C O R P O R A T E T E C H N O L O G Y © Siemens AG, All Rights Reserved. Transportation Power Information & Communications Health Lighting Services Automation.

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© Siemens AG, All Rights Reserved.

Transportation

Power

Information & Communications

Health

Lighting

Services

Automation & Control

Dietmar Theis

Siemens AGCorporate TechnologyMünchen

[email protected]

Pictures of the Futureand Horizons2020 :

Developing scenarios for future technologies and food for thoughtabout future lifeworlds

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Outline

Pictures of the Future IPictures of the Future I I & C, Transportation, Health

Pictures of the Future IIPictures of the Future IICross-sectional areas : Materials, Services

SummarySummaryWe need both, Pictures of the Future and Horizons2020

IntroductionIntroduction Siemens: Future is a fascinating challenge

Horizons2020 Horizons2020 Two scenarios for Europe

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Information andCommunications

Medical

Transportation

Automation and Control

Power

Lighting

4.2

13.7

12.0

7.6

18.6

16.8

External sales in billions of euros in fiscal year 2004/05 excluding Other Operations, Siemens Financial Services (SFS) and Siemens Real Estate (SRE)

Broad scope of business(6 business areas, 11 groups + SFS, SRE)

Global presence(in more than 190 countries)

13%

22%

27%

36%

462,0002%

€75.4 bn

12%

21%

33%

25%

13%

8%Asia-Pacific

The Americas

Europe(without Germany)

Germany

other countries

Sales

Siemens – Global Network of Innovation (1)

Employees

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… more than 50% for software(about 30,000 software engineers worldwide)

R&D expenditure in 2005: €5.2 billion (6.8% of sales) …

Source: Siemens AG, CD S MI – 11/05

R&D expenditures in billions of euros

Groups

Corporate Technology

Siemens – Global Network of Innovation (2)

1 USD = 0.78612 EUR1 Yen = 0.00734 EUR1 SEK = 0.10894 EUR1 KRW = 0.00076 EUR

Automationand Control

TransportationPower

Information and Communications

Lighting

others

Medical 19%

9% 21%

14%

30% 4%3%

95%

5%

Matsushita

BoschHitachi

Siemens

Nokia

IBM

SonySamsung

HPToshibaPhilips

GE

4.2

3.73.7

2.9

5.2

2.9

3.8

4.6

2.72.72.5

2.02.1

NECFujitsu

0.41.7

Dell

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“Prediction is hard, especially if it´s about the future”

Niels Bohr(1885 - 1962)Nobel laureate in physics

1922

“I am interested in the future, because that´s where I am going to spend the rest of my life”

George Burns(1896 - 1996)US actor

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Future designs

• VISION (desired future; „mission“ a means to approach the vision)

• TREND (forseeable developments, extrapolated from present situation; expert knowledge)

• FORECAST / PROGNOSIS (quantifies time and degree of use of trends; expert knowledge)

• SCENARIOS (comprehensive approach, covers multiple trends and their mutual interaction, allows for the emergence of several possible futures

• STRATEGIC SCENARIOS (operational preparation for the future, quantified options)

• COMMUNICATION SCENARIOS (intended for public discussion, qualitative aspects of alternative future designs)

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• Description of a comprehensive scenario

• Identification of business opportunities and new functionalities

• Consideration of regional aspects

• Development of mid/long term roadmaps

year 0 + 4..7 y. + 10..15 y.

CurrentBusiness

Extrapolation

Market data Multi Generation

Product Planning Application &

technology roadmaps

Scenario development

Regional socio- economic scenarios

Concepts: products or services

New functionalities & technologies

Retropolation &Consolidation

Filtering & matching Development of

seamless roadmaps 2012-2020

Input for strategic support

Fit of both approaches

Influentialfactors

Resources

Politics

Economy

Technology

Environment

Society

Individuals

Pictures of the Future (PoF): Aims and Methodology

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Pictures of the Future (PoF) : Team and project structure for one segment

• Core team : 3…5 professionals of different background (engineering, science, economics, psychology, sociology…)

• Project team : supports core team for a limited time (project duration for redesign of a Picture of the Future in one business segment three to four months). Project team can cover up to 10..12 persons, including experts from operating divisions, from academia, from public administration and research institutes

• Project leader is member of core team and usually a senior expert in the field analysed

• PoF project teams derive their comprehensive scenarios from expert interviews, own studies and simulations as well as from numerous published external sources

Methodology for Horizons2020 (TNS Infratest)

Communication scenario with two distinct future designs

Life areas selected:The political arena (incl. media)Society (values, education,health, mobility..)The economy (labor market, corporate

sector..)The environment (awareness, food..)Technology (general development)

Definition of descriptors (metrics describing developments using pairs of terms)

116 Europ. experts selected critical (=follows different courses in development) descriptors and expressed their degree of optimism regarding the future

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"Pictures of the Future" and "Horizons 2020" complement each other in providing holistic scenarios about the long-term future

5 . . .10 years Time Horizon 10 . . . 20 years

Customers SocietyMarkets Focus Individual

Technologies Values

Technology Planning Communication Business Opportunities Benefit Discussion

Communication Impulses

Corporate Technology Driver Corporate Communications

TransportationPower

HealthServices

Information &Communications

Automation &Control

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Outline






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: Detailed Description of AllRelevant Trends of Our Business Segments

Socio-economic trends

society life of work

Market trendssize / growthstructuregeographical

Customer / business trendsvalue chains / networkscompany structureprocesses

Technological trendsstrategic importancemultiple impactdisruptive

Transportation

Health

Power

Automation & Control

Information & Communications

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Picture of the FutureInformation and Communication

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Ad-hoc set-up and self-organization of services, devices and infrastructure

Embedded, programmable communication devices, appropriate displays and intelligent tags

Context awareness with respect to e.g. time, location, social environments, personal preferences, activities

Pervasive Computing Combines Situation Awareness with Ubiquitous Computing Power and Network Access

Smart labels and tags

2,50 V 80µA

Fibers for• Power• Electronic• Communication• MEMS

Body area networks and devices

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New Technologies are Emerging in the Areas of Nanotechnology, Biotechnology and New Materials

Further integration and miniaturization of computing devices through MEMS

Molecular electronics to improve storage and to develop bio-transistors, brain-machine interfaces, or new haptic interfaces and displays

Optical and quantum computing principles will lead to nearly unlimited bandwidths and massively parallel computing Single walled

nanotube

IBM millipede memory

Protein based memory

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© Siemens AG, All Rights Reserved.© Siemens AG, CT SM

Picture of the Future

Transportation

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Smart Traffic Management Increases Infrastructure Efficiency

© Siemens AG, CT SM

Specific Transportation Trends: Cost Reduction in Rail Operation Efficiency in Road Utilization

Gate-free, Electronic Fare Management systems

Automatic Passenger Counting solutions Automated, demand-oriented systems

for train operation

Advanced highway maintenance planning systems

Infrastructural systems to support collision avoidance

Smart, cost-efficient systems for traffic detection

Advanced planning and control systems for Traffic Management

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Patient-Centric Healthcare Patient-Centric Healthcare

Integrated Services Integrated Services

Theranostics Theranostics

Bio-, Nano-, Info- Technologies



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Personalized Healthcare Shift towards proactive, predictive medicine in the ambulatory/home setting

Patient-Centric Healthcare

Medicine will become more personalized

with greater patient-empowerment

Mobile Healthcare and Wearable Sensors Intelligent Personal Assistants Virtual Systems

Integrated Services

A globally integrated healthcare infrastructure

will change the business

Non-Traditional Care Settings Digital Infrastructure Outsourcing

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Molecular MedicineDiagnostics and Therapeutics at the Molecular Level


From providing reactive treatment after symptoms

appear to a proactive, predictive discipline that treats

and prevents disease before it occurs

Bio-Medical Knowledge Fusion Molecular Diagnostics Personalized Medicine

Theranostics

Medical imaging will complete its transformation from

a diagnostic tool to a key tool in delivering therapy

and tracking the progress of combatting disease

Computer-aided Diagnosis and Treatment Molecular Imaging Imaging for Drug Effectiveness

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Outline






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Impact of Materials

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Major technology driven trends:

Bio-engineering

Adaptronics

Interface between technology and living organisms is manageable

Bio-sensors make diagnostics fast and inexpensive

Embraces bio-logical materials, concepts and processes

Materials adapt to environmental conditions

Integrated sensors and actuators increase functionalities.

Consequent further development of mechatronics

Utilizes new effects, materials, processes

Relevance like microtechnology

Potential applications in all business areas of Siemens

Completely new technology for new applications

Nano-technology

Computatio-nal Materials

Science

CMS complements experimental methods

Multiscale Modeling will enable simulation of complex materials systems

Enables highly efficient materials development

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Services

Customer specific

e-services

Customer specific

e-services

Proactive services

Proactive services

Performanceorientated business

models

Performanceorientated business

models

Context centered services

Context centered services

Protection &securityservices

Protection &securityservices


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Service oriented product design

Advanced modelling and prediction

Automated diagnosis and decision support

IT-supported field service (e.g. augmented reality)

Technology supports MRO*

* Maintenance, Repair & Overhaul

Proactive ServicesAnticipating maintenance

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Self learning health

service systems with

remote diagnosis of

vital functions

Context based alarm

activation:

- During Jogging

elevated pulse rate is

ok, no alarm

- During sleeping period

elevated pulse rate

could mean danger –

alarm is activated

Context centered servicesSelf learning and personalised services

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Outline






... describes a development within the European tradition of relatively strong governments. Society in 2020 will place a high value on solidarity and permanence. It will also be willing to accept a lower level of economic growth – with all of the social consequences that this entails.

Szenario 1: „Equality, Freedom, Modesty"


Scenario 1: „Equality, Freedom, Modesty“

• Predominance of the state• Attitude to life: less is more, conscious life, „de-accelaration“• Values: solidarity, sustainability• Society: flexible forms of living, „young aged“, more modesty, provision for the future• Work: high flexibility at relative security, frequent changes of jobs, lifelong learning, less work compression, good work-life balance• Economy: slow growth, strong influence of governments on infrastructure and innovation funding• Technology/Innovation: acceptance only after thorough checks• Consumption/Lifestyle: utility more important than brand or status, booming do-it-yourself shops

... outlines a very dynamic economic development. The driving forces are the market and global competition. Society is flexible, exhibiting a willingness to accept higher levels of individual responsibility and greater social risks.

Szenario 2: „Speed, Networking, Risk “


Scenario 2: „Speed, Networking,Risk“

• Predominance of market and competition• Economy: strong driver of society, dynamic growth, permanent change and new chances, rapid consolidation of globalisation• Values: self realisation, personal responsibility, risk taking• Society: problem of „divide“, high social risks, but high social permeability, high importance of networks • Work: many „amorphous“ employment contracts, lower commitment to single employer, just-in-time-work• Lifestyle / awareness: speed, „always-on“, great experiences and consumption as values, brand names as important lifestyle elements • Technology/ Innovation: highly accepted, permanent innovation

Outline






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Today´s and tomorrow´s global challenges require innovative solutions

increasing and aging population

limited resources

global competition

urbanisation

demand for security

climatechange

minimal invasive therapy

smart home /senior home

telemedicine / home based care

mobile business

low-emission drives

fuel cells

telematics

solid statelamps

virtual companies

human computercooperation

biometrics

securitysolutions

renewable energies

decentralized energy supply

powermanagement

hydrogen-basedeconomy

smart devices / applications

smart/ ad hoc networks

intelligentsensors & actuators

molecular medicine

global link

CO2- separation

waste water usage

intermodal transportation

ubiquitous Inform. & communications

knowledge based enterprise

….

….

….

….

….

….

….

….….

….

….

….….

….

efficiencyenhancement

....

ambient intelligence

…. ….

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Today´s and tomorrow´s global challenges require innovative solutions

increasing and aging population

limited resources

global competition

urbanisation

demand for security

climatechange

minimal invasive therapy

smart home /senior home

telemedicine / home based care

mobile business

low-emission drives

fuel cells

telematics

solid statelamps

virtual companies

human computercooperation

biometrics

securitysolutions

renewable energies

decentralized energy supply

powermanagement

hydrogen-basedeconomy

smart devices / applications

smart/ adhoc networks

intelligentsensors & actuators

molecular medicine

global link

CO2- separation

waste water usage

intermodal transportation

ubiquitous Inform. & communications

knowledge based enterprise

….

….

….

….

….

….

….

….….

….

….

….….

….

efficiencyenhancement

....

ambient intelligence

…. ….► Holistic thinking and approaches► Interdisciplinary research ► Global cooperations including

public research► Dialog between industry,

science, government and society► The speed will not only set by what is technically

feasible but also what is economically and socially affordable

► “There is no free lunch“► Europe has a good chance to set the trends if it

“strengthens it´s strengths” and “smoothes out it´s

weaknesses”

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Information & CommunicationsInformation & Communications

ServicesServices

EnergyEnergy Automation & ControlAutomation & Control

TransportationTransportation

HealthcareHealthcare

…the best way of predicting the future

is to invent and to shape it yourself !

Prediction of the future is very difficult, yet new

opportunities abundantly exist, and therefore…

Thank You !

C O R P O R A T E T E C H N O L O G Y © Siemens AG, All Rights Reserved. Transportation Power Information & Communications Health Lighting Services Automation.

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