1 California Water Plan Update 2003 & Beyond California Water and Environmental Modeling Forum Annual Meeting February 25, 2004
Jan 09, 2016
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California Water PlanUpdate 2003
& Beyond
California Water and Environmental Modeling Forum
Annual Meeting
February 25, 2004
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Talk Overview
• Part 1 - Preparing the Plan
• Part 2 - Developing a New Analytical Framework for the California Water Plan
• Discussion– Anatomy of Models– CWEMF Role with Long Term Framework
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Part 1 – Preparing the Plan
• Water Plan Update Overview & Process
• New Planning Framework
• Limitations & Phased Work Plan
• Content & Document Organization
• Key Themes, Findings & Rec’d Actions
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Water Plan Overview
• Program 10 > 1 of 6 DWR Goals• Required by law (Water Code)• First Water Plan -Bulletin 3 (1957)• Seven Updates (Bulletin 160)• Update every five years
– Last in 1998 Next in 2003
• State’s Master or Strategic Plan
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California Water Plan• Purpose
– Strategic plan for state policy/decision makers– Guide for managing & developing CA water– Framework for investing public funds
• Content– Basic information - water resources & system– Current water supplies and uses– Scenarios for future supplies and use– Recommendations (Strategies & State Role)
• Footnotes– No mandates; No spending authorizations– Not project or site specific; No CEQA
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Water Plan Update 2003DWR Goals & Approach
• Goals– Meet Water Code requirements– Expand public input– Develop a “useful” plan
• Approach– Open & transparent public process– Seek collaborative recommendations– Strategic Planning model; New framework
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www.waterplan.water.ca.gov
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New Planning Framework
• 65-member Public Advisory Committee
• Water Portfolios using 1998, 2000, 2001 data
• Regional Reports reflecting regional challenges, goals, and planning efforts
• Multiple Scenarios to identify and plan for future uncertainties and risks
• Many Strategies to meet future water demands while sustaining our resources and economy
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Issues & Challenges
• Significant data and information gaps
• Analytical tools for long-range planning
are not fully developed
• Revising process impacted schedule
• Reduced DWR staff & budget
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Phased Work Plan• June 2004
– Public Review Draft of Water Plan Update
– Narratives of four 2030 Future Scenarios
– Short & Long-term Work Plan for Data & Tools
• December 2004
– Public Comment & Release Final Update
– Select methods to quantify 2030 Scenarios
• 2005 (Begins Update 2008)
– Conduct Quantitative Studies for 2030 Scenarios
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Five Volumes of Update• Vol. 1 – Strategic Plan
– Findings, Recommendations & Implementation
• Vol. 2 – 25 Resource Mgmt Strategies
• Vol. 3 – 12 Regional Reports– 10 Hydrologic Regions, Mt. Counties & Delta
• Vol. 4 – Reference Guide– Supplemental articles
• Vol. 5 – Technical Guide (Electronic Only)– Documentation for data, methods & tools
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Volume 1 – Strategic Plan• Foreword & Users Guide
• Executive Summary
• Findings & Recommended Actions
• Ch 1 – Plan Overview
• Ch 2 – CA Water Today (Statewide View)
• Ch 3 – Planning for an Uncertain Future
• Ch 4 – Regional Integrated Resource Plng
• Ch 5 – State Role & Responsibilities
• Ch 6 – Implementation & Finance
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Volume 2Resource Management Strategies (Definition, Current Level, 2030 Potential & Cost,
Benefits, Issues & Recommendations)
1. Agricultural Use Efficiency2. Conj. Mgmt/GW Storage3. Conveyance4. Desalination5. Drinking Water Treatment &
Distribution6. Economic Incentives Policy7. Ecosystem Restoration8. Floodplain Management9. Groundwater/Aquifer
Remediation10.Matching WQ to Use11.Pollution Prevention12.Precipitation Enhancement
13.Recharge Area Protection14.Recycled Municipal Water15.Surface Storage – Bay-Delta
Program16.Surface Storage –Region/Local17.System Reoperation18.Urban Land Use Management19.Urban Runoff Management20.Urban Water Use Efficiency21.Water-Dependent Recreation22.Water Transfers23.Watershed Management24.Working Lands Management25.Other Strategies (R&D)
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Volume 3 - Regional ReportsRegional Perspective
• Outline– Setting– Existing “State of the Region”– Looking to the Future
• Featuring– Flow Diagrams, Water Balances for 1998, 2000 &
2001– Water Quality summary– Regional water planning efforts– Examples of water management & restoration
programs
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Water Plan Vision for 2030
California has adequate, reliable
and sustainable water
of suitable quality
for all beneficial uses.
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Water Plan Goals for 2030 Improved quality of life for projected 53 million Californians. Sustained economic growth, business vitality and agricultural industry. Protected and restored ecosystems. Environmental justice for all Californians. Stronger State leadership, coordination, and oversight and more public
investment. Regions play the central role in integrated water & resource planning. Local and regional planners diversify management strategies. Local govmts and agencies improve coordination of land use planning
with water planning and management. State-supported investigations, and R&D of promising new technologies. Planners make more informed (less risky) decisions. Fewer gaps in data & analytical tools; better access to information.
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Water Management Objectives • Integrate & optimize management strategies• Provide water supply benefits• Increase drought resiliency• Improve water quality• Increase operational flexibility & efficiency• Improve flood control• Increase energy generation or reduce use• Increase recreation opportunities• Enhance instream, riparian or terrestrial ecosystems• Reduce groundwater overdraft• Reduce pollution• Reduce runoff, drainage or tailwater• Reduce uncertainty & risk
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Key Themes, Findings & Rec’d• State leadership & oversight for statewide
assessments, protecting public assets; doing what regions can’t do by and for themselves
• State promote & assist regionally-based, integrated, multi-resource planning
• State fill data/tool gaps & support R&D• Regions diversify water portfolios choosing
from 25 resource management strategies• Locals improve coordination of land use
planning with water planning/management
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3.5 to 6 MAF Additional Demandsfor 2030 Current Trends Scenario
• To maintain QOL for 17 million more Californians– Additional 2 - 3 million acre-feet
• To recover groundwater overdraft– Additional 1 - 2 million acre-feet
• To protect & restore degraded ecosystems– Additional 0.5 – 1 million acre-feet
• To sustain econ growth & agricultural industry– About the same as now
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DRAFT 1/30/2004
Implementation and Investment Guide to 2030
Implementation and Investment Guide Water Management Objectives
Resource Management
Strategy, Activity or Program
Potential 2030 Supply
Benefit million ac-ft
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pact
Estm Cost
Billion
$
Draft 2-23-04 Note: Shaded boxes to be filled.
For Discussion Purposes Only
Has not been approved by DWR management or Advisory Committee
1-Page Version
Implementation Ag Lands Stewardship
Ag Use Efficiency 0.2 - 0.5 (a) Conjunctive Mgmt & GW Storage
0.5 - 1.5 (b) 1.3 - ?
Conveyance Desalination (Brackish Water)
0.1 - 0.3 (c) 0.2 - 1.6
Desalination (Ocean Water)
0.2 (c) 0.7 – 1.3
Drinking Water Treatment & Distrib.
Economic Incentives (o) (p) Ecosystem Restoration
Floodplain Mgmt
GW/Aquifer Remediation
Matching Quality to Use
Pollution Prevention
Precip Enhancement 0.3 – 0.4 (j) 0.10 - 0.15
Recharge Area Protect
Recycled Muni Water 0.9 - 1.4 (d) 6.0 - 9.0
Surface Storage 0.4 – 1.0 (l) 2.9 – 5.7
System Reoperation 0.1 – 0.3 (e)
Urban Land Use Mgmnt
Urban Runoff Mgmt
Urban Use Efficiency 1.5 – 2.5 (f)
Water Transfers 0.2 – 1.1 (g)
Water-Dependent Rec Watershed Management
Other Strategies Vary by strategy (see narrative)
Planning, Research & Development , and Pilot Studies to Reduce Uncertainty and Integrate Strategies Regional Integrated Resource Planning & Mgmt
Statewide Water Planning
0.12
Data & Tool Improvement
0.25
Research & Development
Science
Support all objectives and strategies
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Contact Information
Kamyar Guivetchi, P.E.Manager, Statewide Water Planning
DWR, Planning & Local Assistance
901 P St., 2nd Floor, Sacramento
(916) 653-3937
kamyarg @ water.ca.gov
www.WaterPlan.water.ca.gov
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Part 2Developing a New Analytical
Framework for the CWP• Background and Context• Anatomy of Models• Proposed CWP Framework• Proposed Conceptual Model• Principles for framework• Short Term Approach and Beyond• Discussion and Possible Roles for CWEMF
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Last Year at Asilomar …
IWR-MAIN
CALAG
Hydrology 2030
Urban water use
Ag water use
CALSIM
LCPSIM Cost of conservation
SW
P &
CV
P imp
orts
Un
used d
eliveries
SW
P&
CV
P i
mp
orts
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What has Happened Since?• Advisory committee was not comfortable with
proposed approach– Didn’t fully support or understand some of the
models and modeling – Disagreed with using a single vision of future
conditions
• DWR lacked resources to address problems within schedule
• DWR decided to take a slower, fundamentally different approach rather than disregard feedback
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Where We Are Now
• State has leadership role in evaluating statewide water management strategies
• Complexity of CWP has increased
• DWR has held numerous public workshops to develop a proposed analytical framework
• Proposal has not been presented to or approved by full Advisory Committee
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Anatomy of Models(Developed by Ken Kirby)
• Conceptual model
• Theoretical model
• Numerical model
• Data
• Data management
• Software
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Definitions
• Conceptual Model - A description or analogy used to help visualize something that cannot be directly observed
• Theoretical Model - A system of postulates, data, and inferences presented as a description of an entity or state of affairs
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Definitions
• Numerical Model - An analytical tool that employs quantitative approximations to the solutions of mathematical problems
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Proposed CWP Framework
Identify Required Information
Develop Conceptual Models
Develop Theoretical Models
Develop Short Term Approach
Conduct Quantitative Analysis for Update 2008
2003 - 2004
2004 - 2006
2005 - 2007
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Conceptual Model
Water Management SystemWater Management System
Climate Conditions
Climate Conditions
Economic and Performance Indicators
Economic and Performance Indicators
Ag/Urban Demands Ag/Urban Demands
Ecosystem DemandsEcosystem Demands
Ecosystem Wants
Ecosystem Wants
Ag/Urban Wants
Ag/Urban Wants
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Straw Proposal for Presenting Conceptual Models
Agricultural Water Demands
Urban Water Demands
Required Input
DesiredOutput
Required Input
DesiredOutput
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Principles for Development and Application of Tools and Data
• Strategy
• Transparency
• Long-Term Viability
• Coverage
• Accountability and Quality Control
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Short Term Approach
Propose changes to existing tools and data
Develop list of data needs
Modify existing tools and data
Inventory analytical tools using “Anatomy of Models”
Compare theoretical models to existing tools, data and conceptual models
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Quantitative Analysis for Water Plan Update 2008
Future scenarios
Performance measures
Interpret and describe results
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Update 2008 and Beyond
• Improve existing tools using conceptual model
• Fill data gaps
• Develop Water Plan Information Exchange (Water PIE)
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Discussion and Possible Roles for CWEMF
• Anatomy of Models and CWP proposed framework
• Detailed inventory of existing tools and data
• Proposed conceptual models, desired output, and required input
• Evaluating adequacy of tools
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Contact Information
Rich Juricich, P.E., M.S.Statewide Water Planning
DWR, Planning & Local Assistance
901 P St., 2nd Floor, Sacramento
(916) 651-9225
juricich @ water.ca.gov
www.WaterPlan.water.ca.gov