Cabot Investors Conference 2013 www.cabot.net My Favorite Investment Today Chloe Lutts Jensen, Moderator All Cabot Analysts
Cabot Investors Conference 2013 www.cabot.net
My Favorite Investment Today
Chloe Lutts Jensen, Moderator
All Cabot Analysts
Cabot Investors Conference 2013 www.cabot.net
Global X Top Guru Holdings
• “Famous managers’ most concentrated stock picks … tend to do better than (their) funds on the whole.”
—Brendan Conway (Barron’s)
• Top hedge fund positions from 13-F filings
• Assets: $3.94 million
• Equal-weighted stock holdings
• Management fee: 0.75%
• July YTD 25.9% (vs 14.4% NYSE Comp)
• Positive alpha
Robin Carpenter
Cabot Investors Conference 2013 www.cabot.net
GURU Moving Alpha
Cabot Investors Conference 2013 www.cabot.net
Trinity Industries (TRN)
• Max Buy Price 39.54; Min Sell Price 55.49
• Current P/E is 11.3. Dividend Yield is 1.3%
• Sales will rise 9% and EPS will climb 20% during the next 12 months
• Trinity has a huge backlog of orders for railcars
Roy Ward
Cabot Investors Conference 2013 www.cabot.net
Facebook (FB)All the Characteristics of a Big Winner
• Mass market
• No competition
• New opportunity (mobile)
• Accelerating sales
• EPS estimates, margins ramp
Michael Cintolo
Cabot Investors Conference 2013 www.cabot.net
Huge Blast Off = Accumulation
Cabot Investors Conference 2013 www.cabot.net
Volatility as an Asset Class
Options are Insurance
• Geico/Allstate = Options Sellers
• Selling Volatility on a broad equity index has a positive expected return premium over time, as the seller effectively provides insurance to the buyer of volatility.
Jacob Mintz
Cabot Investors Conference 2013 www.cabot.net
• Over 20 years, the market has overpriced volatility by an average of 4.6 vol points
• Implied volatility has exceeded realized volatility 88% of the time since 1990
Cabot Investors Conference 2013 www.cabot.net
The Merrill Lynch vol/arb index enters into trades that monetize the difference between implied and realized volatility.
Cabot Investors Conference 2013 www.cabot.net
Current Volatility Conditions
• Vix at 13
• Realized 30 Day Volatility of SPX is 8
• A premium of 5 points
Cabot Investors Conference 2013 www.cabot.net
Cabot Investors Conference 2013 www.cabot.net
Baidu.com (BIDU)
Paul Goodwin
Cabot Investors Conference 2013 www.cabot.net
Tesla (TSLA)
Timothy Lutts
Cabot Investors Conference 2013 www.cabot.net
TripAdvisor (TRIP)
Cabot Investors Conference 2013 www.cabot.net
Issue• Lots of great discoveries in medicine cannot reach their targets
Tom Garrity
Cabot Investors Conference 2013 www.cabot.net
Big Idea: Delivery of Medicine
• Because of medicine’s inability to rapidly cross extra-cellular matrix (ECM) into the lymphatic vasculature and capillary beds, they can't exert their therapeutic effects
Cabot Investors Conference 2013 www.cabot.net
Halozyme (HALO)
Patented enzymes allow drugs currently administered intravenously (IV) to be administered subcutaneously (SC) – Increased and faster absorption– Less frequently administered– Improved efficacy of existing therapies –Modify abnormal tissue
Cabot Investors Conference 2013 www.cabot.net
PartnershipsMilestones Payments plus Royalties
• Hoffmann-La Roche ($13.8 billion in 2012)
• Pfizer (Up to $570 million)
• Baxter Healthcare ($1.59 billion in 2012)
• ViroPharma Incorporated (Milestone Payments Plus 10% Royalties)
• Intrexon Corporation ($54 million Plus Royalties)
Cabot Investors Conference 2013 www.cabot.net
Halozyme Proprietary • Endocrinolo
gy
• Oncology
• Dermatology
Cabot Investors Conference 2013 www.cabot.net