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CAPITAL BUDGETING
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Capital Budgeting
Capital budgeting decisions are related to the allocation of
funds to different long assets.
Broadly speaking, the capital budgeting decisions a
decisions situation where the lump sum funds are
invested in the initial stages of projects and the returns
are expected over a long period.
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Significance of capital budgeting
Decisions
Long-term Effects.
Substantial commitments.
Irreversible decisions.
Affect the capacity and strength to compete
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Types of Capital Budgeting Decisions
Every capital budgeting decisions is a specific
decisions in the given situation, for a given firm and with
given parameters and therefore, an almost infinite number
of types or forms of capital budgeting decisions may occur.
Even if the same decision being considered by the
same firm at two different points of time, the decisions
consideration may changes as a result of changes in any of
the variable.
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Types of Capital Budgeting Decisions
However, the different types of capital budgeting decision
undertaken from time to time by different firm can be classified
on a number of dimension. In general, the projects can be
categorized as follows:
From the point of view of firms existence:
New firm.
Existing firm :
Replacement and modernization.
Expansion.
Diversification.
Contingent decisions.
Mutually exclusive investment.
Independent investment.
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Types of Capital Budgeting Decisions
However, the different types of capital budgeting decisionundertaken from time to time by different firm can be classified on anumber of dimension. In general, the projects can be categorized asfollows:
From the point of view of firms existence:New firm.Existing firm : Replacement and modernization.
Expansion.
Diversification.
Contingent decisions.
From the point view of decision situation: Mutually exclusive investment.
Independent investment.
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Evaluation Criteria
Non-discounted Cash Flow Criteria
Payback Period (PB)
Discounted payback period (DPB)
Accounting Rate of Return (ARR)
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Criteria
Net Present Value (NPV)
Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
Profitability Index (PI)
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PAYBACK
Payback is the number of years required to recover the
original cash outlay invested in a project.
If the project generates constant annual cash inflows, the
payback period can be computed by dividing cash outlay
by the annual cash inflow. That is:
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Example
Assume that a project requires an outlay of Rs 50,000
and yields annual cash inflow of Rs 12,500 for 7 years.
The payback period for the project is:
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PAYBACK
Unequal cash flows : In case of unequal cash inflows, thepayback period can be found out by adding up the cash
inflows until the total is equal to the initial cash outlay.
Suppose that a project requires a cash outlay of Rs
20,000, and generates cash inflows of Rs 8,000; Rs
7,000; Rs 4,000; and Rs 3,000 during the next 4 years.
What is the projects payback?
3 years + 12 (1,000/3,000) months
3 years + 4 months
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Acceptance Rule
The project would be accepted if its payback period is
less than the maximum or standard payback period set by
management.
As a ranking method, it gives highest ranking to the
project, which has the shortest payback period and lowest
ranking to the project with highest payback period.
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DISCOUNTED PAYBACK PERIOD
The discounted payback period is the number of periods
taken in recovering the investment outlay on the present
value basis.
The discounted payback period still fails to consider the
cash flows occurring after the payback period.
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Evaluation of Payback
Certain virtues:
Simplicity
Cost effective
Short-term effects
Risk shield
Liquidity
Serious limitations:
Cash flows after payback
Cash flows ignored
Cash flow patterns
Administrative difficulties
Inconsistent with shareholder value
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Evaluation of Payback
Cash flows after pay back :
Cash flows (Rs)
Project C0 C1 C2 C3 Payback NPV
X -4,000 0 4000 2000 2 years 806
Y -4000 2000 2000 0 2 years -530
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Evaluation of Payback
Cash flows ignored :
Cash flows (Rs.)
Project C0 C1 C2 C3 Payback NPV
C -4,000 0 4000 2000 2 years 806
D -4000 2000 2000 0 2 years -530
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Evaluation of Payback
Cash flows patterns:
Cash flows (Rs.)
Project C0 C1 C2 C3 Payback NPV
P -5,000 3000 2000 2000 2 years 881X -5000 2000 3000 2000 2 years 798
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Accounting Rate of Return (ARR)
The accounting rate of return is also known as return oninvestment or return on capital employed.
Method employing the normal accounting technique tomeasure the increase in profit expected to result from an
investment by expressing the net accounting profit arisingfrom the investment as a percentage of that capitalinvestment.
Accounting rate of return= Average annual profit after tax
average or initial investment
Average investment = Initial investment +salvage value
2
100
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ACCOUNTING RATE OF RETURN
METHOD The accounting rate of return is the ratio of the average
after-tax profit divided by the average investment. Theaverage investment would be equal to half of the originalinvestment if it were depreciated constantly.
Or
A variation of the ARR method is to divide averageearnings after taxes by the original cost of the projectinstead of the average cost.
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Example
A project will cost Rs 40,000. Its stream of earnings before
depreciation, interest and taxes (EBDIT) during first year
through five years is expected to be Rs 10,000, Rs
12,000, Rs 14,000, Rs 16,000 and Rs 20,000. Assume a
50 per cent tax rate and depreciation on straight-linebasis.
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Cacualtion of Accounting Rate of Return
Period 1 2 3 4 5 Average (RS)
Earning Before Depreciation, Interest and Taxes ( EBDIT) 10,000Rs. 12,000Rs. 14,000Rs. 16,000Rs. 20,000Rs. 14,400Rs.
Depreciation 8,000Rs. 8,000Rs. 8,000Rs. 8,000Rs. 8,000Rs. 8,000Rs.
Earning before , Interest and Taxes ( EBIT) 2,000Rs. 4,000Rs. 6,000Rs. 8,000Rs. 12,000Rs. 6,400Rs.Taxes at 50% 1,000Rs. 2,000Rs. 3,000Rs. 4,000Rs. 6,000Rs. 3,200Rs.
Earning before interest and after taxes [EBIT(1-T)] 1,000Rs. 2,000Rs. 3,000Rs. 4,000Rs. 6,000Rs. 3,200Rs.
Book value of inves tment
Begning
Ending
Average
40,000Rs.
32,000Rs.
36,000Rs.
32,000Rs.
24,000Rs.
28,000Rs.
24,000Rs.
16,000Rs.
20,000Rs.
16,000Rs.
8,000Rs.
12,000Rs.
8,000Rs.
Nil
4,000Rs. 20,000Rs.
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Calculation of Accounting Rate of Return
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Calculation of Accounting Rate of Return
Consider the following investment opportunity:
A machine is available for purchase at a cost of Rs.80,000.
We expect it to have a life of five years and to have a Scarp value of Rs.10,000 at the end of
the five years period. We have estimated that it will generate additional profits over its life as
follows:
These estimate are of profit before depreciation.
Your required to calculate the return on capital employed
Year 1 2 3 4 5
Amount (RS) 20,000 40,000 30,000 15,000 5,000
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Solution
Total profit before depreciation over the life of the machine = Rs1,10,000
Avergare profit p.a = Rs. 1,10,000/5 years = Rs.22,000
Total depricaition over the life of the machine (Rs. 80,000 - Rs. 10,000 =RS.70,000
Average depreciation p.a = Rs.70,000/5 years = Rs.14,000
Average annual profit after depreciation = Rs. 22,000 - Rs. 14,000 =Rs.8,000
Original investment required = Rs.80,000
Accounting rate of return = ( Rs.8000/Rs.80,000)X 100 = 10%
Average investment = (Rs.80,000 + Rs.10,000)/2 = Rs. 45,000
Accounting rate of return = ( Rs.8,000/Rs.45000)X100 = 17.78%
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Calculation of Accounting Rate of Return
X Ltd considering the purchase of a machine. Two machines are
available E and F. the cost of each machine is Rs.60,000. Eachmachine has an expected life of years. Net profit before tax andafter depreciation during the expected life of the machine are givenbelow.
Following the method of average return on average investmentascertain the which of the alternative will be more profitable. Theaverage rate of tax may be taken at 50%.
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Calculation of Accounting Rate of Return25
Solution
Year Machine E Machine F
1
2
3
4
5
Total
PBT(Rs)
15000
20000
25000
15000
10000
85000
Tax @ 50%(RS)
7500
10000
12500
7500
5000
42500
PAT(Rs)
7500
10000
12500
7500
5000
42500
PBT(Rs)
5000
10000
20000
30000
20000
90000
Tax @50% (Rs)
2500
5000
10000
15000
10000
45000
PAT(Rs)
2500
5000
10000
15000
10000
45000
Statement of Profitablity
42500x1/5=Rs.85,000 45000x1/5 = Rs.9,000
Machine E Machine F
Avergae Profit After Tax:
8500/30,000x100 = 28.33%
Avergae Investment :
Average return on Average investment:60,000x1/2 = Rs.30,000 60,000x1/2 = Rs.30,000
9000/30,000x100=30%
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Acceptance Rule
This method will accept all those projects whose ARR is
higher than the minimum rate established by the
management and reject those projects which have ARR
less than the minimum rate.
This method would rank a project as number one if it has
highest ARR and lowest rank would be assigned to the
project with lowest ARR.
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Evaluation of ARR Method
The ARR method may claim some merits
Simplicity
Accounting data
Accounting profitabilitySerious shortcomings
Cash flows ignored
Time value ignored
Arbitrary cut-off
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Discounted cash flows (DCF)/Time
Adjusted (TA) Techniques
The distinguishing character of the DCF capital budgeting
techniques is that they take into consideration the time
value of money while evaluating the cost and benefit of a
project.
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Net Present Value Method
Cash flows of the investment project should be forecasted
based on realistic assumptions.
Appropriate discount rate should be identified to discount
the forecasted cash flows.
Present value of cash flows should be calculated using
the opportunity cost of capital as the discount rate.
Net present value should be found out by subtracting
present value of cash outflows from present value of cash
inflows. The project should be accepted if NPV is positive
(i.e., NPV > 0).
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Net Present Value Method
The formula for the net present value can be written as
follows:
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n
t
t
t
n
n
Ck
C
Ck
C
k
C
k
C
k
C
1
0
03
3
2
21
)1(NPV
)1()1()1()1(NPV
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Calculating Net Present Value
Assume that Project X costs Rs 2,500 now and is
expected to generate year-end cash inflows of Rs.900,
Rs.800, Rs.700, Rs.600 and Rs.500 in years 1 through 5.
The opportunity cost of the capital may be assumed to be
10 per cent.
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Calculating Net Present Value
3
Years
0
1
2
3
4
5
Cash Inflows(Rs)
2500
900
800
700
600
500
Discount factor 10%
1
0.909
0.826
0.751
0.683
0.62
Present value
-2500
818
661
526
410
310
Project NPV=225
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Why is NPV Important?
Positive net present value of an investment represents
the maximum amount a firm would be ready to pay for
purchasing the opportunity of making investment, or the
amount at which the firm would be willing to sell the right
to invest without being financially worse-off.
The net present value can also be interpreted to
represent the amount the firm could raise at the required
rate of return, in addition to the initial cash outlay, todistribute immediately to its shareholders and by the end
of the projects life, to have paid off all the capital raised
and return on it.
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Acceptance Rule
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Acceptance Rule
NPV is most acceptable investment rule for thefollowing reasons:
Time value
Measure of true profitability
Value-additivity
Shareholder value
Involved cash flow estimation Discount rate difficult to determine
Mutually exclusive projects
Ranking of projects
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Present value of.1
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Internal Rate Return
Internal rate of return ( IRR) is a percentage discount rate used in
capital investment appraisals which brings the cost of a project and its
future cash inflows into equality.
This technique also known as YIELD ON INVESTMENT, marginalefficiency of capital, MARGINAL PRODUCTIVITY OF CAPITAL RATEOF RETURN, TIME ADJUSTED RATE OF RETURNand so on.
It is the rate of return which equates the present value of anticipated
net cash flows with the initial outlay.
The IRR is also defined as the rate at which the present value is zero.
The rate for computing IRR depends on bank lending rate oropportunity cost of funds to invest in which is often called as personal
discounting rate or accounting rate.
The test of profitability of a project is the relationship between the IRR
(%) of the project and the minimum acceptable rate of return (%).
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Calculation of Internal Rate Return
When future cash flows are equal:
In case the proposal has only one outflows in the beginning and
stream of equal cash flow in future, the calculation of IRR is rather
simple.
This can be explained with help of example.
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Calculation of Internal Rate Return
A firm is evaluating a proposalcosting . 1,00,000 and havingannual inflows of.25,000occurring at the end of each ofnext six years. There is no
salvage value. The IRR of theproposal may be calculated asfollows:
Step1:Make an approximate of the IRR on
the basis of cash flows data.
A rough approximation may bemade with reference to the payback period.
The payback period in the givencase is 4 years.
Now, search for a value nearest to4 in the 6 years row of the PVAFtable.
The closet figure are given in rate
12%(4.111) and the rate 13%(3.998).
This mean that the IRR of theproposal is expected to lie between12% and 13%
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Calculation of Internal Rate Return
A firm is evaluating a proposal
costing . 1,00,000 and having
annual inflows of.25,000
occurring at the end of each ofnext six years. There is no
salvage value.
Step2:
In order to make a precise
estimate of the IR, find out the
NPV of the project for boththese rates as follows:
At 12%, NPV =
(25,000PVAF12% 6) -
.100,000
=(.250004.111)-
100,000
= . 2,775.
At 13%, NPV =
(25,000PVAF13%6) -.100,000
=(.250003.998)-
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Calculation of Internal Rate Return
A firm is evaluating a proposal
costing . 1,00,000 and having
annual inflows of.25,000
occurring at the end of each of
next six years. There is no
salvage value.
Step 3.
find out the exact IRR by
interpolating between 12% and
13%.
It may be noted that IRR is the rate
of discount at which the NPV is
zero.
At 12%, the NPV is .2,775 and at
13% .-50.
Therefore , the rate at which the
NPV is zero will be higher than 12%but less then 13%.
This rate, at which NPV is Zero may
be found with the help of
interpolation technique.
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Calculation of Internal Rate Return
A firm is evaluating a proposal
costing . 1,00,000 and having
annual inflows of.25,000
occurring at the end of each of
next six years. There is no
salvage value.
.Step 3.
The formula using the interpolation
method is as follows:
IRR = L
()
Where ,L =Lower discount rate, at which NPV ispositive.
H = Higher discount rate, at which NPV isnegative.
A = NPV at lower discount rate, L.
B = NPV at higher discount rate, H.
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Calculation of Internal Rate Return
A firm is evaluating a proposalcosting . 1,00,000 and having
annual inflows of.25,000
occurring at the end of each of
next six years. There is no
salvage value.
.Step 3.By interpolating difference of 1% i.e.,
( 13%-12%), over NPV difference of
.2,825 i.e., [.2,775- (-50)],
IRR = 12%.,77
(,7(.)
13% 12%
IRR = 12.98%
So, the IRR of the project is 12.98%.
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Calculation of Internal Rate Return
When future cash flows are not equal:
In this case when the project is expected to generate uneven
stream of cash flows, the calculation of the IRR is complicated.
In order to minimize the number of calculation one can start by
guessing the IRR in either of the two ways.
a) If the cash inflows apparent in a broader sense, an annuity,
then the technique explained as above can be applied.
b) If there is no apparent pattern of annuity in the cash inflows
then weighted average cash inflows can be used as follows :
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Calculation of Internal Rate Return
Suppose a firm is evaluating aproposal costing .1,60,000 and
expected to generate cash
inflows of.40,000, .60,000
.50,000, .50,000 and
.40,000 at the end next fiveyears respectively. There is no
salvage value thereafter .
In this case, there is an uneven
stream of cash inflows and the
IRR can be approximated as
follows:
Step1: find out the weighted average
of cash inflows :
Note that the weights used are stated nthe reverse order in order to give
maximum weights to earliest cash flows.
It may be noted that simple
(arithmetic)Average can also be used in
placed of weighted average.
Year
1
2
3
4
5
Cash inflows
40,000
60,000
50,000
50,000
40,000
Weigh
5
4
3
2
1
CF x W
2,00,000
2,40,000
1,50,000
1,00,000
40,000
Total 15 7,30,000
Weighted average = 7,30,000/15=Rs.48,667
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Calculation of Internal Rate Return
Suppose a firm is evaluating aproposal costing .1,60,000 and
expected to generate cash
inflows of.40,000, .60,000
.50,000, .50,000 and
.40,000 at the end next fiveyears respectively. There is no
salvage value thereafter .
Step2: Consider the weighted ( Or simple)
average as the annuity of cash
inflows and find out the payback
period. For the above case, the
payback period is
.1,60,000/48,667=3.288.
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Calculation of Internal Rate Return
Suppose a firm is evaluating aproposal costing .1,60,000 and
expected to generate cash
inflows of.40,000, .60,000
.50,000, .50,000 and
.40,000 at the end next fiveyears respectively. There is no
salvage value thereafter .
Step3: Now, search for a value nearest a
value 3.288in 5 years row of PVAF
table.
The closest figures given in the
table are at 15% ( 3.352) and at16% (3.274).
This means that the IRR of the
proposal is expected to lie between
15% and 16%.
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Calculation of Internal Rate Return
Suppose a firm is evaluating aproposal costing .1,60,000 and
expected to generate cash
inflows of.40,000, .60,000
.50,000, .50,000 and
.40,000 at the end next fiveyears respectively. There is no
salvage value thereafter .
Step4: Find out the NPV of the proposal for
both of these approximate rates as
follows:
Year1
2
3
4
5
Cash inflows40,000
60,000
50,000
50,000
40,000
PVF(16%)0.862
0.743
0.641
0.552
0.497
PV34,480
44,580
32,050
27,600
19,040
PVF(15%)0.87
0.756
0.658
0.572
0.497
PV34,800
45,360
32,900
28,600
19,880
Total 1,57,750 1,61,540
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Calculation of Internal Rate
Return Suppose a firm is evaluating a
proposal costing .1,60,000 and
expected to generate cash
inflows of.40,000, .60,000
.50,000, .50,000 and
.40,000 at the end next five
years respectively. There is no
salvage value thereafter .
AT16% NPV = .1,57,750- .1,60,000
= .-2,250
AT 15% NPV = .161,540,- .1,60,000
= .1540.
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Calculation of Internal Rate
Return Suppose a firm is evaluating a
proposal costing .1,60,000 andexpected to generate cash inflowsof.40,000, .60,000 .50,000,.50,000 and .40,000 at the endnext five years respectively.There is no salvage valuethereafter .
Step 5: find out exact IRR by interpolatingbetween 15% and 16%.
At 15% NPV is.1,540 and at 16% theNPV is . -2,250.
Therefore . The rate at which NPV is zerowill be more than 15% but less than 16%.
By interpolating the difference of1% (i.e.,16%-15%) over the NPV difference of.3,790 [i.e., . 2,250-(-1,540)].
IRR = L+
() (H-L)
IRR =15%+,
,(,)(16-15)
=15.40%
So, The IRR of the project is 15.40%.
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EVALUATION OF IRR
Disadvantages It involves tedious calculation
It produces multiple rates which canbe confusing.
In evaluating mutually exclusiveproposals, the project with the
highest IRR would be picked up tothe exclusion of all others. However,in practice, it may not turn out to beone that is the most profitable andconsider with objective of the firmi.e., maximization of the wealth ofshareholders.
Advantage : It possess the advantage, which
offered by the NPV criterion such asit consider time value of money,takes into account the total cashand outflows.
IRR is easier to understand.Business executive and non-technical people understand theconcept of IRR much more readilythat they understand the conceptsof NPV.
It does not use the concept of the
required cost of return ( or the costof capital). It self provides a rate ofreturn which is indicative of theprofitability of the proposal. The costof capital enters the calculation lateron.
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Profitability Index
Yet another time adjusted capital budgeting technique is profitability
index (PI) or Benefit-cost ratio (B/C).
It is similar to the NPV approach.
The profitability index approach measure the present value of returns
per rupee invested, while the NPV is based on the difference between
the present value of future cash inflows and the present value of cash
outlays.
A major shortcoming of the NPV method is that, being an absolute
measures, it is reliable method to evaluate projects requiring different
initial investment.
The PI method provides a solution to this kind of problem.
It is, in other words, a relative measure.
It may be defined as the ratio which is obtained diving the present
value of future cash inflows by the present value of cash outlays.
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Profitability Index
It may be defined as the ratio which is obtained diving the present
value of future cash inflows by the present value of cash outlays.
Symbolically :
PI =
This method also known as the B/C ratio because the numerator
measure benefits and the denominator cost.
A more appropriate descriptions would be present value index.
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PI DECISION RULE
Under PI technique, the decision rule is:
Accept the projectif its PI is more then 1 and reject the projectproposal if the PI is less than 1.
However, if the PI is equal to 1, then the firm my be indifferentbecause the present value of inflows is expected tojust equal to the
outflows.
In case of ranking of mutually exclusive proposals, the proposal with
highest positive PI will be given top priority.
The proposal having PI of less than 1 are likely to be out rightlyrejected.
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Critical Evaluation
The PI technique, as already noted is an extension of the NPV
technique.
In the NPV technique, the difference between the present value ofinflows and the present value of outflows was yardstick.
Therefore, the PI as a technique of evaluation of capital budgeting
proposal has the same merits and shortcoming which the NPV has.
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Calculation PI
The initial cash outlay of a project is .100,000 and it can generate cash
inflow of .40,000, .30,000, .50,000 and 20,000 in year 1 through 4.
Assume a 10 %of discount. The PV of cash inflows at 10% discount rate is:
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Calculation PI
year
0
12
3
4
ash flow
.-100000
.40000.30000
.50000
.20,000
PVF 10%
1
0.9090.826
0.751
0.683
NPV
.-100000
.36,360.24,780
.37,550
.13,660
NPV = .12,350
PI =,,
,
= 1.1235
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Calculation of PI
The following mutually exclusively
projects can be consider:
Calculate PI and suggest which
project is be to accept and which
project has to reject.
Analysis:
Project A:
PI =.,
.,
PI =1.33
ProjectAPI is 1.33
ParitcularP.V of cash inflows
Intial outlay
Project A.20,000
.15,000
Project B.8,000
.5,000
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Calculation of PI
The following mutually exclusively
projects can be consider:
Calculate PI and suggest which
project is be to accept and which
project has to reject.
Analysis:
Project B:
PI =.,
.,
PI =1.60
Project BPI is 1.60
Project B would be
accepted.
ParitcularP.V of cash inflows
Intial outlay
Project A.20,000
.15,000
Project B.8,000
.5,000
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NPV v. PI A comparison
As far as, the acceptreject decisions is concerned, theboth the NPV and the PI will give the same decision.
The reasons for this are obvious.
The PI will be greater than 1 only for that projects which
has a positive NPV, the project will be acceptable underboth techniques.
On the other hand, if the PI is equal to 1 then the NPVwould also be 0.
Similarly, a proposal having PI of less than 1 will alsohave the negative NPV.
However, a conflict between the NPV and the PI mayarise in case of evaluation of mutually exclusiveproposals.
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Terminal value
In the NPV technique, the future cash flows are
discounted to make them comparable.
In the TV technique, the future cash flows are first
compounded at the expected rate of interest for the period
from their occurrence till the end of the economic life of
the project.
The compounded values are then discounted at an
appropriate discount rate to find out the present value.
This presents value is compared with the initial outflows
to find out the suitability of the proposal.
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Terminal value
Investopedia explains 'Terminal Value - TV'
The terminal value of an asset is its anticipated value on a certain date in
the future.
It is used in multi-stage discounted cash flow analysis and the study of
cash flow projections for a several-year period.The perpetuity growth model is used to identify on-going free cash flows.
The exit or terminal multiple approach assumes the asset will be sold at
the end of a specified time period, helping investors evaluate risk/reward
scenarios for the asset. A commonly used value is enterprise
value/EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation andamortization) or EV/EBITDA.
An asset's terminal value is a projection that is useful in budget planning,
and also in evaluating the potential gain of an investment over a specified
time period.
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Decision Rule of T.V
The decisions rule in the TV technique is that:
Accept the proposal if the present value of the total
compounded value of all the cash inflows is greater than
the present value of the cash outflows. Otherwise, reject
the proposal.
In case ranking of mutually exclusive proposals, the
proposal with the highest net present value is assigned
top priority and the proposal with the lowest net present
value is assigned the lowest priority.
However, the project with negative net present value is
likely to rejected.
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Calculation of TV
A firm has an investment
proposal costing .1,20,000
with useful economic life of 4
years over which it is
expected to generate cashinflows .40,000 at end of
each of the next 4 years.
Given the rate of return as
10% and that the firm canreinvest the cash inflows for
the remaining period at the
rate of 8%. Calculate TV.
Solution :
year
1
2
3
4
cash flows
.40,000
.40,000
.40,000
.40,000
Remaining Years
3
2
1
0
CVF(8%,n)
1.26
1.17
1.08
1.00
C.Values
50,400
46,640
43,200
40,000
Total compunded value = 1,80,240
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Compound value of an annuity Re.1
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Calculation of TV
A firm has an investment
proposal costing .1,20,000
with useful economic life of 4
years over which it is
expected to generate cashinflows .40,000 at end of
each of the next 4 years.
Given the rate of return as
10% and that the firm canreinvest the cash inflows for
the remaining period at the
rate of 8%. Calculate TV.
The amount .1,80,240 is to be
discounted at 10% (i.e., rate of
discount) for 4 years to find out its
present values.
The PVF(10%, 4 y) is .683.
So, the present value of.1,80,240is .1,80,240x.683 = .1,23,104.
This present value can now be
compared with the initial investment
of .1,20,000 to find out the net
present value of .1,23,104.
So, the project has a net present
value of .3,104. as per the TV
technique.
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Capital Rationing
You know the meaning of Capital !
You dont know the meaning ofRationing !
A fixed portion.
In economics, rationing is an artificial restriction of
demand.
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Capital RationingThe process of selecting the more desirable projectsamong many profitable investment is called capitalrationing.
Or
The capital rationing situation refers to the choice ofinvestment proposal under financial constrain in term ofgiven of capital expenditure budget.
Or
Capital rationing refers to the selection of the investmentproposal in situation of constraint on availability of capitalfunds, maximize the wealth of the company by selectingthose projects which will maximize overall NPV of theconcern.
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Capital Rationing
Capital rationing refers to situation where a company
cannot undertake all positive NPV projects it has identified
because of shortage of capital.
Under this situation, a decision maker is compelled to
rejects some of the viable projects having positive net
present value because of shortage of funds.
It is known as situation involving capital rationing.
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Capital RationingInvestopedia explains 'Capital Rationing :
Companies may want to implement capital rationing insituations where past returns of investment were lower thanexpected. For example, suppose ABC Corp. has a cost ofcapital of 10% but that the company has undertaken too manyprojects, many of which are incomplete.
This causes the company's actual return on investment to dropwell below the 10% level.
As a result, management decides to place a cap on the numberof new projects by raising the cost of capital for these newprojects to 15%.
Starting fewer new projects would give the company more timeand resources to complete existing projects.
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Capital RationingCapital rationing exists if there is a limit on the amount of funds available forinvestment.
There are two forms of capital rationing: soft rationing and hard rationing.
Soft Rationing.
Hard Rationing.
Soft Rationing exists if businesses themselves, or their senior managers,place limits on the size of the capital budget. Soft rationing limits can berelaxed if added NPV investments are available; financing is provided easilyby financial markets.
Hard Rationing Hard rationing or limits on the capital budget are set byfinancial markets (investors).With funding constraints, positive NPV projectsare forgone. With hard rationing, the firm must choose projects, to the limitof its financing ability, from among a list of projects with positive NPVs.
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Capital RationingClassification of projects:
Divisible projects:Indivisible projects:(i.e. Unable to be divided or
separated)
( i.e. capable of being divided)
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Capital RationingClassification of projects:
Divisible projects:
There are certain projects which can either be taken in full
or can be taken in parts.
For example, a building( have 5 floors) can be contrasted
at a cost of 5 corers. How ever, if the funds are not
sufficiently available then only a part of building, say only
2 floors, can be constructed for the time being. But all the
proposal may not be divided.
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Capital RationingClassification of projects:
Indivisible projects:
There are certain projects proposal which are indivisible.
These proposal have a feature that either the proposal, as
a whole, be taken in its totality or not taken at all.
For example, A proposal to buy a helicopter cannot be
taken in parts.
Similarly, a multi stage plant can only be installed fully but
not in parts.
There can be many instances of indivisible projects.
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Capital Rationing
Another important aspects of capital rationing is that a firmmay face capital rationing for one particular period only i.e.,
single period capital rationing or may face capital rationing
for several periods i.e., multiple periods capital rationing
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Capital Rationing
Single period capital rationing:
This is simple type of capital rationing and occurs when afirm faces shortage of funds in particular year only.
Impliedly, these limited capital funds can finance fewer
than otherwise available feasible proposal.
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Capital Rationing
Multi-Period capital rationing:
When a firm faces limitation of funds in more than oneperiod then above technique may not be of much help.
In such case, the firm may have to resort to some sort of
mathematical programming in order to identify the
optimum selection of proposals.
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Calculation of Capital Rationing
(divisible)
A company has 7 core available for investment. It has
evaluated its options and has found that only 4 investment
projects given below have positive NPV. All these
investment are divisible. Advise the management which
investment(s) projects it selects.
Projects Intial Invesments(crore)
x 3y 2
z 2.5
w 6
NPV(crore)
0.60.5
1.5
1.8
PI
1.21.25
1.6
1.3
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Calculation of Capital Rationing
Solution :
Accept the project Z in full and W in part (4,50,000) as it
will maximize the NPV.
Ranking of the Projects in Descending Order of Profitabilty Index
Project and (Rank) Investment outlay (crore) Profitability Index1.50
1.80
0.50
0.60
NPV (crore)1.60
1.30
1.25
1.20
2.50
6.00
2.003.00
Z(1)
W(2)
Y(3)x(4)
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Calculation of Capital Rationing
Indivisible projects:
Example:A company working against a self-imposed capital rationing constraint of.
70 corer is trying to decide which of the following investment proposal
should be undertaken by it. All these investment proposal are invisibleas well as independent. The list of investment along with theinvestment required and the NPV of the projected cash flows aregiven below :
which investment should u be acquired by the company?
Project Initial Investment (. Crore) NPV(. Crore)A
B
C
D
E
10
24
32
22
18
6
18
20
30
20
Calculation of Capital Rationing
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Calculation of Capital Rationing
Solution:
NPV from investment D,E B.68 crore with utilisedleaving .6 crore to beinvested in some otherinvestment outlet.
No other package wouldyield an NPV higher than thisamount.
The company is an integralpart of selecting optimalinvestment package /set incapital rationing situation.
Indivisible projects:
Example: A company working against a self-imposed
capital rationing constraint of. 70 coreris trying to decide which of the followinginvestment proposal should beundertaken by it. All these investmentproposal are invisible as well as
independent. The list of investmentalong with the investment required andthe NPV of the projected cash flows aregiven below :
which investment should u be acquiredby the company?
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Calculation ofCapital Rationing
Example:
Total funds available is .3,00,000. Determine the optimalcombination of projects assuming that the projects are
divisible.
Project Required intial investment NPV at the appropriate cost of capitalA
B
C
D
E
20,000
35,000
16,000
25,000
30,000
1,00,000
3,00,000
50,000
2,00,000
1,00,000
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Calculation ofCapital Rationing
Solution:
continue.
Project Required NPV at the
Intial outlay Appoprite
(.) ost of the capital ().
Profitability
Index
[(3)/(2)]
Rank
[1] [2] [3] [4] [5]
A
B
C
DE
1,00,000
3,00,000
50,000
2,00,0001,00,000
0.2
0.117
0.32
0.1250.3
20,000
35,000
16,000
25,00030,000
3
5
1
42
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Calculation ofCapital Rationing
*(2,00,000X1/4)
Therefore, the optimal combination of projects is C,E,A and 1/4thportion of D.
Rank of Investment Project Required Initial (.)
1
2
3
4
C
E
A
1/4th of D
50,000
1,00,000
1,00,000
50,000
Total 3,00,000
Abandonment Evaluation Of Capital
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Abandonment Evaluation Of Capital
Budgeting
Meaning of Abandon:
To leave thing or place.
Meaning of abandonment :
The act of giving something up.
Abandonment Evaluation Of Capital
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Abandonment Evaluation Of Capital
Budgeting
It quite possible in practice, that though a proposal has
been evaluated and implemented after a careful analysis
of all types of risk associated with it, yet at later stage, it
may be found that the project is no longer economically
viable even if its economic life is not yet over.
The firm may be faced with a situation when it is take a
decision whether to abandon project which has failed
before the end of its estimated economic life.
Abandonment Evaluation Of Capital
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Abandonment Evaluation Of Capital
Budgeting
Example:The projected cash flows and the expected net abandonment values for a
project are given below.
a) Should a project be abandoned ?if so, when ?Assume that the minimum rate of return expected from the project is 10%.
b) Will you recommendation be different, id the project, is voluntary in
nature ? Support your answer.
.)
Abandonment Evaluation Of Capital
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Abandonment Evaluation Of Capital
Budgeting
Solution :
Computation of expected NPV over 4 years of economic life for the project
Year Cash flows Abdoment value (.) P.V factor @ 10 % P.V of Cash flow (.) P.V of Abandonment value (.)0
1
2
3
4
-1,00,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
0
65,000
45,000
20,000
0
1
0.909
0.826
0.751
0.683
-1,00,000
31,815
24,780
18,775
13,660
0
59,085
37,170
15,020
0
Total NPV= (10,970)
Abandonment Evaluation Of Capital
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Budgeting
Cont
Statement Showing Computation of total NPV of the Project at the end of each yearP.v and Total at the end of
year Praticular 1year 2year 2year
0 cash flows -1,00,000 -1,00,000 -1,00,000
1 cash flows 31,815 31815 31,815
abandonment value 59,085 0 0
2 cash flows 0 24,780 24,780
abandonment value 37,170 0
3 cash flows 0 18,775abandonment value 15,020
TOTAL -9,100 -6,235 -9,610
Abandonment Evaluation Of Capital
B d i
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Budgeting
Recommendation :In the view of above comparative statement it may be
observed that the project should be abandoned since
there is no positive NPV at the end of any year.
It should be abandoned at the end of 2 years, where thelosses are the minimal- the total NPV at the end of 2
years being the highest, viz, (.6,235), where the
negative value is the least.
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Impact of inflation in capital budgeting
What is inflation ?
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Impact of inflation in capital budgeting
Inflation refers to a continuousrisein general price level
which reduces the value of money orpurchasing power
over a period of time.
Impact of inflation in capital budgeting
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Impact of inflation in capital budgeting
Inflation is the rate of sustained increase in the prices ofgoods and services, measured as a percentage increaseover an annual period.
When there is an increase in inflation rates it means thatfor each Rupee that you spend you will be able to buy a
smaller amount of a particular product or service.Inflation means that the value of a Rupee (in terms of
what it can buy) is not constant.
This is referred to as the purchasing power of theRupee. When rates of inflation rise there is acorresponding reduction in purchasing power as themoney is able to buy less tangible goods.
Impact of inflation in capital budgeting
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Impact of inflation in capital budgeting
EXAMPLE:Assume that the inflation rate of a particular
economy is 2% per year. This means that a product thatcurrently costs 2 will cost 2.04 at the same time next
year. Inflation increases the price and you cant buy the
same goods with a Rupee as you previously could.
Impact of inflation in capital budgeting
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Impact of inflation in capital budgeting
General inflation, i.e., the changes in price of the various
factor which may increase the project cost e.g., wage
rates, sales prices, material costs , energy costs,
transportation charges and so on.
Every attempt should be made to estimate specific
inflation for each element of the project in a detailed
manner as feasible.
The overall estimate based on the RPI are likely to be
inaccurate and misleading.
Impact of inflation in capital budgeting
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Impact of inflation in capital budgeting
Types of inflation in capital budgeting:
1. Differential inflation
2. Synchronized inflation
Impact of inflation in capital budgeting
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Impact of inflation in capital budgeting
Differential inflation :
differential is where
costsand revenuechangeat differing
rates of inflation or
where the various
items of cost andrevenue move at
different rates.
Synchronized inflation:
Synchronized inflation
where the cost andrevenuerise at the
same rate.
Impact of inflation in capital budgeting
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Impact of inflation in capital budgeting
Types of cash flows :
Money cash flows.
Real cash flow.
Impact of inflation in capital budgeting
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Money cash flows:The money cash flows are
those which are expressed inmoney terms.
These are the actual amount
expected to arise in future.These cash flows include theeffect of inflation.
The money cash flows areknown as the nominal cashflows.
The money cash flows willoccur in terms of thepurchasing power of thatperiod in which they occur.
Real Cash Flows: The real cash flows are those
cash flows which have beenexpressed in terms of realvalues i.e., these areexpressed in term of constantprices.
So these cash flows excludethe effect of inflation.
It May be noted that the realcash flows are not necessarily
equal to the present valuesof money cash flows.
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Impact of inflation in capital budgeting
The money cash flows and the real cash flows differ onlybecause of existence on inflation.
Is there is no inflation then the money cash flows are just
equal to the real cash flows.
If there is inflation, the real cash flows can be derived bydiscounting the future money cash flows at the inflation rate.
Impact of inflation in capital budgeting
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Impact of inflation in capital budgeting
The relationship between nominal and real discount rate canbe expressed as:
Nominal Discount Rate = (1+Real discount Rate) (1+inflation rate) -1
Real discount Rate =+
(+ )1
Impact of inflation in capital budgeting
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Impact of inflation in capital budgeting
A corporate firmsmanagement policy is toearn a real rate of return(r) of10% on new projects.
It is expected that theinflation rate (i) during theproposed projects life is6% per year.
Determine the nominal
discount rate (n) whichshould be used by the firmto determine the presentvalue of the project.
Solution:
Nominal rate (n) = (1+r)(1+i)-1
=(1+0.10)(1+0.06)-1
=(1.1)(1.06)-1
= 1.166-1= 0.166
= 16.6%
Impact of inflation in capital budgeting
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Impact of inflation in capital budgeting
Sagar industries employ 15% asnominal required rate of returnto evaluate its new investmentprojects.
In the recent meeting of itsboard of directors, it has beendecided to protect the interestof shareholder againstpurchasing power loss due toinflation.
The expected inflation rate inthe economy is 6%.
Determine the real discountrate to be employed now bySagar industries
Solution:
Real rate(r) =+
(+) 1
=
+.
(+.) 1
=(.)
(.) 1
=1.0849 1
=.0849
=8.49%
Impact of inflation in capital budgeting
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Impact of inflation in capital budgeting
A new machine is expected thefollowing set of incremental CFATduring its 5 years economic usefullife.
The rate ofinflation during theperiod is expected to be 8% and the
projects cost of capital in real termswould be 10%.
Should the machine be purchased ifit cost .25 lakh?
Solution: Step 1.
Year CFAT()
1
2
3
4
5
10,00,000
12,00,000
15,00,000
8,00,000
5,00,000
Determination of Real CFAT
Year CFAT() Inflation factor at 8% Real CFAT()
1
2
3
4
5
10,00,000
12,00,000
15,00,000
8,00,000
1/(1.08)=0.926
1/(1.08)2=0.857
1/(1.08)3=0.794
1/(1.08)4=0.735
1/(1.08)5=0.681
9,26,000
10,28,400
11,91,000
5,88,000
3,40,500
Impact of inflation in capital budgeting
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Impact of inflation in capital budgeting
A new machine is expected thefollowing set of incremental CFAT
during its 5 years economic useful life.
The rate ofinflation during the period
is expected to be 8% and the projects
cost of capital in real terms would be10%.
Should the machine be purchased if it
cost .25 lakh?
Solution: Step 2.
Recommendation : The machine should
be purchased as the NPV is positive.
Year CFAT()
1
2
3
4
5
10,00,000
12,00,000
15,00,000
8,00,000
5,00,000
Determination of NPV using real Rate of Discount
1
Year
2
3
4
5
Real CFAT()
9,26,000
10,28,400
11,91,000
5,88,000
3,40,500
Discount factor at 10%
0.909
0.826
0.751
0.683
0.621
Total PV()
8,41,734
8,49,458
8,94,441
4,01,604
2,11,450
Total present value ()3198687
Less : Cash outflows ()25,00,000
Net present value ()6,98,687
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A company is considering a cost saving project. Thisinvolves purchasing a machine costing .7,000. which will
result in annual saving on wage costs .1,000 and on
material cost of.400.the following forecast are made of
the rates of inflation each year for the next 5 years:Wages costs10%,
Material costs 5%
General prices 6%
The cost of capital of the company, in monetary terms, is15%.Evaluate the projects, assume that the machine has
life of 5 years and no scrap value.
p p g g
d
108
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d
Solution:
Analysis : Since present value of cost of project exceeds the cost of savings from it andhence it is not suggested to purchase the machine.
Year1
23
4
5
Labour cost saving( ) Material Cost Saving( ) Total saving( ) DCF @15% Present Value ( )
100(1.1) = 1,210
100(1.1)= 1,331
100(1.1)=1,100
100(1.1)= 1,464
100(1.1)= 1,610
400(1.05)=420
400(1.05) = 441
400(1.05)= 463
400(1.05)= 486
400(1.05)= 510
1,520
1,651
1,794
1,950
2,120
0.87
0.756
0.658
0.572
0.497
1,322
1,255
1,184
1,112
1,060
Present value of total saving 5,933
Less: initial cash outflows 7,000
Net present value ( negative) -1,067
Calculation of NET Present Value
Impact of inflation in capital budgeting
Ri k E l ti i C it l B d ti
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Risk Evaluation in Capital Budgeting
Probability Analysis .
Certainty Equivalent Method.
Sensitivity Technique .
Standard Deviation Method
Co-efficient Of Variation Method
Decision Tree Analysis
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Risk Evaluation in Capital Budgeting
Probability Analysis :A probability technique is the relative frequency with which
an event may occur in the future.
When future estimates of cash inflows have different
probabilities the expected monetary values may becomputed by multiplying cash inflows with the probability
assigned.
The monetary values of the inflows may further be
discounted to find out the present values.The projects that gives higher net present value may be
accepted.
Ri k E l ti i C it l B d ti
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Risk Evaluation in Capital Budgeting
Example :Two mutually exclusive investment proposals are being
considered. The following information is available.
Assuming cost of capital at 10%, advise the selection of the
project.
Project X() Project Y()
Cost ()6,000 ()6,000
Cash Inflows
Year () Probability () Probability
1
2
3
4,000
8000
12,000
0.2
0.6
0.2
8,000
9,000
9,000
0.2
0.6
0.2
Ri k E l ti i C it l B d ti
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Risk Evaluation in Capital Budgeting
Solution : Project XCalutation of Net Present Value of the Two Projects
Year P.V.F @10% C.I () Probability Monetary value P.V()
12
3
0.9090.826
0.751
4,0008,000
12,000
0.200.60
0.20
8004,800
2,400
7273,965
1,802
Total Present Value 6,494
Less: Cost of Investment 6,000
Net Present Value 494
Risk E al ation in Capital B dgeting
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Risk Evaluation in Capital Budgeting
Solution : Project YCalutation of Net Present Value of the Two Projects
Year P.V.F @10% C.I () Probability Monetary value P.V()
12
3
0.9090.826
0.751
0.200.60
0.20
7,0008,000
9,000
1,4004,800
1,800
1,2733,965
1,352
Total Present Value 6,590
Less: Cost of Investment 6,000
Net Present Value 590
Risk Evaluation in Capital Budgeting
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Risk Evaluation in Capital Budgeting
Solution : Project YCalutation of Net Present Value of the Two Projects
Year P.V.F @10% C.I () Probability Monetary value P.V()
12
3
0.9090.826
0.751
0.200.60
0.20
7,0008,000
9,000
1,4004,800
1,800
1,2733,965
1,352
Total Present Value 6,590
Less: Cost of Investment 6,000
Net Present Value 590
Risk Evaluation in Capital Budgeting
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Risk Evaluation in Capital Budgeting
DECISION TREE ANALYSIS :Quit often a firm may have to take a sequential decision i.e., the
present decision is affected by the decisions taken in the past or
it affects the future decision of the same firm
In the capital budgeting the evaluation of a project frequentlyrequires a sequential decision making process where the accept
or reject decision made in several stages.
Instead of making decision once for all, it is broken up into
several parts and stages.
At each stage there may be more then one option available andthe firm may have to decide every time that which option is to be
taken for.
Risk Evaluation in Capital Budgeting
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Risk Evaluation in Capital Budgeting
In modern business there are complex investmentdecisions which involve a sequence of decisions over time.
Such sequential decisions can be handled by plotting
decisions tree.
A decision tree is graphic representation of the relationshipbetween a present decision and future event, future
decision and their consequence,
The sequence of events is mapped out over time in format
resembling branches of a tree and hence the analysis isknown as decision tree analysis .
Risk Evaluation in Capital Budgeting
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Risk Evaluation in Capital BudgetingMr. wise is considering an investment proposal of. 20,000. the expected
returns during the life of the investment are as under.
Using 10% as the cost capital, advise about the acceptability of the project.
Year 1
Event
1
23
Cash flows ()
8,000
12,00010,000
Probability
0.3
0.50.2
Year 2
Cash flows in year 1 are
.8,000 .12,000 .10,000
Event
1
2
3
C.I ()
15,00020,000
25,000
Prob
0.20.6
0.2
C.I ()
20,00030,000
40,000
Prob
0.10.8
0.1
C.I
25,00040,000
60,000
Prob
0.20.5
0.3
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C l l ti f N t P t V l f C h I fl
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Calculation of Net Present Value of Cash Inflows
AlternativesCash inflows
Year I () Year II ()Discount factor 10%
Year I Year IIPresent Values
Year I () Year II ()
Total ()Net Present
Value ()
a) (i) 8,000 15,000 0.909 0.826 7,272 12,390 19,662 -338
(ii) 8,000 20,000 0.909 0.826 7,272 16,520 23,792 3,792(iii)
b)(i)
(ii)
(iii)
c) (i) (ii)
(iii)
8,000 25,000 0.909 0.826 7,272 20,650 27,922 7,922
12,000 20,000 0.909 0.826 10,908 16,520 24,428 7,428
12,000 30,000 0.909 0.826 10,908 24,780 35,688 15,688
12,000 40,000 0.909 0.826 10,908 33,040 43,948 23,948
10,000 25,000
0.909
0.909
0.909
0.826
0.826
0.826
9,090
9,090
9,090 20,650
33,040
49,560
29,740
42,130
58,650
9,740
22,130
38,650
10,000
10,000
40,000
60,000
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Decision Tree Analysis
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Cash
outflow
.20,000
.8,000
.12,000
.10,000
1
Year 0
2
YearI ProbC.I ()
Year II ProbC.I ()
3 4
N.P.Vof inflow()
5
JointProbability
6 = 4x5
ExpectedN.P.V ()
15,000
20,000
25,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
25,000
40,000
60,000
-338
3,792
7,9227,428
15,688
23,948
9,740
22,130
38,650
0.06
0.18
0.06
0.05
0.4
0.05
0.04
0.1
0.06
-20.28
682.56
475.32371.4
6,275.20
1,197.40
389.60
221.30
2,319.00
Total : 1 11,911.50
.3
.5
.2
.2
.6
.2
.1
.8
.1
.2
.5
.3
RISK ADJUSTED DISCOUNT RATE
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RISK ADJUSTED DISCOUNT RATE
The simplest method of accounting for risk in capital
budgeting is to increase the cut-off rate or discount factor
by certain percentage on account of risk.
The project which are more risky and which have greater
variability in expected returns should be discounted at
higher rate as compared to the projects which are less
risky and expected to have lesser variability in returns.
RISK ADJUSTED DISCOUNT RATE
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RISK ADJUSTED DISCOUNT RATE
Beta company Ltd. Is considering the purchase a new investment .Two alternative investment are available (A & B ) each costing
. 1,00,000.Cash inflows are expected to be as follows :
The company has a great return on capital of 10%. Risk premiumrates are 2% and 8% respectively for investment A & B.
Which investment should be preferred?
Cash flows
RISK ADJUSTED DISCOUNT RATE
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RISK ADJUSTED DISCOUNT RATE
Solution :
The profitability of the investment can be compared on the basis of net
present values cash inflows adjusted for risk premium rates as follows:
Years
1
2
3
4
Discount factor @
10%+2%=12%
0.893
0.797
0.712
0.635
Cash
Inflows ()
40,000
35,000
25,000
20,000
Present
Value ()
35,720
27,895
17,800
12,700
Total : 94,115
Investment A
Net Present Value .94,115-1,00,000 = (5,885)
RISK ADJUSTED DISCOUNT RATE
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As at even higher discount rate B gives a higher net present value,
investment B should be preferred.
Years
1
2
34
Cash
Inflows ()
Present
Value ()
Discount factor @
10%+8%= 18%
0.847
0.718
0.6090.516
50,000
40,000
30,00030,000
Total : 1,04,820
42,350
28,720
18,27015,480
Investment B
Net Present Value .1,04,820-1,00,000 = 4,820
SENSITIVITY TECHNIQUE
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SENSITIVITY TECHNIQUE
SENSITIVITY TECHNIQUE :Where cash inflows are very sensitive under different
circumstance, more than one forecast of the future cash inflowsmay be made.
These inflows may be regarded as Optimistic, Most likely and
Pessimistic.further cash inflows may be discounted to find out the net
present values under these three different situations.
If the net present values under the three situation differ widely itimplies that there three different situations.
If the net present values under the three situation differ widely itimplies that there is a great risk in the project and the investorsdecisions to accept or reject a project will depends upon his riskbearing abilities.
SENSITIVITY TECHNIQUE
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SENSITIVITY TECHNIQUE
Example : Mr. risky is considering two mutually exclusive projects A and B.You are required to advise him about the acceptability of the projects from
the following information.
Project A Project B
Cost of the investment 50,000 50,000forcast Cash Inflows per annum for 5 years
Optimistic
Most Likely
Pessimistic
30,000
20,000
15,000
50,000
40,000
20,000
(The cu-off rate may be assumed to be 15%)
SENSITIVITY TECHNIQUE
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S S C QU
The net present value as calculated above indicate that Project B is morerisky as compared to Project A. But at the same time during favorable
conditions, it is more profitable also. The acceptability of the project will
depend upon Mr. Riskys attitude towards risk.
If he could afford to take higher risk, project b may be more profitable.
Calucation of Net present value of Cash Inflows at a Discount
Rate of 15% ( annuity of Re. 1 for 5 years)
Annual Discount P.V N.P.V
cash flows . factor 15% . .
Project A Project B
Optimistic
Most likely
Pessimistic
Annual Discount P.V N.P.V
cash flows . factor 15% . .
30,000
20,000
15,000
3.3522
3.3522
3.3522
1,00,566
67,014
50,283
50,566
17,044
283
40,000
20,000
5,000
3.3522
3.3522
3.3522
1,34,088
67,044
16,761
84,088
17,044
-33,239
Conflict between
NPV
&
IRR
results
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In case of mutually exclusive investment proposals, which
compete with one another in such a manner that acceptance
of one automatically excludes the acceptance of the other.
The NPV method and IRR method may give contradictory
result.
The NPV may suggest acceptance of one proposal where
as, the internal rate of return may favor another proposal.
Conflict between
NPV
&
IRR
results
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Such conflict in ranking may be caused by any one or more
of the following problems:
I. Significant difference in the size ( amount ) of cash outlays
of the various proposal under consideration.
II. Problem of difference in the cash flows patterns or timings
of the various proposals.
III. Difference in service life or unequal expected lives of the
projects.
In such case, while choosing among mutually exclusiveprojects, one should always select the project giving the
largest positive net present value using appropriate cost of
capital or predetermined cut off rate.
Conflict between
NPV
&
IRR
results
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The reason for the same lies in the fact that the objective of
an firm is to maximize shareholders wealth and the project
with the largest NPV has the most beneficial effect on shares
prices and shareholders wealth.
Thus, the NPV method is more reliable as compared to the
IRR method in ranking the mutually exclusive projects.
In fact, NPV is the best operational criterion for ranking
mutually exclusive investment proposals.
Conflict between
NPV
&
IRR
results
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A firm whose cost of capital is 10% is considering two
mutually exclusive projects A and B, the cash flows of which
are as below:
Suggest which project should be taken up usingI. Net Present Value Method, and
II. The Internal Rate of return Method.
Year Project A Project B
. .0 -50,000 -80,000
1 62,500 96,170
Conflict between
NPV
&
IRR
results
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Solution :
(I) Calucation of Net PresentValue (NPV)
Project A Project B
YEAR P.V. factor Cash flows (.) P.V () Cash flows (.) P.V ()
01
10.909
-50,00062,500
-50,00056,812
-80,00096,170
-80,00087,418
Net Present Value (NPV) 6812 7418
(II)Calculation of Internal Rate of ReturnProject A Project B
Conflict between
NPV
&
IRR
results
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Suggestion :According to the NPV Method, investment in project B is
better because of its Higher positive NPV; but according to
the IRR method project A is better investment because of
higher internal rate of Return.Thus, there is a conflict in ranking of the two mutually
exclusive proposal according to the two methods.
Under these circumstances, we would suggest to take up
Project B which give a higher Net present Value because indoing so the firm will be able to maximize the wealth of the
shareholders.
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Spontaneous sources :
The spontaneous sources are those sources which occurand result from the normal business activities.
In the usual course of business operations, a firm might be
getting goods and services for which payments are to bemade at a later stage. i.e., with a time gap.
To extent, payment is delayed, the funds are available tofirm.
These sources are generally unsecured and vary in line withthe change in sales level.
There are also known as trade liabilities or simply as currentliabilities. cont
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Two important spontaneous sources of short term financing
are:
i. Trade credit.
ii. Accrued expenses .
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Trade credit :
When firm buys goods from another, it may bot be required
to pay for these goods immediately.
During this period, before the payment become due, thepurchaser has a debt outstanding to the supplier.
This debt is recorded in the buyers balance sheet as
creditors; and the corresponding account for the supplier is
that of debtors.
The trade credit may be define as the credit available in
connection with goods and services purchased for resale.
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Its the resale which distinguish trade credit from other
sources.
For example :
A fixed asset may be purchased on credit, but since these
are to be used in the production process rather then for
resale, such credit purchase of fixed asset is not called the
trade credit. The credit extended in connection with the
goods purchased for resale by a retailer or a wholesaler of
raw material used by manufacturer in producing its productsis called the trade credit.
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Accrued expenses :
oThe accrued expenses refer to the services availed by the
firm, but the payment for which has not yet been made.
o It is builtin and an automatic source of finance as most of
the service i.e., labor etc. are paid only at the end of a
period.
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Credit terms:
The credit term refer to the set of conditions on which a sellersells goods and services to the buyer and in particular, onwhich the buyer has to make the payment to the seller. These
includeThe size of the cash discount, if any from the net invoice
price which is given for making cash payment within aspecified period.
The period within which payment must be made if the cashdiscount Is to be availed.
The maximum period that can elapse before payment of netinvoice price should be made if the discount is not taken.
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Credit terms:
For example:
A credit term may be expressed as 2/10net 30.
It means that a cash discount of2% is allowed if the invoiceamount is paid within 10daysotherwise full payment must be
paid within 30 days.
In simple terms :
2 is percentage of discount.10is number days to avail discount.
30is number days allowed by supplier .
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Firm buys .100goods
Cash discountperiod ends
Credit periodends
Cost of additional 20 days . 2Credit period
beginsPay
.100
June 10June1
OR
June 30
Pay
.98
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Cost of trade credit or Annual Interest Rate :
Cost of Trade Credit =
100Where :
d= % Cash discount
n = Net period in days
p = Discount period in days
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What is the annual percentage interest cost associated withthe following credit terms?
I. 2/10 net 50
II. 2/15 net 40
III. 1/15 net 30
IV. 1/10 net 30
Assume that the firm does not avail of the cash discount but
pay on the last day of net period. Assume 360 days to a year.
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Question :
I. 2/20 net 50
II. 2/15 net 40
III. 1 /15 net 30
Solution:
I. cost =.
.
= 24.5%
II. cost =.
.
= 29.4%
III. cost =.
.
= 24.2%
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Question :
iv) 1/10 net 30
Solution:
iv) cost =.
.
= 18.2%
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