CAN H E WIN?. Executive Summary Ted Cruz has committed his entire life to the Foundational principles that made America great. From reciting the Constitution.

CANH E

WIN?

Executive Summary•  Ted Cruz has committed his entire life to the Foundational

principles that made America great. From reciting the Constitution to Chambers of

Commerce as a teenager; to his time in the Bush Administration; to his powerful

victories before the Supreme Court; and finally, as one of the leading conservatives in

the Senate,Ted has been a Courageous Conservative.

•  If Republicans nominate a conservative in 2016, there is a good chance we can

win the White House•  The Establishment however never seems to learn that moderates don’t win•  The 2016 Primary will be completely different from past primaries due to changes

to the primary calendar and the number of well-funded candidates•  Ted Cruz’s leadership role on the most important issues that matter to primary

voters: Marriage, Religious Freedom, Immigration, Common Core, ObamaCare, Debt and the Second Amendment uniquely position him to build the coalition ofvotes necessary to win a crowded primary

•  Cruz has the most complete portfolio of campaign assets

IN 2012 A TERRIBLE CANDIDATEwith a terrible campaign almost won.Romney lost by only 428,00

0votesin just five states

:

Ohio 103,000

Florida 70,000

Colorado 113,000

New Mexico 76,000

Nevada 66,000

IN 2012 A TERRIBLE CANDIDATEwith a terrible campaign almost won.•  He was the one man on the planet who could not use ObamaCare as a

wedge issue

•  Romney HAD NO WEDGE OR MAGNET ISSUE to turn out the voters

he needed

•  Social media amateurs

•  Campaign manager could not harness the power of data analytics for

message creation, message targeting, and performance evaluation•  NO GROUND GAME – Moderates don’t attract block-

walkers

•  Terrible performance with Hispanics

IN 2012 A TERRIBLE CANDIDATEwith a terrible team almost won Florida.•  In 2012, 49% of the states Cuban Voters supported Obama while 47%

supported Romney

•  Bush won 75% and 78% of the Cuban Vote in 2000 and 2004.

•  Obama carried Florida by only 70,000 votes

•  There are 1,400,000 Cubans in Florida

•  Cuban Cruz would have only needed 66% of the Cuban vote in order to have

won Florida

IN 2012 A TERRIBLE CANDIDATEwith a terrible campaign lost Ohio due to recordAfrican-American turnout.•  African-American Voter Participation increased 50% with Obama

•  In 2012 African-Americans made up 15% of Ohio Voters and they went 96% for

Obama

•  In 2004, African-Americans made up 10%

•  Black population is flat to declining, roughly 12.1% of Ohio’s total population

•  Assuming that African-American support for the Democratic candidate had

reverted the 2004 levels results in a vote swing of 193,648 – Republicans would have won

•  Hillary will have to drive African-American turnout 25% over 2004 levels to win

Ohio

IN 2012 A TERRIBLE CANDIDATEwith a terrible campaign managed to lose Virginia.•  Since 2000, African-American citizen voting-age population actually shrank

from 20% to 18.7% in Virginia by 2012

•  Likewise, since 2000, the Hispanic share of potential voters also shrank from 3.4%

to 2.5% by 2012

•  Yet Romney managed to generate a turnout rate among non-Hispanic whites

(66.4%) that was not only lower than among African-Americans (69.5%), but lower than among Hispanics (71.9%)•  If African-American turnout just reverts to 2004 levels (54.8%) – and

nothing elsechanges – the Republican presidential nominee will win the state in 2016

IN 2012 A TERRIBLE CANDIDATEwith a terrible campaign did not win New Mexico because hisVermont based Campaign Czar did not understand Hispanics.•  46% of state is Hispanic

•  Romney lost New Mexico, who has a Republican Governor, by 10 points or

81,000 votes

•  Romney only captured 21% of the Hispanic vote compared with Bush, who got

40% in 2004

•  Romney’s disgraceful performance was hurt further by the fact that New Mexico

former Governor, Gary Johnson, ran as a Libertarian garnering 3.5%

•  Rafael “Ted” Cruz can achieve George Bush totals giving him 62,000 additional

Hispanics, while the Democrats lose 62,000, would more than offset Romney’s81,000 loss margin

IN 2012 A TERRIBLE CANDIDATEwith a terrible campaign did not win Colorado because hisVermont based Campaign Czar did not understand Hispanics.•  Hispanics made up 14% in 2012 and expected to make up 15% in 2016

•  Romney only received 23% of Hispanic vote versus 40% for Bush in 2004

•  Cruz achieving Bush numbers with Hispanics and turning out Republicans makes

Colorado, who just elected a conservative Senator, a very achievable target•  Cruz would still need to turn out additional married, white people in

order to carrystate

•  Cruz positioned to do well with the Libertarians in the state

Looking

to2016

242 296

Hillary 2016 Strategy

•  MAKE THE RACE ABOUT HISTORY, NOT HER

•  Hold on to as many African-American voters as she can

•  Increase turnout amoung single women to offset reduction of African-American

vote and potential losses with Hispanics

Republican Must Do’s for 2016

•  Perform better with Latino voters in Florida, Colorado, New Mexico and

Nevada - Target George Bush’s average of 40% (he got 56% in Florida)•  Shrink the gender gap that has increased to 4%

favoring women

•  Turn out white, married people over the age of 40 by focusing on wedge issues

and targeting evangelicals

Republicans win with wedge and magnet

that drive their voters to turnout

issues

Reagan 1980: The Economy and National SecurityBush (Atwater – South Carolina Conservative) 1988:

Willie Horton/Flag Burning *A+

Bush (Baker – Establishment Republican) 1992: No Wedge Issue

Bush 2000: Gay Marriage, Restore Honor and Dignity to the White House

Midterms 2010: ObamaCare

Midterms 2014: ObamaCare/Immigration

Every Senator in 2014 ran as a Ted Cruz Republican

Moderate Candidates

are

Losers

More Conservative c •

GW Bush (2000)"

GW Bush (2004)"

Reagan (1980)"

Reagan (1984)"

McCain (2008)"

Romney (2012)"

GHW Bush (1988)"

GHW Bush (1992)"

Ford (1976)"

Dole (1996)"

0" 12" 23" 35" 46" 58"

•  Rove won for Bu•sh by driving Evangelical turnout – Now he loses by doing the

opposite

= winning campaign

•  Exception was when Bush 41 ran as a hard conservative in 1988 with Atwater and Reagan’s help

The Establishment Never Learns

•  Operate under the Media-created myth that moderates win elections

•  Give away through candidate selection key wedge and magnet issues that are

must-haves in order to drive turnout and win

•  Successful Wedge Issues in the past have been:

- Willie Horton/flag burning in 1988

- Gay Marriage, Restoring Honor to the White House in 2000

- ObamaCare in 2010 and 2014•  In 2012 they chose the one man on the planet who could not take advantage

of the most effective wedge issue: ObamaCare

The Establishment Never Learns

•  For 2016 they have chosen, Jeb Bush. The one person on the planet that forfeits Republicans on every Hillary wedge issue:

- National Security

- Immigration

- Future Not Past

- Common Core

- Foreign Money

Ted Cruz is the only leading candidatewh

oon

has a consistent/strong recordthe

top

Clinton

wedge

issues

Money

Immigration and Common Core Very Important

CommonCore

ImmigrationFuture

Not PastNationalSecurity

Foreign

CRUZ

BUSH NO NO NO NO NO

HUCKABEE NO - NO

PAUL NO

RUBIO NO

WALKER NO NO

White Vote Shrank in 2012

Evangelicals

are not voting

Evan euca I Voters

Number of

# of Evenfelloel Voters% of Eleotorete

#of CVAPEvangelicals

# of Evangelical Voters who

sta ed tiome

22.1 million

21%74.5

million

52.4 million

25.7 million21%

79.4 million

53.7 million

30.2 mill ion

23%83.2

million

53 million

29. 7 million23%

86. 7 million

57 million

In 2004 Rove drove conservative and religiousvoter

growth to new highs – but that

slowed and stopped

progress

POPULATION-0.1 .

.•

·················.·.·•.·:

·····················

···························································································································

...

...:../................

........

-0.3

.CONSERVATIVES..

..... .. .

. .

.::

.

.•

:-0.4 . ···············

·•·······

....

.........

.

.• .

-0.5 ················

· ········RELIGIOUS.

0

················

·····.

'96

.

.l

.:

•••O-0.6

'04 '08 '12

The only time Republicans got more of the popular vote since 1988.

WHERE WE ARETODAY

GOP NOMINATION CONSIDERATION II

METHODOLOGY

!  739 autodial phone interviews conducted nationwide among likely Republican primary voters

!  Conducted May 15-16, 2015

!  Margin of error is +/- 3.6%

!  Comparative data results pulled from February 2015 polling

OF NOTE

!  This is a baseline study of Republican primary voter attitudes. The Republican field and attitudes of primary voters aredynamic and we fully expect the underlyingstructure of the electorate to continue evolving

in the coming months.!  Successful vote coalitions among the early primary and caucuses may likely only require 20-40% support.!  This survey was conducted by TargetPoint Consulting for its own use and was not conducted on behalf of any candidate or associated organization.

CANDIDATE AWARENESS AND CONSIDERATION

Please rate each candidate on a 7-point scale. Press 1 if you would almost certainly vote for that candidate. Press 2 if you wouldstrongly consider supporting that candidate. Press 7 if you would almost certainly never vote for that candidate. Press 6 if it is unlikely you

would ever support that candidate. Press 4 if you are completely neutral. However, you can use any number from1-7 to rate these candidates. If you don’t know the candidate well enough to rate them, Press 9. Those who selected 1-7 for a candidate

were considered ‘Aware,’ while those who selected 9 were considered ‘Not Aware.’Total

FebruaryAwareness1-7 Aware 9 Not Aware

94JEB BUSH

MIKE HUCKABEE

92

RAND PAUL 89

CHRIS CHRISTIE 89

MARCO RUBIO 85

TED CRUZ 80

-DONALD TRUMP

RICK PERRY

86

RICK SANTORUM 83

SCOTT WALKER 75

BEN CARSON 70

LINDSEY GRAHAM -

BOBBY JINDAL 69

CARLY FIORINA

50

JOHN KASICH 5957 43

66 35

69 32

70 30

75 25

75 26

81 19

82 19

84 17

84 16

86 14

86 14

90 10

91 9

94 7

CANDIDATE AWARENESS

Please rate each candidate on a 7-point scale. Press 1 if you would almost certainly vote for that candidate. Press 2 if youwould strongly consider supporting that candidate. Press 7 if you would almost certainly never vote for that candidate. Press 6 if it is unlikely you would ever support that candidate. Press 4 if you are completely neutral. However, you can use any number from 1-

7 to rate these candidates. If you don’t know the candidate well enough to rate them, Press 9.

MeanScores1 Certainly Consider 2-3 Consider 4+9 Neutral 5-6 Not Consider 7 Certainly Not Consider

MARCO RUBIO 2.99

SCOTT WALKER 3.01

JEB BUSH 3.57

MIKE HUCKABEE 3.48

TED CRUZ 3.51

BEN CARSON 3.31

RAND PAUL 3.80

RICK PERRY

3.90

3.88BOBBY JINDAL

RICK SANTORUM 4.08

CHRIS CHRISTIE 4.42

CARLY FIORINA

4.09

JOHN KASICH 4.00

DONALD TRUMP 4.91

LINDSEY GRAHAM 4.63

*Chart order is by total 1-3 consideration.

3 13 45 17 22

5 15 29 16 35

7 15 59 11 9

5 20 52 11 13

6 23 31 18 22

6 26 39 16 13

6 26 46 12 9

6 31 38 15 11

11 34 26 17 13

19 29 37 8 8

15 33 31 10 12

18 32 24 14 12

18 33 21 13 15

24 29 37 5 5

22 39 24 9 7

CANDIDATE CONSIDERATION

Comparing the total awareness of each candidate to their 1-3 consideration score wesee candidates who have higher awareness and popularity overall (Bush, Rubio,Huckabee, Paul, and Cruz) and we see that a group clustered toward the bottom left quadrant that are less unknown.

CONSIDERATIONCONVERSION

RATE

WELL-KNOWN LESS POPULAR CANDIDATES WELL-KNOWN TOP CHOICES100Paul Bush

Huckabee

Cruz

ChristiePerry

Santorum

90 TrumpRubio

80WalkerGraham Jindal

Carson70

Fiorina60

Kasich50

40

30

20

10

LESS KNOWN/UNDERPERFORMING POPULAR LOWER-RECOGNITION0

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Total Consideration % 1-3*Announced/Unannounced candidates are listed based on current status at the time of the poll and does not account for candidates with end of May and June planned announcements

*Conversion rate was calculated bydividing the total consideration (1-3)score by total awareness 1-7.

Tot

al A

war

enes

s %

Rubio 71%

Walker 71%

Carson 64%

Cruz 57%

Huckabee 55%

Bush 54%

Paul 50%

Jindal 46%

Perry 45%

Santorum 40%

Kasich 39%

Fiorina 38%

Christie 34%

Trump 24%

Graham 23%

Unannounced Candidates

Announced Candidates

HIGHEST CONSIDERATION V. AWARENESS

Below is the total consideration (1-3) for each candidate from our February poll and our current May poll.

0 0

Rubio Walker Bush Huckabee Cruz Carson Paul Perry Jindal Santorum Christie Fiorina Kasich Trump* Graham*

*not included in February Poll

FE

BR

UA

RY

MA

Y

16

2023 22

25

13

33

29

34 3335

32

43

37

4443

47 4748

43

51 50

5451

58

53

61

54

COMPARED CONSIDERATIONS

Below is the change in consideration(1-3) for each candidate from our February poll to our May poll.

FIORINA +12

RUBIO +7

CRUZ +5

PAUL +1

CARSON 0

HUCKABEE-1

-1

-1

JINDAL

KASICH

-3

-3

BUSH

SANTORUM

CHRISTIE-4

WALKER-5

PERRY-6

*Lindsey Graham and Donald Trump were not included in February Poll

CHANGE IN CONSIDERATION

reasonable compromises to get things done, or should

compromise, even if things don’t get done in the short-run?

Social Conservative

Mainstream

Get Thingsprinciples

44

Could Support Any

Libertarian

Unsure

CANDIDATE PREFERENCES

Generally speaking what type of

candidate do you prefer nominating?

FEBRUARY 29

MAY 28

24

25

20Tea Party

16

14

15

5

6

8

9

Do you think that the Republican nominee, if elected president, should reach out to Democrats and work to find

they try to lead on strong conservative principles and not

Stand by

Done

56

In our February poll, the party was split on this issue.

How would you describe your views in thearea of social/fiscal issues?

51

41

3432

17

12

532 1

VeryCons

SomewhatCons

Moderate SomewhatLib

VeryLib

17#

SO

CIA

L

FIS

CA

L

•  30% of Republican primary voters are both very socially and very fiscally conservative.

•  70% are both socially conservativeand fiscally conservative.•  16% are socially moderate or liberal and fiscally conservative.

ISSUE PREFERENCES

Below is the political breakdown of our designated clusters. The dotted circles represent theclusters from our February polling and the red circles represent where the clusters are now.

Social

Tea Party 17%

Conservatives

19% ModeratesUncommitted

Partisans

Percentage of cluster that chose “get things done”

Bubble sizes represent relative size of each cluster.

Per

cent

age

of c

lust

er th

at i

s bo

thve

ry f

isca

lly

and

soc

iall

y co

nse

rvat

ive

Since our February Poll, we no longer

conservatives. Our February group of

We have also seen the equilibrium of

16%

Conservative

s

see a cluster of mainstream

“establishment” voters has fragmented into what we show as mainstream

16% moderates and pragmatic partisans.

the party move slightly lessUndecided conservative and more pragmatic.

8%Dissatisfied 10%

14% Mainstream

Moderates Pragmatic

UPDATED POLITICAL CLUSTERING

We looked at each candidate’s total consideration score (1-3) andsubtracted their derived ballot score to show the potential growth of each

candidate. Below are the current and potential ballot results.

Current Derived Ballot Potential Growth

MARCO RUBIO

SCOTT WALKER

TED CRUZ

MIKE HUCKABEE

JEB BUSH

BEN CARSON

RAND PAUL

RICK PERRY

BOBBY JINDAL

RICK SANTORUM

CHRIS CHRISTIE

CARLY FIORINA

JOHN KASICH

DONALD TRUMP

LINDSEY GRAHAM*Candidates are rank ordered by potential growth.

9 52

9 44

5 43

9 41

11 40

8 39

6 38

35

1 3230

3 26

0 25

20

18

0 16

POTENTIAL GROWTH

We looked at the top derived ballot scores based on voter preference for a particular nominee:social conservative, mainstream, tea party, any, or libertarian candidate. Below are each of their top

6 choices and the number of undecided voters based on these nominee types.

Social Conservatives Mainstream Tea Party Could Support Any Libertarian

12 19 14 17 23HUCKABEE BUSH CRUZ RUBIO PAUL

11 11 11 11 12BUSH RUBIO WALKER

WALKER

BUSH

10 9 9 10 7WALKER

HUCKABEE CARSON BUSH WALKER

9 8 7 7 6CARSON WALKER

PAUL CARSON CARSON

9 7 7 6 6RUBIO CARSON HUCKABEE HUCKABEE CHRISTIE

4 7 5 6 5CRUZ CHRISTIE

RUBIO PAUL RUBIO

32 24 27 34 UNDECIDED 32UNDECIDED UNDECIDED UNDECIDED UNDECIDED

BALLOT AND NOMINEE TYPE

TED HAS REALGROWTH POTENTIALWITH EVANGELICALSAND LIBERTARIANS.

THIS PRIMARY ISREALLY DIFFERENT.

Schedule is significantly different than past years – favors more conservativecandidate

The first 14 states (through Super Tuesday) have 574 delegates (83%) that willcome from conservative states

At least six well-funded candidates – making it very difficult for Establishment todestroy the conservative challenger

The Calendar leans

SOUTHDELEGATES THROUGH SUPER TUESDAY

South

North

Total

477 69°/o

31 °/o

216

693

The Calendar leans

RIGHTDELEGATES THROUGH SUPER TUESDAY

Conservative

73°10

507

Moderate

27°10

186

Total

693

The Calendar leans

CRUZ

A number

ofwell-financed

candidates

Historically, the Establishment Candidate uses his financial resources to destroy the leading

challenger who has already been weakened by the other challenger candidates.

TED IS

WELL-POSITIONED

TO WIN THE

PRIMARY.

Cruz has been consistently right on the issuesthatmatte

rmost to primary voting blocs.

Sources: "https://www.conservativereview.com/2016-presidential-candidates"http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/WSJNBCpoll05042015.pdf " "

http://www.ontheissues.org/Jeb_Bush.htm "http://www.ontheissues.org/Scott_Walker.htm "

BUSH HUCKABEE CRUZ PAUL RUBIO WALKER

EDUCATION/ COMMON CORE

IMMIGRATION

SOCIAL / RELIGIOUS ISSUES

STRONG NATIONAL DEFENSE

DEFICIT / GOV’T SPENDING

OBAMACARE

SECOND AMENDMENT

Cruz campaign has the most

complete portfolio of “Assets”

Small DollarDonors

Large SuperPAC

Social MediaFollowers

Grass RootsSupport

SophisticatedData Analytics

CRUZ

BUSH ? NO NO

HUCKABEE NO NO

PAUL NO

RUBIO

WALKER ? ?

Cruz in best position to run an ‘Obama’ calibercampaign in 2016

•  A proven data-driven infrastructure that is a small dollar fundraising and voter ID

juggernaut. Eight full-time data scientists on staff.•  Raised $10 million from 90,000 donors in the first 100 days of campaign

•  Campaign managed by great executives not people who can write and produce TV

commercials

•  Creative/Messaging Team led by one of the world’s premier firms hired by the

Establishment to rebrand the Party - They want to work with Ted. The creative minds behind the Salvation Army Campaign, Chick-fil-A, Home Depot, Paul Harvey “I am afarmer Superbowl ad”

Cruz in best position to run an ‘Obama’ calibercampaign in 2016

•  Cruz has set a new standard for social media for Republicans both in the quantity of

follower but just as importantly the effectiveness of the interactions.•  Has 8 million email addresses

•  Grassroots organization is nationwide not just Iowa – the only candidate even close is

Paul

•  Great communicator that can appeal to young people

Ted showing great strengthin must-win

South

Carolina

Straw Poll Results

Greenville and Spartanburg victories are most impressive as they are twolargest and most populated GOP counties in the state

Greenville Anderson County Spartanburg Aiken Dorchester

Cruz 28% 27% 32% 36% 30%

Bush 5% 1% N/A N/A N/A

Carson 9% 1% N/A N/A 16%

Graham 3% 6% N/A N/A 4%

Huckabee 3% 9% N/A N/A N/A

Paul 3% 1% 7% 6% 7%

Rubio 8% N/A N/A N/A N/A

Walker 22% 25% 30% 32% 25%

Enhancing Cruz Brand

•  A powerful biography comes out in late June

•  Associated book tour

•  Richards Group hired along with a team of branding experts

•  Keep the Promise rolls out a positive campaign in key primary states around

the first debate

•  Real upside potential - Ted is polling very low with Evangelicals as many are

unaware of his deep faith

3 of the Top 10 Donors on Ted CruzTop Individual Donors to Conservative Super PACs – 2012

Rank Donor Total Given1 Adelson, Sheldon & Miriam $91,780,0002 Simmons, Harold $25,665,0003 Perry, Robert $23,450,0004 RickeEs, John $13,050,0005 Mercer, Robert $5,409,3546 Thiel, Peter $4,735,0007 Childs, John $4,225,0008 Perenchio, A Jerrold & Margaret $4,100,0009 Rowling, Robert $3,635,000

10 McNair, Robert $3,175,000

To elect a principled conservative, donors can’twait until November or December to decide

•  Television rates start to skyrocket in December making it impossible for

candidates to define themselves and their views so therefore are defined by the

Media

•  By January there is limited space at any price

•  In September the major news organizations will decide which reporters will

cover which candidates – the stronger the candidate is with money is the key factor to get the most well-known reporters which translates into earnedmedia

•  Fundraising success breeds fundraising success

•  The competition for grassroots leaders is intense and fundraising momentum

is a key driver

CANH E

WIN?