Canadian Pulses Outlook

Canadian Pulse Outlook

Gordon Bacon, CEO Pulse Canada, CEO CSCA

February 16, 2012

Seeding : April-MayHarvest: August-September

Moisture Levels

Moisture Levels

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13f -

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

Canadian Crop Production

WheatCanolaPeaLentilFlax

mill

ion

met

ric to

nnes

Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada: Pulse and Special Crops Outlook, Grain and Oilseeds Outlook

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012f0

5001000150020002500300035004000

Canadian Pea Supply

Seeded Acres (kha) Production (kt)

+27%

+25%

Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada: Pulse and Special Crops Outlook

Canadian Pea Supply2008 2009 2010 2011 2012f

2010-11 % change

SUPPLY        

Seeded Acres (kha) 1617 1522 1396 942 1200 +27%Harvested Acres (kha) 1585 1487 1322 914 1170 +28%Yield (t/ha) 2.03 2.27 2.28 2.31 2.26Production (kt) 3571 3379 3018 2116 2650 +25%Imports (kt) 15 55 33 40 40Carry in 255 445 900 535 200

TOTAL SUPPLY (kt) 3,841 3,880 3951 2691 2890 +7%

Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada: Pulse and Special Crops Outlook

Canadian Pea Demand

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012f2010-11 % change

DEMAND        

Total Domestic Use (kt)* 571 802 404 391 390 0%Exports: Edible and Feed (kt) 2826 2178 3012 2100 2200 +5%Carry out (kt) 445 900 535 200 300

TOTAL DEMAND (kt) 3397 2980 3416 2491 2590 +4% * Includes, food, feed, seed, waste and dockage

Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada: Pulse and Special Crops Outlook

2008 2009 2010 2011-Nov -

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

Top 5 Export Destinations for Canadian Pea (tonnes)

IndiaChinaBangladeshUnited StatesCuba

Source: Statistics Canada

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012f0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Canadian Lentil Supply

Seeded Area (kha) Production (kt)

-18%

-15%

Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada: Pulse and Special Crops Outlook

2008 2009 2010 2011-Nov -

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

Top 5 Export Destinations for Canadian Lentil (tonnes)

TurkeyAlgeriaUAEIndiaEgypt

Source: Statistics Canada

Concluding Comments• Attend the CSCA Convention in June• Mid-winter weather tells us nothing• Very early: seeding intentions can change

Pulse and Special Crop Outlook, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canadahttp://www.agr.gc.ca/pol/mad-dam/index_e.php?s1=pubs&s2=spec&s3=php&page=spec_2012-01-17

Soil moisture maps: http://www4.agr.gc.ca/DW-GS/current-actuelles.jspx?lang=eng&jsEnabled=true

Sources

CSCA 2012 ConventionJune 25-28, 2012 Montreal, Quebec