Caio A. S. Coelho Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC) Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) [email protected]CPTEC-IRI Workshop , Cachoeira Paulista (Brazil), 8 November 2006 PLAN OF TALK • History • Aims • Planned activities • Motivating results • Summary EUROBRISA: A EURO-BRazilian Initiative for improving South American seasonal forecasts
18
Embed
Caio A. S. Coelho Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC) Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) [email protected] CPTEC-IRI.
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
Caio A. S. CoelhoCentro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC)
EUROBRISA summary• Challenging initiative for improving the quality of
South American seasonal forecasts
• Facilitate exchange and transfer of technology, knowledge and expertise between participating institutions
• Valuable opportunity to:- develop an objectively integrated (i.e. dynamical + empirical) forecasting system for
South America- work closely with end-users to evaluate our forecasting system in terms of user variables rather than solely on traditional climate variables
• Collaborative activities with IRI are of great interest
References: • Coelho C.A.S., S. Pezzulli, M. Balmaseda, F. J. Doblas-Reyes and D. B. Stephenson, 2003: “Skill of Coupled Model Seasonal Forecasts: A Bayesian Assessment of ECMWF ENSO Forecasts”. ECMWF Technical Memorandum No. 426, 16pp.• Coelho C.A.S., S. Pezzulli, M. Balmaseda, F. J. Doblas-Reyes and D. B. Stephenson, 2004: “Forecast Calibration and Combination: A Simple Bayesian Approach for ENSO”. J. Climate, 17, 1504-1516. • Coelho C.A.S. 2005: “Forecast Calibration and Combination: Bayesian Assimilation of Seasonal ClimatePredictions”. PhD Thesis. University of Reading. 178 pp. • Coelho C.A.S., D. B. Stephenson, M. Balmaseda, F. J. Doblas-Reyes and G. J. van Oldenborgh, 2006a: Towards an integrated seasonal forecasting system for South America. J. Climate , 19, 3704-3721. • Coelho C.A.S., D. B. Stephenson, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, M. Balmaseda, A. Guetter and G. J. vanOldenborgh, 2006b: A Bayesian approach for multi-model downscaling: Seasonal forecasting of regionalrainfall and river flows in South America. Meteorological Applications, 13, 73-82. • Stephenson, D. B., Coelho, C. A. S., Doblas-Reyes, F.J. and Balmaseda, M., 2005: “Forecast Assimilation: A Unified Framework for the Combination of Multi-Model Weather and Climate Predictions.” Tellus A, Vol. 57, 253-264.
Available from http://www.cptec.inpe.br/~caio
•Challinor et al.,2004: “Design and optimisation of a large-area process-based model for annual crops”.Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 124, 99-112.