Cabinets Majoritarian democracy: Single party majority executive Consensual democracy: Parties share the executive office Two factors important: Number.

Cabinets

Majoritarian democracy: Single party majority executive Consensual democracy: Parties share the executive office Two factors important: Number of parties Executives support in parliament

Classification of Cabinets

Cabinet support Minimal winning Oversized Minority

Most majoritarian: Single party & minimal winning Most consensual: Multiparty and oversized

Coalition Theories

Parliamentary government Definition: The cabinet/executive

relies on the parliament’s confidence. Hence, a majority of legislators must

not wish to remove the cabinet

Elections result in a distribution of parliamentary seats among parties Which parties form a cabinet?

Coalition Theories

If a majority party exists it is likely to form a cabinet by itself Exception: Wartime coalitions

What if no party has a majority? Can we predict which parties form a coalition? What factors are likely to matter? Distribution of seats Policy preferences

Coalition Theories

Minimal winning coalitions Coalition parties have a majority of

seats Removing any party from coalition

reduces it to a minority

Minimum size coalitions Minimal winning Smallest in terms of legislative seats

Coalition Theories

Minimum number of parties Minimal winning Fewest number of parties

Minimal range coalition Minimal winning Parties with similar policy preferences

form a coalition

Coalition Theories

Minimal connected winning coalitions Not minimal winning Connected – does not exclude parties

with moderate policy preference relative to other cabinet parties

Policy viable coalitions Minimal winning Always includes the party of the median

legislator (or median party)

Predictions

A B C D E

8 21 26 12 33

Minimal winning: ABC, ADE, BCD, BE, CE

Minimum size: ADE

Minimum #parties: BE, CE

Minimal range: ABC, BCD, CE

Minimal connected: ABC, BCD, CDE

Policy viable: ABC, BCD, CE

Minority & Oversized Cabinets

All the theories predict the formation of a (minimal) majority cabinet Cabinets are, however, often minority or oversized cabinets Minority cabinets almost the rule in Sweden,

Denmark Nearly 1/3 of all cabinets are minority

cabinets About 1/5 are oversized

Minority & Oversized Cabinets

How do we explain this ‘anomaly’? Cabinet participation can be costly Accountability may harm parties electorally May decrease likelihood of future cabinet

participation (loss of identity)

Oversized cabinets Narrow majorities dangerous Insurance against defections Minimizes individual legislator’s bargaining

power

Minority & Oversized Cabinets

Parties care about policy Thus, B may be better of in coalition ABC

than coalition BC

External threats Need to minimize domestic conflict

Institutions Investiture vote (note Sweden) Constructive vote of no confidence Votes of confidence in France Committees

Minority & Oversized Cabinets

Oversized cabinets Requirements regarding cabinet

membership (Belgium – linguistic) Need to change constitution or

legislation requiring super-majorities

Minority Cabinets

Where do minority cabinets fit into the majoritarian-consensual classification Minority cabinets tend to be single-party but do not have majority support Two types can be distinguished Continuous bargaining over policy ‘Majority cabinets in disguise’=> The former is more common – similar to

oversized cabinets?

Presidential Cabinets

Differences between parliamentary and presidential cabinets: Presidential cabinets do not rely on

the confidence of the legislature Parliamentary cabinets are collegial,

presidential cabinets are not

Unusual Cabinets

Austria Grand coalition cabinets 1949-1966 Minimal winning but composed of the

two largest parties (holding 92% of seats)

Oversized?

The U.S. Partisan cabinets Token opposition members

Unusual Cabinets

Japan LDP has a majority from 1976 to 1993 Behaves like a minority cabinet –

attempts to build oversized coalitions to pass legislation

Cabinets in 36 Democracies

Measuring majoritarianism: Average of percentage of minimal

winning and one-party cabinets Problematic?

Relationship with party system Strong negative relationship Surprising?

Prime Ministerial Power

Presidents have great control over their cabinets In parliamentary system the power of the Prime Minister can vary greatly Relationship between the PM’s power and concentration of power in the cabinet Finds strong relationship

Summary

Classifying cabinets Theories of coalition formation Advances

Relationship between type and number of parties Interesting? Small number of parties => Majorities

more frequent

Executive-Legislative Relations

Majoritarian: Executive Dominance Consensual: Legislative Dominance Parliamentary vs. Presidential Gov’t Reliance on legislature’s confidence vs. fixed

term Selection by legislature vs. popular election Collegial executive vs. one-person executive

Parliamentary vs. Presidential Government

Many combination are possible Empirically there are only ‘pure’ presidential or parliamentary systems Switzerland is the only exceptions.

Semi-presidentialism Vary in strength of presidents France, Austria, Iceland, Portugal, Finland Lijphart – depends on president’s support Dissolution power

Israel (Is Lijphart right?)

Before 1996 – Parliamentary Now: Prime Minister is directly elected Parliament elected at same time Parliament can dismiss Prime Minister Prime Minister can dissolve Parliament Either requires a new election? Similarity to a presidential system

Parliamentary vs. Presidential Government

Separation of Powers: In presidential systems it implies that

the same person can not serve in both legislative and executive branch

In parliamentary systems, generally, cabinet members are legislators

Netherlands, Norway and Luxembourg the exception

Parliamentary vs. Presidential Government

Presidents don’t have the right to dissolve the legislature Exceptions: France, Israel In parliamentary system dissolution

rights may or may not exist Norway: Fixed term Restricted dissolution rights Unlimited: UK

Parliamentary vs. Presidential Government

Head of state/government Presidential systems: President is

both head of state and government Parliamentary systems:

Monarch/President head of state, PM head of Government

Botswana: PM is both South Africa under Nelson Mandela

South Africa

T.he President is elected for five year term by the parliament

The Cabinet consists of the President, as head of the Cabinet, a Deputy President and Ministers. The President appoints the Deputy President and Ministers, assigns their powers and functions, and may dismiss them.

The President:

must select the Deputy President and Ministers from among the members of the National Assembly;

may select no more than two Ministers from outside the Assembly.

The Deputy President must assist the President in the execution of the functions of government.

Separation & Balance of Power

Not a simple relationship between presidentialism/parliamentarism and balance of power Presidents, as well as PMs, can be

either strong or weak (Belgium vs. UK, US vs France)

Presidential Power

Reactive & Proactive Powers Veto Power Decree Power

Strength & Cohesion of Presidential Parties Popular election Claim to legitimacy

Presidential Power

Dependence on Partisan Power May lead to instability of power

Constitutional Powers Generally stable Vetoes and Decrees still work ‘fairly’

well

Popularity ????….

How do we measure balance of power?

Cabinet durability as an indicator for parliamentary government Q: May inhibit cabinet’s ability to pass

a coherent policy program, but does it shift power to the legislature?

The fourth French Republic? Italy? Cabinet stability vs. Regime stability

How to measure cabinet durability?

How do we measure balance of power?

When does a cabinet end? When does a new one begin? Important factors: Partisan composition Elections Change in PM Change in type of cabinet (winning,

minority, oversized?)

Lijphart: Combines measures.

How do we measure balance of power?

Lijphart: Nothing more stable than the U.K. ??? Lijphart: U.S.? Switzerland? Term limits?

Cabinet Type and Cabinet Durability

Durability: Minimal winning party > Minimal winning coalition > Minority party > Oversized > Minority coalition Caretaker cabinets Short duration of oversized cabinets. Why?

Executive Dominance and Majoritarian Governments

Figure 7.2 Shows a fairly strong relationship However, executive dominance is really durability and ‘majoritarian cabinet’ is really percentage of minimal winning, one party governments

=> Seems like somewhat an uninteresting finding

Summary

Attempt to measure balance of power What is power? Ability to pass legislation/influence policy – even if legislator opposes What is the outcome?

Better measures? Veto power, Decree power, Agenda setting, etc…

President Legislature