Capabilities-Based Cost Estimating: Capabilities Knowledge Base (CKB) Analysis Tools and Applications Chadd Sibert Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Army for Cost and Economics (ODASA-CE) [email protected](703) 601-4125 2009 ISPA / SCEA Professional Development and Training Workshop Presented at the 2009 ISPA/SCEA Joint Annual Conference and Training Workshop - www.iceaaonline.com
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Capabilities-Based Cost Estimating: Capabilities Knowledge Base (CKB) Analysis
Tools and Applications
Chadd SibertOffice of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Army for Cost and Economics
System Capability Architecture (SCA) RDT&E Acquisition Category
(ACAT) Crew Size
Functional Capability Areas (FCA) Procurement Lead Organization Horsepower
Joint Capability Areas (JCA) MILCON Milestone Dates Maximum Speed
O&M MILHDBK881A System Type Range
Unit Costs (APUC & PAUC) Service Rate of Climb
..... ..... .....
There are four types of data included:
Data Warehouse
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2009 ISPA / SCEA Professional Development and Training Workshop 11
CKB Data Warehouse: System Capability Architecture (SCA)
A Robust, Balanced Capability Analysis Architecture Has Been Created
The System Capabilities Architecture (SCA) Must Be Specific, Distinguishable, Well-Defined, and Analysis-Ready to Enable Parametric and Boolean Logic AnalysisQty 74 Capability Descriptors Available Per SystemCapability Architecture Mapped to Recognized DoD Capability Structures
Benefits:Allows users to reference authoritative source documents and additional system-related information.
Data Archive
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2009 ISPA / SCEA Professional Development and Training Workshop
CKB Analysis Tools and Applications
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CKB Analysis Tools Overview
The CKB Data Analysis Tools are divided into two major components:
Data Navigation:o Allows the user to efficiently search for and locate information within the Data
Warehouse and Data Archive.o There are currently two means of searching the data available:
Keyword SearchData Filtering
Analytical Tools:o Perform a specific analysis algorithm based on the user’s input.o There are currently three analytical tools available:
Analogous Systems CalculatorCapability Gap CalculatorCost per Capability Calculator
Analysis Tools
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2009 ISPA / SCEA Professional Development and Training Workshop 15
CKB Analytical Tools
Analogous SystemsUtilizes Jaccard Indexing. Measure the distance from
a new capability set to existing already acquired capability sets; use these distances to identify
analogies and estimate costs.Capability Gap Calculator
Easily identify capability gaps across portfolios; evaluate how a new capability set will mitigate those
gaps
Cost Per Capability CalculatorSolves a multiplicative system of equations to calculate a cost per capability across entire defense portfolio or
smaller sub-portfolios
Potential Future ToolsAutomated Data Export to Parametric Tools for Cost Estimating Relationship (CER) Development
Cost Risk Analysis AidsOthers
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2009 ISPA / SCEA Professional Development and Training Workshop 16
CKB Analytical Tools: Analogous Systems
• Analogous Systems: – Methodology:
Utilizes the Jaccard indexing and weighting method.
– User Inputs:Capability Set; System Type; andDegree of Similarity.
– Output: Stacked bar charts listing analogous systems. Each bar represents a specific capability.
– Benefits:Identification of analogous systems for statistical analysis, etc.
Analogous Systems Tool Sample Results
Analogous Systems Results
-3-2-10123456789
101112
System
Of In
terest
DDG 1000
(DD(X
))SSN 21
/ AN/B
SY-2
LPD 17
LHD 1
SSN 774 (
VIRGIN
IA C
LASS)
LHA REPLACEMENT
SSGN
CVN 21
DDG 51
ASDS
Analogous Systems
Uni
que
vs S
imila
r Cap
abili
ties
1. Manuever 2. Control 3. Shoot 4. Explode – Penetrate5. Support 6. Transport 7. C3I 8. Sense9. Protect 10. Sustain 11. Deploy 12. Train13. Manage Data
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2009 ISPA / SCEA Professional Development and Training Workshop 17
CKB Analytical Tools: Capability Gap Calculator
• Capability Gap Calculator: – Methodology:
Comparison of the capabilities of the current system inventory to those specified.
– User Inputs:Capability Set; and System Type.
– Output: Series of clustered columns. Columns indicate if capabilities are currently possessed and / or if they would be mitigated.
– Benefits: Easily identifies capability gaps across portfolios. Evaluates how a new capability set will mitigate those gaps.
Capability Gap Calculator Tool Sample Results
Capability Sea Systems User Selected % of Systems1.0 Manuever 19 1 95%2.0 Control 18 1 90%3.0 Shoot 12 1 60%4.0 Explode 0 1 0%5.0 Support 16 1 80%6.0 Transport 12 1 60%7.0 C3I 15 1 75%8.0 Sense 16 1 80%9.0 Protect 17 1 85%10.0 Sustain 15 0 75%11.0 Deploy 16 1 80%12.0 Train 12 0 60%13.0 Data 14 1 70%Total Systems 20
System Type: SeaSCA Level(s): 1
Capability Gap Calculator Results
02468
101214161820
1.0 M
anuev
er2.0
Contro
l3.0
Sho
ot4.0
Exp
lode
5.0 S
upport
6.0 Tra
nsport
7.0 C
3I8.0
Sen
se9.0
Pro
tect10
.0 Susta
in11
.0 Deplo
y12
.0 Tr
ain13
.0 Data
Capability
# of
Sys
tem
s w
ith C
apab
ility
Sea Systems User Selected
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2009 ISPA / SCEA Professional Development and Training Workshop 18
CKB Analytical Tools: Cost per Capability Calculator
• Cost per Capability Calculator: – Methodology:
A multiplicative system of equations is solved to calculate a cost per capability.
– User Input:Capability Set.
– Output: Series of data points and a single solid line. Data points represent actual and analogy-based estimates for analogous systems.Solid line represents the average of the analogy-based estimates. This average is the estimated cost of the system of interest.
– Benefits: Provides a cost estimate at a system level and / or a capability level.
Cost per Capability Calculator Tool Sample Results
Cost per Capability Results
System
of In
teres
tAna
logou
s Sys
tem 1
Analog
ous S
ystem
2Ana
logou
s Sys
tem 3
Analog
ous S
ystem
4
01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000
RD
T&E
CY0
8$M
Analogy-Based Est. Actual Ave. Analogy-Based Est.
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2009 ISPA / SCEA Professional Development and Training Workshop
Next Steps
19
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Next Steps: The CKB Web Portal
CKB Web Portal under DevelopmentInitial Launch Planned for Summer 2009
Username
The CKB Web Portal
Username
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2009 ISPA / SCEA Professional Development and Training Workshop
Summary
21
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2009 ISPA / SCEA Professional Development and Training Workshop
Summary
22
Pre-Milestone-A Cost Estimating and Capability-Based Cost Estimating, Although Related, are Distinct Concepts
JETS Milestone-A AoA Capability and Performance-Based Cost Analysis Successfully Completed
The Capabilities Knowledge Base Provides Data Visualization, and Tools to Aid Pre-Milestone-A and Capability-Based Cost Analysis
The CKB Web Portal is scheduled to be released in Summer 2009
Pre-Milestone-A Cost Estimating and Capability-Based Cost Estimating, Although Related, are Distinct Concepts
JETS Milestone-A AoA Capability and Performance-Based Cost Analysis Successfully Completed
The Capabilities Knowledge Base Provides Data Visualization, and Tools to Aid Pre-Milestone-A and Capability-Based Cost Analysis
The CKB Web Portal is scheduled to be released in Summer 2009
Presented at the 2009 ISPA/SCEA Joint Annual Conference and Training Workshop - www.iceaaonline.com
2009 ISPA / SCEA Professional Development and Training Workshop
Questions or Comments?
Chadd SibertOffice of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Army