Can we learn to tame "Black Swans"?

BBK. Gemeinsam handeln. Sicher leben

Can we learn to tame "Black Swans"?The Role of Strategic Crisis Management Exercises in Germany - LÜKEX

Comprehensive Safety and Security Approach as of 2002

Police Armed Forces

SecretService

Actorsin Civil

Protection

Private Operators of Critical

Infra-structures

Risk and crisis managementfor joint disaster prevention

othe

r act

ors

othe

r act

ors

National Security Architecture

- for internal use only -

Crisis Management –A few observations to start with

• Crisis = extraordinary event that cannot be handled by day-to-day working procedures, requiring special operating structures and procedures

• Focus: minimize the impact rather than preventing it?• "We have never had problems putting Cassandra to speak –

we have rather had problems in believing what she said" (D. Salomons, Columbia Univ.)

Summer Flooding 2013 Refugee Shelter 2015

v.

- for internal use only -

"Ideally", a continuous cycle…

CrisisRisk and Crisis Management

NOAH

GMLZ

- for internal use only -

Länderministries

Federalauthorities

Authorities of

the Länder

Federalministries

Criticalinfrastructure

providers

Science,research

Relieforganisations

Internationalreferences

LÜKEX joins actors before a crisis

- for internal use only -

The journey is the reward: 2 years of joint planning, preparing, conducting, evaluating!

LÜKEX is crisis anticipation and enables strategic foresight

2017

Natural Gas

Shortage

• 2005 Large scale blackout during winter storm in the Münsterland region

• 2009 "Mexican Flu"

• 2015 Cyber attack on German Parliament

• …

- for internal use only -

– Ministries Interior, Traffic, Defense in the political lead

Civil-Military Cooperation Evacuation

Failure of critical infrastructures

Damage of Critical

Infrastructures

Public Alert

International assistance

DNK & NEL Internal Management of

Resources

Psychosocial Emergency

Care

Speaking Storm Surge

- for internal use only -

28 August 2015: For the first time in 13 years, a LÜKEX exercise conduction is cancelled after 1 1/2 years of

planning and preparing, due to the refugee crisis.

From crisis exercise to real crisis management…

- for internal use only -

"We are doing now what we strongly needed to have exercised…"

Similar actors! Similar questions! Unforeseen

scenario…

Photos: Hans-Jürgen Vollrath, Rhein-

Zeitung

- for internal use only -

Crisis Management Exercises = prepare for the unthinkable!

- for internal use only -

Recipe for future-oriented strategic crisis management exercises (A German Chef's suggestions)

Involve state and non-state actors, follow an integrated societal and cross-sectoral approach

Target the highest decision-making level (strategic foresight is more complex than tactical choices)

Sharpen sensitivity for daring to think think unthinkable

Focus on the need for a good communication in crisis management about known as much as uncertain risks: to the public (the population is not my enemy!), to and through the conventional and 2.0 media, within and across organizations

Exercise beyond: there is more to strategic crisis management exercises than just the exercise conduction – it's a process where you learn to know your friends before you need them

- for internal use only -

BBK. Gemeinsam handeln. Sicher leben.

Thank you for your kind attention!Kontakt

Dr. Miriam HaritzHead of Division / Head of Federal Project Group LÜ[email protected]+49 228 99550 5600www.bbk.bund.de / www.luekex.de

Contact Information