Can fisheries under catch shares better track management targets ?

Michael Melnychuk, Tim Essington, Olaf Jensen, Trevor Branch, Ana Parma, John Pope, Tony Smith,

Jason Link, Selina Heppell, Steve Martell

Can fisheries under catch shares

better track management targets ?

Pew Charitable Trusts WebinarNovember 3, 2011

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000N

umbe

r of c

atch

sha

re fi

sher

ies

Year of catch share implementation

0255075

100125150175 South America

South Africa

Europe

U.S. W coast/Alaska

U.S. E coast

Canada W coast

Canada E coast

Australia

New Zealand

0255075

100125150175

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

Year of catch share implementation

Year of fishery development

Catch shares → Allocation of quota to individuals such that competition among individuals is reduced

Ŷ Catch shares

Ŷ Partial catch shares

Ŷ Quota only

Ŷ Effort regulations

0 50 100 150

Benthic fishBethopelagic fish

Pelagic fishReef-associated fish

Invertebrates

Number of stocks in analyses

0

30

Alaska, U.S.

0

30

Australia

0

30

60New

Zealand

0

30

East coast Canada

0

30

West coast Canada

0

30

Europe

0

30

SouthAfrica

0

30

South America

0

30

Northeast & mid-Atlantic coast, U.S.

0

30

S. Atlantic coast & Gulf

of Mexico, U.S.

0

30

West coast U.S.

ŶC

atch

sha

res

ŶP

artia

l cat

ch s

hare

s

ŶQ

uota

onl

y

ŶE

ffort

regu

latio

ns

050

100

150

Ben

thic

fish

Bet

hope

lagi

c fis

hP

elag

ic fi

shR

eef-

asso

ciat

ed fi

shIn

verte

brat

es

Num

ber o

f sto

cks

in a

naly

ses

030

Ala

ska,

U

.S.

030

Aus

tralia

03060N

ew

Zeal

and

030

Eas

t coa

st

Can

ada

030

Wes

t coa

st

Can

ada

030

Eur

ope

030

Sou

thA

fric

a

030

Sou

th

Am

eric

a

030

Nor

thea

st &

m

id-A

tlant

ic

coas

t, U

.S.

030

S. A

tlant

ic

coas

t & G

ulf

of M

exic

o, U

.S.

030Wes

t coa

st

U.S

.

2000 – 2004

Do catch share fisheries better track management targets than fisheries not under catch shares ?

targets: annual quota (C/Q)exploitation rate target (F/Ftarget)

biomass target (B/Btarget)

Hypotheses:

Adherence to targets: catch shares > quota only > effort controls

Strength of response: C/Q > F/Ftarget > B/Btarget

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

0.5

0.75

1

1.25

1.5

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Target F

F

FF

: Fta

rget

4 metrics:

Mean

SD(target)

Minor exceedance

Major exceedance

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 70

2040

6080

100

0 1 2 3 40

2040

6080

100

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 705

1015202530

0 1 2 3 405

1015202530

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 70

10

20

30

40

0 1 2 3 40

10

20

30

40

0 2 4 60

20406080

100

0 1 2 3 40

20406080

100

0 2 4 605

1015202530

0 1 2 3 405

1015202530

0 2 4 60

10

20

30

40

0 1 2 3 40

10

20

30

40

Summary of response variables

C/Q

n = 259 stocks

F/Ftarget

n = 172

B/Btarget

n = 205

Freq

uenc

y

0 2 4 60

20406080

100

0 1 2 3 40

20406080

100

0 2 4 605

1015202530

0 1 2 3 405

1015202530

0 2 4 60

10

20

30

40

0 1 2 3 40

10

20

30

40

Mean C/Q Mean F/Ftarget Mean B/Btarget

Variables of interest

Catch control type

Other covariates accounted for:

Region

Taxonomic/habitat-

association

Year of fishery

development

Average catch

Lmax

Propensity for being under catch

shares

Responses Predictors

3 ratios with management targets:

Catch/quota

F/Ftarget

B/Btarget

4 metrics:

Mean

SD(target)

Minor exceedance

Major exceedance

X

-6 -4 -2 0-6 -4 -2 0-3 -2 -1 0-3 -2 -1 0

Catch sharesPartial catch shares

Quota only

Average catch

Development year

Lmax

Propensity score

Mean C/Q SD(target C/Q) Small overages (10%)

Large overages (25%)

Mean C/Q SD(target C/Q) Minor (10%) overages

Major (25%) overages

C/Q analysis


Quota only * *

-6 -4 -2 0-6 -4 -2 0-3 -2 -1 0-3 -2 -1 0


Quota only

Average catch

Development year

Lmax

Propensity score


Large overages (25%)

Coefficient estimate

-3 -2 -1 0 1-3 -2 -1 0 1-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5


Quota onlyEffort control

Average catch

Development year

Lmax

Propensity score

Mean F/F ref SD(target F/F ref)Minor overfishing

(10%)Major overfishing

(50%)


Quota onlyEffort regulations

Mean F/Ftarget SD(target F/Ftarget)Minor (10%)

over-exploitationMajor (50%)

over-exploitation

-5 -3 -1 1-5 -3 -1 1-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5



Average catch

Development year

Lmax

Propensity score

Mean F/F referenceSD(target F/F reference )

Minor overfishing (10%)

Major overfishing (50%)

*-3 -2 -1 0 1-3 -2 -1 0 1-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5



Average catch

Development year

Lmax

Propensity score



(50%)

-3 -2 -1 0 1-3 -2 -1 0 1-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5



Average catch

Development year

Lmax

Propensity score



(50%)

F/Ftarget analysis


-3 -2 -1 0 1-3 -2 -1 0 1-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5



Average catch

Development year

Lmax

Propensity score

Mean B/B ref SD(target B/B ref)Minor depletion

(10%)Major depletion

(50%)



Mean B/Btarget SD(target B/Btarget)Minor (10%)

depletionMajor (50%)

depletion

-3 -2 -1 0 1-3 -2 -1 0 1-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5



Average catch

Development year

Lmax

Propensity score



(50%)


B/Btarget analysis

Summary

• Compared to non-catch shares, catch share fisheries had:

• less variability in C/Q

• less frequent (major) overfishing

• Effects of both quota management and catch shares

• Catch shares are one of many possible tools that can be used to help meet

management objectives

• Next step: what particular aspects of catch share systems tend to lead

to the outcomes we’ve observed ?

Thank you:

Data collection: Kate Stanton, Rachel Finley, Jordan Watson

Funding: Lenfest Ocean Program

RAM Legacy database: Dan Ricard and all contributors

Interviews: U.S. – Alaska: J. DiCosimo, J. Heltzel, M. Fina, S. Hare, S. Kelley, J. Regnart; U.S. – W Coast: J. DeVore, M. Burner, C. Niles, I. Stewart; U.S. – NE/Mid-Atl. Coast: C. Legault, T. Chute, D. Hart, J. Idoine, G. Shepherd, B. Beal, N. Meserve, K. Taylor, B. Spear, D. Boelke, T. Hoff, K. West, J. McNamee; U.S. – SE Coast/G. Mexico: J. McGovern, P. Hood, A. Strelcheck, S. Gerhart, J. Kimmel, J. Smith; Canada – W Coast: A. Keizer, B. Ackerman, W. Li Ou, P. Ridings, J. Rogers, J. Schweigert, E. Wylie, M. James; Canada – E Coast: P. Cahill, V. Docherty, J. Hansen, D. Coffin, M. Baker, D. Ball, H. Bishop, J. Buie, S. Campana, G. Chouinard, J. Conlin, P. Couillard, A. Frechet, J. Gaudette, C. Hendry, P. Koeller, M. LeCouffre, L. Legere, D. Lemelin, B. Lester, C. MacDonald, B. Morin, M. Moriyasu, D. Pezzack, D. Roddick, A. Rumbolt, T. Siferd, J. Simon, S. Smith, G. Stevens, H. Stone, C. Waters, R. Federizon; Europe: J. Sigurjónsson, J. Horwood, B. Deas, A. LeGarrec, C. Olesen, M. Anderson, M. Welvaert, G. van Balsfoort, P. Breckling, N. Holdsworth; Australia: C. Dichmont, N. Klaer, G. Tuck, S. Wayte, S. Auld, S. Gaddes, S. Koh, S. Weekes, B. Taylor, K. Crosthwaite, T. Ward, C. Gardner; New Zealand: D. Foster, D. Sykes, G. Clement; Argentina: J. Hansen, A. Giussi, M. Renzi; South Africa: A. Brandao, D. Butterworth, S. Halloway, S. Johnston, C. de Moor, R. Rademeyer, G. Maharaj, R. Bross, A. Badenhorst.

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

0

10

20

30

40

0

1

2

3Catch shares

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

0

10

20

30

40

0

1

2

3Partial catch shares

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

0

10

20

30

40

0

1

2

3Quota only

0 1 2 3

0

10

20

30

40

0

2

4

6

8Catch shares

0 1 2 3

0

10

20

30

40

0

2

4

6


0 1 2 3

0

10

20

30

40

0

2

4

6

8Quota only

▬ Alaska, U.S.

▬ West coast, U.S.

▬ West coast, Canada

▬ East coast, Canada

▬ Europe

▬ Australia

▬ New Zealand

▬ Other

Probability density

Mean C/Q SD(target C/Q)

Catch/quota ratios

n = 130

n = 41

n = 88

▬ F

requ

ency

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 70

5

10

15

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5Catch shares

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 70

5

10

15

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5Partial catch shares

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 70

5

10

15

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5Quota only

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 70

5

10

15

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5Effort control

0 1 2 3 40

5

10

15

0.00.51.0

1.52.02.5Catch shares

0 1 2 3 40

5

10

15

0.00.51.0

1.52.02.5Partial catch shares

0 1 2 3 40

5

10

15

0.00.51.0

1.52.02.5Quota only

0 1 2 3 40

5

10

15

0.00.51.0

1.52.02.5Effort control

▬ Alaska, U.S.


▬ NE & mid-Atl., U.S

▬ Europe

▬ New Zealand

▬ Other

Probability density

Mean F/Ftarget SD(target F/Ftarget)

0 2 4 6024681012

0. 00. 51. 0

1. 5Cat ch s hare s

0 2 4 6024681012

0. 00. 5

1. 01. 5Par tial catch sh ares

0 2 4 6024681012

0. 00. 5

1. 0

1. 5Quo ta o nly

0 2 4 6024681012

0. 0

0. 51. 0

1. 5Effor t co ntrol

0 1 2 3 40510

15

0.00.51.0

1.5Cat ch share s

0 1 2 3 405

1015

0.00.5

1.01.5Pa rtial catch sh ares

0 1 2 3 405

1015

0.00.5

1.0

1.5Qu ota o nly

0 1 2 3 40

51015

0.0

0.51.0

1.5Effor t co ntrol

F/Ftarget ratiosn = 54

n = 24

n = 67

n = 27

▬ F

requ

ency

▬ Alaska, U.S.


▬ West coast, Canada

▬ NE & mid-Atl., U.S.

▬ Europe

▬ Australia

▬ New Zealand

▬ Other

▬ F

requ

ency

Probability density

Mean B/Btarget SD(target B/Btarget)

B/Btarget ratios

0 1 2 3 402468

1012

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5Catch shares

0 1 2 3 402468

1012

0.0

0.5

1.0


0 1 2 3 402468

1012

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5Quota only

0 1 2 3 402468

1012

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5Effort control

0 1 2 30

5

10

15

20

0

1

2Catch shares

0 1 2 30

5

10

15

20

0

1


0 1 2 30

5

10

15

20

0

1

2Quota only

0 1 2 30

5

10

15

20

0

1

2Effort control

0 1 2 3 402468

1012

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5Catch shares

0 1 2 3 402468

1012

0.0

0.5

1.0


0 1 2 3 402468

1012

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5Quota only

0 1 2 3 402468

1012

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5Effort control

0 1 2 30

5

10

15

20

0

1

2Catch shares

0 1 2 30

5

10

15

20

0

1


0 1 2 30

5

10

15

20

0

1

2Quota only

0 1 2 30

5

10

15

20

0

1

2Effort control

0 1 2 3 402468

1012

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5Catch shares

0 1 2 3 402468

1012

0.0

0.5

1.0


0 1 2 3 402468

1012

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5Quota only

0 1 2 3 402468

1012

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5Effort control

0 1 2 30

5

10

15

20

0

1

2Catch shares

0 1 2 30

5

10

15

20

0

1


0 1 2 30

5

10

15

20

0

1

2Quota only

0 1 2 30

5

10

15

20

0

1

2Effort control

0 1 2 3 402468

1012

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5Catch shares

0 1 2 3 402468

1012

0.0

0.5

1.0


0 1 2 3 402468

1012

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5Quota only

0 1 2 3 402468

1012

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5Effort control

0 1 2 30

5

10

15

20

0

1

2Catch shares

0 1 2 30

5

10

15

20

0

1


0 1 2 30

5

10

15

20

0

1

2Quota only

0 1 2 30

5

10

15

20

0

1

2Effort control

n = 67

n = 28

n = 82

n = 28

Catch share propensity scores

• Controls for non-random application of catch share “treatments”

• Logistic regression:

CS ~ Region + Habitat + avCatch + devYear + Lmax

• Use estimated coefficients to predict probability of each fishery

being under full catch shares during 2000–2004

• Use propensity scores as covariates in subsequent analyses

0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1

Canada-West coastAustralia

New ZealandSouth Africa

Canada-East coastSouth America

EuropeU.S.-Alaska

U.S.-NE/mid-Atl. U.S.-West coast

U.S.-S. Atl. /G. Mex

0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1

Benthopelagic fishInvertebrates

Benthic fishPelagic fish

Reef-associated fish

0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1



Catch share propensity scores

Average propensity score

Region

Habitat

Catch control

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

0 5 10 15

Pro

pens

ity s

core

ln(average catch during 2000-2004)

Alaska

US W coast

Can W coast

Can E coast

US NE coast

US SE /GoMex

Europe

S. Africa

S. America

Australia

New Zealand

Propensity score matching

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

0 5 10 15

Pro

pens

ity s

core

ln(average catch during 2000-2004)

Can W coast

Australia

New Zealand

S Africa

Can E coast

S America

Europe

Alaska

US NE coast

US W coast

US SE /GoMex

● Actual full CS

X Actual non-CS

-1 -0.5 0 0.5

Propensity score matching

Mean C/QSD(target C/Q)

Minor (10%) overagesMajor (25%) overages

Mean F/Ftarget

SD(target F/Ftarget)Minor (10%) overfishingMajor (50%) overfishing

Mean B/Btarget

SD(target B/Btarget)Minor (10%) depletionMajor (50%) depletion

-1 0 1

Mean C/QSD(target C/Q)

P(C/Q > 1.1)P(C/Q > 1.25)

Mean F/FMSYSD(target F/FMSY)

P(F/FMSY > 1.1)P(F/FMSY > 1.5)

Mean B/BMSYSD(target B/BMSY)

P(B/BMSY > 1.1)P(B/BMSY > 1.5)

2.5th %ile 97.5th %ile

Grand mean of:

ResponseCS – ResponseNon-CS

Mean difference of response variable

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

0.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91

Proportion of stocks in some undesirable state

Pro

babi

lity

of e

xcee

danc

e

C/Q

F/Ftarget

B/Btarget

(OK) (Bad)

Ŷ Catch shares

Ŷ Partial catch shares

Ŷ Quota only

Ŷ Effort regulations

0 50 100 150

Benthic fishBethopelagic fish


Invertebrates

Number of stocks in analyses

0

30

Alaska, U.S.

0

30

Australia

0

30

60New

Zealand

0

30

East coast Canada

0

30

West coast Canada

0

30

Europe

0

30

SouthAfrica

0

30

South America

0

30

Northeast & mid-Atlantic coast, U.S.

0

30

S. Atlantic coast & Gulf

of Mexico, U.S.

0

30

West coast U.S.

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2

Pro

babi

lity

of e

xcee

danc

e

'OK' 'Bad'F/Freference

-6 -4 -2 0-6 -4 -2 0-3 -2 -1 0-3 -2 -1 0


Quota only

Average catch

Development year

Lmax

Propensity score


Large overages (25%)Mean C/Q SD(target C/Q)

Minor (10%) overages

Major (25%) overages

Fixed effect

coefficients(full model)

C/Q


Quota only

Average catchDevelopment year

Lmax

Propensity score

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2-3 -2 -1 0 1 2-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5

Alaska, U.S.West coast U.S.

West coast CanadaEast coast Canada

EuropeSouth Africa

AustraliaNew Zealand

Other

Benthic fishBenthopelagic fish


Invertebrates

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2-3 -2 -1 0 1 2-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5


West coast CanadaEast coast Canada

EuropeSouth Africa

AustraliaNew Zealand

Other



Invertebrates

Random effect

conditional modes

* *

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2-3 -2 -1 0 1 2-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5


West coast CanadaNE & mid-Atl., U.S.

EuropeNew Zealand

Other



Invertebrates

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2-3 -2 -1 0 1 2-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5


West coast CanadaNE & mid-Atl., U.S.

EuropeNew Zealand

Other



Invertebrates

-3 -2 -1 0 1-3 -2 -1 0 1-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5



Average catch

Development year

Lmax

Propensity score



(50%)F/Ftarget




Lmax

Propensity score

Mean F/Ftarget SD(target F/Ftarget)Minor (10%)

over-exploitationMajor (50%)

over-exploitation

Fixed effect


Random effect

conditional modes

-5 -3 -1 1-5 -3 -1 1-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5



Average catch

Development year

Lmax

Propensity score

Mean F/F referenceSD(target F/F reference )

Minor overfishing (10%)

Major overfishing (50%)

-3 -2 -1 0 1-3 -2 -1 0 1-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5



Average catch

Development year

Lmax

Propensity score



(50%)B/Btarget




Lmax

Propensity score

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2-3 -2 -1 0 1 2-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5


West coast CanadaEast coast CanadaNE & mid-Atl., U.S.

EuropeAustralia

New ZealandOther



Invertebrates

-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2-3 -2 -1 0 1 2-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5


West coast CanadaEast coast CanadaNE & mid-Atl., U.S.

EuropeAustralia

New ZealandOther



Invertebrates

-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5

Mean B/Btarget SD(target B/Btarget)Minor (10%)

depletionMajor (50%)

depletion

Fixed effect


Random effect

conditional modes

Filters applied

• Excluded oceanic sharks/tunas

• Excluded rarely targeted stocks

• Excluded stocks with catch shares or TACs established during 2000-2004

• Excluded stocks with missing time series data or reference points

• Excluded stocks whose assessments were not trustworthy (F, B only)

• Excluded stocks with >50% landings in recreational sector

• Excluded fisheries under moratorium 2000-2004 (C/Q, F only)

Sensitivity tests

• Removed propensity score covariate

• Excluded stocks whose Ftarget or Btarget reference points were estimated with Schaefer model

• Excluded ICES/NAFO-managed stocks

• Excluded stocks with C/Q < 0.5

• Excluded stocks under moratorium (biomass analyses)

• Considered only full catch share and quota-only categories

big reduction in sample

size

C/Q F/Ftarget B/Btarget

Catch shares 130 54 67

Partial catch shares 41 24 28

Quota only 88 67 82

Effort regulations ─ 27 28

Total 259 172 205

Number of stocks included in analyses after filtering

Mixed-effects model analysis

Y ~ (CControl + PS) + avCatch + devYear + Lmax + Region + Habitat

Y ~ (CControl + PS) + devYear + Lmax + Region + Habitat

Y ~ (CControl + PS) + avCatch + devYear + Region + Habitat

Y ~ (CControl + PS) + avCatch + Lmax + Region + Habitat

Y ~ (CControl + PS) + Region + Habitat

Y ~ Intercept + avCatch + devYear + Lmax + Region + Habitat

Y ~ Intercept + devYear + Lmax + Region + Habitat

Y ~ Intercept + avCatch + devYear + Region + Habitat

Y ~ Intercept + avCatch + Lmax + Region + Habitat

Y ~ Intercept + Region + Habitat

Catch control

included

Catch control

not included

Type of response variable :

Metric for each response variable :

Current catch to current quota

(C/Q)

Current exploitation rate to target

exploitation rate(F/Ftarget)

Current biomass to target biomass

(B/Btarget)

5-year meane.g. mean C/Q

Standard deviation around targete.g. SD(target C/Q)

Exceedance of minor undesirable thresholde.g. P(C/Q > 1.1)

Exceedance of major undesirable thresholde.g. P(C/Q > 1.25)

Can fisheries under catch shares better track management targets ?

Documents

noncatch shares

shares quota

quota management

management objectives

smith canada w coast

cq fftarget bbtarget

target ffff

bbtarget analysis10summary