Argentina’s History and Recent Growth: A Decomposition of Growth from 1991-2010 By: Elliot Charette University of Wisconsin - Superior
Dec 24, 2015
Argentina’s History and Recent Growth:
A Decomposition of Growth from 1991-2010
By: Elliot CharetteUniversity of Wisconsin - Superior
Historical analysis◦Natural resources and political system
Empirical analysis◦Empirical decomposition ◦Cobb-Douglas framework
Outline
Argentina◦ 1900-1930 Austria, Germany, France, and
Sweden◦ Better than Italy and Spain (measured by GNI)◦ Very productive agricultural sector
Advanced country/economy during this time
Historical Analysis
The Pampas!◦ Fertile land◦ Grain and pastures for cattle◦ Allowed for high volume of agricultural exports
6% of property owners owned 70% of the Pampas
Reasons for Growth and Wealth
End of the 1930s and early 1940s Unequal distribution of land
◦Land owners didn’t invest in industrial capital
Lack of industrial capital led to less competiveness in the global market
Imported European goods
Beginning of Decline
From the 1930s to 1976 Perón extends tariff protections, exchange
controls, and import licenses◦‘Protects’ domestic industry from global
competition◦1945 industry contributes more than
agriculture as a share of GDP
Protectionism
Adoption of more neoliberal reforms◦Aimed at creating more competition More efficiency
1990s◦Extreme liberalization of economy Cuts social programs and government
employees
1976 and Onwards!
1900-1930:Strong
Agriculture,Wealthy Country
1931-1976:Protectionism,
Declining Prosperity
1976 - 2010:Liberalization,
????
Summary of Historical Analysis
How much does each factor contribute to growth?◦Not much research on recent growth◦How much does total factor productivity
contribute to GDP? Data 1991-2010
◦Source: Penn World Table and World Bank
Empirical Analysis: Decomposition of Growth
Average Annual Growth Rates (%)
Time Period GDP per
capita
Labor force
participation
rate
Capital
per worker
Average
human
capital
Total Factor
Productivity
1991-20104.19 0.15
3.28
1.58
1.31
Contributions to per capita GDP growth (%)
Time Period GDP per
capita
Labor force
participation
rate
Capital
per worker
Average
human capital
Total Factor
Productivity
1991-2010100 3.65 19.60 37.70 39.06
Results
LFPR was a small factor contributing to GDP◦ Possibly because of small, constant pop growth
Capital contributed to 19% of growth Human capital was a large factor (37%!!!)
◦ High literacy rates◦ “Right to education”
Total factor productivity largest factor at 39%◦ Possibly liberalization?
More research needs to be done
Reasons for Each Growth Factor
Brennan, J. (2007). Prolegomenon to Neoliberalism: The Political Economy of Populist Argentina. Latin American Perspectives, 34.3. 49-66.
Giovagnoli, P. (2005). Estimating the Returns to Education in Argentina 1992-2002. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper. 1-47.
Gonzalez, G., Viego, V. (2011). The Argentine Failure From a Comparative Perspective: The Role of Total Factor Productivity. Revista De Historia Economica, 29.3, 301-326.
Hall, R., Jones, C. (1999). Why Do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker than Others? The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 114.1, 83-116.
Johns, M. (1992). Industrial Capital and Economic Development in Turn of the Century Argentina. Economic Geography 68.2, 188-204.
Rodriquez-Boetsch, L. (2005). Public Service Privatisation and Crisis in Argentina. Development in Practic, 15.3, 302-315.
Novick, M., Miguel L., Sarabia M. (2009). From Social Protection to Vulnerability: Argentina's Neo-liberal Reforms of the 1990s. International Labour Review 148.3, 235-252.
CIA World Factbook. Central Intelligence Agency, n.d. Retrieved from <https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ar.html>.
Zhu, X. (2012). Understanding China’s Growth: Past, Present, and Future. Journal of Economic Perspectives 26.4, 103-124.
Works Cited