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Cameron WakeCarbon Solutions New England
Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, & Space (EOS)University of New Hampshire
Twitter: @TheClimateDr
6 Dec 2012US Green Building Council
NH Chapter Annual Meeting
Its Not Oil and Water:Blending Climate Solutions &
Sustainable Development
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Were You Ready for the Storm?
NASA Earth Observatory Image 30 October 2011
Were You Ready for the Storm?
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“Although they produce distinct types of challenges, climate change, energy security, and economic stability are inextricably linked.”
http://www.defense.gov/qdr/
Quadrennial Defense Review 2011
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Mauna Loa, Hawaii CO2 Record 1958 - 2012
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/#mlo_data
Mauna Loa, Hawaii CO2 Record 1958 - 2012
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200
400
600
800
1000
0100,000200,000300,000400,000
carb
on
dio
xid
e (
ppm
v)
Years Before 2100 AD
Vostok Ice Core
Vostok CO2 Record
IPCC 2001
Current
Clean Energy & Efficiency
Business as Usual
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National Fossil Fuel Carbon Emissions: 1950-2008
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/
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Arctic Sea Ice Extent 18 Sept. 2012
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http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/
Global Temperature 1880-2010(meteorological stations)
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Burakowski et al., 2008, JGR
Northeast Winter Temperature Trends 1895-2008
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Burakowski et al., 2008, JGR
Northeast Winter Temperature Trends 1965-2008
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Durham, NH Lawrence, MA
4 Inch Precipitation Events by Decade 1948 - 2007
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Costs from Presidentially Declared DisastersAnd Emergency Declarations in NH
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Relative Sea Level Rise 1856 - 2011
Nantucket, MA 18 Apr 2007
Saco. Maine 17 Apr 2007
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Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment
• Collaboration between Union of Concerned Scientists and 50 independent scientists
• Geographic ScopeNine Northeast states, from Maine to Pennsylvania
• Peer ReviewClimate Dynamics, 200714 papers in Adaptation and
Mitigation of Climate Change, 2008
www.climatechoices.org
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Projecting Future Climate Change for the Northeast:Greenhouse Gas Emission Scenarios
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Projecting Future Climate Change for the Northeast:Rising Annual Temperatures
2oF warming since 1970
Higher: 6.5-12.5oF
Lower: 3.5-6.5oF
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Summer heat index:How hot summers will “feel” in
New Hampshire
Da
ys p
er y
ear
ove
r 90
oF
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Extreme Precipitation Events Increase
• Heavy rainfall events are becoming more frequent across the Northeast
• Under both emissions scenarios-rainfall is expected to become more intense-periods of heavy rainfall are expected to become more frequent
credit: Associated Press
Bridge over Axe Handle Brook, Rochester, NHMay 2006.
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Vulnerability of Ski Resorts to Climate Change
Higher Emissions
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0
16
32
47
63
79
Sea
Leve
l Cha
nge
(inch
es)
8
24
40
55
71
Projection of Sea Level Rise from 1990 to 2100
Vermeer and Rahmstorf (2009) Global sea level linked to global temperature. PNAS 106, 21527–21532.
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Portsmouth NH
7 feet storm surge 5 feet SLR12 feet flood height
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Cameron WakeElizabeth BurakowskiEric KelseyCarbon Solutions New EnglandInstitute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and SpaceUniversity of New Hampshire
Katharine HayhoeAnne StonerTexas Tech University
Chris WatsonEllen DouglasUniv. of Massachussets Boston
http://CarbonSolutionsNE.org
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NH Climate Action Plan
More info at: http://CarbonSolutionsNE.org
• One of the largest, most diverse collections of leading NH citizens
• Promotes growth of new jobs and renewable energy development
• Reduces energy costs
• Identifies 67 recommended actions buildingselectricity generation,transportation & land usenatural resourcesgovernment actionadaptation
• Reduce greenhouse gas emissions44% below 2005 levels by 202586% below 2005 levels by 2050
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Overarching Strategies to Achieve Goals
1. Maximize energy efficiency in buildings & transportation
2. Increase renewable & low-emitting heat & electric power sources
3. Protect our natural resources to enhance the amount of carbon sequestration
4. Develop an integrated education, outreach and workforce training program
5. Develop plans to adapt to existing and potential climate change
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New Hampshire Climate Action Plan (March 2009)
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New Hampshire Economic Benefits vs Avoided CO2e Emissions in 2025
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Cumulative Costs – NH Residential Building Renovations
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NH Gross State Products Vs. Greenhouse Gas Emissions
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Stanford Social Innovation Review, Fall 2012
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Percentage of Americans who believe anthropogenic global warming has already begun, according to their political party identification
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Were You Ready for the Storm?
Satellite image of Hurricane Sandy, 28 Oct 2012. NASA image.
Were You Ready for the Storm?