

    simple.

    This can be explained with help of example.

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    Calculation of Internal Rate Return

    A firm is evaluating a proposalcosting . 1,00,000 and havingannual inflows of.25,000occurring at the end of each ofnext six years. There is no

    salvage value. The IRR of theproposal may be calculated asfollows:

    Step1:Make an approximate of the IRR on

    the basis of cash flows data.

    A rough approximation may bemade with reference to the payback period.

    The payback period in the givencase is 4 years.

    Now, search for a value nearest to4 in the 6 years row of the PVAFtable.

    The closet figure are given in rate

    12%(4.111) and the rate 13%(3.998).

    This mean that the IRR of theproposal is expected to lie between12% and 13%

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    Calculation of Internal Rate Return

    A firm is evaluating a proposal

    costing . 1,00,000 and having

    annual inflows of.25,000

    occurring at the end of each ofnext six years. There is no

    salvage value.

    Step2:

    In order to make a precise

    estimate of the IR, find out the

    NPV of the project for boththese rates as follows:

    At 12%, NPV =

    (25,000PVAF12% 6) -

    .100,000

    =(.250004.111)-

    100,000

    = . 2,775.

    At 13%, NPV =

    (25,000PVAF13%6) -.100,000

    =(.250003.998)-

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    Calculation of Internal Rate Return

    A firm is evaluating a proposal

    costing . 1,00,000 and having

    annual inflows of.25,000

    occurring at the end of each of

    next six years. There is no

    salvage value.

    Step 3.

    find out the exact IRR by

    interpolating between 12% and

    13%.

    It may be noted that IRR is the rate

    of discount at which the NPV is

    zero.

    At 12%, the NPV is .2,775 and at

    13% .-50.

    Therefore , the rate at which the

    NPV is zero will be higher than 12%but less then 13%.

    This rate, at which NPV is Zero may

    be found with the help of

    interpolation technique.

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    Calculation of Internal Rate Return

    A firm is evaluating a proposal

    costing . 1,00,000 and having

    annual inflows of.25,000

    occurring at the end of each of

    next six years. There is no

    salvage value.

    .Step 3.

    The formula using the interpolation

    method is as follows:

    IRR = L

    ()

    Where ,L =Lower discount rate, at which NPV ispositive.

    H = Higher discount rate, at which NPV isnegative.

    A = NPV at lower discount rate, L.

    B = NPV at higher discount rate, H.

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    Calculation of Internal Rate Return

    A firm is evaluating a proposalcosting . 1,00,000 and having

    annual inflows of.25,000

    occurring at the end of each of

    next six years. There is no

    salvage value.

    .Step 3.By interpolating difference of 1% i.e.,

    ( 13%-12%), over NPV difference of

    .2,825 i.e., [.2,775- (-50)],

    IRR = 12%.,77

    (,7(.)

    13% 12%

    IRR = 12.98%

    So, the IRR of the project is 12.98%.

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    Calculation of Internal Rate Return

    When future cash flows are not equal:

    In this case when the project is expected to generate uneven

    stream of cash flows, the calculation of the IRR is complicated.

    In order to minimize the number of calculation one can start by

    guessing the IRR in either of the two ways.

    a) If the cash inflows apparent in a broader sense, an annuity,

    then the technique explained as above can be applied.

    b) If there is no apparent pattern of annuity in the cash inflows

    then weighted average cash inflows can be used as follows :

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    Calculation of Internal Rate Return

    Suppose a firm is evaluating aproposal costing .1,60,000 and

    expected to generate cash

    inflows of.40,000, .60,000

    .50,000, .50,000 and

    .40,000 at the end next fiveyears respectively. There is no

    salvage value thereafter .

    In this case, there is an uneven

    stream of cash inflows and the

    IRR can be approximated as

    follows:

    Step1: find out the weighted average

    of cash inflows :

    Note that the weights used are stated nthe reverse order in order to give

    maximum weights to earliest cash flows.

    It may be noted that simple

    (arithmetic)Average can also be used in

    placed of weighted average.

    Year

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    Cash inflows

    40,000

    60,000

    50,000

    50,000

    40,000

    Weigh

    5

    4

    3

    2

    1

    CF x W

    2,00,000

    2,40,000

    1,50,000

    1,00,000

    40,000

    Total 15 7,30,000

    Weighted average = 7,30,000/15=Rs.48,667

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    Calculation of Internal Rate Return

    Suppose a firm is evaluating aproposal costing .1,60,000 and

    expected to generate cash

    inflows of.40,000, .60,000

    .50,000, .50,000 and

    .40,000 at the end next fiveyears respectively. There is no

    salvage value thereafter .

    Step2: Consider the weighted ( Or simple)

    average as the annuity of cash

    inflows and find out the payback

    period. For the above case, the

    payback period is

    .1,60,000/48,667=3.288.

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    Calculation of Internal Rate Return

    Suppose a firm is evaluating aproposal costing .1,60,000 and

    expected to generate cash

    inflows of.40,000, .60,000

    .50,000, .50,000 and

    .40,000 at the end next fiveyears respectively. There is no

    salvage value thereafter .

    Step3: Now, search for a value nearest a

    value 3.288in 5 years row of PVAF

    table.

    The closest figures given in the

    table are at 15% ( 3.352) and at16% (3.274).

    This means that the IRR of the

    proposal is expected to lie between

    15% and 16%.

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    Calculation of Internal Rate Return

    Suppose a firm is evaluating aproposal costing .1,60,000 and

    expected to generate cash

    inflows of.40,000, .60,000

    .50,000, .50,000 and

    .40,000 at the end next fiveyears respectively. There is no

    salvage value thereafter .

    Step4: Find out the NPV of the proposal for

    both of these approximate rates as

    follows:

    Year1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    Cash inflows40,000

    60,000

    50,000

    50,000

    40,000

    PVF(16%)0.862

    0.743

    0.641

    0.552

    0.497

    PV34,480

    44,580

    32,050

    27,600

    19,040

    PVF(15%)0.87

    0.756

    0.658

    0.572

    0.497

    PV34,800

    45,360

    32,900

    28,600

    19,880

    Total 1,57,750 1,61,540

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    Calculation of Internal Rate

    Return Suppose a firm is evaluating a

    proposal costing .1,60,000 and

    expected to generate cash

    inflows of.40,000, .60,000

    .50,000, .50,000 and

    .40,000 at the end next five

    years respectively. There is no

    salvage value thereafter .

    AT16% NPV = .1,57,750- .1,60,000

    = .-2,250

    AT 15% NPV = .161,540,- .1,60,000

    = .1540.

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    Calculation of Internal Rate

    Return Suppose a firm is evaluating a

    proposal costing .1,60,000 andexpected to generate cash inflowsof.40,000, .60,000 .50,000,.50,000 and .40,000 at the endnext five years respectively.There is no salvage valuethereafter .

    Step 5: find out exact IRR by interpolatingbetween 15% and 16%.

    At 15% NPV is.1,540 and at 16% theNPV is . -2,250.

    Therefore . The rate at which NPV is zerowill be more than 15% but less than 16%.

    By interpolating the difference of1% (i.e.,16%-15%) over the NPV difference of.3,790 [i.e., . 2,250-(-1,540)].

    IRR = L+

    () (H-L)

    IRR =15%+,

    ,(,)(16-15)

    =15.40%

    So, The IRR of the project is 15.40%.

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    EVALUATION OF IRR

    Disadvantages It involves tedious calculation

    It produces multiple rates which canbe confusing.

    In evaluating mutually exclusiveproposals, the project with the

    highest IRR would be picked up tothe exclusion of all others. However,in practice, it may not turn out to beone that is the most profitable andconsider with objective of the firmi.e., maximization of the wealth ofshareholders.

    Advantage : It possess the advantage, which

    offered by the NPV criterion such asit consider time value of money,takes into account the total cashand outflows.

    IRR is easier to understand.Business executive and non-technical people understand theconcept of IRR much more readilythat they understand the conceptsof NPV.

    It does not use the concept of the

    required cost of return ( or the costof capital). It self provides a rate ofreturn which is indicative of theprofitability of the proposal. The costof capital enters the calculation lateron.

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    Profitability Index

    Yet another time adjusted capital budgeting technique is profitability

    index (PI) or Benefit-cost ratio (B/C).

    It is similar to the NPV approach.

    The profitability index approach measure the present value of returns

    per rupee invested, while the NPV is based on the difference between

    the present value of future cash inflows and the present value of cash

    outlays.

    A major shortcoming of the NPV method is that, being an absolute

    measures, it is reliable method to evaluate projects requiring different

    initial investment.

    The PI method provides a solution to this kind of problem.

    It is, in other words, a relative measure.

    It may be defined as the ratio which is obtained diving the present

    value of future cash inflows by the present value of cash outlays.

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    Profitability Index

    It may be defined as the ratio which is obtained diving the present

    value of future cash inflows by the present value of cash outlays.

    Symbolically :

    PI =

    This method also known as the B/C ratio because the numerator

    measure benefits and the denominator cost.

    A more appropriate descriptions would be present value index.

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    PI DECISION RULE

    Under PI technique, the decision rule is:

    Accept the projectif its PI is more then 1 and reject the projectproposal if the PI is less than 1.

    However, if the PI is equal to 1, then the firm my be indifferentbecause the present value of inflows is expected tojust equal to the

    outflows.

    In case of ranking of mutually exclusive proposals, the proposal with

    highest positive PI will be given top priority.

    The proposal having PI of less than 1 are likely to be out rightlyrejected.

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    Critical Evaluation

    The PI technique, as already noted is an extension of the NPV

    technique.

    In the NPV technique, the difference between the present value ofinflows and the present value of outflows was yardstick.

    Therefore, the PI as a technique of evaluation of capital budgeting

    proposal has the same merits and shortcoming which the NPV has.

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    Calculation PI

    The initial cash outlay of a project is .100,000 and it can generate cash

    inflow of .40,000, .30,000, .50,000 and 20,000 in year 1 through 4.

    Assume a 10 %of discount. The PV of cash inflows at 10% discount rate is:

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    Calculation PI

    year

    0

    12

    3

    4

    ash flow

    .-100000

    .40000.30000

    .50000

    .20,000

    PVF 10%

    1

    0.9090.826

    0.751

    0.683

    NPV

    .-100000

    .36,360.24,780

    .37,550

    .13,660

    NPV = .12,350

    PI =,,

    ,

    = 1.1235

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    Calculation of PI

    The following mutually exclusively

    projects can be consider:

    Calculate PI and suggest which

    project is be to accept and which

    project has to reject.

    Analysis:

    Project A:

    PI =.,

    .,

    PI =1.33

    ProjectAPI is 1.33

    ParitcularP.V of cash inflows

    Intial outlay

    Project A.20,000

    .15,000

    Project B.8,000

    .5,000

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    Calculation of PI

    The following mutually exclusively

    projects can be consider:

    Calculate PI and suggest which

    project is be to accept and which

    project has to reject.

    Analysis:

    Project B:

    PI =.,

    .,

    PI =1.60

    Project BPI is 1.60

    Project B would be

    accepted.

    ParitcularP.V of cash inflows

    Intial outlay

    Project A.20,000

    .15,000

    Project B.8,000

    .5,000

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    NPV v. PI A comparison

    As far as, the acceptreject decisions is concerned, theboth the NPV and the PI will give the same decision.

    The reasons for this are obvious.

    The PI will be greater than 1 only for that projects which

    has a positive NPV, the project will be acceptable underboth techniques.

    On the other hand, if the PI is equal to 1 then the NPVwould also be 0.

    Similarly, a proposal having PI of less than 1 will alsohave the negative NPV.

    However, a conflict between the NPV and the PI mayarise in case of evaluation of mutually exclusiveproposals.

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    Terminal value

    In the NPV technique, the future cash flows are

    discounted to make them comparable.

    In the TV technique, the future cash flows are first

    compounded at the expected rate of interest for the period

    from their occurrence till the end of the economic life of

    the project.

    The compounded values are then discounted at an

    appropriate discount rate to find out the present value.

    This presents value is compared with the initial outflows

    to find out the suitability of the proposal.

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    Terminal value

    Investopedia explains 'Terminal Value - TV'

    The terminal value of an asset is its anticipated value on a certain date in

    the future.

    It is used in multi-stage discounted cash flow analysis and the study of

    cash flow projections for a several-year period.The perpetuity growth model is used to identify on-going free cash flows.

    The exit or terminal multiple approach assumes the asset will be sold at

    the end of a specified time period, helping investors evaluate risk/reward

    scenarios for the asset. A commonly used value is enterprise

    value/EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation andamortization) or EV/EBITDA.

    An asset's terminal value is a projection that is useful in budget planning,

    and also in evaluating the potential gain of an investment over a specified

    time period.

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    Decision Rule of T.V

    The decisions rule in the TV technique is that:

    Accept the proposal if the present value of the total

    compounded value of all the cash inflows is greater than

    the present value of the cash outflows. Otherwise, reject

    the proposal.

    In case ranking of mutually exclusive proposals, the

    proposal with the highest net present value is assigned

    top priority and the proposal with the lowest net present

    value is assigned the lowest priority.

    However, the project with negative net present value is

    likely to rejected.

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    Calculation of TV

    A firm has an investment

    proposal costing .1,20,000

    with useful economic life of 4

    years over which it is

    expected to generate cashinflows .40,000 at end of

    each of the next 4 years.

    Given the rate of return as

    10% and that the firm canreinvest the cash inflows for

    the remaining period at the

    rate of 8%. Calculate TV.

    Solution :

    year

    1

    2

    3

    4

    cash flows

    .40,000

    .40,000

    .40,000

    .40,000

    Remaining Years

    3

    2

    1

    0

    CVF(8%,n)

    1.26

    1.17

    1.08

    1.00

    C.Values

    50,400

    46,640

    43,200

    40,000

    Total compunded value = 1,80,240

    Compound value of an annuity Re 166

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    Compound value of an annuity Re.1

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    Calculation of TV

    A firm has an investment

    proposal costing .1,20,000

    with useful economic life of 4

    years over which it is

    expected to generate cashinflows .40,000 at end of

    each of the next 4 years.

    Given the rate of return as

    10% and that the firm canreinvest the cash inflows for

    the remaining period at the

    rate of 8%. Calculate TV.

    The amount .1,80,240 is to be

    discounted at 10% (i.e., rate of

    discount) for 4 years to find out its

    present values.

    The PVF(10%, 4 y) is .683.

    So, the present value of.1,80,240is .1,80,240x.683 = .1,23,104.

    This present value can now be

    compared with the initial investment

    of .1,20,000 to find out the net

    present value of .1,23,104.

    So, the project has a net present

    value of .3,104. as per the TV

    technique.

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    Capital Rationing

    You know the meaning of Capital !

    You dont know the meaning ofRationing !

    A fixed portion.

    In economics, rationing is an artificial restriction of

    demand.

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    Capital RationingThe process of selecting the more desirable projectsamong many profitable investment is called capitalrationing.

    Or

    The capital rationing situation refers to the choice ofinvestment proposal under financial constrain in term ofgiven of capital expenditure budget.

    Or

    Capital rationing refers to the selection of the investmentproposal in situation of constraint on availability of capitalfunds, maximize the wealth of the company by selectingthose projects which will maximize overall NPV of theconcern.

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    Capital Rationing

    Capital rationing refers to situation where a company

    cannot undertake all positive NPV projects it has identified

    because of shortage of capital.

    Under this situation, a decision maker is compelled to

    rejects some of the viable projects having positive net

    present value because of shortage of funds.

    It is known as situation involving capital rationing.

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    Capital RationingInvestopedia explains 'Capital Rationing :

    Companies may want to implement capital rationing insituations where past returns of investment were lower thanexpected. For example, suppose ABC Corp. has a cost ofcapital of 10% but that the company has undertaken too manyprojects, many of which are incomplete.

    This causes the company's actual return on investment to dropwell below the 10% level.

    As a result, management decides to place a cap on the numberof new projects by raising the cost of capital for these newprojects to 15%.

    Starting fewer new projects would give the company more timeand resources to complete existing projects.

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    Capital RationingCapital rationing exists if there is a limit on the amount of funds available forinvestment.

    There are two forms of capital rationing: soft rationing and hard rationing.

    Soft Rationing.

    Hard Rationing.

    Soft Rationing exists if businesses themselves, or their senior managers,place limits on the size of the capital budget. Soft rationing limits can berelaxed if added NPV investments are available; financing is provided easilyby financial markets.

    Hard Rationing Hard rationing or limits on the capital budget are set byfinancial markets (investors).With funding constraints, positive NPV projectsare forgone. With hard rationing, the firm must choose projects, to the limitof its financing ability, from among a list of projects with positive NPVs.

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    Capital RationingClassification of projects:

    Divisible projects:Indivisible projects:(i.e. Unable to be divided or

    separated)

    ( i.e. capable of being divided)

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    Capital RationingClassification of projects:

    Divisible projects:

    There are certain projects which can either be taken in full

    or can be taken in parts.

    For example, a building( have 5 floors) can be contrasted

    at a cost of 5 corers. How ever, if the funds are not

    sufficiently available then only a part of building, say only

    2 floors, can be constructed for the time being. But all the

    proposal may not be divided.

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    Capital RationingClassification of projects:

    Indivisible projects:

    There are certain projects proposal which are indivisible.

    These proposal have a feature that either the proposal, as

    a whole, be taken in its totality or not taken at all.

    For example, A proposal to buy a helicopter cannot be

    taken in parts.

    Similarly, a multi stage plant can only be installed fully but

    not in parts.

    There can be many instances of indivisible projects.

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    Capital Rationing

    Another important aspects of capital rationing is that a firmmay face capital rationing for one particular period only i.e.,

    single period capital rationing or may face capital rationing

    for several periods i.e., multiple periods capital rationing

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    Capital Rationing

    Single period capital rationing:

    This is simple type of capital rationing and occurs when afirm faces shortage of funds in particular year only.

    Impliedly, these limited capital funds can finance fewer

    than otherwise available feasible proposal.

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    Capital Rationing

    Multi-Period capital rationing:

    When a firm faces limitation of funds in more than oneperiod then above technique may not be of much help.

    In such case, the firm may have to resort to some sort of

    mathematical programming in order to identify the

    optimum selection of proposals.

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    Calculation of Capital Rationing

    (divisible)

    A company has 7 core available for investment. It has

    evaluated its options and has found that only 4 investment

    projects given below have positive NPV. All these

    investment are divisible. Advise the management which

    investment(s) projects it selects.

    Projects Intial Invesments(crore)

    x 3y 2

    z 2.5

    w 6

    NPV(crore)

    0.60.5

    1.5

    1.8

    PI

    1.21.25

    1.6

    1.3

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    Calculation of Capital Rationing

    Solution :

    Accept the project Z in full and W in part (4,50,000) as it

    will maximize the NPV.

    Ranking of the Projects in Descending Order of Profitabilty Index

    Project and (Rank) Investment outlay (crore) Profitability Index1.50

    1.80

    0.50

    0.60

    NPV (crore)1.60

    1.30

    1.25

    1.20

    2.50

    6.00

    2.003.00

    Z(1)

    W(2)

    Y(3)x(4)

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    Calculation of Capital Rationing

    Indivisible projects:

    Example:A company working against a self-imposed capital rationing constraint of.

    70 corer is trying to decide which of the following investment proposal

    should be undertaken by it. All these investment proposal are invisibleas well as independent. The list of investment along with theinvestment required and the NPV of the projected cash flows aregiven below :

    which investment should u be acquired by the company?

    Project Initial Investment (. Crore) NPV(. Crore)A

    B

    C

    D

    E

    10

    24

    32

    22

    18

    6

    18

    20

    30

    20

    Calculation of Capital Rationing

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    Calculation of Capital Rationing

    Solution:

    NPV from investment D,E B.68 crore with utilisedleaving .6 crore to beinvested in some otherinvestment outlet.

    No other package wouldyield an NPV higher than thisamount.

    The company is an integralpart of selecting optimalinvestment package /set incapital rationing situation.

    Indivisible projects:

    Example: A company working against a self-imposed

    capital rationing constraint of. 70 coreris trying to decide which of the followinginvestment proposal should beundertaken by it. All these investmentproposal are invisible as well as

    independent. The list of investmentalong with the investment required andthe NPV of the projected cash flows aregiven below :

    which investment should u be acquiredby the company?

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    Calculation ofCapital Rationing

    Example:

    Total funds available is .3,00,000. Determine the optimalcombination of projects assuming that the projects are

    divisible.

    Project Required intial investment NPV at the appropriate cost of capitalA

    B

    C

    D

    E

    20,000

    35,000

    16,000

    25,000

    30,000

    1,00,000

    3,00,000

    50,000

    2,00,000

    1,00,000

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    Calculation ofCapital Rationing

    Solution:

    continue.

    Project Required NPV at the

    Intial outlay Appoprite

    (.) ost of the capital ().

    Profitability

    Index

    [(3)/(2)]

    Rank

    [1] [2] [3] [4] [5]

    A

    B

    C

    DE

    1,00,000

    3,00,000

    50,000

    2,00,0001,00,000

    0.2

    0.117

    0.32

    0.1250.3

    20,000

    35,000

    16,000

    25,00030,000

    3

    5

    1

    42

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    Calculation ofCapital Rationing

    *(2,00,000X1/4)

    Therefore, the optimal combination of projects is C,E,A and 1/4thportion of D.

    Rank of Investment Project Required Initial (.)

    1

    2

    3

    4

    C

    E

    A

    1/4th of D

    50,000

    1,00,000

    1,00,000

    50,000

    Total 3,00,000

    Abandonment Evaluation Of Capital

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    Abandonment Evaluation Of Capital

    Budgeting

    Meaning of Abandon:

    To leave thing or place.

    Meaning of abandonment :

    The act of giving something up.

    Abandonment Evaluation Of Capital

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    Abandonment Evaluation Of Capital

    Budgeting

    It quite possible in practice, that though a proposal has

    been evaluated and implemented after a careful analysis

    of all types of risk associated with it, yet at later stage, it

    may be found that the project is no longer economically

    viable even if its economic life is not yet over.

    The firm may be faced with a situation when it is take a

    decision whether to abandon project which has failed

    before the end of its estimated economic life.

    Abandonment Evaluation Of Capital

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    Abandonment Evaluation Of Capital

    Budgeting

    Example:The projected cash flows and the expected net abandonment values for a

    project are given below.

    a) Should a project be abandoned ?if so, when ?Assume that the minimum rate of return expected from the project is 10%.

    b) Will you recommendation be different, id the project, is voluntary in

    nature ? Support your answer.

    .)

    Abandonment Evaluation Of Capital

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    Abandonment Evaluation Of Capital

    Budgeting

    Solution :

    Computation of expected NPV over 4 years of economic life for the project

    Year Cash flows Abdoment value (.) P.V factor @ 10 % P.V of Cash flow (.) P.V of Abandonment value (.)0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    -1,00,000

    35,000

    30,000

    25,000

    20,000

    0

    65,000

    45,000

    20,000

    0

    1

    0.909

    0.826

    0.751

    0.683

    -1,00,000

    31,815

    24,780

    18,775

    13,660

    0

    59,085

    37,170

    15,020

    0

    Total NPV= (10,970)

    Abandonment Evaluation Of Capital

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    Budgeting

    Cont

    Statement Showing Computation of total NPV of the Project at the end of each yearP.v and Total at the end of

    year Praticular 1year 2year 2year

    0 cash flows -1,00,000 -1,00,000 -1,00,000

    1 cash flows 31,815 31815 31,815

    abandonment value 59,085 0 0

    2 cash flows 0 24,780 24,780

    abandonment value 37,170 0

    3 cash flows 0 18,775abandonment value 15,020

    TOTAL -9,100 -6,235 -9,610

    Abandonment Evaluation Of Capital

    B d i

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    Budgeting

    Recommendation :In the view of above comparative statement it may be

    observed that the project should be abandoned since

    there is no positive NPV at the end of any year.

    It should be abandoned at the end of 2 years, where thelosses are the minimal- the total NPV at the end of 2

    years being the highest, viz, (.6,235), where the

    negative value is the least.

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    Impact of inflation in capital budgeting

    What is inflation ?

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    Impact of inflation in capital budgeting

    Inflation refers to a continuousrisein general price level

    which reduces the value of money orpurchasing power

    over a period of time.

    Impact of inflation in capital budgeting

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    Impact of inflation in capital budgeting

    Inflation is the rate of sustained increase in the prices ofgoods and services, measured as a percentage increaseover an annual period.

    When there is an increase in inflation rates it means thatfor each Rupee that you spend you will be able to buy a

    smaller amount of a particular product or service.Inflation means that the value of a Rupee (in terms of

    what it can buy) is not constant.

    This is referred to as the purchasing power of theRupee. When rates of inflation rise there is acorresponding reduction in purchasing power as themoney is able to buy less tangible goods.

    Impact of inflation in capital budgeting

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    Impact of inflation in capital budgeting

    EXAMPLE:Assume that the inflation rate of a particular

    economy is 2% per year. This means that a product thatcurrently costs 2 will cost 2.04 at the same time next

    year. Inflation increases the price and you cant buy the

    same goods with a Rupee as you previously could.

    Impact of inflation in capital budgeting

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    Impact of inflation in capital budgeting

    General inflation, i.e., the changes in price of the various

    factor which may increase the project cost e.g., wage

    rates, sales prices, material costs , energy costs,

    transportation charges and so on.

    Every attempt should be made to estimate specific

    inflation for each element of the project in a detailed

    manner as feasible.

    The overall estimate based on the RPI are likely to be

    inaccurate and misleading.

    Impact of inflation in capital budgeting

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    Impact of inflation in capital budgeting

    Types of inflation in capital budgeting:

    1. Differential inflation

    2. Synchronized inflation

    Impact of inflation in capital budgeting

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    Impact of inflation in capital budgeting

    Differential inflation :

    differential is where

    costsand revenuechangeat differing

    rates of inflation or

    where the various

    items of cost andrevenue move at

    different rates.

    Synchronized inflation:

    Synchronized inflation

    where the cost andrevenuerise at the

    same rate.

    Impact of inflation in capital budgeting

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    Impact of inflation in capital budgeting

    Types of cash flows :

    Money cash flows.

    Real cash flow.

    Impact of inflation in capital budgeting

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    Money cash flows:The money cash flows are

    those which are expressed inmoney terms.

    These are the actual amount

    expected to arise in future.These cash flows include theeffect of inflation.

    The money cash flows areknown as the nominal cashflows.

    The money cash flows willoccur in terms of thepurchasing power of thatperiod in which they occur.

    Real Cash Flows: The real cash flows are those

    cash flows which have beenexpressed in terms of realvalues i.e., these areexpressed in term of constantprices.

    So these cash flows excludethe effect of inflation.

    It May be noted that the realcash flows are not necessarily

    equal to the present valuesof money cash flows.

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    Impact of inflation in capital budgeting

    The money cash flows and the real cash flows differ onlybecause of existence on inflation.

    Is there is no inflation then the money cash flows are just

    equal to the real cash flows.

    If there is inflation, the real cash flows can be derived bydiscounting the future money cash flows at the inflation rate.

    Impact of inflation in capital budgeting

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    Impact of inflation in capital budgeting

    The relationship between nominal and real discount rate canbe expressed as:

    Nominal Discount Rate = (1+Real discount Rate) (1+inflation rate) -1

    Real discount Rate =+

    (+ )1

    Impact of inflation in capital budgeting

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    Impact of inflation in capital budgeting

    A corporate firmsmanagement policy is toearn a real rate of return(r) of10% on new projects.

    It is expected that theinflation rate (i) during theproposed projects life is6% per year.

    Determine the nominal

    discount rate (n) whichshould be used by the firmto determine the presentvalue of the project.

    Solution:

    Nominal rate (n) = (1+r)(1+i)-1

    =(1+0.10)(1+0.06)-1

    =(1.1)(1.06)-1

    = 1.166-1= 0.166

    = 16.6%

    Impact of inflation in capital budgeting

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    Impact of inflation in capital budgeting

    Sagar industries employ 15% asnominal required rate of returnto evaluate its new investmentprojects.

    In the recent meeting of itsboard of directors, it has beendecided to protect the interestof shareholder againstpurchasing power loss due toinflation.

    The expected inflation rate inthe economy is 6%.

    Determine the real discountrate to be employed now bySagar industries

    Solution:

    Real rate(r) =+

    (+) 1

    =

    +.

    (+.) 1

    =(.)

    (.) 1

    =1.0849 1

    =.0849

    =8.49%

    Impact of inflation in capital budgeting

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    Impact of inflation in capital budgeting

    A new machine is expected thefollowing set of incremental CFATduring its 5 years economic usefullife.

    The rate ofinflation during theperiod is expected to be 8% and the

    projects cost of capital in real termswould be 10%.

    Should the machine be purchased ifit cost .25 lakh?

    Solution: Step 1.

    Year CFAT()

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    10,00,000

    12,00,000

    15,00,000

    8,00,000

    5,00,000

    Determination of Real CFAT

    Year CFAT() Inflation factor at 8% Real CFAT()

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    10,00,000

    12,00,000

    15,00,000

    8,00,000

    1/(1.08)=0.926

    1/(1.08)2=0.857

    1/(1.08)3=0.794

    1/(1.08)4=0.735

    1/(1.08)5=0.681

    9,26,000

    10,28,400

    11,91,000

    5,88,000

    3,40,500

    Impact of inflation in capital budgeting

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    Impact of inflation in capital budgeting

    A new machine is expected thefollowing set of incremental CFAT

    during its 5 years economic useful life.

    The rate ofinflation during the period

    is expected to be 8% and the projects

    cost of capital in real terms would be10%.

    Should the machine be purchased if it

    cost .25 lakh?

    Solution: Step 2.

    Recommendation : The machine should

    be purchased as the NPV is positive.

    Year CFAT()

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    10,00,000

    12,00,000

    15,00,000

    8,00,000

    5,00,000

    Determination of NPV using real Rate of Discount

    1

    Year

    2

    3

    4

    5

    Real CFAT()

    9,26,000

    10,28,400

    11,91,000

    5,88,000

    3,40,500

    Discount factor at 10%

    0.909

    0.826

    0.751

    0.683

    0.621

    Total PV()

    8,41,734

    8,49,458

    8,94,441

    4,01,604

    2,11,450

    Total present value ()3198687

    Less : Cash outflows ()25,00,000

    Net present value ()6,98,687

    107

    Impact of inflation in capital budgeting

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    A company is considering a cost saving project. Thisinvolves purchasing a machine costing .7,000. which will

    result in annual saving on wage costs .1,000 and on

    material cost of.400.the following forecast are made of

    the rates of inflation each year for the next 5 years:Wages costs10%,

    Material costs 5%

    General prices 6%

    The cost of capital of the company, in monetary terms, is15%.Evaluate the projects, assume that the machine has

    life of 5 years and no scrap value.

    p p g g

    d

    108

    I t f i fl ti i it l b d ti

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    d

    Solution:

    Analysis : Since present value of cost of project exceeds the cost of savings from it andhence it is not suggested to purchase the machine.

    Year1

    23

    4

    5

    Labour cost saving( ) Material Cost Saving( ) Total saving( ) DCF @15% Present Value ( )

    100(1.1) = 1,210

    100(1.1)= 1,331

    100(1.1)=1,100

    100(1.1)= 1,464

    100(1.1)= 1,610

    400(1.05)=420

    400(1.05) = 441

    400(1.05)= 463

    400(1.05)= 486

    400(1.05)= 510

    1,520

    1,651

    1,794

    1,950

    2,120

    0.87

    0.756

    0.658

    0.572

    0.497

    1,322

    1,255

    1,184

    1,112

    1,060

    Present value of total saving 5,933

    Less: initial cash outflows 7,000

    Net present value ( negative) -1,067

    Calculation of NET Present Value

    Impact of inflation in capital budgeting

    Ri k E l ti i C it l B d ti

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    Risk Evaluation in Capital Budgeting

    Probability Analysis .

    Certainty Equivalent Method.

    Sensitivity Technique .

    Standard Deviation Method

    Co-efficient Of Variation Method

    Decision Tree Analysis

    Ri k E l ti i C it l B d ti

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    Risk Evaluation in Capital Budgeting

    Probability Analysis :A probability technique is the relative frequency with which

    an event may occur in the future.

    When future estimates of cash inflows have different

    probabilities the expected monetary values may becomputed by multiplying cash inflows with the probability

    assigned.

    The monetary values of the inflows may further be

    discounted to find out the present values.The projects that gives higher net present value may be

    accepted.

    Ri k E l ti i C it l B d ti

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    Risk Evaluation in Capital Budgeting

    Example :Two mutually exclusive investment proposals are being

    considered. The following information is available.

    Assuming cost of capital at 10%, advise the selection of the

    project.

    Project X() Project Y()

    Cost ()6,000 ()6,000

    Cash Inflows

    Year () Probability () Probability

    1

    2

    3

    4,000

    8000

    12,000

    0.2

    0.6

    0.2

    8,000

    9,000

    9,000

    0.2

    0.6

    0.2

    Ri k E l ti i C it l B d ti

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    Risk Evaluation in Capital Budgeting

    Solution : Project XCalutation of Net Present Value of the Two Projects

    Year P.V.F @10% C.I () Probability Monetary value P.V()

    12

    3

    0.9090.826

    0.751

    4,0008,000

    12,000

    0.200.60

    0.20

    8004,800

    2,400

    7273,965

    1,802

    Total Present Value 6,494

    Less: Cost of Investment 6,000

    Net Present Value 494

    Risk E al ation in Capital B dgeting

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    Risk Evaluation in Capital Budgeting

    Solution : Project YCalutation of Net Present Value of the Two Projects

    Year P.V.F @10% C.I () Probability Monetary value P.V()

    12

    3

    0.9090.826

    0.751

    0.200.60

    0.20

    7,0008,000

    9,000

    1,4004,800

    1,800

    1,2733,965

    1,352

    Total Present Value 6,590

    Less: Cost of Investment 6,000

    Net Present Value 590

    Risk Evaluation in Capital Budgeting

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    Risk Evaluation in Capital Budgeting

    Solution : Project YCalutation of Net Present Value of the Two Projects

    Year P.V.F @10% C.I () Probability Monetary value P.V()

    12

    3

    0.9090.826

    0.751

    0.200.60

    0.20

    7,0008,000

    9,000

    1,4004,800

    1,800

    1,2733,965

    1,352

    Total Present Value 6,590

    Less: Cost of Investment 6,000

    Net Present Value 590

    Risk Evaluation in Capital Budgeting

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    Risk Evaluation in Capital Budgeting

    DECISION TREE ANALYSIS :Quit often a firm may have to take a sequential decision i.e., the

    present decision is affected by the decisions taken in the past or

    it affects the future decision of the same firm

    In the capital budgeting the evaluation of a project frequentlyrequires a sequential decision making process where the accept

    or reject decision made in several stages.

    Instead of making decision once for all, it is broken up into

    several parts and stages.

    At each stage there may be more then one option available andthe firm may have to decide every time that which option is to be

    taken for.

    Risk Evaluation in Capital Budgeting

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    Risk Evaluation in Capital Budgeting

    In modern business there are complex investmentdecisions which involve a sequence of decisions over time.

    Such sequential decisions can be handled by plotting

    decisions tree.

    A decision tree is graphic representation of the relationshipbetween a present decision and future event, future

    decision and their consequence,

    The sequence of events is mapped out over time in format

    resembling branches of a tree and hence the analysis isknown as decision tree analysis .

    Risk Evaluation in Capital Budgeting

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    Risk Evaluation in Capital BudgetingMr. wise is considering an investment proposal of. 20,000. the expected

    returns during the life of the investment are as under.

    Using 10% as the cost capital, advise about the acceptability of the project.

    Year 1

    Event

    1

    23

    Cash flows ()

    8,000

    12,00010,000

    Probability

    0.3

    0.50.2

    Year 2

    Cash flows in year 1 are

    .8,000 .12,000 .10,000

    Event

    1

    2

    3

    C.I ()

    15,00020,000

    25,000

    Prob

    0.20.6

    0.2

    C.I ()

    20,00030,000

    40,000

    Prob

    0.10.8

    0.1

    C.I

    25,00040,000

    60,000

    Prob

    0.20.5

    0.3

    118

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    Calculation of Net Present Value of Cash Inflows

    AlternativesCash inflows

    Year I () Year II ()Discount factor 10%

    Year I Year IIPresent Values

    Year I () Year II ()

    Total ()Net Present

    Value ()

    a) (i) 8,000 15,000 0.909 0.826 7,272 12,390 19,662 -338

    (ii) 8,000 20,000 0.909 0.826 7,272 16,520 23,792 3,792(iii)

    b)(i)

    (ii)

    (iii)

    c) (i) (ii)

    (iii)

    8,000 25,000 0.909 0.826 7,272 20,650 27,922 7,922

    12,000 20,000 0.909 0.826 10,908 16,520 24,428 7,428

    12,000 30,000 0.909 0.826 10,908 24,780 35,688 15,688

    12,000 40,000 0.909 0.826 10,908 33,040 43,948 23,948

    10,000 25,000

    0.909

    0.909

    0.909

    0.826

    0.826

    0.826

    9,090

    9,090

    9,090 20,650

    33,040

    49,560

    29,740

    42,130

    58,650

    9,740

    22,130

    38,650

    10,000

    10,000

    40,000

    60,000

    119

    Decision Tree Analysis

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    Cash

    outflow

    .20,000

    .8,000

    .12,000

    .10,000

    1

    Year 0

    2

    YearI ProbC.I ()

    Year II ProbC.I ()

    3 4

    N.P.Vof inflow()

    5

    JointProbability

    6 = 4x5

    ExpectedN.P.V ()

    15,000

    20,000

    25,000

    20,000

    30,000

    40,000

    25,000

    40,000

    60,000

    -338

    3,792

    7,9227,428

    15,688

    23,948

    9,740

    22,130

    38,650

    0.06

    0.18

    0.06

    0.05

    0.4

    0.05

    0.04

    0.1

    0.06

    -20.28

    682.56

    475.32371.4

    6,275.20

    1,197.40

    389.60

    221.30

    2,319.00

    Total : 1 11,911.50

    .3

    .5

    .2

    .2

    .6

    .2

    .1

    .8

    .1

    .2

    .5

    .3

    RISK ADJUSTED DISCOUNT RATE

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    RISK ADJUSTED DISCOUNT RATE

    The simplest method of accounting for risk in capital

    budgeting is to increase the cut-off rate or discount factor

    by certain percentage on account of risk.

    The project which are more risky and which have greater

    variability in expected returns should be discounted at

    higher rate as compared to the projects which are less

    risky and expected to have lesser variability in returns.

    RISK ADJUSTED DISCOUNT RATE

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    RISK ADJUSTED DISCOUNT RATE

    Beta company Ltd. Is considering the purchase a new investment .Two alternative investment are available (A & B ) each costing

    . 1,00,000.Cash inflows are expected to be as follows :

    The company has a great return on capital of 10%. Risk premiumrates are 2% and 8% respectively for investment A & B.

    Which investment should be preferred?

    Cash flows

    RISK ADJUSTED DISCOUNT RATE

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    RISK ADJUSTED DISCOUNT RATE

    Solution :

    The profitability of the investment can be compared on the basis of net

    present values cash inflows adjusted for risk premium rates as follows:

    Years

    1

    2

    3

    4

    Discount factor @

    10%+2%=12%

    0.893

    0.797

    0.712

    0.635

    Cash

    Inflows ()

    40,000

    35,000

    25,000

    20,000

    Present

    Value ()

    35,720

    27,895

    17,800

    12,700

    Total : 94,115

    Investment A

    Net Present Value .94,115-1,00,000 = (5,885)

    RISK ADJUSTED DISCOUNT RATE

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    As at even higher discount rate B gives a higher net present value,

    investment B should be preferred.

    Years

    1

    2

    34

    Cash

    Inflows ()

    Present

    Value ()

    Discount factor @

    10%+8%= 18%

    0.847

    0.718

    0.6090.516

    50,000

    40,000

    30,00030,000

    Total : 1,04,820

    42,350

    28,720

    18,27015,480

    Investment B

    Net Present Value .1,04,820-1,00,000 = 4,820

    SENSITIVITY TECHNIQUE

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    SENSITIVITY TECHNIQUE

    SENSITIVITY TECHNIQUE :Where cash inflows are very sensitive under different

    circumstance, more than one forecast of the future cash inflowsmay be made.

    These inflows may be regarded as Optimistic, Most likely and

    Pessimistic.further cash inflows may be discounted to find out the net

    present values under these three different situations.

    If the net present values under the three situation differ widely itimplies that there three different situations.

    If the net present values under the three situation differ widely itimplies that there is a great risk in the project and the investorsdecisions to accept or reject a project will depends upon his riskbearing abilities.

    SENSITIVITY TECHNIQUE

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    SENSITIVITY TECHNIQUE

    Example : Mr. risky is considering two mutually exclusive projects A and B.You are required to advise him about the acceptability of the projects from

    the following information.

    Project A Project B

    Cost of the investment 50,000 50,000forcast Cash Inflows per annum for 5 years

    Optimistic

    Most Likely

    Pessimistic

    30,000

    20,000

    15,000

    50,000

    40,000

    20,000

    (The cu-off rate may be assumed to be 15%)

    SENSITIVITY TECHNIQUE

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    S S C QU

    The net present value as calculated above indicate that Project B is morerisky as compared to Project A. But at the same time during favorable

    conditions, it is more profitable also. The acceptability of the project will

    depend upon Mr. Riskys attitude towards risk.

    If he could afford to take higher risk, project b may be more profitable.

    Calucation of Net present value of Cash Inflows at a Discount

    Rate of 15% ( annuity of Re. 1 for 5 years)

    Annual Discount P.V N.P.V

    cash flows . factor 15% . .

    Project A Project B

    Optimistic

    Most likely

    Pessimistic

    Annual Discount P.V N.P.V

    cash flows . factor 15% . .

    30,000

    20,000

    15,000

    3.3522

    3.3522

    3.3522

    1,00,566

    67,014

    50,283

    50,566

    17,044

    283

    40,000

    20,000

    5,000

    3.3522

    3.3522

    3.3522

    1,34,088

    67,044

    16,761

    84,088

    17,044

    -33,239

    Conflict between

    NPV

    &

    IRR

    results

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    In case of mutually exclusive investment proposals, which

    compete with one another in such a manner that acceptance

    of one automatically excludes the acceptance of the other.

    The NPV method and IRR method may give contradictory

    result.

    The NPV may suggest acceptance of one proposal where

    as, the internal rate of return may favor another proposal.

    Conflict between

    NPV

    &

    IRR

    results

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    Such conflict in ranking may be caused by any one or more

    of the following problems:

    I. Significant difference in the size ( amount ) of cash outlays

    of the various proposal under consideration.

    II. Problem of difference in the cash flows patterns or timings

    of the various proposals.

    III. Difference in service life or unequal expected lives of the

    projects.

    In such case, while choosing among mutually exclusiveprojects, one should always select the project giving the

    largest positive net present value using appropriate cost of

    capital or predetermined cut off rate.

    Conflict between

    NPV

    &

    IRR

    results

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    The reason for the same lies in the fact that the objective of

    an firm is to maximize shareholders wealth and the project

    with the largest NPV has the most beneficial effect on shares

    prices and shareholders wealth.

    Thus, the NPV method is more reliable as compared to the

    IRR method in ranking the mutually exclusive projects.

    In fact, NPV is the best operational criterion for ranking

    mutually exclusive investment proposals.

    Conflict between

    NPV

    &

    IRR

    results

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    A firm whose cost of capital is 10% is considering two

    mutually exclusive projects A and B, the cash flows of which

    are as below:

    Suggest which project should be taken up usingI. Net Present Value Method, and

    II. The Internal Rate of return Method.

    Year Project A Project B

    . .0 -50,000 -80,000

    1 62,500 96,170

    Conflict between

    NPV

    &

    IRR

    results

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    Solution :

    (I) Calucation of Net PresentValue (NPV)

    Project A Project B

    YEAR P.V. factor Cash flows (.) P.V () Cash flows (.) P.V ()

    01

    10.909

    -50,00062,500

    -50,00056,812

    -80,00096,170

    -80,00087,418

    Net Present Value (NPV) 6812 7418

    (II)Calculation of Internal Rate of ReturnProject A Project B

    Conflict between

    NPV

    &

    IRR

    results

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    Suggestion :According to the NPV Method, investment in project B is

    better because of its Higher positive NPV; but according to

    the IRR method project A is better investment because of

    higher internal rate of Return.Thus, there is a conflict in ranking of the two mutually

    exclusive proposal according to the two methods.

    Under these circumstances, we would suggest to take up

    Project B which give a higher Net present Value because indoing so the firm will be able to maximize the wealth of the

    shareholders.

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    Spontaneous sources :

    The spontaneous sources are those sources which occurand result from the normal business activities.

    In the usual course of business operations, a firm might be

    getting goods and services for which payments are to bemade at a later stage. i.e., with a time gap.

    To extent, payment is delayed, the funds are available tofirm.

    These sources are generally unsecured and vary in line withthe change in sales level.

    There are also known as trade liabilities or simply as currentliabilities. cont

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    Two important spontaneous sources of short term financing

    are:

    i. Trade credit.

    ii. Accrued expenses .

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    Trade credit :

    When firm buys goods from another, it may bot be required

    to pay for these goods immediately.

    During this period, before the payment become due, thepurchaser has a debt outstanding to the supplier.

    This debt is recorded in the buyers balance sheet as

    creditors; and the corresponding account for the supplier is

    that of debtors.

    The trade credit may be define as the credit available in

    connection with goods and services purchased for resale.

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    Its the resale which distinguish trade credit from other

    sources.

    For example :

    A fixed asset may be purchased on credit, but since these

    are to be used in the production process rather then for

    resale, such credit purchase of fixed asset is not called the

    trade credit. The credit extended in connection with the

    goods purchased for resale by a retailer or a wholesaler of

    raw material used by manufacturer in producing its productsis called the trade credit.

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    Accrued expenses :

    oThe accrued expenses refer to the services availed by the

    firm, but the payment for which has not yet been made.

    o It is builtin and an automatic source of finance as most of

    the service i.e., labor etc. are paid only at the end of a

    period.

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    Credit terms:

    The credit term refer to the set of conditions on which a sellersells goods and services to the buyer and in particular, onwhich the buyer has to make the payment to the seller. These

    includeThe size of the cash discount, if any from the net invoice

    price which is given for making cash payment within aspecified period.

    The period within which payment must be made if the cashdiscount Is to be availed.

    The maximum period that can elapse before payment of netinvoice price should be made if the discount is not taken.

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    Credit terms:

    For example:

    A credit term may be expressed as 2/10net 30.

    It means that a cash discount of2% is allowed if the invoiceamount is paid within 10daysotherwise full payment must be

    paid within 30 days.

    In simple terms :

    2 is percentage of discount.10is number days to avail discount.

    30is number days allowed by supplier .

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    Firm buys .100goods

    Cash discountperiod ends

    Credit periodends

    Cost of additional 20 days . 2Credit period

    beginsPay

    .100

    June 10June1

    OR

    June 30

    Pay

    .98

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    Cost of trade credit or Annual Interest Rate :

    Cost of Trade Credit =

    100Where :

    d= % Cash discount

    n = Net period in days

    p = Discount period in days

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    What is the annual percentage interest cost associated withthe following credit terms?

    I. 2/10 net 50

    II. 2/15 net 40

    III. 1/15 net 30

    IV. 1/10 net 30

    Assume that the firm does not avail of the cash discount but

    pay on the last day of net period. Assume 360 days to a year.

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    Question :

    I. 2/20 net 50

    II. 2/15 net 40

    III. 1 /15 net 30

    Solution:

    I. cost =.

    .

    = 24.5%

    II. cost =.

    .

    = 29.4%

    III. cost =.

    .

    = 24.2%

    144

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    Question :

    iv) 1/10 net 30

    Solution:

    iv) cost =.

    .

    = 18.2%

    145

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