California Labor Federation California Labor Federation Post-Election 2012 Analysis
California Labor Federation California Labor Federation Post-Election 2012 Analysis
Jan 01, 2016
California Labor Federation California Labor Federation Post-Election 2012 Analysis. “I salute the unions—their members and their leaders. You showed what ordinary people can do when they are united and organized .” -JERRY BROWN State of the State, 1/24/13. 2012 Election Summary. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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California Labor FederationCalifornia Labor Federation
Post-Election 2012 Analysis
2
“I salute the unions—their members and their leaders. You showed what ordinary people
can do when they are united and organized.”
-JERRY BROWN State of the State, 1/24/13
3
2012 Election Summary
Major Wins: Prop 30 and Prop 32Other Significant Wins: Prop 31, Prop 392/3 Majorities in LegislaturePick up 4 seats in CongressLocal wins
California Labor FederationCalifornia Labor FederationUnion Member Survey
5
Union vote goal
Prop 75 (2005): 71%
Goal for 2012: 76%
6
76% members No on Prop 32
Proposition 32 24 76
Yes No
* Voters recalculated to remove voters that did not remember vote choice.
7
70% member Yes on Prop 30
Proposition 30 70 30
Yes No
* Voters recalculated to remove voters that did not remember vote choice.
8
Prop 32: Members by Sector
Building Trades
Private
Public
All members
27
26
22
24
73
74
78
76
Yes on Prop 32 No on Prop 32
* Voters recalculated to remove voters that did not remember vote choice.
9
Prop 32: Members by Party
Republicans
No Party Preference
Democrats
All members
46
20
14
24
54
80
86
76
Yes on Prop 32 No on Prop 32
* Voters recalculated to remove voters that did not remember vote choice.
10
Prop 32: Members by Ethnicity
Asian
White
Latino
African American
All members
25
25
22
18
24
75
75
78
82
76
Yes on Prop 32 No on Prop 32
* Voters recalculated to remove voters that did not remember vote choice.
11
Union messaging worked best
First step of one-two punch
Has special exemptions
Gives secret SuperPACs even more
power
Don't know Other
36
22 2213 5
12
Starting Early
Worksite in Spring
Summer: 16 Campaign Schools in 6 weeks – 1,500 activists trained
13
Starting Early Paid Off Tied in Aug. 2005 vs. 30 point lead in Aug. 2012
Summer 2005 Summer 20120
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
44
29
45
60
YesNo
14
What member contact works best
In person/at door
Union reps at worksite
Union worksite mtg
By phone by union
Flyers at worksite
83 82 81
77 76 75
No on Prop 32%
15
In person contact least prevalent
71
4739
282523
% Contacted by each method re: Prop 32
16
Member Program Conclusions
In person/worksite contact most important
Important to start early
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