Dr. Jeffrey Mount, Senior Fellow Public Policy Institute of California California Water Issues: The Drought Edition
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Dr. Jeffrey Mount, Senior Fellow Public Policy Institute of California
California Water Issues: The Drought Edition
Floods, droughts and lawsuits: it’s the way we get things done
Biologist: Peter Moyle, UC Davis Economists: Ellen Hanak, PPIC* Ariel Dinar, UC Riverside Richard Howitt, UC Davis Engineer: Jay Lund, UC Davis* Geologist: Jeffrey Mount, PPIC/UC Davis Lawyers: Brian Gray, UC Hastings Buzz Thompson, Stanford
*Lead authors 2
Supported with funding from S.D. Bechtel, Jr. Foundation, The David and Lucile Packard Foundation, Pisces Foundation, Resources Legacy Fund,
Santa Ana Watershed Project Authority
Part 1: Understanding California Water
§ Surprisingly abundant
§ Extreme variation in space and time
§ Adaptation to climate extremes
§ Adapting to change
3
Abundant Water, Diverse Climate and Geography
4
Abundant Water, Diverse Climate and Geography
5 Courtesy Mike Dettinger, USGS
Adaptation: Surface Storage
6
Adaptation: Surface Storage
7
Adaptation: Groundwater Storage
8
Faunt et al., 2009
Adaptation: Groundwater Storage
9
More than 70 MAF Overdraft in San Joaquin Valley
Adaptation: Distribution Systems
10
Adaptation: Distribution Systems
11
Adaptation: Distribution Systems
12 The Weak Link: Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta
Adaptation: Ecosystems
13
Adaptation: Ecosystems
14
7 7 7
14 18 31
50 53
69
44 38
22
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1989 1995 2010
Reasonably Secure Special Concern Listed
Extinct
California’s native freshwater fishes in decline
Adaptation: Change
§ Changing Climate and Sea Level
§ Changing Demand
§ Changing Ecosystems
15
California Average Temperature January-September
Part II: From Drought to Myths
• Why Myths? • Simplify issues
• Create “common knowledge based on common sense”
• Powerful communication tool
• Usually some basis in fact
16
Myth 1: California is running out of water
17
But Human Uses are Declining
18
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1960 1967 1972 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Gro
ss w
ater
use
, mill
ion
acre
feet
Total
Agricultural
Urban
Economic efficiency of water use continues to rise while use goes down
19
4 times higher
2 times higher
half as high
Source: Data from DWR, DOF, and US Bureau of Economic Analysis (as cited in Hanak et al, Water and California’s Economy, 2012)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
1967
= 1
00
State GDP per unit of water used
State GDP per capita
Water use per capita
We are not running out of water, just cheap water
§ We are adapting to increasing scarcity
§ We are increasing reliability in large urban areas
§ But difficult adjustments ahead in agricultural sector as water prices rise
20
Myth 2: We Can Conserve Our Way Out of CA’s Water Problems
21
Reality: Conservation is important, but its effectiveness can be overstated
• New technology and changing water use habits will help, particularly in urban settings
• Farmers are becoming more economically efficient with water
• But conservation does not always yield “new” water, because “excess” water is often already reused
22
Large landscape
11%
Commercial 14%
Industrial 6%
Energy production
2%
Residential - interior
34%
Residential - exterior
33%
9.1 million acre feet
Urban Use
Myth 3: Environmental regulation is causing California's water scarcity
23 Delta Smelt
Salmon
Depends on how you define “environmental water”
Statewide Annual Gross Water Use by Sector Basis in Fact
§ Half of water use is allocated to the environment
§ Meeting habitat and water quality standards is a significant constraint
§ The amount allocated to the environment has been increasing over the last 20+ years
§ But….
24
Environment (Including
North Coast)
Agriculture
Urban
41 maf (50 %) 33 maf
(40%)
9 maf (10%)
Most environmental water doesn’t compete with other uses
25
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Central Valley Lahontan San Francisco Bay
Central Coast South Coast Colorado River
Gro
ss w
ater
use
, mill
ion
acre
feet
Environment
Agriculture
Urban
20 maf (33%)
32 maf (53%)
8.5 maf (14%)
Gross Water Use in the Interconnected Portions of California (excludes North Coast)
Myth 4: The California Craft Brewing Industry is Hosed (it’s time to move)
26
Lake Oroville
No You’re Not (i.e. don’t move)
§ Urban breweries tend to have the most resilient supplies (albeit growing in cost)
§ North Coast region traditionally wet (but occasionally unreliable)
§ Greatest risk is for rural breweries lacking diversified water portfolio
§ Wastewater an issue for everyone
27
Ritchie, 2012
Craft Brewer’s California Water Footprint (NOTE: Preliminary estimates only)
§ Not Very Much*: – 3M bbl = 93M gal – 6 gal/gal processing =
558M gal – Total 651M gal/year =
2003 acre-ft
§ Compare Water Use: – Per capita 150 gal/day =
1/6 acre-ft/year – Typical acre crop uses 3(+/-)
acre-ft/year
§ Equivalent Usage: – 12,000 people – 640 acre almond orchard – 4.4 hours of LA water use
28
*data sources: Ritchie, 2012, T. McCormick pers comm.
But…Craft Brewers Total Water Footprint (NOTE: Preliminary estimates only)
§ It’s a Pretty Big Number – 55 lbs of barley and 1.3 lbs
hops/barrel = 169M lbs* – Annual yield/acre = 1 ton** – Water use = 2 acre-ft** 169,000 acre-ft = 590 gal/gal beer
§ California craft brewers use enough water to supply a million people
29 * T. McCormick pers. comm., ** UC Extension values
From myth to nuanced reality
1. California is not running out water, just cheap water.
2. We cannot conserve our way out of this problem, but it helps.
3. The environment is not taking all the water, but it is taking an increasing share.
4. You are not hosed. California is a great place for sustainable craft brewing and unlike most other industries, you import 99% of your water from out of state.
30
Conclusion
31
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