10 lucky readers have the chance to win a double pass to see Celtic Women live in concert on Saturday, January 18 at the Royal Theatre. PLUS a copy of Celtic Woman's (The Greatest Journey: Essential Collection CD/DVD) The enchanting Irish musical ensemble Celtic Woman returns to Australia off the back of a 90 day US tour much to the delight of their legion of fans. Returning by popular demand, this will be Celtic Woman’ s second Australian tour and they’re excited to bring their new show to our shores www.canberratimes.co m.au/competitions Entries close Sunday 11 August 11.59pm Winners will be contacted by email. Members of the Federal Capital Press of Australia Pty Ltd, Canberra Times Direct carriers, newsagents and their immediate families are ineligible to enter this competition. WIN a double pass 6 THE CANBERRA TIMES Tues day, Novemb er 12, 2013 www.canberratimes.com.au WORLD WORLD Massive destruction hinders More big storms on their way Sea-surfacetemperatures were about 1 degree above average in waters east of the Philippines where Haiyan formed. 1 Atmosphere has already warmed 0.9 degrees since 1750. Global emissions trajectory has us on a course for a rise of about 3.5 degrees. 2 Climate change will warm the sea surface but it will also have an impact on the troposphere. While the upper level warms, the tops of the storms are expected to go higher, reaching cooler air. 3 The temperature difference between sea surface and top of the storm will be greater, increasing the probability of more intense storms. 4 Warm, moist air rises Bands of thunderstorms spin around the centre Fastest winds spiralupwards inside thick clouds Air flows clockwise out from centre Warm air spirals inward, speeding up at centre Storm turns anticlockwise in the Northern Hemisphere (clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere) Calm air sinks at centre For a typhoon to form, the water must be at least 26.5°C at a depth of 46m How the monster formed ByPeter Hann am DEVASTATION: TyphoonHaiyan’shavoc includeda destroyedhighway,left, anda strippedcoconutplantation,right. Photos:Reuters Extreme storm events such as super typho on Haiyan, which wreaked havo c in the Philippin es, are more likely as the build-up of greenhouse gase s warms the plane t, scientists say. Wind speeds from typhoon Haiyan were estimated to have reached 314km/h when the monster storm mad e landfa ll on the Phi lippine island of Samar on Friday, eclipsing the previous record set by hurricane Camille in 1969, accor ding to US meteorologist Jeff Masters. The deat h toll from the city of Taclob an alone may exceed 10,000 people, local authorities say. Professor Will Steffen, a researcher at the ANU and memb er of the Climate Council, said a hotte r, moist er climat e is alre ady affecting storms such as Haiyan. ‘‘Once [cyclones] do form, they get most of their energy from the surface waters of the ocean,’’ Professor Stef- fen said. ‘‘We know sea-surface tem- peratures are warming pretty much around the planet, so that’s a pretty direct influence of climate change on the nature of the storm.’’ Dat a compile d from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shows sea temperat- ures were about 0.5 to 1 degree above nor malinthewatersto theeas t ofthe Phili ppine s asHaiyanbeganforming. The waters cool ed in the storm’ s wake, an indication of how the storm sucked up energy. Typhoons – or tropical cyclones as they are known in Australia – require sea-surface temperatures of at least 26.5 degr ees to form, accordin g to the Bureau of Meteorology. The low- pres sure systems can pers ist over lower sea-surface temperatures once they get going. Kevin Walsh , an associate pro- fessor at the University of Melbourne and an expe rt in tropical meteoro - logy, said warmer sea-surface tem- per atu re s are onl y one fac tor in determining cyclones’ ferocity. The key is the temperature differ- ence betwee n those seas andthe tops of the storms, high in the troposphere. That temp eratu re differ ential in cyclo nes is expe cted to widen as storm heigh ts push higher in the atmosphere, Dr Walsh said. Research indicates that while there may be fewer tropical cyclones in the future, their intensity will increase. A peer-review ed report in Nature Geoscience publ ishe d in 2010 by a team including Australia ’s Dr John Mc Bride ide ntif ied a lik ely shi ft towards fewer but stronger storms. “Existing modelling studies ... con- siste ntly proje ct decreases in the globally averaged frequency of trop- ical cyclones, by 6 to 34 per cent,” the report said. “Balanced against this, higher-resolu tion modelling studies typically project substantialincreases in the frequency of the most intense cyclones, and increases of the order of 20 per cent in the precip itation rate within 100 kilometres of the storm centre. ” Since the atmosphere can hold 4 to 8 per cent more water per degree of warming, scientists say rain events hav e the poten tia l to get more extreme, including cyclones. The risk for intens e rainfall and flooding when they hit land and drop their water as rainfall increases with globa l warmi ng, Prof essor Stef fen said. “They’ re packing more punch in terms of the wind and also the water vapour orrain thattheyare carry ing. ” And since climat e change is already raising sea levels, the risk of seve reinundatio n fromstormsis also increasing, Professor Steffen said. Maxwell Smart’ s cone of silence is now a tent ByMichaelSchmidt in Washington FOILINGTHE EAVESDROPPERS: USPresid entBarac kObamausesa secu ritytentin Rio deJaneiroin2011to keephisconver sati onspriva te. Phot o:The Whit eHouse When President Barack Obama travels abroad, his staff packs briefing books, gifts for foreign leaders and something more closely associate d with campi ng than diplomacy: a tent. Even when Mr Obama travels to allied nations, aides quickly set up the security tent– whichhas opaquesides andnoise- making devices inside – in a room near hishotelsuite.Whenthe Presidentneeds to read a classified document or have a sensitive conversation, he ducks into the tent to shield himself from secret video cameras and listening devices. US security officials demand their bosse s – not jus t the Pr esi de nt but membersof Congress,diplomats,policy- makers and military officers – take such preca utions when travel ling abroa d because it is widely acknowledged their hos ts often hav e no qualms abo ut snooping on their guests. The US has come under withering criticism in recent weeks about revela- tions that the National Security Agency liste ned in on allied leaders such as Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany. A panel created by Mr Obama in August to reviewthat practice,among othe r things, is sche duled to submit a prel iminar y report this week and a final report next month. But US officials assume – and can cite evidence – they receive the same treat- ment when they trave l abro ad, even from European Union allies. ‘‘No matter where you are, we are a target these days,’ ’ said James Woolse y jnr, director of central intelligence during the Clinton administration. ‘‘No matter where we go, count rieslike China , Russiaand muchof the Arab world have assets and are trying to spy on us, so you have to think about that and take as many preca utions as possible.’’ On a trip to Latin America in 2011, for example, a White House photo showed Mr Obama talking from a security tent in a Rio de Janeiro hotel suite with Hillary Clinton, then the secretary of state, and Robe rt Gates , defen ce secretary at the time, about the air war against Libya that had been launc hed the prev ious day. Another photo, taken three days later in San Salv ador , show ed him confe rring from the tent with advisers about the attack. TheStateDepartment,the CIAand the National Secu rity Coun cil decl ined to provide details on measures to protect officia ls over seas . But forme r offici als said measures ranged from instructing offici als trave lling ove rseas to assume every uttera nce and move is under surveillance and requiring them to scrub their mobile phones for listening devices after they have visited gove rnment office s, to equip ping the Pre siden t’ s limou sine, which alway s trave ls with him, to keep private conversations priv- ate . Mr Oba ma car rie s a spe cially encrypted BlackBerry. Countermeasur es are taken on US soil as well . When cabinet secreta ries and top national security officials take up their new jobs, the government retrofits their homes with special secure rooms for top-secret conversations and com- puter use. During the Cold War, listening devices were found embedded in the walls and light fixture s of the hotel s where US diplomats stayed. Thes e days , an official said, US ana- lysts worry more about eavesdropping radio signals beamed towa rds hote l rooms in the hope of picking up officials’ conversations. ‘‘We took it for granted that in some of these hotels, no matter thestate,device s were builtin ther e,’ ’ the official said. Ma ny of the measu res tak en for ove rseas trave l are only for the most senior officials because they are costly and cumbers ome. Instead of the tent, less senio r officials can end up using small er structures that look like tele - phone booths. But all officials travelling in this age of high surveillance are given one basic marching order: use common sense. NewYorkTimes London Giant Brit ish da tabase joins fight agains t canc er Weather -forecasting science is being used to predict the most effective ways to fight cancer in a groun d-br eakin g development. Technique s borrowed from Britain’ s Met Office have been put into a unique ‘‘a rtificial intelligence’ ’ database con- tions usi ng pow erf ul comput ers to crunch information from myriad sources, scientists tapping into the Can- SAR database will be guided to the most effective drugs and treatments. CanSAR, developed in Britain, brings toget her vast quanti ties of data from patients, clinical trials and genetic, bio- chemical and pharmacological research. Space Telescope for a million years. Dr Bissan Al-Lazikani, a leading mem- be r of the Ca nSAR team from the Institute of Cancer Research, in London, said: ‘‘CanSAR uses artificial intelligence, like that used in weather foreca sts, to predict which potential drugs are likely to work in which circumstances. ‘‘The database is capable of extraor- genetics, chemistry and other laboratory research. It can spot opportunities for future cancer treatments that no human eye could be expected to see.’’ CanSAR is being made freely available to scientists around the world. Using the database, research that had previously taken months will now take minutes. Dr Al-Lazikani added: ‘‘It is the Local Filip inos rally in support of victims ByFletaPage ENVOY: Bele n Anot a iskeepin gclosetabs. As soon as typhoon Haiyan hit the Philippines, Filipinos in Australia started fund-raising for the affected communit- ies. There are an estimated 8000 Filipinos and Austral ians of Filip ino descent in Canberra, a relatively small proportion of the 225,000 nationall y, but they have banded together following the destructive storm. “Thi s is one very good thi ng about Filipinos here in Australia and elsewhere in the world ... even before the embassy or the government could make an appeal, they on their own already started raising funds and collecting goods to [provide] relief and assistance to those victims of the typho on, ” Phili ppine s ambas sado r Belen Anota said. “In Canberra there are many small fund-rai sing events .. . [on Sunday] there was one, spearheaded by people who come from Iloilo, because it was one of the hardest-hit areas – [alth ough ] it was only typho on signa l number 3 in that area.” While the full extent of the damage from the typhoon, which was classed as a category 5 storm, will not be known until later in the week, Ms Anota is expecting the toll to increase significantly from the early initial reports. “The situation is very bad. The typhoon has been very destructive and devastating for the Philippines,’’ she said. “Today the report from our disaster risk management [says ] over200are repo rteddead,over100 are missing and the damage to property, infrastructure and agriculture and farms runs into the trillions of pesos [billions of dollars] and we know of course those are initial reports.” Haiyan is the 24th typhoon to hit the disaster-prone archipelago this season, and just last month an earthquake mea- sur ing 7.2 on the Richt er sca le als o devastated the island of Bohol. “Ou r we ath er bur eau say s we are expecting three more typhoons, so hope- fully not as destructive,” Ms Anota said. “We’ re praying very hard, our people continue to be resilient, they have been resilient through the years. Our govern- ment will persevere assisting, working at the soo nes t pos sib le time to res tor e power, restore water, health services.” Ms Ano ta ask ed tha t peo ple ke ep prayi ng the Philippin es is spar ed from further strong typhoons. “If they want to assis t, there are many avenues – eithe r their Filip ino commu nity orga nisation, the Austr ali an Red Cro ss or Car ita s Australia . .. there are many options.” Ca nberra ma n survives again ByDevonMcGillicuddy A Canberran who survived the bushfires in 2003 has now survived the worst natural disaster to hit the Philippines. Peter Harris, from Chapman, who moved to Cebu only four weeks ago, said he feared for his family’s lives as typhoon Haiyan ripped through the island. “Everything went past the window, I was so worried about the glass breaking, ” Mr Harris said. North Cebu is west of the hardest-hit region, Tacloba n, and was in the direct path. Oxfam says 98 per cent of houses in north Cebu have been destroyed. Drinking water, food and medicine are desperately needed. This is not the first time Mr Harris’s house has survived a disaster. Durin g the Canberra fires 10 year s ago his house was saved while 17 of 22 homes on his street were lost. He said a generator and fridge he bought after the fires helped him survive this latest disaster. “We had to stay inside for about 12 hours. There’s been no power, it just came back on last night. We’ ve had power because I’ve got that generator,” he said. “I’m a type one diabetic. If I didn’t have my fridge I wouldn’t have survived.” The 66-year-old said after the typhoon hit the region the Malaysian air f orce dropped food and tents into Tacloban but he did not know what was happening now. “It’s really bad over there. Tens of thousands of people haven’t eaten for days,” he said. “They can get there, they can get a boat over there.” According to Oxfam it was difficult to get to northCebubecau seof theamountof debr isover the roads, and while the immediate needs of the area were a concern the long-term affects were also a cause for worry. 10m aid praised as a good ‘first instalment’ ByDavidWroe How to help UNICEF www.unicef.org.au 1300 884 233 AUSTRALIAN RED CROSS www.redcross.org.au 1800 811 700 OXFAM www.oxfam.org 1800 088 110 WORLD VISION www.worldvision.com.au 13 32 40 SAVE THE CHILDREN www.savethechildren.org Aid groups have welcome d a $10 mil- lion aid pled ge by the Austral ian government to help the Philippines but warn much more will be needed for a disaster of the scale of typhoon Haiyan. Fore ign Affairs Minister Juli e Bisho p announced the fundi ng on Monday. She described the destruc- tion in the country as a ‘‘disaster on a massive scale’’ as she announced the aid package, joining the US, Britain and New Zeal and among intern a- tional donors. ‘‘Th e loss of life, the dama ge to proper ty and homes has been absolutely devastating,’’ she said. About $4 million will go to the United Nations and another $3 mil- lion through non-government orga nisati ons. A furth er $1 millio n will go towards the deployment of an Australian medical team, which will fly out of Darwin on Wednesday on an Australian Defence Force Boeing C-17. Another $1 million will be used for food and other essentia l items, such as tarpaulins, water containers and mosquito nets, and $1 millio n will go to t he Red Cross. World Vision chief executive Tim Cost ello, who flew from Africa on Monday night to the Philippines to help with the relief effort, welcomed the funding but said more woul d probably be needed. ‘‘ As a first instalment, that’ s ter- rific,’’he said . ‘‘Ithinkthisis probably going to demand more money. It is a crisis growing by the day.’’ Oxfam Australia CEO Helen Szoke agreed the funding committed by the Abbott government should be fol- lowed up with a larger contribution. ‘‘ For a dis aster of this scale, $10 million is not going to go very far,’’ she said. Ms Bishop said the amount pledged by the government was ‘‘on a scale with other countries’’. Bri tai n has pledge d £6 million ($10. 2 millio n) and the Euro pean Union A 3 million ($4.3 million). After the 2004 Boxing Day tsunami, estimated to have killed more than 230,0 00 peop le, including at least 130,0 00 in Indo nesia, the How ard government pledged $1 billion in aid to Indonesia. Ms Bishop said the Philippines had not ask ed for mil ita ry hel p fro m Australia, though all options would be considered if such a request were made. The US has sent marines from Okinawa, Japan. The Department of Foreign Affairs says Austral ians concerned for the welfare of family and friends in the region should first attempt to contact them directly. If that is unsuccessful, they shou ld call DFA T’s 24-hour cons ular eme rgency centre on 1300 555 135 or +612 6261 3305. Australians are being urged to continue with their plans to holiday in the P hi l i ppi nes , despi te the typhoon and earlier earthquake that hit the region. On Monday, the Australian govern- ment advised visitors to ‘‘exercise a high degree of caution’’ when visiting the Philippines. But Consu elo Jones, fro m the Phili ppine Depa rtment of To urism (Australia/New Zealand), urged Aus- tralians to support her country in its time of need. ‘‘I strongly feel that any Australian with plans of going to the Philippines should go,’’ she said. ‘‘All flights have been restored throughout the coun- try, except to Leyte.’’