www.parliament.uk/commons-library | intranet.parliament.uk/commons-library | [email protected]| @commonslibrary BRIEFING PAPER Number CBP 7594, 19 May 2016 National Assembly for Wales Elections: 2016 By Lukas Audickas Contents: 1. Introduction 2. Party summaries 3. Candidates 4. Results 5. Turnout 6. Composition of the Assembly 7. Appendix
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By Lukas Audickas Wales Elections: 2016researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7594/CBP-7594.pdf · Seats and votes by party 1999 to 2016 Share of seats by party 1999
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2. Party summaries 9 Conservative 9 Labour 10 Liberal Democrats 11 Plaid Cymru 12 UK Independence Party 13 Green party 14 Other Parties 14
3. Candidates 15
4. Results 16 Percentage share of the vote, by party, 2011 and 2016 16 National Assembly for Wales elections: 5 May 2016 17 National Assembly for Wales elections: 5 May 2011 18
5. Turnout 19
6. Composition of the Assembly 20 Parties and regions 20 Ethnicity 20 Gender 20
7. Appendix 21 7.1 Constituency Ballot 21
Table 1: Constituency results - votes and turnout by constituency 21 Table 2: Constituency results - seats by majority (from highest to lowest percentage majority) 22 Table 3: Constituency results - party share of vote by constituency, and majority 23 Table 4: Change in share of the vote and turnout by constituency 24 Table 5: Constituency results - votes and shares by region and party 25 Table 6: Constituency ballot results - change in share of the vote by region 25 Table 7: Difference in turnout and party share of vote between constituency and regional ballots by region 25 Table 8: Constituency results - party share of vote by constituency 26 Table 9: Largest and smallest constituency majorities by party 27 Table 10: Constituencies with highest and lowest turnout in each region 27 Table 11: Highest and lowest shares of constituency vote 28
7.2 Regional ballot 29 Table 12: Regional results - votes and turnout by constituency 29 Table 13: Regional results - change in party share of vote and turnout by constituency 30 Table 14: Regional ballot results - votes and turnout by party and region 31 Table 15: Regional ballot results - party share of vote by party and region 31 Table 16: Regional ballot results - change in share of the vote by region 31
7.3 Assembly Members elected 32 Table 17: Seats won by seat type, party and region 32 Table 18a: Assembly Members elected, May 2016 33 Table 18b: Assembly Members elected, May 2016 34
Tables and underlying data in this briefing are available as Excel files via: http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7594
Summary Labour fell short of a majority winning 29 of the 60 seats in the National Assembly. The seats won by each party were as follows:
• Conservatives 11 • Labour 29 • Liberal Democrats 1 • Plaid Cymru 12 • UKIP 7
Labour’s share of the vote fell to 33.2%, from 39.6% in 2011, but it remained the largest party in the National Assembly. Plaid Cymru have overtook the Conservatives as second largest party with 20.7%, up from 18.6%. The Conservatives polled 20.0%, 3.8% points less than in 2011. The UK Independence Party’s share has risen by 10.4% points to 12.7%, compared to 2.3% in 2011. The Liberal Democrat’ share fell to 7.1% from 9.3%, and the Green Party polled 2.7%, up from 1.8%.
Average turnout across all the constituencies and regions was 45.4%, up by 4.0% points from 2011. The highest turnout was in Cardiff North (56.8%) and Brecon & Radnorshire (56.5). The lowest turnout was in Alyn & Deeside where 34.6% voted. Following the elections, the Assembly comprises 35 men and 25 women. The overall women representation have increased by one, compared to 2011. It is three fewer than in 2007 and five fewer than in the 2003, when there was an equal number of men and women elected.
There are currently two known ethnic minority Assembly Members. Mohammad Asghar was first elected for Plaid Cymru in 2007 and then for the Conservatives in 2011 and in 2016; Vaughan Gething was elected for Labour in 2011 and re-elected in 2016.
Results in Brief
(Constituency + Regional)
Votes
Conservative 451,162 23.8% 406,443 20.0%
Labour 751,612 39.6% 673,061 33.1%
Liberal Democrat 176,608 9.3% 143,669 7.1%
Plaid Cymru 352,706 18.6% 420,922 20.7%
UKIP 43,256 2.3% 259,176 12.7%
Green 34,163 1.8% 55,413 2.7%
Others 88,634 4.7% 75,439 3.7%
Seats 2011 2016 Change
Conservative 14 11 -3
Labour 30 29 -1
Liberal Democrat 5 1 -4
Plaid Cymru 11 12 +1
UKIP 0 7 +7
Green 0 0 0
Others 0 0 0
Turnout 41.4% 45.4% +4.0%
20162011
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2011 2016
Asembly members by gender
Men Women
6 National Assembly for Wales Elections: 2016
National Assembly for Wales seats and votes by party 1999 to 2016
1. Introduction The fifth set of elections to the National Assembly for Wales took place on Thursday, 5 May 2016, simultaneously with elections to the Scottish Parliament, elections to the Northern Ireland Assembly, local authority elections in England, London authority elections and Elections for Police and Crime Commissioners across England and Wales.
The system for electing members to the National Assembly is known as the Additional Member System. Voters are given two ballot papers. The first is used to elect each of 40 constituency Assembly Members (AMs) under the traditional first-past-the-post system. The second ballot paper is used to elect four AMs from each of five electoral regions. These additional members are elected so that the total representation from each geographical area, including those members elected under first-past-the-post, corresponds more closely to the share of the votes cast for each political party in the region.
2016 was the first Assembly election when all three UK-wide parties: Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrats lost seats. This was influenced by UKIP’s performance, securing seven seats, their first the National Assembly.
Labour maintained the status of the largest party in the Assembly, but fell one seat short of a working majority. This was Labour’s second worse performance, in terms of seats won, after 2007 when they won 24 seats (5 fever than in 2016).
The Conservatives, for the first time, did not increase their seat count loosing 3 seats. Plaid Cymru regained their status as second largest party in the Assembly, with 0.7% points of votes share and one more seat than the Conservative.
Measured by number of seats gained, it was the most successful Assembly election for UKIP and the worst for the Liberal Democrats. The Liberal Democrats have lost four Assembly Members and secured just one seat.
Data in this publication:
Data in this research paper for the number of votes cast in each ballot and for the electorates in each constituency and region has been provided by local authorities and may differ from figures reported in the media. Turnout is measured as the number of valid votes divided by the electorate. Some Returning Officers include rejected ballots in their calculation of turnout, leading to higher measures of turnout than those reported here.
Regional seats are assigned as follows: The votes for each party are summed, and divided by the number of seats the party has already gained in the constituencies plus one. The first seat is then awarded to the party with the most votes. The process is repeated, taking the newly assigned seat into account until all regional seats are filled.
8 National Assembly for Wales Elections: 2016
National Assembly for Wales constituency ballot winners: 2016
9 Commons Library Briefing, 17 May 2016
2. Party summaries Conservative
Change in share of the vote between 2016 and 2016 by region Conservative's share of votes and seats
-15% -10% -5% 0% +5% +10%+15%
All regions
South Wales West
South Wales East
South Wales Central
North Wales
Mid and West WalesConstituency ballot
Regional ballot
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1999 2003 2007 2011 2016
Vote share
% Seats
The Conservatives polled 20.0% of the total vote, 21.1% of the constituency vote and 18.8 % of the regional vote. They lost three seats, taking their total representation in the Assembly down to 11 AMs, making them the third largest party.
Their highest share of the vote was in North Wales. This was also the region where their share of the constituency vote decreased the most (by 4.6% points, from 30.7% in 2011 to 26.0%).
The Conservatives’ share of the constituency vote decreased most in Ynys Mon, where it fell by 17.7 % points, from 29.2% to 11.5%.
This was the first Assembly election when the Conservatives have not increased their vote share. Prior to 2016 they were the only party in the Assembly to have consistently increased the share of the vote in subsequent Assembly elections. From 1999 to 2011 their share of the
total vote increased at every Assembly election by an average of 2.5% points, before dropping by 3.8% points in 2016.
ConservativeMap 1: Conservative vote share
Constituency Regional Total Constituency Regional Total
Mid and West Wales 3 0 3 23.1% 20.6% 21.9%North Wales 2 1 3 26.0% 29.4% 24.1%South Wales Central 0 2 2 20.2% 18.3% 19.2%South Wales East 1 1 2 18.6% 17.2% 17.9%South Wales West 0 1 1 16.8% 15.0% 15.9%
Total 6 5 11 21.1% 18.8% 20.0%
Seats won Share of the vote
Conservative share of votes and seats Change in share of the vote between 2011 and 2016 by region
10 National Assembly for Wales Elections: 2016
Labour
LabourThis was the third Assembly election that Labour did not secure a working majority of seats.
Labour gained the highest share of the vote with 33.1% of the total vote, 34.7% of the constituency vote and 31.5% of the regional vote. Labour also won the highest number of seats (29), one fewer, compared with the 2011 election.
Labour’s share of the vote decreased by 7.6% points in the constituency ballot and by 5.4% in the regional ballot. Their highest share of the vote in any region was in South Wales West. This was also the region where their constituency vote share deceased the most, by 9.7% points, from 55.1% in 2011 to 45.4%.
Labour’s highest share of the vote in any constituency was in Ogmore, where they won 55.2% of the constituency ballot. The largest decline in support for Labour was reported in Rhondda constituency, where they lost 27.3% of constituency votes compared to 2011.
Map 2: Labour vote share
Change in share of the vote between 2016 and 2016 by region Labour's share of votes and seats
-15% -10% -5% 0% +5% +10%+15%
All regions
South Wales West
South Wales East
South Wales Central
North Wales
Mid and West Wales Constituency ballot
Regional ballot
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1999 2003 2007 2011 2016
Vote share % Seats
Change in share of the vote between 2011 and 2016 by region Labour share of votes and seats
Constituency Regional Total Constituency Regional Total
Mid and West Wales 1 2 3 17.6% 19.4% 18.5%North Wales 5 0 5 32.6% 28.1% 30.3%South Wales Central 7 0 7 40.7% 33.9% 37.3%South Wales East 7 0 7 39.8% 38.3% 39.1%South Wales West 7 0 7 45.4% 39.5% 42.5%
Total 27 2 29 34.7% 31.5% 33.1%
Seats won Share of the vote
11 Commons Library Briefing, 17 May 2016
Liberal Democrats
Change in share of the vote between 2011 and 2016 by region Liberal Democrat share of votes and seats
Liberal Democrats
The Liberal Democrats gained support in only two constituencies: Brecon & Radnorshire and Clwyd South. Their largest gain was in Brecon & Radnorshire, where their share of the vote increased by 9.3% points, from 43.1% in 2011 to 52.4%.
The Liberal Democrats received 7.1% of the total vote, 7.7% of the constituency vote and 6.5% of the regional vote, winning only one seat. Overall, this is 2.2% points less and four seats fewer than in 2011. This was the worst performance for the Liberal Democrats in any Assembly election so far.
It is a notable change from their long-term position in Wales, which had been relatively stable. In Assembly elections prior to 2011 the Liberal Democrats consistently polled between 13.0% and 13.5% of the total vote, before losing 4.0% points in 2011.
The largest reduction in the Liberal Democrats’ share of the vote took place in Newport East, where their share of the constituency vote fell by 11.9% points, from 19.1% in 2011 to 7.2%. Across the whole of the South Wales East region, which includes the Newport constituencies, the Liberal Democrats’ share of the constituency vote fell by 4.0% points.
Map 3: Liberal Democrat vote share
Constituency Regional Total Constituency Regional Total
Mid and West Wales 1 0 1 16.7% 10.9% 13.8%North Wales 0 0 0 4.6% 4.6% 4.6%South Wales Central 0 0 0 7.3% 6.4% 6.9%South Wales East 0 0 0 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%South Wales West 0 0 0 5.0% 6.5% 5.7%
Total 1 0 1 7.7% 6.5% 7.1%
Seats won Share of the vote
-15% -10% -5% 0% +5% +10% +15%
All regions
South Wales West
South Wales East
South Wales Central
North Wales
Mid and West WalesConstituency ballot
Regional ballot
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1999 2003 2007 2011 2016
Vote share
% Seats
Liberal Democrat
12 National Assembly for Wales Elections: 2016
Plaid Cymru
Plaid Cymru
Plaid Cymru polled 20.7% of the total vote, 20.5% of the constituency vote and 20.8% of the regional vote and became the second largest party after overtaking the Conservatives by 0.7% points.
They gained one seat, taking their total representation in the Assembly to 12 AMs. Plaid Cymru’s highest share of the vote in any region was in Mid and West Wales, where they polled 26.9% of total constituency vote.
The largest increase in regional vote share was recorded in South Wales Central region, where it rose by 7.2% points, from 13.7 in 2011 to 20.9%.
Plaid Cymru’s share of the constituency vote increased most in Blaenau Gwent, where it rose by 31.2% points, from 5.4% to 36.6%.
Map 4: Plaid Cymru vote share
-15% -5% +5% +15%
All regions
South Wales West
South Wales East
South Wales Central
North Wales
Mid and West WalesConstituency ballot
Regional ballot
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1999 2003 2007 2011 2016
Vote share
% Seats
Change in share of the vote between 2011 and 2016 by region Plaid Cymru share of votes and seats
Constituency Regional Total Constituency Regional Total
Mid and West Wales 3 1 4 26.9% 26.3% 26.6%North Wales 2 1 3 24.5% 12.6% 23.9%South Wales Central 1 1 2 18.6% 20.9% 19.7%South Wales East 0 1 1 16.3% 15.3% 15.8%South Wales West 0 2 2 15.2% 17.2% 16.2%
Total 6 6 12 20.5% 20.8% 20.7%
Share of the voteSeats won
13 Commons Library Briefing, 17 May 2016
UK Independence Party
Map 5: UK Independence Party vote share
UK Independence Party For the first time the UK Independence Party was elected to The National Assembly for Wales.
UKIP polled 12.7% of the total vote, 12.5% of the constituency vote, 13.0% of the regional vote, and won seven seats. Overall, this is 10.5% of vote. The best performance for UKIP in any Assembly election so far.
UKIP’s highest share of the vote in any region was in South Wales East, where they received 18.1%. UKIP did not field any constituency candidates in the 2011 election. They gained their highest share of the constituency vote (22.6%) in Torfaen constituency.
UKIP increased their share of the regional ballot in every region. Their regional vote share across Wales increased by 8.4% points from 4.6% in 2011 to 13.0%. Their strongest regional performance was in South Wales East, where they polled 17.8% of the regional vote.
Constituency Regional Total Constituency Regional Total
Mid and West Wales 0 1 1 10.8% 11.6% 11.2%North Wales 0 2 2 10.7% 12.5% 11.6%South Wales Central 0 1 1 9.8% 10.4% 10.1%South Wales East 0 2 2 18.0% 17.8% 8.9%South Wales West 0 1 1 14.0% 13.7% 13.8%
Total 0 7 7 12.5% 13.0% 12.7%
Seats won Share of the vote
-20% -10% 0% +10% +20%
All regions
South Wales West
South Wales East
South Wales Central
North Wales
Mid and West Wales Constituencyballot
Regional ballot
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1999 2003 2007 2011 2016
Vote share
% Seats
Change in share of the vote between 2011 and 2016 by region UKIP share of votes and seats
14 National Assembly for Wales Elections: 2016
Green party
Other Parties
The Green Party raised had candidates in a majority of constituencies and in all five regions, but did not win any seats.
They received 2.7% of the total vote, 2.5% of the constituency vote and 3.0% of the regional vote.
Overall, this is 0.9% points more than in 2011, the best performance of the Greens compared to any prior Assembly election.
The Green Party’s share of the regional vote fell from 3.4% to 3.0%. However, their share of constituency vote increased notably, from 0.2% in 2011 to 2.5%.
The Green Party performed the best in Ceredigion and Cardiff Central constituencies, with 6.2% and 5.9% of regional vote respectively.
Green
Other partiesOther political parties (not included in party summaries above) and independent candidates received 3.7% of the total vote, 1.0% of the constituency vote and 6.4% of the regional vote. None of these parties secured any constituency or regional seats.
The highest increase in share of regional votes for other parties (3.1%) was recorded in Mid and West Wales region. Whereas, in South Wales East the regional ballot share fell the most, by 3.3% points.
Other parties’ share of constituency votes generally did not increase in any of the regions. The highest decrease, of 7.7% points, was recorded in the South Wales East region.
None of the other individual political parties gained more than 1% of constituency vote.
The Abolish The Welsh Assembly Party, was the only other party to receive more than 1% of regional votes. They received 4.4% of total regional votes..
0%
10%
20%
1999 2003 2007 2011 2016
Green Party vote share
Change in share of the vote between 2011 and 2016 by region
-10% 0% +10%
All regions
South Wales West
South Wales East
South Wales Central
North Wales
Mid and West Wales
Constituency ballot Regional ballot
-10% 0% +10%
All regions
South Wales West
South Wales East
South Wales Central
North Wales
Mid and West Wales
Constituency ballot Regional ballot
Change in share of the vote between 2011 and 2016 by region
Constituency Regional Total
Mid and West Wales 3.1% 3.8% 3.4%North Wales 1.5% 3.1% 1.9%South Wales Central 2.8% 3.4% 3.1%South Wales East 2.4% 2.5% 2.5%South Wales West 2.5% 2.6% 2.5%
Total 2.5% 3.0% 2.7%
Share of the vote
Constituency Regional Total
Mid and West Wales 1.8% 7.3% 4.6%North Wales 0.1% 6.9% 3.5%South Wales Central 0.6% 6.7% 3.6%South Wales East 1.3% 5.4% 3.3%South Wales West 2.5% 5.5% 3.4%
3. Candidates Over 300 of regional and nearly 250 of constituency candidates stood for election to The National Assembly for Wales on 5 May 2016.
On average, across Wales there were 6.2 candidates per constituency. This is just above the UK average (6.1), comparing to the last general election in 2015.
Data collection1 The gender of candidates is not systematically recorded and data is only available from the third party sources. Information about National Assembly for Wales election candidates is collected using Democracy Club data. The gender of some candidates was assigned on the basis of their first name in absence of other information.
Gender by region The gender balance among regional and constituency candidates was roughly the same. From all the regional and constituency candidates around one-third (34%) were women.
The South Wales Central regions had the most proportional gender balance among candidates. There, around 41% of candidates were women. There was a similar gender balance was in the South Wales West region, where 61% of candidates were male. The largest gender disparity was recoded in the South Wales East region where 30% of candidates were women.
Gender by party The Wales Green Party had the most equal gender distribution among regional candidates. Half (50%) of the Green Party regional candidates were women. Labour Party had the highest number of women on its regional lists (60%).
Two-fifths (42%) of Green Party constituency candidates were females. Followed by 38% Liberal Democrats and 37% Labour’s candidates.
30% of UK Independence Party and around 34% of Conservative regional candidates were women.
The Conservative Party had the lowest proportion of female constituency candidates. Less than a quarter (23%) of their candidates were women.
1 Democracy Club (2016) Member of the National Assembly for Wales
4. Results The reference table below provides regional and constituency results for the National Assembly for Wales Election in 2016 and 2011. This compares regional and constituency ballot results by percentage share of vote.
For detailed results by party refer to “Party Summary” section (pp. 7-12)
Percentage share of the vote, by party, 2011 and 2016
Constituency Region All votes
Conservative 21.1% 18.8% 20.0%
Labour 34.7% 31.5% 33.1%
Liberal Democrat 7.7% 6.5% 7.1%
Plaid Cymru 20.5% 20.8% 20.7%
UKIP 12.5% 13.0% 12.7%
Green 2.5% 3.0% 2.7%
Others 1.0% 6.4% 3.7%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Constituency Region All votes
Conservative 25.0% 22.5% 23.8%
Labour 42.3% 36.9% 39.6%
Liberal Democrat 10.6% 8.0% 9.3%
Plaid Cymru 19.3% 17.9% 18.6%
UKIP 0.0% 4.6% 2.3%
Green 0.2% 3.4% 1.8%
Others 2.7% 6.7% 3.7%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Constituency Region All votes
Conservative -3.9% -3.7% -3.8%
Labour -7.6% -5.4% -6.5%
Liberal Democrat -2.9% -1.6% -2.2%
Plaid Cymru +1.3% +3.0% +2.1%
UKIP +12.5% +8.5% +10.5%
Green +2.3% -0.5% +0.9%
Others -1.7% -0.2% 0.0%
2016 Assembly election
2011 Assembly election
Change 2011-2016
17 Commons Library Briefing, 17 May 2016
The table below summarises the 2016 regional and constituency ballot results. This table also includes total number of candidates by party and seat distribution.
National Assembly for Wales elections: 5 May 2016
.
Candidates Votes % of total Seats won Change
Conservative 40 215,597 21.1% 6 0
Labour 40 353,865 34.7% 27 -1
Liberal Democrat 40 78,165 7.7% 1 0
Plaid Cymru 40 209,374 20.5% 6 +1
UKIP 38 127,038 12.5% 0 0
Green 36 25,202 2.5% 0 0
Others 14 10,139 1.0% 0 0
Total 248 1,019,380 100.0% 40
Candidates Votes % of total Seats won Change
Conservative 35 190,846 18.8% 5 -3
Labour 20 319,196 31.5% 2 0
Liberal Democrat 33 65,504 6.5% 0 -4
Plaid Cymru 59 211,548 20.8% 6 0
UKIP 20 132,138 13.0% 7 +7
Green 24 30,211 3.0% 0 0
Others 114 65,300 6.4% 0 0
Total 305 1,014,743 100.0% 20
Candidates Votes % of total Seats won Change
Conservative 75 406,443 20.0% 11 -3
Labour 60 673,061 33.1% 29 -1
Liberal Democrat 73 143,669 7.1% 1 -4
Plaid Cymru 99 420,922 20.7% 12 +1
UKIP 58 259,176 12.7% 7 +7
Green 60 55,413 2.7% 0 0
Others 128 75,439 3.7% 0 0
Total 553 2,034,123 100.0% 60
Total
Constituency ballot
Regional ballot
18 National Assembly for Wales Elections: 2016
The final reference table in this section looks at 2011 election results. It includes total number of candidates by party and seat distribution.
National Assembly for Wales elections: 5 May 2011
Candidates Votes % of total Seats won
Conservative 40 237,389 25.0% 6
Labour 40 401,677 42.3% 28
Liberal Democrat 40 100,259 10.6% 1
Plaid Cymru 40 182,907 19.3% 5
UKIP - - - 0
Green 1 1,514 0.2% 0
Others 16 25,507 2.7% 0
Total 177 949,253 100.0% 40
Candidates Votes % of total Seats won
Conservative 42 213,773 22.5% 8
Labour 20 349,935 36.9% 2
Liberal Democrat 25 76,349 8.0% 4
Plaid Cymru 20 169,799 17.9% 6
UKIP - * 43,256 4.6% 0
Green - * 32,649 3.4% 0
Others 115 * 63,127 6.7% 0
Total 222 948,888 100.0% 20
Candidates Votes % of total Seats won
Conservative 82 451,162 23.8% 14
Labour 60 751,612 39.6% 30
Liberal Democrat 65 176,608 9.3% 5
Plaid Cymru 60 352,706 18.6% 11
UKIP - * 43,256 2.3% 0
Green - * 34,163 1.8% 0
Others 131 * 88,634 4.7% 0
Total 399 1,898,141 100.0% 60Note: * Number of Regional UKIP and Green candidates is included in total count for others
Total
Constituency ballot
Regional ballot
19 Commons Library Briefing, 17 May 2016
5. Turnout Turnout is measured as the number of valid votes divided by the electorate.
The overall turnout across Wales in both the constituency and regional ballots was 45.4%, up by 4.0% points from 2011. The highest turnout was in Cardiff North and Brecon & Radnorshire, where 56.8% and 56.5% of the electorate cast valid ballots. The lowest turnout was in Alyn & Deeside, where 34.6% of eligible voters participated.
The region with the highest turnout was Mid and West Wales, with a turnout of 51.4% (2.8% points increase since 2011). The region with the lowest turnout was South Wales East, where turnout was 42.7% (4.2% points increase since 2011).
Constituencies within each region with the highest and lowest turnout
Region Constituency Turnout
Highest turnout
South Wales Central Cardiff North 56.8%
Mid and West Wales Brecon & Radnorshire 56.5%
North Wales Arfon 50.9%
South Wales West Gower 49.8%
South Wales East Monmouth 48.9%
Lowest turnout
South Wales Central Cynon Valley 38.2%
Mid and West Wales Dwyfor Meirionnydd 46.8%
North Wales Alyn & Deeside 34.6%
South Wales West Swansea East 35.7%
South Wales East Newport East 37.1%
Map 6: National Assembly for Wales - 2016 Turnout
Increase in turnout by region, 2011-2016
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8%
Mid and West Wales
North Wales
South Wales Central
South Wales East
South Wales West
Total
20 National Assembly for Wales Elections: 2016
6. Composition of the Assembly Parties and regions A majority of constituency seats in South Wales Central, South Wales East and South Wales West regions are held by Labour Members. This party won 21 out of 23 constituency seats in these areas. The remaining two seats are held by Plaid Cymru (Rhondda) and Conservatives (Monmouth).
Constituency seats in Mid and West Wales region is more diversely distributed: both Plaid Cymru and Conservatives secured three seats each. In Lianelli and Brecon & Radnorshire constituencies Labour and Liberal Democrats had the largest majorities.
Four of constituency seats in the North Wales region are held by Labour. Conservatives and Plaid Cymru have two seats each.
Regional seats are less dominated by Labour. UKIP has the highest number of regional seats (7), followed by the Plaid Cymru (6) and Conservatives (5). Labour had gained two regional seats.
Ethnicity There are currently two known ethnic minority Assembly members2.
Mohammad Asghar was first elected for Plaid Cymru in 2007 and was re-elected for the Conservatives in 2011 and in 2016. He became the first AM to cross the floor of the Assembly in December 2009.
Vaughan Gething was elected for Labour in 2011 and was re-elected in 2016. He is the second minority ethnic candidate to be elected to the Assembly.
Gender Following the elections, the Assembly comprises 35 men and 25 women. The overall women representation have increased by one, compared to 2011. It is three fewer than in 2007 and five fewer than in the 2003, when there was an equal number of men and women elected.
2 Ethnicity of Assembly Members is not systematically recorded. It is a self-defined factor,
and information about it is only available from third-party sources.
Map 7: National Assembly for Wales – 2016 Constituency seat winners
Assembly members by gender, 1999-2016
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
2016
2011
2007
2003
1999
Women Men
21 Commons Library Briefing, 17 May 2016
7. Appendix
7.1 Constituency Ballot Table 1: Constituency results - votes and turnout by constituency
CON LAB LD PC UKIP GRN Others Total Electorate Turnout Majority
Table 4: Change in share of the vote and turnout by constituency
2011 2016 Change CON LAB LD PC UKIP GRN Others
Mid and West WalesBrecon and Radnorshire 52.9% 56.5% +3.5% -7.9% -8.0% +9.3% -2.8% +7.1% +2.3% 0.0%Carmarthenshire East and Dinefwr 51.3% 53.7% +2.4% -5.2% -10.8% -2.0% +3.6% +11.7% +2.7% 0.0%Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
Table 13: Regional results - change in party share of vote and turnout by constituency
2011 2016 Change CON LAB LD PC UKIP GRN Others
Mid and West WalesBrecon and Radnorshire 52.8% 55.8% +3.0% -7.1% -3.2% +0.9% -0.1% +4.0% -0.6% +6.0%Carmarthenshire East and Dinefwr 51.3% 53.5% +2.2% -3.3% -6.7% -0.8% +3.3% +7.6% -1.3% +1.1%Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
Table 14: Regional ballot results - votes and turnout by party and region
Table 15: Regional ballot results - party share of vote by party and region
Table 16: Regional ballot results - change in share of the vote by region
CON LAB LD PC UKIP GRN Others Total Electorate Turnout
Mid and West Wales 44,461 41,975 23,554 56,754 25,042 8,222 15,832 215,840 426,632 50.6%North Wales 45,468 57,528 9,345 47,701 25,518 4,789 14,141 204,490 470,416 43.5%South Wales Central 42,185 78,366 14,875 48,357 23,958 7,949 15,443 231,133 494,758 46.7%South Wales East 33,318 74,424 6,784 29,686 34,524 4,831 10,524 194,091 455,078 42.7%South Wales West 25,414 66,903 10,946 29,050 23,096 4,420 9,360 169,189 392,105 43.1%All regions 190,846 319,196 65,504 211,548 132,138 30,211 65,300 1,014,743 2,238,989 45.3%
CON LAB LD PC UKIP GRN Others Total
Mid and West Wales 20.6% 19.4% 10.9% 26.3% 11.6% 3.8% 7.3% 100.0%
North Wales 22.2% 28.1% 4.6% 23.3% 12.5% 2.3% 6.9% 100.0%
South Wales Central 18.3% 33.9% 6.4% 20.9% 10.4% 3.4% 6.7% 100.0%
South Wales East 17.2% 38.3% 3.5% 15.3% 17.8% 2.5% 5.4% 100.0%
South Wales West 15.0% 39.5% 6.5% 17.2% 13.7% 2.6% 5.5% 100.0%
All regions 18.8% 31.5% 6.5% 20.8% 13.0% 3.0% 6.4% 100.0%
CON LAB LD PC UKIP GRN Others Total
Mid and West Wales -4.6% -3.1% -1.9% -0.5% +7.2% -0.3% +3.1% 0.0%
North Wales -4.6% -4.0% -1.3% +1.9% +7.5% +0.1% 0.0% -0.4%
South Wales Central -3.7% -7.1% -1.5% +7.2% +6.4% -1.7% +1.2% 0.8%
South Wales East -2.4% -7.3% -2.5% +3.2% +12.5% -0.2% +0.6% 3.9%
South Wales West -2.8% -6.9% -0.5% +3.4% +9.4% +0.1% -0.4% 2.2%
All regions -3.7% -5.4% -1.6% +3.0% +8.5% -0.5% -0.5% -0.3%
32 National Assembly for Wales Elections: 2016
7.3 Assembly Members elected Table 17: Seats won by seat type, party and region
Mid & West North South Wales South Wales South Wales Total
Wales Wales Central East WestConstituency seats
Conservative 3 2 0 1 0 6
Labour 1 5 7 7 7 27
Liberal Democrat 1 0 0 0 0 1
Plaid Cymru 3 2 1 0 0 6
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Green 0 0 0 0 0 0
Independent 0 0 0 0 0 0
All parties 8 9 8 8 7 40
Regional seats
Conservative 0 1 2 1 1 5
Labour 2 0 0 0 0 2
Liberal Democrat 0 0 0 0 0 0
Plaid Cymru 1 1 1 1 2 6
UK Independence Party 1 2 1 2 1 7
Green 0 0 0 0 0 0
Independent 0 0 0 0 0 0
All parties 4 4 4 4 4 20
All seats
Conservative 3 3 2 2 1 11
Labour 3 5 7 7 7 29
Liberal Democrat 1 0 0 0 0 1
Plaid Cymru 4 3 2 1 2 12
UK Independence Party 1 2 1 2 1 7
Green 0 0 0 0 0 0
Independent 0 0 0 0 0 0
All parties 12 13 12 12 11 60
Region
33 Commons Library Briefing, 17 May 2016
Table 18a: Assembly Members elected, May 2016
* Assembly Member immediately prior to 2016 election. Of the 60 AMs elected 37 had been members
Constituency Elected Member Party
Mid and West Wales
Brecon and Radnorshire * Kirsty Williams LD
Carmarthenshire East and Dinefwr Adam Price PC
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire * Angela Burns CON
Ceredigion * Elin Jones PC
Dwyfor Meirionnydd * Dafydd Elis-Thomas PC
Llanelli Lee Waters LAB
Montgomeryshire * Russell George CON
Preseli Pembrokeshire * Paul Windsor Davies CON
North Wales
Aberconwy * Janet Finch-Saunders CON
Alyn and Deeside * Carl Sargeant LAB
Arfon Sian Gwenllian PC
Clwyd South * Ken Skates LAB
Clwyd West * Darren Millar CON
Delyn Hannah Blythyn LAB
Vale of Clwyd * Ann Jones LAB
Wrexham * Lesley Griffiths LAB
Ynys Mon * Rhun Ap Iorwerth PC
South Wales Central
Cardiff Central * Jenny Rathbone LAB
Cardiff North * Julie Morgan LAB
Cardiff South and Penarth * Vaughan Gething LAB
Cardiff West * Mark Drakeford LAB
Cynon Valley Vikki Howells LAB
Pontypridd * Mick Antoniw LAB
Rhondda * Leanne Wood PC
Vale of Glamorgan * Jane Hutt LAB
South Wales East
Blaenau Gwent * Alun Davies LAB
Caerphilly Hefin David LAB
Islwyn Rhianon Passmore LAB
Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney Dawn Bowden LAB
Monmouth * Nick Ramsay CON
Newport East * John Griffiths LAB
Newport West Jayne Bryant LAB
Torfaen * Lynne Neagle LAB
South Wales West
Aberavon * David Rees LAB
Bridgend * Carwyn Jones LAB
Gower * Rebecca Evans LAB
Neath Jeremy Miles LAB
Ogmore Huw Irranca-Davies LAB
Swansea East * Mike Hedges LAB
Swansea West * Julie James LAB
34 National Assembly for Wales Elections: 2016
Table 18b: Assembly Members elected, May 2016
* Assembly Member immediately prior to 2016 election. Of the 60 AMs elected 37 had been members
Regional List Elected Member Party
Mid and West Wales Neil Hamilton UKIP
Mid and West Wales * Joyce Watson LAB
Mid and West Wales * Simon Thomas PC
Mid and West Wales Eluned Morgan LAB
North Wales * Mark Isherwood Con
North Wales Llyr Gryffudd PC
North Wales Nathan Gill Ukip
North Wales Michelle Brown Ukip
South Wales Central * David Melding Con
South Wales Central * Andrew Davies Con
South Wales Central Gareth Bennett UKIP
South Wales Central Neil McEvoy PC
South Wales East Mark Reckless UKIP
South Wales East David Rowlands UKIP
South Wales East * Mohammed Asghar Con
South Wales East Steffan Lewis PC
South Wales West * Suzy Davies Con
South Wales West * Bethan Jenkins PC
South Wales West Caroline Jones UKIP
South Wales West David Rhys Lloyd PC
BRIEFING PAPER Number CBP 7594 17 May 2016
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