CairnsWatch · 2017-03-31 · CairnsWatch March 2017 3 Source: Derived from ABS Labour Force Survey data Feb-07 Aug-07 Feb-08 Aug-08 Feb-09 Aug-09 Feb-10 Aug-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Feb-12

CairnsWatch March 2017

Cairns Level 1, 95 Sheridan Street Cairns Qld 4870 PO Box 6843 Cairns Qld 4870

Telephone: 4057 0200 Email:[email protected] www.htw.com.au www.cairnswatch.com.au

CairnsWatch March 2017 2

OVERVIEW

The Cairns economy continues to muddle along, with no real directional changes evident over the last month. Tourism and employment indicators remain positive, but job advertising, property and construction indicators are still lagging. Our ‘special topic’ this month highlights a slowly increasing population growth rate, which we predict to continue increasing over the next two years. If this CairnsWatch bulletin has been forwarded to you from someone else and you would prefer to receive it direct each month, add your name and email address here – it’s simple and it’s free!

AT A GLANCE

Airport Passenger Trend: ▲ 0.6% (February 2016 to February 2017) Employment Trend: ▲ 8,100 (February 2016 to February 2017) Building Approvals Trend: ▼ 57.8% (January 2016 to January 2017) Population Growth Rate: ▲ to 1.1% (30 June 2015 to 30 June 2016)



Rick Carr Research Director Herron Todd White Cairns Phone:Phone:Phone:Phone: 07 4057 0200 Fax:Fax:Fax:Fax: 07 4051 3946

Email:Email:Email:Email: [email protected]

The Fine Print: Information in this publication is based on an analysis of data from a number of sources, subjected to technical procedures of seasonal adjustment and trend analysis. Seasonal adjustment is a means of removing the effects of normal seasonal variation from the data, so that comparisons can be made of data against their established seasonal patterns. Trend analysis smooths the seasonally adjusted estimates to provide a clearer picture of the underlying behaviour of the series over time. The trend estimates are derived by applying a 13-term Henderson-weighted moving average to the seasonally adjusted data. It applies the same procedures used by the Australian Bureau of Statistics in producing trends for national aggregates. No responsibility is accepted to any third party that may use or rely on the whole or any part of the content of this publication. Neither the whole nor any part of this publication or any reference thereto may be included in any published or photocopied documents, circular or statement, nor transmitted or published in part or full in any way, including electronically, without written approval of the form and context in which it may appear. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation. The scheme does not apply within Tasmania

© HTW Copyright 2017


Source: Derived from ABS Labour Force Survey data

Feb-07Aug-07

Feb-08Aug-08

Feb-09Aug-09

Feb-10Aug-10

Feb-11Aug-11

Feb-12Aug-12

Feb-13Aug-13

Feb-14Aug-14

Feb-15Aug-15

Feb-16Aug-16

Feb-17100,000

110,000

120,000

130,000

Number of Persons Employed (Log Scale)

Actual Trend

Source: Derived from ABS Labour Force Survey data

Feb-07Aug-07

Feb-08Aug-08

Feb-09Aug-09

Feb-10Aug-10

Feb-11Aug-11

Feb-12Aug-12

Feb-13Aug-13

Feb-14Aug-14

Feb-15Aug-15

Feb-16Aug-16

Feb-172%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Unemployment Rate (Actual and Trend Basis)

Cairns Region All Queensland

EMPLOYMENT AND DEMOGRAPHY

Persons Employed in the Cairns Region

ABS headline figures for the Cairns Region (inclusive of Cairns, the Cassowary Coast, Douglas and the Tablelands) give an estimate of 113,000 persons employed during February 2017, compared to a headline estimate of 115,900 persons employed during January 2017. Despite the headline reduction, employment continues to grow when analysed in more reliable trend terms. Employment grew to reach a seasonally adjusted trend level of 117,500 persons employed in February 2017, up 8,100 since February 2016. N.B. The ABS Labour Force figures are estimates derived from a sample survey of only about 500 Cairns Region residents, and hence are subject to a potentially large margin of error. Neither the headline nor the trend estimates should be interpreted as precise values.

Cairns Region Unemployment Rate

The Cairns Region’s notoriously volatile headline unemployment rate came in at 9.6% in February 2017, compared to 6.0% in January 2017 and a high of 11.0% in May 2016. When analysed in trend terms, the region’s unemployment rate has started increasing again, as previously discouraged jobseekers come back to look for work. We estimate a seasonally adjusted unemployment rate trend of 6.1% in February 2017, which is significantly below its February 2016 trend level of 8.0% and is back below the State average of 6.4%. N.B. To be counted as ‘unemployed’ in the ABS Labour Force survey you need to not have a job and be actively seeking work. People who do not have a job and are not actively seeking work are not counted as unemployed, they are regarded as ‘not in the labour force’.




Source: HTW Analysis of Employment Websites

Aug-13Oct-13

Dec-13Feb-14

Apr-14Jun-14

Aug-14Oct-14

Dec-14Feb-15

Apr-15Jun-15

Aug-15Oct-15

Dec-15Feb-16

Apr-16Jun-16

Aug-16Oct-16

Dec-16Feb-17

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

Monthly Average Jobs Advertised

Actual Trend


Cairns Job Ads

The trend in the number of jobs being advertised on employment websites for the Cairns and Far North region has tapered from the highs achieved in mid 2016, and now appears to have steadied. The trend in the number of jobs advertised in February 2017 was 3.4% lower than it was in February 2016.



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Source: ABS, HTW Research

19831984

19851986

19871988

19891990

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006

20072008

20092010

20112012

20132014

20152016

20172018

Year to June

Rate of Growth %pa

Actual HTW Forecast Long Term Average

2.7%

4.0%

3.3%

4.0%

3.4%

2.6%

4.3%

6.5%

2.4%

0.0%

3.4%

4.6%4.4%

4.8%

3.8%

1.5%

1.3%

0.8%0.6%

0.3%

1.7%

2.7%2.7%

3.2%

3.7%

3.4%

3.9%

3.4%

2.1%

1.5%

2.1%1.9%

1.3%

1.0%1.1%

1.2%1.4%


Special Topic: Population Growth

Cairns (defined as the urban area from the Goldsborough Valley through to Ellis Beach) experienced lower than expected population growth of 1.1% over the 12 months to 30 June 2016, with its official resident population reaching 158,499 as at that date. Cairns 2015-16 population increase was slightly above the 1.0% population growth recorded in Townsville but below the 1.4% growth rate observed in Queensland as a whole. We expect the Cairns population growth rate to pick up over the next two years as a result of its reinvigorating economy. Our population model predicts that Cairns’ population will grow by about 1.2% in the 12 months to 30 June 2017, followed by about 1.4% growth in the 12 months to 30 June 2018.



Herron Todd WhiteHerron Todd WhiteHerron Todd WhiteHerron Todd White does…does…does…does… SocioSocioSocioSocio----Economic ResearchEconomic ResearchEconomic ResearchEconomic Research

Herron Todd White Cairns carries out specialist project consulting assignments in all areas of socio-economic research, including demographic studies, statistical surveys, market research, strategy planning, cost benefit studies, and socio-economic impact assessment

Contact us today to discuss your requirements.


Source: Derived from Cairns Airport data

Feb-07Aug-07

Feb-08Aug-08

Feb-09Aug-09

Feb-10Aug-10

Feb-11Aug-11

Feb-12Aug-12

Feb-13Aug-13

Feb-14Aug-14

Feb-15Aug-15

Feb-16Aug-16

Feb-1730,000

50,000

85,000

140,000

240,000

420,000

Monthly Passenger Arrivals + Departures (excl Transits)

Domestic Terminal

International Terminal

TOURISM

Airport Passenger Numbers

Passenger statistics at Cairns Airport during February 2017 were affected by the earlier Lunar New Year timing this year compared to last, as well as a shorter February this year compared to last (28 days instead of 29). Allowing for these factors, our trend calculations show that passenger numbers at the domestic terminal continue to increase, but their rate of annual growth in February 2017 slowed to 0.4%. Meanwhile passenger numbers at the international terminal reached an 8-year trend high during February 2017, but their rate of annual growth also slowed, to 1.7%. Passenger numbers overall grew in trend terms by 0.6% from February 2016 to February 2017. It appears that this year’s Lunar New Year growth impact was nowhere near as strong as it was in 2016.

Cairns Level 1, 95 Sheridan Street, Cairns Cairns Qld 4870 PO Box 6843 Cairns Qld 4870


HerHerHerHerron Todd Whiteron Todd Whiteron Todd Whiteron Todd White does…does…does…does…TourismTourismTourismTourism ValuationsValuationsValuationsValuations Buying or selling a tourist property? Herron Todd White has valuers specialising in all forms of tourism related property – including pubs, roadhouses, hostels and caravan parks, and the entire accommodation spectrum from small motels and serviced apartments through to large scale resorts.


* All sales are classified to date of contract (not date of settlement)** Recent months are provisional and subject to revisionSource: HTW Analysis of RPData

Feb-07Aug-07

Feb-08Aug-08

Feb-09Aug-09

Feb-10Aug-10

Feb-11Aug-11

Feb-12Aug-12

Feb-13Aug-13

Feb-14Aug-14

Feb-15Aug-15

Feb-16Aug-16

Feb-17$120,000

$165,000

$230,000

$320,000

$450,000

Median Sale Price (Log Scale)

Houses

Vacant Land

Units

* All sales are classsified to the date of contract** Recent quarters are provisional and subject to revisionSource: HTW Analysis of RPData

Dec-06Jun-07

Dec-07Jun-08

Dec-08Jun-09

Dec-09Jun-10

Dec-10Jun-11

Dec-11Jun-12

Dec-12Jun-13

Dec-13Jun-14

Dec-14Jun-15

Dec-15Jun-16

Dec-16

0

600

1,200

1,800

2,400

Quarter Ended

Number of Sales per Quarter

HouseSales

UnitSales

LandSales

Total(Trend)

PROPERTY

Property Prices

The Cairns median house price trend has eased slightly over the past six months, with its February 2017 reading of $401,200 down 0.7% on August 2016. The median unit price trend has also reduced, with its February 2017 reading of $218,000 down 3.7% on August 2016. Meanwhile the median land price trend ended up at $201,700 in February 2017, down 6.3% compared August 2016 largely due to reduced numbers of upper market land sales. N.B. The median property price is the actual sale price of the middle-priced property from the list of properties sold each month. Movements in median prices do not necessarily equate to movements in individual property values.

Property Sales

The real estate market has seen minimal change in overall property sale volumes over the latest twelve months, with the number of sales for the December quarter of 2016 up only mildly on the corresponding quarter of 2015, by 0.4% in trend terms. There was a 3.2% drop in the trend number of house sales over the period, offset by a 4.9% trend increase in unit sales and a 4.8% trend increase in land sales.




Source: HTW Rentroll Survey

Feb-07Aug-07

Feb-08Aug-08

Feb-09Aug-09

Feb-10Aug-10

Feb-11Aug-11

Feb-12Aug-12

Feb-13Aug-13

Feb-14Aug-14

Feb-15Aug-15

Feb-16Aug-16

Feb-170%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Percentage Vacancy

Houses Units Total

'Balanced Market' Range

PROPERTY

Rental Vacancies

Rental vacancy trend rates have been reducing of late for units, but have been relatively steady for houses. Overall vacancies remain indicative of a tight rental supply. The latest trend rental vacancy rates for February 2017 stood at 1.8% for houses and 2.1% for units. The market vacancy trend overall stood at 1.9%.



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Source: Derived from ABS data

Jan-13Apr-13

Jul-13Oct-13

Jan-14Apr-14

Jul-14Oct-14

Jan-15Apr-15

Jul-15Oct-15

Jan-16Apr-16

Jul-16Oct-16

Jan-17

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Number of New Dwellings Approved in Cairns Urban Area

Houses UnitsTotal

(Actual Trend)

PROPERTY

Building Approvals

Building approval figures reported for the Cairns urban area have fallen away significantly over the past four months and are down to a 17-year low. In trend terms the January 2017 figures are 57.8% below those recorded in January 2016.



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banana plantations.


Source: Residential Property Ratings Compiled by Herron Todd White, February 2017Entries coloured dark blue indicate positional changes from last month

Darwin Gladstone Mackay South West WA Townsville

Coffs HarbourNewcastleNSW Central Coast NSW Far Nth Coast

Starting to Decline

Declining Market

Approaching Bottom of Market

Approaching Peak of Market

RisingMarket

Start of Recovery

Peak of Market

Bottom ofMarket

Adelaide Adelaide Hills Ballarat Barossa Valley Bathurst Burnie-Devonport Cairns CanberraEchuca HobartLaunceston Orange SA Iron Triangle SA Riverland Sydney Tamworth

Brisbane Bundaberg Emerald Hervey BayHorsham MilduraMount Gambier WarnnamboolWhitsunday

Gold Coast Ipswich Melbourne NSW Mid Nth Coast South East NSW Sunshine Coast

BendigoToowoomba

Alice Springs Gippsland Perth Rockhampton

Canberra

PROPERTY

National Property Clock

Herron Todd White’s National Property Clock is prepared each month based on the local market perceptions of its Australia-wide network of offices. The Cairns market remains patchy, with some sectors showing rises but others seemingly in decline. Overall the market remains positioned at the ‘Rising Market’ phase of the cycle, but only just.



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[email protected] or call (07) 4724 2000.

CairnsWatch · 2017-03-31 · CairnsWatch March 2017 3 Source: Derived from ABS Labour Force Survey data Feb-07 Aug-07 Feb-08 Aug-08 Feb-09 Aug-09 Feb-10 Aug-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Feb-12

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