Can Energy Production Scale?

Can Energy Can Energy Production Scale?Production Scale?

Choices and Challenges for Choices and Challenges for the Current Centurythe Current Century

Our Waveform of Consumption

Three Main Challenges

Electricity Production: per capita consumption is increasing faster than energy efficiency

Electricity Distribution: Aging grid already at capacity

Fuel Usage: 3.5 Billion gallons a day (would be more if not refinery limited) 400 million gallons a day in the US

Production and Consumption on the Century Timescale

A Century of Change A Century of Change (1900 (=1) vs 2000)(1900 (=1) vs 2000)

• Industrial Output: 40

• Marine Fish Catch: 35

• CO2 Emissions: 17

• Total Energy Use: 16

• Coal Production: 7

• World Population: 4

No More Fish by

2100 at this rate

of Consumption

Resultant Global InequitiesResultant Global Inequities

Global Consumer Energy Density Global Consumer Energy Density MapMap

Waveforms of ConsumptionWaveforms of Consumption

The Terrawatt Power ScaleThe Terrawatt Power Scale

Currently we are a 14.5 TW PlanetCurrently we are a 14.5 TW Planet

The Earth Limited Scale Scaling from the last century leads to the

absurd: 235 TW of required Power 40,000 more of the largest concrete

structure in the US 50 Million of these requiring a total of 75

billion tons of Steel (not that much left) 10 Million Sq. km of these 10 Billion of these (1 per person?)

More Earth LimitationsMore Earth Limitations

Total fuel cell production limited by Total fuel cell production limited by amount of accessible platinum on the amount of accessible platinum on the planet; 500 million vehicles planet; 500 million vehicles lithospheric lithospheric exhaustion in 15 yearsexhaustion in 15 years

Higher efficiency PVs limited by accessible Higher efficiency PVs limited by accessible amount of Cadmium or Gallium or Indiumamount of Cadmium or Gallium or Indium

Conventional Transmission media limited Conventional Transmission media limited by available new Copperby available new Copper

Clear need for Carbon based materials Clear need for Carbon based materials (fiber, nanotubes) to overcome this.(fiber, nanotubes) to overcome this.

Business As Usual ScenarioBusiness As Usual Scenario

Population stabilizes to 10-12 billion Population stabilizes to 10-12 billion by the year 2100 by the year 2100

Total world energy use from 2000 to Total world energy use from 2000 to 2100 is 4000 Terra Watt Years (Current 2100 is 4000 Terra Watt Years (Current world use is about 14.5 TW years)world use is about 14.5 TW years)

40 TWyr is compromise between 40 TWyr is compromise between current 14.5 TWyr and scaled 235 current 14.5 TWyr and scaled 235 TWyrTWyr

Ultimately Recoverable Ultimately Recoverable ResourceResource

Conventional Conventional Oil/GasOil/Gas

Unconventional OilUnconventional Oil CoalCoal Methane ClathratesMethane Clathrates Oil ShaleOil Shale Uranium OreUranium Ore Geothermal Steam Geothermal Steam

- conventional- conventional

1000 TWy (1/4 1000 TWy (1/4 need)need)

20002000 50005000 20,00020,000 30,00030,000 2,0002,000 4,0004,000

Other PossibilitiesOther Possibilities

Breeder ReactorsBreeder Reactors Hot Dry RockHot Dry Rock Sunlight/OTECSunlight/OTEC Wind EnergyWind Energy Gulf StreamGulf Stream Global BiomassGlobal Biomass

2,000,000 TWy2,000,000 TWy 1,000,0001,000,000 9,000,0009,000,000 200,000200,000 140,000140,000 10,00010,000

In Principle, Incident Energy is Sufficient but how to recover and distribute it in the most cost effective manner?

Dollars Per Megawatt per unit Dollars Per Megawatt per unit Land use per unit Material UseLand use per unit Material Use

20 KW power buoy 20 KW power buoy 5 MW Wind Turbine5 MW Wind Turbine LNG closed cycleLNG closed cycle Wind FarmWind Farm PV FarmPV Farm Stirling FarmStirling Farm Pelamis FarmPelamis Farm

850 Tons per MW850 Tons per MW 100 Tons per MW100 Tons per MW 1500 MW sq km 1500 MW sq km 600 MW sq km600 MW sq km 50 MW sq km50 MW sq km 40 MW sq km40 MW sq km 30 MW sq km30 MW sq km

The US in milli-ChinasThe US in milli-Chinas

Steel Use: 1992 (1400) 1998 (1120) 2004 Steel Use: 1992 (1400) 1998 (1120) 2004 (320)(320)

Coal Use: 1992 (923) 1998 (780) 2004 Coal Use: 1992 (923) 1998 (780) 2004 (670)(670)

Oil Use: 1992 (5600) 1998 (3600) 2004 Oil Use: 1992 (5600) 1998 (3600) 2004 (2500)(2500)

China: Adding 1 new 1000 MW coal fired power plant every 10 days

China: Will exceed US GHG Emissions Summer 2008

China: Private Vehicle Fleet growing at least at 10% per year

The Need for BioFuelsThe Need for BioFuels

India/China Growth India/China Growth New Fuels New Fuels RequiredRequired

Total Possible YieldTotal Possible Yield

• 10 kg of corn = 1 gallon of ethanol10 kg of corn = 1 gallon of ethanol

• 1 ideal acre of corn = 850 gallons 1 ideal acre of corn = 850 gallons but we but we need 200 billion gallons annuallyneed 200 billion gallons annually

• 1 practical acre = 2/3 of an ideal acre1 practical acre = 2/3 of an ideal acre

• Required acreage is 350 million acres of Required acreage is 350 million acres of crop landcrop land

• 450 million acres in the US so 78% needed 450 million acres in the US so 78% needed for this enterprise for this enterprise not feasible for grain not feasible for grain based ethanolbased ethanol

100 Billion Gallons by 2050100 Billion Gallons by 2050

• Switchgrass as cellulosic ethanol: Switchgrass as cellulosic ethanol: Current average yields are five dry tons Current average yields are five dry tons per acre.per acre.

• With improved breeding techniques this With improved breeding techniques this couldcould increase to 15 dry tons per acre increase to 15 dry tons per acre

• 88 Million acres is then needed to 88 Million acres is then needed to produce the equivalent of 100 billion produce the equivalent of 100 billion gallons of gasoline gallons of gasoline

Requirements/ExpectationsRequirements/Expectations

• 1 billion dollar annual investment in research 1 billion dollar annual investment in research and testing needed to get to 15 tons per acreand testing needed to get to 15 tons per acre

• 0.6 – 0.9 $ production cost per gallon by 2015 0.6 – 0.9 $ production cost per gallon by 2015 (compared to about $1.30 now for crude oil) (compared to about $1.30 now for crude oil)

• If fuel economy improves to 50 mpg by 2030 If fuel economy improves to 50 mpg by 2030 and if we devote 10% of available crop land to and if we devote 10% of available crop land to grow fuel on then just about ½ of our fuel grow fuel on then just about ½ of our fuel requirements will be met with “switchgrass”requirements will be met with “switchgrass”

The Necessary New Smart GridThe Necessary New Smart Grid

Electricity DistributionElectricity Distribution

Electricity is an energy carrier like Electricity is an energy carrier like HydrogenHydrogen

US presently operates 250,000 km of > US presently operates 250,000 km of > 230KV transmission lines230KV transmission lines

Transmission line costs are excessiveTransmission line costs are excessive Superconducting cable transmits 15 times Superconducting cable transmits 15 times

more current per cross-sectional area as more current per cross-sectional area as conventional transmission linesconventional transmission lines

Transmission Losses are now at about 10% Transmission Losses are now at about 10% per yearper year

Electricity StorageElectricity Storage

Electricity is difficult to store Electricity is difficult to store new new storage methods mandatorystorage methods mandatory

50 GWH battery 50 GWH battery stores 10% of US stores 10% of US demand for 1 hourdemand for 1 hour

100 Million KG of Advanced Batteries 100 Million KG of Advanced Batteries (1 Billion KG of AA’s)(1 Billion KG of AA’s)

300,000 grid connected fused silica 300,000 grid connected fused silica flywheels of radius 1 meter and width flywheels of radius 1 meter and width 0.25 meters0.25 meters

Choices and Estimated CostsChoices and Estimated Costs

Pumped HydroPumped Hydro Li-IonLi-Ion FlywheelsFlywheels CAESCAES SMESSMES UltracapacitorsUltracapacitors

800 $/KW 12 $/KWH800 $/KW 12 $/KWH 300 $/KW 200 $/KWH300 $/KW 200 $/KWH 350 $/KW 500 $/KWH350 $/KW 500 $/KWH 750 $/KW 12 $/KWH750 $/KW 12 $/KWH 650 $/KW 1500 $/KWH650 $/KW 1500 $/KWH 300 $/KW 3600 $/KWH300 $/KW 3600 $/KWH

The Smart GridThe Smart Grid

Improved transmission, capacity, grid Improved transmission, capacity, grid control and stabilitycontrol and stability

Better management of peak loadsBetter management of peak loads Fully distributed; each node Fully distributed; each node

(household) can potentially buy, sell, (household) can potentially buy, sell, or store electricityor store electricity

Merger with network protocolsMerger with network protocols Scale: 1 billion transactions per Scale: 1 billion transactions per

minute minute good modeling problem! good modeling problem!

SummarySummary

• Remember, we once went to the moon• The scale of this challenge is large (~50 TWyr) and

requires 20-30 year implementation timescale• Think seriously about using Hydrogen as a proxy for

transmission of electricity (Aleutians; OTEC)• Significant Increased fuel economy is absolutely

essential (50 mpg pods)• No one technological solution (e.g. fusion) yet exists

need Network of regionally based alternative energy facilities