Candidates' satisfaction with democracy. The Impact of the Electoral Outcome

Mannheim 27-29 January 2012 2nd Plenary Conference of the CCS

Candidates' Satisfaction with Democracy: The Impact of the Electoral Outcome

Ioannis AndreadisAristotle University of Thessaloniki


Main Objectives

• to study the effect of the electoral outcome on the candidates' attitudes towards the existing electoral institutions

• to study the effect of the electoral outcome on the candidates' support for referendums and direct democracy

• How many kinds of winners?


My point of departure

• Bowler, Donovan and Karp (2006)*:– they try to untangle the effects of values and ideology

from self-interest using different parties in different electoral contexts

– Australia, Germany, the Netherlands, and New Zealand

– Rational self-interest is a major feature of elite attitudes about electoral institutions

– Attitudes about democracy and political ideology also have a role to play

– Elected are more satisfied regardless of whether or not their party is part of government or opposition

• Bowler, S., T. Donovan, and J. A. Karp. 2006. Why politicians like electoral institutions: Self‐Interest, values, or

ideology? Journal of Politics 68 (2): 434-46.


Methodological differences• Bowler , Donovan and Karp argue that the

candidates from a governing party would display lower levels of satisfaction with democracy if they had been in opposition, without observing the attitudes of the candidates when their party is in opposition (counterfactual inference).

• It is better to study how the candidates of the same party change their attitudes when their parties move from government to opposition and vice versa (factual instead of counterfactual inference).


Suitable Data

• Greek Candidate Survey offers this opportunity – it was conducted in Greece twice within two

years (2007 and 2009) – the outcome of each election was different:

• The right wing party New Democracy (ND) won the 2007 elections

• The socialist party Panhellenic Socialist Movement (PASOK) won the 2009 elections

• CCS core offers three groups of DVs:


Affect towards current political institutions

• Satisfaction with the democracy in [Country]• The elections ensure that the views of MPs

reflect the views of voters• Citizens have ample opportunity to participate in

political decisions.• Legislation reflects the interests of the majority

of citizens.• Our democracy is about to loose the trust of the

citizens (-)• Special interests have too much influence on law

making (-)


Support for referendums and direct democracy

• Referendums help to stimulate political interest. • Referendums enable citizens to get politicians

attention.• A certain number of citizens should be able to

initiate a referendum• Referendums are poorly thought out and make

bad law SA&A (9%) N (41%) SD&D (50%) (+)• Parliament, not voters, should make final

decisions on law and policy (-)


Party discipline

• How should Members of Parliament vote in parliament when their party and their voters have different positions?

• How should Members of Parliament vote in parliament when their party position and their own opinion are different?

• Individual members of Parliament should be able to vote independent of their party's policy positions (-)


Main Independent Variables

• I follow Bowler, Donovan and Karp, i.e. “there are two ways in which self-interested politicians may perceive winning and losing: their own personal win or loss and that of their party.”

1. Government Party2. Winner (Elected)


Additional IVs

• Political Party (ND: 1)• L/R self-position L:0-3 C:4-6 R:7-10• Sex (male:1)• Age (<45, 45-54, >54)• Has been a candidate before (Yes:1)

• Losers’ consent in established democracies

• Year (2009:1)


Year of election

,0% 10,0% 20,0% 30,0% 40,0% 50,0% 60,0% 70,0% 80,0% 90,0% 100,0%

Satisfaction w ith thedemocracy in [Country]

The elections ensure thatthe view s of MPs reflect

the view s of voters

Our democracy is about toloose the trust of the

citizens

Individual members ofParliament should be able

to vote independent oftheir party's policy

positions

2007 2009


Political party

,0% 10,0% 20,0% 30,0% 40,0% 50,0% 60,0% 70,0% 80,0% 90,0% 100,0%


citizens

Legislation reflects theinterests of the majority of

citizens

Special interests have toomuch influence on law

making

Parliament, not voters,should make final

decisions on law andpolicy.

A certain number ofcitizens should be able to

initiate a referendum

Disagree thatReferendums are poorly

thought out and make badlaw .

New Democracy (ND) Panhellenic Socialist Movement (PASOK)


Left - Right

,0% 10,0% 20,0% 30,0% 40,0% 50,0% 60,0% 70,0% 80,0% 90,0% 100,0%


citizens


citizens


making



Left Center Right


Has been a candidate before

,0% 10,0% 20,0% 30,0% 40,0% 50,0% 60,0% 70,0%

Satisfaction with thedemocracy in [Country]

The elections ensure thatthe views of MPs reflect

the views of voters

New candidate Has been a candidate before


Sex

,0% 10,0% 20,0% 30,0% 40,0% 50,0% 60,0% 70,0% 80,0%



female male


Age

,0% 10,0% 20,0% 30,0% 40,0% 50,0% 60,0% 70,0% 80,0% 90,0%

party position over ownopinion



positions



<45 45-54 >54


Government 1/3

,0% 10,0% 20,0% 30,0% 40,0% 50,0% 60,0% 70,0% 80,0% 90,0% 100,0%



the views of voters

Citizens have ampleopportunity to participate in

political decisions.


citizens


citizens.


making

Opposition Government


Government 2/3

,0% 10,0% 20,0% 30,0% 40,0% 50,0% 60,0% 70,0%

party position over voteropinion

party position over ownopinion



positions


Chi Square: 0,078


Government 3/3

,0% 10,0% 20,0% 30,0% 40,0% 50,0% 60,0% 70,0% 80,0% 90,0%

Referendums help tostimulate political interest.



Referendums enablecitizens to get politicians

attention.

Disagree withReferendums are poorly

thought out and make badlaw.




Chi Sq: 0,272

Chi Sq: 0,332

Chi Sq: 0,122


Winner support for current political institutions

,0% 10,0% 20,0% 30,0% 40,0% 50,0% 60,0% 70,0% 80,0% 90,0%



the views of voters




citizens


citizens.


making

Loser Winner

Chi Square: 0,060


Winner: other significant relations?

,0% 10,0% 20,0% 30,0% 40,0% 50,0% 60,0% 70,0% 80,0% 90,0%


decisions on law andpolicy

Loser Winner


Is this hypothesis validated?

• Bowler, Donovan and Karp “In general we expect that the sense of personal loss will be most keenly felt by politicians and that they will be most responsive to that loss. Therefore, we expect that losing candidates will be most supportive of change, all other things being equal”.


Logistic regression: support for current political institutions

-1,500 -1,000 -,500 ,000 ,500 1,000 1,500 2,000



the views of voters




citizens .


citizens.


making.

Government Winner Conservative party Year 2009 Old candidate


Logistic regression: support for referendums

-1,5 -1 -0,5 0 0,5 1





Referendums enablecitizens to get politicians

attention.

Referendums are poorlythought out and make bad

law.

Government Winner Conservative party Male


Conclusions• Data indicate that there are significant differences between

government and opposition candidates. After the elections of 2009, when PASOK moved from the opposition to government the percentage of satisfied candidates raised. On the other hand, when ND lost the elections and moved from the government to the opposition, the percentage of satisfied candidates dropped (compared to 2007).

• Opposition candidates appear more supportive for an increased use of referendums than government candidates.

• Winners and losers: the variable gets into the model for a very limited number of items – (For PASOK and ND: when not in government the loss is total, i.e.

percentage of votes is lower, seats in Parliament drop seriously (50 seats bonus to the first party)

– One the other hand, satisfied candidates of non government parties (even in majoritarian systems): increased vote share from 3% to 10%

Candidates' satisfaction with democracy. The Impact of the Electoral Outcome

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